1531: the Lisbon earthquake kills King and Queen of Portugal, and their daughter

Wow! Thanks for the mention, Jonas. I hate that my pc in 2014 croaked without a warning—I ended up losing not only the timeline but all my alternate genealogy charts too... that pretty much made continuing PoP impossible. Maybe one day I'll take another crack at the period though.

But yes, assuming Mary is married off to the Luis and becomes Queen of Portugal, it will definitely have some alternative effects on England and the succession. Though PoP had a different geopolitical world—Spain and the Emperor could never have countenanced Mary Tudor and François II succeeding Edward VI (especially given the engagement of Mary Stuart to the Duc d'Orléans at that time... who would've likely succeeded Mary in England, creating a unified British Isles that was connected to France through blood), I don't see Mary succeeding in this ATL world. She'll be removed from England in the 1530s and would fade from the people's mind, rather than staying behind as a figurehead. There would be the distance and foreign husband, of course—the English were notoriously xenophobic, and English law at the time basically meant that whatever property a woman inherited also became the property of her husband. Specific laws had to be passed upon the Mary's succession IOTL and eventual marriage and some felt these laws even applied to the Queen and that her kingdom would pass specifically to her husband as property. Given Edward's reformist regency, it's also likely they're going to jockey and do what they can to keep things going. With Mary out of the country, it's much easier to pass the throne from Edward to Elizabeth. If Henry makes a Third Succession Act in 1543, it will make things clearer if Henry reinstates Elizabeth to the succession behind Edward, but doesn't do the same for Mary... Henry VIII's succession act allowed for the succession of his sister Mary Tudor's children should his line go extinct, but not his sister Margaret who had married abroad, so I could see Henry keeping Mary out of any alternate succession acts. Of course, there will always be divisions based on religious preferences. Catholics are always going to consider Mary Tudor to be indisputably legitimate and have a right to the crown behind Edward, but others will think otherwise.

Of course, with butterflies it's likely that Edward VI* (or whatever alternate son Henry has) doesn't die young. But assuming he still does, Elizabeth would probably be the successor. Mary would probably put some pressure and maybe intrigue to claim her throne, but probably without much popular support outside Catholic circles. Maybe she outfits some ships or lands some troops in Ireland to cause a little trouble, but nothing much more than that. I can't even see Charles V & Spain being very receptive to the idea, either—they'll probably want to do what they can to appease the governing powers in England so that they don't get too cozy with France. While putting Mary on the throne would be a great way to put England in the Spanish fold, she wouldn't have a power-base to effectively rule. Better to appease to bastard Elizabeth to keep her from openly allying with the French.

On an interesting note, no Bloody Mary means that Calais probably remains in English hands for a bit longer, as England probably won't join the disastrous Italian War of 1551-1559.
You have everything wrong about the proposed French matches for both Marys...

Mary Tudor will marry the future Francois II (but he is the eldest son of Francis I who will take the the throne instead of his brother, the OTL Henry II and Mary Stuart’s father-in-law) and if that match will go on Mary Stuart will be engaged to one of sons of Francois II and Mary Tudor (likely the Dauphin if they have not a younger one of a more appropriate age) not to the Duke of Orleans (who at this point is her OTL father-in-law, while Elizabeth’s proposed husband was the third son who here will still be know as Duke of Angouleme )
 
Wow! Thanks for the mention, Jonas. I hate that my pc in 2014 croaked without a warning—I ended up losing not only the timeline but all my alternate genealogy charts too... that pretty much made continuing PoP impossible. Maybe one day I'll take another crack at the period though.

You're welcome. I'd love to see one of your TLs on the board in the future. Whether it's a reborn Prince of the Peace, Europe's Hope and Britain's Glory, or Ballet of the Pleiades, or some other massively underused POD.


You have everything wrong about the proposed French matches for both Marys...

Mary Tudor will marry the future Francois II (but he is the eldest son of Francis I who will take the the throne instead of his brother, the OTL Henry II and Mary Stuart’s father-in-law) and if that match will go on Mary Stuart will be engaged to one of sons of Francois II and Mary Tudor (likely the Dauphin if they have not a younger one of a more appropriate age) not to the Duke of Orleans (who at this point is her OTL father-in-law, while Elizabeth’s proposed husband was the third son who here will still be know as Duke of Angouleme )

What Drake is referring to is for the situation of the Prince of the Peace - OTL Henri II dies without issue sometime in the 1530s (alt-Caterina de Medici is married to the king of Naples instead). The duc d'Orléans in his TL is a younger son of Mary Tudor and François II.
 
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