1548: Mary Stuart captured

August 1548, ship carrying six years old Queen of Scots to France is wrecked on English coast as result of powerful storm. From English perspective this accident is seen as act of God. Young Queen survived and is taken to London. What will happen now? Likely Mary of Guise is forced to agree for her daughter's marriage to Edward VI. Mary Stuart would be raised in English court. Also Lennox is made regent of Scotland.
How would France and pro-French Scottish lords react?
 
At the time of Edward's death (say he dies like IOTL) Mary is 11 y.o. So she is not married yet. Would she be allowed to return to Scotland now? If she stays in London at least until Mary Tudor' wedding Philip would want to marry her to Austrian archduke, so Habsburgs could inherit both British kingdoms.
 
At the time of Edward's death (say he dies like IOTL) Mary is 11 y.o. So she is not married yet. Would she be allowed to return to Scotland now? If she stays in London at least until Mary Tudor' wedding Philip would want to marry her to Austrian archduke, so Habsburgs could inherit both British kingdoms.

I wonder if in such a scenario she might be touted as an immediate successor to Mary Tudor. Elizabeth was only supported by Spain to keep England from Valois hands, so ifthe little Scots queen never marries the dauphin and the Valois have no chance of inheriting, could make for interesting times.
 
I wonder if in such a scenario she might be touted as an immediate successor to Mary Tudor. Elizabeth was only supported by Spain to keep England from Valois hands, so ifthe little Scots queen never marries the dauphin and the Valois have no chance of inheriting, could make for interesting times.
Yes, ITTL Mary Stewart (she started to use form "Stuart" in France) is raised at English court, not married to Dauphin and her legitimacy is not questioned. Perfect candidate for her namesake's heir.
 
In August of 1548, Mary is five years old and already betrothed to the Dauphin of France. To hold her is to start a second war (the "Rough Wooing" is still on-going at this point), with France. England has no allies at this point, just a ten-year-old boy who is also being ruled by a regency council. Her mother is French, the 'Auld Alliance' is in full swing, and the King of France will take not releasing his son's betrothed as a hostile action. It will also (because she's already betrothed and this is basically kidnapping the girl, who has been crowned Queen of Scotland) not endear England's cause. They'll all be saying "Look, Edward's just as much as monster as his father."

There's also the not-so-small religious issue: Mary Stewart is Holy Roman Catholic and her mother intends her to remain so. Does England really want to stand against all other Holy Roman Catholic countries who will view any 'conversion' as forced and be outraged? Spain already has a horse for the race (Mary Tudor, Edward's sister), so they've got everything to gain by backing France in this issue.
 
In August of 1548, Mary is five years old and already betrothed to the Dauphin of France. To hold her is to start a second war (the "Rough Wooing" is still on-going at this point), with France. England has no allies at this point, just a ten-year-old boy who is also being ruled by a regency council. Her mother is French, the 'Auld Alliance' is in full swing, and the King of France will take not releasing his son's betrothed as a hostile action. It will also (because she's already betrothed and this is basically kidnapping the girl, who has been crowned Queen of Scotland) not endear England's cause. They'll all be saying "Look, Edward's just as much as monster as his father."

There's also the not-so-small religious issue: Mary Stewart is Holy Roman Catholic and her mother intends her to remain so. Does England really want to stand against all other Holy Roman Catholic countries who will view any 'conversion' as forced and be outraged? Spain already has a horse for the race (Mary Tudor, Edward's sister), so they've got everything to gain by backing France in this issue.
So if Edward sees that accident as sign from Heaven? God himself handed Mary to him to save her from false faith and marriage with damned poppish prince?
 
Uh, Edward can think whatever he wants, but he ain't in Heaven to get word from God's mouth yet. Might soon be, if Marie de Guise gets a hold of him.

England's "Rough Wooing" was in full force at this time, England was already harassing the borders, seizing ships, etc. This would be one insult too many - to both Scotland and France (because the betrothal treaty was in force at the time) - it would be something completely different if Mary, QoS, had been just 'going to France' for a vacay or to see her mom's relatives, but she was going as part of a betrothal.....like the Treaty H8 proposed, the regent signed, but the Scottish parliament rejected (all in 1543). In the case of "going for a visit" - you can make an argument for detaining her for a while, but if Scotland wants her back, she's their Queen. It's not like the case of the older Mary, QoS, abdicated in favor of her son and goes into England voluntarily - this is a child, the monarch of Scotland. She's not old enough (and neither is Edward) to proclaim a mad passion and debauch her, in essence, forcing her to marry him. This scenario is England begging at least two nations to attack it in force, not the harassments of the 'Rough Wooing." This is one nation going "I've got your queen, I'm going to keep her and you just stuff it." Ain't gonna work.

You need a different POD.
 
Uh, Edward can think whatever he wants, but he ain't in Heaven to get word from God's mouth yet. Might soon be, if Marie de Guise gets a hold of him.

England's "Rough Wooing" was in full force at this time, England was already harassing the borders, seizing ships, etc. This would be one insult too many - to both Scotland and France (because the betrothal treaty was in force at the time) - it would be something completely different if Mary, QoS, had been just 'going to France' for a vacay or to see her mom's relatives, but she was going as part of a betrothal.....like the Treaty H8 proposed, the regent signed, but the Scottish parliament rejected (all in 1543). In the case of "going for a visit" - you can make an argument for detaining her for a while, but if Scotland wants her back, she's their Queen. It's not like the case of the older Mary, QoS, abdicated in favor of her son and goes into England voluntarily - this is a child, the monarch of Scotland. She's not old enough (and neither is Edward) to proclaim a mad passion and debauch her, in essence, forcing her to marry him. This scenario is England begging at least two nations to attack it in force, not the harassments of the 'Rough Wooing." This is one nation going "I've got your queen, I'm going to keep her and you just stuff it." Ain't gonna work.

You need a different POD.

Since the main beef that France would have in this scenario seems to be the betrothal, would the Dauphin's death in the same days Mary is captured nullify/moderate that?
Or would France still take it as an outrage (the Guise clan would be baying for blood, but just how much power do they have?) and take an alliance of convenience with Spain -who has a very convenient heir in the game?
 
Since the main beef that France would have in this scenario seems to be the betrothal, would the Dauphin's death in the same days Mary is captured nullify/moderate that?
Or would France still take it as an outrage (the Guise clan would be baying for blood, but just how much power do they have?) and take an alliance of convenience with Spain -who has a very convenient heir in the game?
The Spanish are not allying with France against England. Spain doesn't care about England at all at this point except as a potential ally against France (who are still the archenemies of all Habsburgdom). Actively allying with the French against England is massively counterproductive in that respect. France cares about England somewhat (especially Calais), but still less than it cares about being surrounded by Habsburgs.
 
How many people are ya'll planning on killing to obtain this goal? The Dauphin and Mary spent 1548-1560 together, the last couple married. He wasn't that sick in 1548.
 
The main beef France has will NOT be assuaged by the death of the Dauphin on the same day. They'll blame it on the news that his beloved Mary was kidnapped by the bloody-minded English and declare war immediately. And so will Scotland. And yeah, I know it's not the reason you'll give for his death, but it's the one the French and Scottish will use.

You need a different POD. Like maybe King Henry kicking off before Mary.QoS's birth. Without Henry, the regency councils of both countries might agree on terms for a marriage without a shipwreck and killing off heirs before they come of age.....
 
I think you're being too hostile to the idea. Its very possible that the English hold on to the little girl but without announcing that they intend to hold her long term. Instead, they temporize returning her, asking for a concession or two in desultory negotiations (the girl is young enough that no one is feeling like they need her NOW) and something comes up to distract France, somehow a few years have passed, she's still in London, and getting her back is on the backburner.
 
Seeing as how the English killed her father (Scottish view) and the Scots turned down the treaty H8 proposed as soon as it hit their parliament, I don't think either Scotland or France is going to be happy until she's out of England. The Regency Council in Scotland has to show they have control of the person of the Queen in order to be legitimate and England's just keeping her? The King of France is going to be shitting little pink worms until she's on French soil and Marie de Guise will be ready to incite the council if her daughter isn't where she wants her to be. The Scots will be worried about England subsuming them in this case and so will the French. It's not a union they've chosen (which would have been the case had the treaty of 1543 been approved), it's detention of a royal by a foreign country. And with the religious angle involved as well, the hostilities will be amped. The English can ask for a concession, but if the situation were reversed, do you think England would sit still while Edward grew up in Scotland or France?
 
I mean, there's not much the Scots can actually do to get her back, militarily. Their track record on successfully invading England was extremely poor, and the country itself wasn't particularly unified. France has more options, but those will be more focused on taking Calais (which they almost certainly could do), which won't do much good for Mary.
 
Not Edward. A bride for Edward.

I was asking if you thought England would stand by and let their King be forcibly detained (however luxiously) in a place the regency council did not approve without taking any action. I was reversing the scenario.

Kidnapping the monarch might unite the clans, and there is something Scotland can do (and, given that there are a lot of ambitious relatives of the late King about) - actually, two somethings: they can, like Oliver Cromwell, rule themselves (without beheading the monarch in this instance); or they can pick another king/queen. England did it later, Scotland can just do it first.

Long live King James VI (formerly Earl of Arran and head of the regency council) of Scotland!
 
Foreign monarch's held foreign sovereigns as prisoners numerous times - Francis I was swapped for his two young sons by Charles V for example. This isn't really that this can be presented as England rescuing the little Queen.
So I don't necessarily think the world was going to be that horrified at the five-year-old Queen being honourably kept by the English after being saved from the clutches of the sea.
What it does mean is that the English now have the upper hand - the Queen is in their hands - that means the Scots will have a choice - agree to the terms originally proposed in the Treaty of Greenwich with the addition of expelling French troops from SCotland and revoking the new treaty with France or continued war without a monarch.
Arran was next in line but throughout his life remained committed to Mary's cause - even after her deposition - so the Scots can't just replace their Queen. And the Protestant Lords who are on the rise now have the option to support an English Protestant match or a French Catholic one on the other side.
Marie of Guise might not like it but she is not her daughter's regent - Arran is (he gave it up to her in 1552 in otl) - Arran tended to switch sides throughout his career and after spending the last five years losing the war with England he might think peace is worth it - the French support in OTL certainly changed the tide forcing the English out but it was never going to be enough to mount a successful attack on England itself.
Henri II will no doubt march into Calais which will humiliate Edward and Somerset but that's about all he can do. - Mary stays in England has protestant tutors and is largely raised in that tradition - estranged from her mother etc - Arran remains regent in Scotland -
In 1553 the couple are still unmarried when Edward dies - the Scots heave a sigh of relief and Mary despite the advice of the Spanish ambassador acts honourably and ten year old Mary goes home - where she is promptly betrothed to the Dauphin and dispatched to France.
 
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