1618-1648

Habsburgs win and in time they build a centralised monarchy in german space.
So no war of Austrian succesion and no Seven Years' War.
I wonder what are the changes in such case?
Would we still see a french revolution or a partitioned Poland?
 
French Revolution is likely to be butterflied away, provided Louis XIV grows up differently. Partitions of Poland are basically caused by a strong Russia, a strong north German state, and the Habsburgs focusing on their domains.
 
a centralised monarchy in german space.

Sounds like great science fiction!

Unfortunately, I don't remember enough about the Thirty Years War (it did go on rather a long time!) to be able to say much useful

Presumably if the Habsburgs win, the Swedes lose? What about the French?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Before we do so large leap ahead in time, let's become a little bit more concrete ...

Habsburgs win

Fine. But: Against whom?
You know, the TYW was a sequence of several completely different conflicts.
Already OTL shows that it makes a lot of difference how a peace is constructed.

For instance, do you suggest ...

  • ... the "Winter King" is driven out, and all others live happily ever after?
  • ... the "Winter King" is driven out, and the Emperor wins against Denmark?
  • ... the "Winter King" is driven out, the Emperor (somehow) finishes the conflict with Denmark, and manages to form a large alliance in the Empire against Sweden?
  • ... otherwise?

Moreover, there are some other aspects you should specify what you assume in your scenario.

  • If Sweden doesn't intervene, why?
  • If France doesn't intervene, why?
  • How does the Swedish-Polish conflict end?
  • How does the Dutch Independence Movement end? Does Habsburg win there as well? If so, how?
  • How do French and Habsburg influence in Italy develop?


Otherwise, I'd love to continue this discussion when you've given a few more details ...
 
Before we do so large leap ahead in time, let's become a little bit more concrete ...



  • If Sweden doesn't intervene, why?
  • If France doesn't intervene, why?
  • How does the Swedish-Polish conflict end?
  • How does the Dutch Independence Movement end? Does Habsburg win there as well? If so, how?
  • How do French and Habsburg influence in Italy develop?

I know, i know its basically a big uknown to me too :)
Lets start with what i wanted as result.
So a german centralised kingdom with no protestant principalities able to opose to Habsburgs in their quest to have what french kings achieved.
Basically erase Prusia from history.

They quickly win versus Boemian nobility.
They make a compromise to keep the religion and the Habsburg keeps the crown.
Now why would Danmark and others still come in? well ...

Or we can make Sweden defeated by Poland, the king dies...
Danmark gets owned fast.
North german protestantism survive as religios comunity but the princes lose they status.
They are replaced with protestant guvernors.

France tries to change the tides but gets owned on battlefield.
Netherland-Holland would still gain independence because they are under spanish line of Habsburgs but maybe a bit later?

So Germany will replace France place as continental hegemon.
This might eliminate the anglo-french wars?
Alow a french Luisiana to develop and practically make USA a lot smaller and reduced to an Australia status type dependent of mother country.

Based on the new power found in center of Europe.
Habburg dinasty still lose Spain later.
They make Poland another kingdom part of HRE with a Habsburg king.
This will block any russian influence till much later maybe?

What will happen with Habburg push versus otomans in south europe/balcan area?
If i remember well serbs revolted when austrian troups seized Belgrade and all the story ended with them taking refuge a bit north being colonised inside the kingdom of Hungary disturbing the etnic balance.
Same time Kosovo emptied of serbs was colonised with muslim albanians.

Would any german-russian compromise be posible much later ~ Poland partition and natzi-soviet cases?
With Sweden/Holland/England/France+Russia on 1 side and Poland/all the german space/Italy divided but under Habburg rule on oposite side?
Would we have the sides from the world war 1 much earlier?
With Poland controling what sweden had in the Great Northern War?
If Habsburg win in germany.A german king in Poland will block Russia rise as the strongest otoman enemy?
 
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So a german centralised kingdom with no protestant principalities able to opose to Habsburgs in their quest to have what french kings achieved.
Basically erase Prusia from history.

Erasing Prussia (as we know it) is quite easy at such an early stage.
Don't forget that the fiercest enemy to what French kings had achieved were not only Protestants, but Bavaria.
Actually, I'd say Bavaria was the biggest obstacle for Ferdinand in his hereditary plans.
Therefore, Bavaria (and other insubordinate Catholic principalities, like Palatinate-Neuburg) are natural collaborators with France.
Go figure how Austria can win a war against them which in reality they lost with them at their side ...


They quickly win versus Boemian nobility.
They make a compromise to keep the religion and the Habsburg keeps the crown.

Why should they grant religious freedom?
That's a big constraint in the power of a monarch, even "as French kings had achieved".
Anyway, this already makes clear that you need a different personality in Ferdinand II. at least, if not a completely different trend in thinking.



Now why would Danmark and others still come in? well ...

Because they still have power interests?
Don't believe the fliers of 400 years ago that the war was about religion ...
Well, and concerning freedom of religion of the princes and of the people, there were quite a lot of triggers of conflict in the Northern half of Germany (Magdeburg, Halberstadt, Bremen, Oldenburg, ...)




Or we can make Sweden defeated by Poland, the king dies...

You mean Gustav Adolphus falls in Poland?
That's quite possible, given his courage in combination with his myopia ...

And it would definitely create a major change in the course of events. This is worth pursuing!

The crucial question is whether without him, Sweden would still intervene in Germany. I would tend to say "no", as this was a really venturesome plan. However, remember how smoothly Sweden could continue the war after his actual death.




North german protestantism survive as religios comunity but the princes lose they status.
They are replaced with protestant guvernors.

I don't understand that completely.
You want to deprive of the princes their right to be Protestants, which they had been acknowledged already a century before by the Emperor and the other princes?
Or you want to dispossess them of their hereditary claims, which are beyond doubt?

This sounds completely revolutionary, even more than the Emperor's actual plans (like re-sacralization of bishoprics which had long been incorporated into Protestant principalities). This rather seems to be the project "how to turn a Thirty Years War into a Sixty Years War" ...

More to the point, I think the Emperor cannot win over all princes at a time.
And of course, the princes are not stupid; they understand what the Emperor may be up to. So he cannot deal with them "in a row".

I can only see princes letting privileges "slip away", or give them away while they need support in more serious conflicts. You won't achieve a completely centralist Empire by 1650 with a PoD in 1618; this requires a bit more patience.
It seems possible that we can get on that track though; but I think that the Emperor will need the support of some of the princes. In particular, I think Austria cannot do much better than IOTL without an alliance with the Elector of Saxony in the short run.
In the long run, there cannot be an Empire completely under Catholic rule (and a couple of Protestant cities - don't forget them!). Whether the Emperor or the Princes or some Diet will have the power in their hands, they have to deal with different creeds - and I also think it's to late to prevent Calvinist princes by force or by law.




France tries to change the tides but gets owned on battlefield.

One suggestion: France was occupied with internal problems for a long time (Hugenots ...).
Once they start turning their attention to the East, they might be satisfied if they can expand their influence in Northern Italy by far (in addition to minor border corrections in Lotharingia, of course). In that case, they would not necessarily enter the war.


You would then have to deteriorate France's internal problems and change the complications in Italy (a different "War of Mantuan Succession").
The most important point, however, would be to keep the Emperor too busy to do much against France in Italy. IOTL, he intervened although he couldn't really afford that ...





Netherland-Holland would still gain independence because they are under spanish line of Habsburgs but maybe a bit later?

You want a split in the Habsburg family?
That sounds somewhat promising for your goals as well.
IOTL, the two Habsburg branches didn't always have interest aligned to one another, but they almost always agreed on some joint policy. This is because they thought of themselves as rulers with a claim to universal power in Europe which could but be achieved together.

If there is a serious split between these two families (one bad person doesn't suffice!) this might inspire the Emperor to pursue more realistic goals, and perhaps focus on the Empire proper. IOTL it weakened the Emperor considerably that he engaged in areas with Spanish influence (Netherlands, Milan).

However, even if the rulers of the Netherlands are completely unrelated to the Emperor, he would still be in the disagreeable situation that he would have to enforce allegiance from the Lord of that country; and in particular, he would have to take sides who he understands as that. In addition, without Spain Austria will lack a strong defender of the Rhineland against the revolutionary Netherlands, as well as France.





Just a couple of comments to your suggestions.
You take your pick ... ;)
 
Thanks.
Never say never :)
I didnt imagined that result "over night" as 1650.
Right about many reasons why cant be so.
So i guess i have to turn my atention way earlier to change the roles of France and Germany in history.

About 1 ruler for all germans and Bavaria.
Well i was thinking only at protestant north area.
Military weakness translated in political loses for them but the population will not be forced to convert.
Protestants lose posibility to have an army.
Im not sure if any south will opose much east Habs projects(expanding over otomans and rule of Poland)

About external factors lets say all are some how blocked.
Dont know what chances are to weaken the north rulers by suporting towns and peasantry against protestant nobility(i know its a bit crazy to think a Habsburg will do so)

I was thinking of religious freedom as a way to divide and conquer.
As we know change the faith of peoples is harder than to change their rulers.
Im after a political unity not religios one.
Austrian line give to their universal rule claim.
So they give up the claim as emperors of romans.

If they falow the real politik and suport Holland vs Spain.
This might give them some protestand suport or eliminate some of the oposition to them?

What if they even make Danmark or Sweden fight the protestans in german space for North Sea area?
Protestans wil be caught with no suport in the midle of other protestant countries like Danmark and Sweden and Habsburg Austria.
In time the protestant rules will have to make choice: either turn to emperor for help or accept foreign rule meaning equal evil.
If they accept foreign rule, population "will" turn to emperor for help...

About Bavaria or Saxony.They magically get lucky and the rulling house extinguish and they get the lucky card, or a marriage...
Or War of the Austrian Succession when king of Bavaria was close to lose his kingdom.

So the road to a centralised state can be seen from 1740 till lets say 1772.
Some how i have to imagine the road to a german revolution also and a crisis point to alow such an explosion of tensions.
 
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