1620: Nurchai dies... Who replaces the Ming Dynasty?

WI the first Manchu Emperor dies while he is still a child? The Mancus wouldn't be as united or might not even become a lasting dynasty.

If the Manchus don't invade when they do, would the Ming survive or would it be replaced, if so by who?

Also, in twenty years when the Russians go west, where will they stop? Could they conquer the Manchus and gain a pacific port nearly 200 years early?
 
Ming was not replaced by the Manchus, but by Li Zicheng. The Mings would still get deposed by such a rebellion, they were literally making a fool of themselves through their inept leadership.
 
Ming was not replaced by the Manchus, but by Li Zicheng. The Mings would still get deposed by such a rebellion, they were literally making a fool of themselves through their inept leadership.

Would Li be able to hold onto power though? After all, his reign in Beijing was a disaster.
 
Would Li be able to hold onto power though? After all, his reign in Beijing was a disaster.

Yeah he had trouble with Ming Loyalists in the first place, which is why I thought the Ming family not the particular emperor that was killed might survive. But was Li inept or jsut surrounded by enemies?
 
Even without Nurhaci, don't count the Manchus out. With the Ming Dynasty on the verge of collapse, invasion is going to still look pretty damn tempting even without their leader. After all the Manchus had done it before in the 12th century with the Jin Dynasty. In TTL they might follow that route, or simply come in, steal everything that isn't nailed down, and get the hell out of dodge...

At any rate assuming that the Manchus don't subjugate all of China, I'd wager the Ming dynasty crumbles and is replaced with another Native Dynasty probably centered around Nanjing. Prehaps under the leadership of Coxinga?
 
Yeah he had trouble with Ming Loyalists in the first place, which is why I thought the Ming family not the particular emperor that was killed might survive. But was Li inept or jsut surrounded by enemies?
I always got the impression that Li Zicheng was a bit like Gaston from Beauty And The Beast, if that makes any sense. He was painted as a dashing rebel figure by his admirers, but he wasn't exactly the brightest or most refined and wasn't too picky about who his advisers were, nor did he always make the best political decisions (such as being a dick to the remnant Ming garrisons in the north).
 

Thande

Donor
Here's a thought: the Jurchen/Manchus originally called themselves the "Later Jin" dynasty (obviously evoking the earlier Jurchen-founded Jin Dynasty from the 12th century) which alienated many Han who (accurately) saw it as a resumption of foreign rule. I believe it was Nurhaci's son who renamed them the Qing, a more neutral term and helped restrict Han nationalism and Ming restorationism to a few small groups. Without him, it's likely the Manchu would still invade, but we might just see a restricted Later Jin dynasty in the north and some sort of Han dynasty in the south - though whether it would be a continuing Ming or something else is open to debate.
 
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