1640: The Ottomans Go Extinct

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Whiteshore, Aug 17, 2019.

  1. Whiteshore Defender of Myrcella Baratheon

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    Historically, the Ottoman Dynasty came close to extinction in 1640 when Murad IV died and he reportedly was about to execute his brother Ibrahim (who became Sultan after his death) before his death, so what happens next if Ibrahim had been executed before Murad IV's death? AFAIK, the Girays would take over the Ottoman Empire if the Ottomans had gone extinct, but how stable would their rule be? What would an "Ottoman Empire" ruled by the Girays look like? Do the enemies of the Ottoman Empire take advantage of this?
     
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  2. Wendell Wendell

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    I doubt that Giray rule, if actually tenable, would go uncontested, both within the Empire and beyond it.
     
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  3. Whiteshore Defender of Myrcella Baratheon

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    What challenges to the Empire do you expect to be in the immediate period after the Ottomans go extinct and why?
     
  4. Ivan Lupo Well-Known Member

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    Since the Habsburg Empire is struggling against most of Europe at the moment, it wouldn't be able to take immediate advantage of any upheaval. However, I do believe a lot of the Balkan regions would immediately attempt to break free from the Turkish yolk and more than a few would succeed. The PLC would be best positioned to help facilitate this, maybe not able to take these regions for themselves but set up PLC-friendly client states, so perhaps Hungary, Wallachia, and Moldova become buffer states.
     
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  5. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire Gone Fishin'

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    Poland alone has no resources to do this. They would fail horribly. By the 1640s, Russia is their biggest threat.
     
  6. Whiteshore Defender of Myrcella Baratheon

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    What about the Safavids? Could they take advantage of this or not?
     
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  7. Kaiser Julius Well-Known Member

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    PLC were actually friendly with the Crimea and Adil Giray was even on the ballot to be King of Poland.
     
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  8. Kaiser Julius Well-Known Member

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    Hungary doesn't fall for one thing and they might try to retake Transylvania.
     
  9. Jan Olbracht Well-Known Member

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    Not during 1640s. It is a time when king Władysław IV started making plans of Turkish War and he even wanted Russia as ally against Ottomans. His plans were obviously unpopular and their most notable result was biggest Cossack uprising PLC ever faced, but still, at the Russia is not seen as biggest threat for PLC.
     
  10. Jan Olbracht Well-Known Member

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    Władysław IV was so friendly towards Crimean Khanate that he planned to conquer it. And having totally peaceful relations with Crimean Khanate is something impossible. If you have peace with Crimea that means that horde ravaging your country is just smaller than it used to be ;)
     
  11. Kaiser Julius Well-Known Member

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    My guess is Mehmet IV (for both) reign is uninterrupted by Islam III as he's given the Crimean Khanate. BTW I can't find a Giray family tree.
     
  12. Metaverse Banned

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    With such an instability in the Ottomon Empire, I think Balkans including Greece could be reconquered by an European power in the vicinity like Hungary or HRE/Germany. If they do so, the zeal about conquering back Constantinople could be lesser considering they already have their Catholic holy cities in Germany and Italy.

    If an Orthodox power like Bulgaria or Russia does it, then a potential reconquest of Constantinople could be on their agenda.
     
  13. Whiteshore Defender of Myrcella Baratheon

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    And Mesopotamia is going to become Safavid territory?
     
  14. Metaverse Banned

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    Mesopotamia could face a power vacuum for a few years. Safivids who would be observing these could mobilize to take charge of the lands without any strong ruling power like Syria, Levant and Egypt. The Arabs were quite disunited by then to singlehandedly rise to form a dynasty again. It was too long after an Arab power existed.

    But if the Catholic Holy Roman Empire/Greater Germany gets the whole Balkans, their eyes would immediately fall on the Levant too, to take what is today Syria, Lebanon and Israel along with Egypt, as a part of Holy conquests. The attitudes of the Catholic Empire on the Native Arab Muslims and Jews would decide what happens next.
     
  15. Wendell Wendell

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    We could see local strongmen assert independence, and/or pressure applied by Russia, Poland, and Persia among others. Perhaps someone of prominence who is distantly related to the last sultan will attempt to gain power.
     
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  16. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire Gone Fishin'

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    The Safavids already made peace in 1639 after 16 years of uninterrupted war. It is 36 years of war if you see the 1618-1623 era as a short truce.
     
  17. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire Gone Fishin'

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    Literally zero chance
     
  18. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire Gone Fishin'

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    Also zero chance
     
  19. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire Gone Fishin'

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    It won't go uncontested but if it can get the military behind it then half the work is done. Getting the Janissaries to support isn't hard by the 17th century.
     
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  20. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire Gone Fishin'

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    Some governors being dicks and not recognize the Giray regardless. That's it.