1655 Chinese invasion of Japan

[trurle]

23 March, 1638, near the Edo castle .

The afternoon weather was fine, and cherry have just started to blossom. Mitsuhisa Shimazu, the heir of the powerful Satsuma Domain and the hostage of the Tokugawa Shogunate in Edo, was watching the arrival of the daily mail dispatch from the window of his mansion. His son, 5-years old Tsunahisa, was playing at nearby river slope, looked after by Sadamasa Ise, his grandfather and the retainer of young Mitsuhisa.
The messenger running to the direction of Mitsuhisa`s mansion make the heart of Mitsuhisa to throb.

- What happened? - raced his thoughts - Bad news from Arinaga Yamada? Well, the Shimabara Rebellion was firmly under control according to last dispatch, but may be these Christian fanatics made one more raid, this time targeting Satsuma forces? Is Arinaga alive? - he ran to the front door.

The messenger gave out the pack adorned with the white ribbon of death. Mitsuhasa opened the wrapping while still handing out the reward coin.
The letter was brief.
"The body of your father, Tadatsune Shimazu, weakened by the long illness, have failed 7 March this year. I congratulate you with the ascension to the position of the head of Satsuma Domain and hope to see you soon in Kagoshima Castle to make an official submission".

A few minutes later:
-Tsuna-kun, hurry! - Mitsuhisa shouted - let`s return home!
His son ran merrily on father`s voice, splashing at the shallow stream. The were embracing soon.
-Son, i must go back to Satsuma now. Listen the grandfather, and see you next year..the small Tsunahisa started crying.

Mitsuhisa did not realized at the moment he is not going to see his only son ever again. The cool water of early spring have already activated the sleeping influenza viruses in the feet of his son, and he will succumb to cerebral complications before seeing his 6th birthday.

P.S. IOTL, the Tadatsune Shimazu, the previous head of Satsuma Domain, the conqueror of Ryukyu Kingdom, have died exactly one month later, 7 April 1638. This is the primary POD (point of divergence) of this ATL (alternative timeline)

 

[darthfanta]

What Chinese?You mean the Manchus?I would laugh so hard if they could even cross into Japan.In otl,they had so much trouble just dealing with the Zhengs that they opted to abandon the coasts for a significant period of time rather than build a navy and deal with them.Apart from busy dealing with the Zhengs,they are also fighting the Ming Emperor in the South West.

 

[XFE]

Rooting for the Qing of course
I predict that the Qing would do a poor job of invading though. After that, people would probably just stop fighting and forget that the war ever happened. the Qing do not have the resources or interest to conquer Japan, while Japan doing anything to China in this time period? No, just no.

 

[trurle]

Rooting for the Qing of course
I predict that the Qing would do a poor job of invading though. After that, people would probably just stop fighting and forget that the war ever happened. the Qing do not have the resources or interest to conquer Japan, while Japan doing anything to China in this time period? No, just no.

A sort of. I imagine Qing launching a sort of limited and low-risk yet potentially profitable raid to plunder Japan embroiled in the civil war. Of course, limited conflict can always spiral out of control because of wrong assumptions about enemy or own forces.

 

[zeppelinair]

What is Joseon's position on the matter?

 

[trurle]

12 April 1638, at the gates of the Hara Castle, Nagasaki.

Mitsuhisa Shimazu, a new leader of the Satsuma Domain, is inspecting his little army in the aftermath of of the Hizen Domain troops making a breakthrough through the Christian rebels defenses. Arinaga Yamada is making some explanation.

- Therefore, the cannons were absolutely ineffective. I suspect we were using a wrong ammunition. Dutch bastards gave us the anti-shipping rounds. Furthermore, these cannons are named "field guns" - whatever it mean. Most likely Dutch have more effective, larger and specialized siege engines. - Yamada pointed out to the small muzzle of cannon.
- So the problem is purely tactical. We were using a wrong tools in the wrong place. Actually, this campaign is full of anomalies. We have a numerical superiority, but cannot achieve a good troops concentration. We have weapons, melee skill, human quality and armour qualitative advantage, but using them all in wrong manner. Enemy slingers and improvised stone-throwers were more effective compared to our cannons.
- Well, a bit exaggerated outline. Our armour is rarely penetrated. But yes, we have too much wounded for such a petty enemy. Organizational problems to blame. Not enough suppressive fire, and most of Samurai troops just stay idle at any given moment.
- So let me conclude. You expect the siege to end within few days right? In this case, not much point for me to return to Satsuma now. If alleged conspirators waited for a month, few days does not change anything. Your squad support would be more important than early return. Now give me the slot in the formation. We already discussed, small risk now, and less risk to receive a knife in back next year.
- Fine. Take your place. At the centre of the squad, right of banner. I see the messenger is already running here, it must be our time to let some blood.

P.S. IOTL, Mitsuhisa Shimazu arrived to Kyushu after Shimabara Rebellion was already suppressed.

 

[trurle]

What is Joseon's position on the matter?

Joseon`s Korea has no opinion yet. But in future some actions peripheral to main storyline are expected.

 

[zeppelinair]

Joseon`s Korea has no opinion yet. But in future some actions peripheral to main storyline are expected.

Wouldn't Korea's actions be quite central to the TL though? The Chinese need to go through Korea for an invasion of Japan, particularly when their navies are probably not at their best.

 

[trurle]

Wouldn't Korea's actions be quite central to the TL though? The Chinese need to go through Korea for an invasion of Japan, particularly when their navies are probably not at their best.

Joseon`s Korea was in quite cornered state during the period i depict. Severe internal reforms were failing to match the ascendant Qing Chinese (as evident by lost campaign against Qing in 1636, resulting in formal submission of Joseon to Qing), and Russian forces will start to pillage northern Korean borders since 1643. Looking OTL, some detachments of elite Joseon musketeers are likely to accompany Qing expeditions.
About the naval routes: Although main route is passing through Korea and Tsushima, alternative invasion and trade route of Japan in 17th century passed through Taiwan and Ryukyu islands.

 

[raharris1973]

I don't think Korea is in a position to resist a Qing initiative against Japan, and probably wouldn't want to.

Even if the results of any Qing invasion are unimpressive, the Qing could walk away with exclusive control of the Ryukyus or Sakhalin

 

[trurle]

1 September 1640, the trade square before the Kagoshima Castle.

The normally docile atmosphere of the square was buzzing with excitation, hope and despair. The normally dominant rows of foodstuffs were neglected, and customers were crowding around few stores selling pickaxes, ropes, buckets, shovels and everything even remotely related to mining.
-Gold! Gold! - was heard everywhere.
Mitsuhisa Shimazu has turned back from the window.
- We have a full-fledged gold rush now. Need more patrols to detect a private mining attempts. At this point, Shogunate would soon know. Sadamasa Ise, your opinion?
- We will be soon recalled to Edo. I`ll try to play a bureaucracy though. Simulated illness, internal security issues, swollen rivers and broken bridges, lost messengers..you know the standard list. May be we can buy an additional year to extract as much revenue as possible.
- One more possibility. We know the next dispatch will go through sea route, along Takanabe Domain coast. He may encounter..well, Wokou pirates.
- It is severe risk. Understood, we have a contacts with Zheng Zhilong people.

P.S. IOTL, gold discovery in Kagoshima in 1640 is historical fact. At least three mines were opened in 1640-1642. Does it resulted in gold rush or not, is unknown. Satsuma domain leaders never tried to do overly risky moves against Shogunate IOTL though. But in ATL with Mitsuhisa Shimazu only son dead due disease (and therefore no closely related hostage in Edo) plus his limited combat experience at siege of Hara Castle..he tends to act risky and his loyality lay closer to Satsuma rather than Edo.

 

[zeppelinair]

Joseon`s Korea was in quite cornered state during the period i depict. Severe internal reforms were failing to match the ascendant Qing Chinese (as evident by lost campaign against Qing in 1636, resulting in formal submission of Joseon to Qing), and Russian forces will start to pillage northern Korean borders since 1643. Looking OTL, some detachments of elite Joseon musketeers are likely to accompany Qing expeditions.
About the naval routes: Although main route is passing through Korea and Tsushima, alternative invasion and trade route of Japan in 17th century passed through Taiwan and Ryukyu islands.

There were Russians in northern Korea?? I really didn't know that. I thought Koreans simply accompanied the Qing in anti-Russian expeditions along northern Manchuria?

 

[XFE]

I don't think Korea is in a position to resist a Qing initiative against Japan, and probably wouldn't want to.

Even if the results of any Qing invasion are unimpressive, the Qing could walk away with exclusive control of the Ryukyus or Sakhalin

Didn't the Qing already control Sakhalin?

 

[trurle]

There were Russians in northern Korea?? I really didn't know that. I thought Koreans simply accompanied the Qing in anti-Russian expeditions along northern Manchuria?

I used exactly these expeditions as part of estimation of spread of Russian traders/raiders. The battles were around strongholds, actual spread of traders/raiders was much wider. According to
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Покорение_Сибири
timeline, Russian did not hesitate to act as far as thousand kilometers from the nearby base.

 

[Tredecimus]

So... what will be the casus belli for a Qing invasion of Japan?

 

[TC9078]

So... what will be the casus belli for a Qing invasion of Japan?

Maybe they will make the excuse that Japan hasn't been paying proper tribute like it should be and go to war to force them back into vassalage?

 

[Count Valerian]

What Chinese?You mean the Manchus?I would laugh so hard if they could even cross into Japan.In otl,they had so much trouble just dealing with the Zhengs that they opted to abandon the coasts for a significant period of time rather than build a navy and deal with them.Apart from busy dealing with the Zhengs,they are also fighting the Ming Emperor in the South West.

I see a Trafalgar moment incoming for Japan a few years down the line. The Tokugawa might even abandon isolationism, or even try and seize any nearby islands that could be used as stepping-stones for future invasions.

 

[darthfanta]

Maybe they will make the excuse that Japan hasn't been paying proper tribute like it should be and go to war to force them back into vassalage?

Probably is that the Qing Dynasty really didn't have much of a navy at the time,and as I've mentioned,they would be spending most of their energy in 1655 on dealing with Ming Dynasty remnants,like those in South-West China(e.g. Emperor Yongli) and the Zhengs on Taiwan.

I see a Trafalgar moment incoming for Japan a few years down the line. The Tokugawa might even abandon isolationism, or even try and seize any nearby islands that could be used as stepping-stones for future invasions.

How good was a Japanese navy?At any rate,I really don't see any incentives by the Manchus to conduct such a venture unless for some reason the Japanese went Wokou again.

 

[Tredecimus]

I see a Trafalgar moment incoming for Japan a few years down the line. The Tokugawa might even abandon isolationism, or even try and seize any nearby islands that could be used as stepping-stones for future invasions.

That is, if they lose.

Otherwise, it'll just reinforce their belief that they're a superior people.

 

[trurle]

Ok, right now a small update..
15 May 1642, Taiwan, trade post near fort Zeelandia

The person of unclear gender and age, hiding his face in shadow of his hat, is speaking in low voice to the wooden lattice.

- The information is absolutely reliable. The monetary flow cannot be explained by any other reason. The visits of Koxinga to see his mother-line relatives is just the ruse. He acting on behalf of his father, transferring gold to Taiwan and then to the Ming loyalist network. In exchange, Zheng Zhilong have organized that "pirate" raids on some ships around Kyushu. The leader of Satsuma domain for some reasons can not conceive another child, and he rightly expect his clan will be deprived of all rights on domain, and all his followers will become ronin after his death. The pirate raids give him enough excuse to do not report to Edo immediately. My people say the preparation for the full scale war are underway when the temper of Edo lords will ran out regardless of any excuses.

- Satsuma fool will be crushed - voice from the lattice responded.

- Yes, if somebody will not help him in Edo. The talks in several swordmanship academies are not very sympathetic to the Shogun.

- And how much gold is stored between Koxinga visits? I need a firm estimate for amount and the timing of the next transfer.

P.S. I think this dialog answer the question about possible casus belli for the Qing.. with de-facto alliance between Zheng on Taiwan and Satsuma domain, Qing can think the Satsuma may be a weak point among their enemies. Of course, if somebody leak the appropriate proof to them and help with the transportation..