1531: the Lisbon earthquake kills King and Queen of Portugal, and their daughter

To the people of Portugal ,God has punished Portugal for its sins against God and the church.
Bow down to God's chosen ruler Charles V of Spain and be forgiven.
Pope Clement VII

Portugal won't be expecting the Spanish Inquisition.
 
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As long as there is one brother of Joao still breathing, Charles V can't do shit. He's too broke to invade Portugal as well.
 
As to Luis I of Portugal's bride, I think he'll push hard for Mary Tudor, but it's unlikely they'll end up married. He'll refuse to take her without confirmation of her legitimacy at the bare minimum, and Henry VIII is not a man to change his mind for ease and comfort.
The PoD is in 1531, the start of divorce proceedings. Mary was recognized as illegitimate OTL only by 1533. Though I agree, the PoD is unlikely to change his mind on the divorse idea, it may make the whole situation in England... a bit weird.
 
Portugal won't expecting the Spanish Inquisition.

As I understand it, nobody is expecting the Spanish Inquisition :)


The PoD is in 1531, the start of divorce proceedings. Mary was recognized as illegitimate OTL only by 1533. Though I agree, the PoD is unlikely to change his mind on the divorse idea, it may make the whole situation in England... a bit weird.

Weird perhaps. But it also gives Henry a suitable sop to Katherine. Mary will be a queen, just not in England. Mary gets removed from the English scene, gets a suitably ranked husband, and Henry can turn to dealing with Katherine alone. He'd not necessarily have to deal with the threat of Mary, since when Richard III died, it wasn't as though the king of Portugal (the senior most heir not a Beaufort) invaded. Sure, Mary-Luiz might give (moral) support from Portugal, but Karl V might just urge Katherine to step aside. Not that Kate will, mind you. No one less than God Himself is going to tell her she can't be queen of England.

@DrakeRlugia's TL, The Prince of the Peace, has Mary married off to the dauphin, and parliament deciding on Elizabeth when TTL Edward VI dies, since Liz is a) Protestant, b) unwed and c) no prospect of a Anglo-French PU in sight. Although, interestingly enough, if things in England go the same way as OTL (or very close to it), parliament might do the same thing. Although they might have a different angle for barring Mary - like distance between London and Lisbon, rather than the rosbifs not liking the frogs.
 
It is a rather elegant solution. And if Mary can pop out a handful of infantes and infantas then even better.
Also, if the relations between father and daughter do not deteriorate (that is, she is not humilated during the brief reign of Anne Boleyn by virtue of her being Queen of Portugal), that may slightly increase the odds of Henry VIII remarrying Maria of Viseu (I presume that only King & Queen w/daughter are dead in opening post, not the rest of Royal family, so the younger infantes are as OTL) instead of Anne of Cleves.
 
If Mary weds Luis in 1532 then she will be 16 years old. Let's say that Mary pops out around 6 babies, four who will live. That would bring the Avis line some stability.

Infanta Catarina b 1534

Manuel II b 1537

Infante Joao b 1539 d 1540

Infante Luis b 1541

Infanta Maria b 1543 d 1548

Infanta Isabella b 1545
 
In fact, this marriage is favorable for Karl V - they need to keep Portugal in the sphere of influence, and Habsburg clan proper has no Princess of age to offer (Christine of Denmark, second best variant, is a bit too young).
 
And if Isabella of Portugal dies as OTL then Mary can serve as the new connection between Spain and Portugal. Just please don't wed Manuel II to Joanna of Spain, if nothing else than for my sanity.
 
If Anne goes to the chopping board as OTL then Maria won't touch H8 with a ten feet long barge pole regardless.

What about Annie dies of complications from one of her miscarriages? Or she DOESN'T miscarry in 1536, but gives birth to a stillborn son in May, and she pulls a Jane Seymour and dies of childbed fever a few days later?

Although, I must confess, Anne having a surviving son and NOT getting axed is a personal favourite. She carries two of her miscarriages to term (surprise surprise they're a prince of Wales and a duke of York) and Henry dies in his 1536 accident (while Anne's pregnant with little Henry, duke of York). Anne's son is crowned as Edward VI with his mom as regent. Badabing badaboom. Extreme happiness for everyone whose misery was a result of Henry.

Well, probably not, but you get what I'm going for...
 
I don't think that Anne would have been made regent for her son. She had rather little power in that regard as consort, compared to Catherine who weilded much power, both as a politically connected woman and as a very competent regent and war general.

But Anne dying in childbirth might have made H8 more attractive, or at least less disgusting, to the european ladies.
 
I don't think that Anne would have been made regent for her son. She had rather little power in that regard as consort, compared to Catherine who weilded much power, both as a politically connected woman and as a very competent regent and war general.

But Anne dying in childbirth might have made H8 more attractive, or at least less disgusting, to the european ladies.

I'm not saying she should be regent a la the French fashion (although let's face it, this is Anne who adores all things French, so she'll probably try), but more like she'll be on the council of regency - that will include Cromwell (oh the fun there), Cranmer, and a couple of others. Her dad and brother will probably make it on - one because of his experience as a diplomat, the other because he's warden of the Cinque Ports (but more because he's the queen's brother). Norfolk and Suffolk (still more fun - one's her uncle who'll throw her to the wolves as soon as it looks like it's a good idea; and the other one hates her and doesn't have the gag known as BFF Henry VIII around anymore).
 
@DrakeRlugia's TL, The Prince of the Peace, has Mary married off to the dauphin, and parliament deciding on Elizabeth when TTL Edward VI dies, since Liz is a) Protestant, b) unwed and c) no prospect of a Anglo-French PU in sight. Although, interestingly enough, if things in England go the same way as OTL (or very close to it), parliament might do the same thing. Although they might have a different angle for barring Mary - like distance between London and Lisbon, rather than the rosbifs not liking the frogs.

Wow! Thanks for the mention, Jonas. I hate that my pc in 2014 croaked without a warning—I ended up losing not only the timeline but all my alternate genealogy charts too... that pretty much made continuing PoP impossible. Maybe one day I'll take another crack at the period though.

But yes, assuming Mary is married off to the Luis and becomes Queen of Portugal, it will definitely have some alternative effects on England and the succession. Though PoP had a different geopolitical world—Spain and the Emperor could never have countenanced Mary Tudor and François II succeeding Edward VI (especially given the engagement of Mary Stuart to the Duc d'Orléans at that time... who would've likely succeeded Mary in England, creating a unified British Isles that was connected to France through blood), I don't see Mary succeeding in this ATL world. She'll be removed from England in the 1530s and would fade from the people's mind, rather than staying behind as a figurehead. There would be the distance and foreign husband, of course—the English were notoriously xenophobic, and English law at the time basically meant that whatever property a woman inherited also became the property of her husband. Specific laws had to be passed upon the Mary's succession IOTL and eventual marriage and some felt these laws even applied to the Queen and that her kingdom would pass specifically to her husband as property. Given Edward's reformist regency, it's also likely they're going to jockey and do what they can to keep things going. With Mary out of the country, it's much easier to pass the throne from Edward to Elizabeth. If Henry makes a Third Succession Act in 1543, it will make things clearer if Henry reinstates Elizabeth to the succession behind Edward, but doesn't do the same for Mary... Henry VIII's succession act allowed for the succession of his sister Mary Tudor's children should his line go extinct, but not his sister Margaret who had married abroad, so I could see Henry keeping Mary out of any alternate succession acts. Of course, there will always be divisions based on religious preferences. Catholics are always going to consider Mary Tudor to be indisputably legitimate and have a right to the crown behind Edward, but others will think otherwise.

Of course, with butterflies it's likely that Edward VI* (or whatever alternate son Henry has) doesn't die young. But assuming he still does, Elizabeth would probably be the successor. Mary would probably put some pressure and maybe intrigue to claim her throne, but probably without much popular support outside Catholic circles. Maybe she outfits some ships or lands some troops in Ireland to cause a little trouble, but nothing much more than that. I can't even see Charles V & Spain being very receptive to the idea, either—they'll probably want to do what they can to appease the governing powers in England so that they don't get too cozy with France. While putting Mary on the throne would be a great way to put England in the Spanish fold, she wouldn't have a power-base to effectively rule. Better to appease to bastard Elizabeth to keep her from openly allying with the French.

On an interesting note, no Bloody Mary means that Calais probably remains in English hands for a bit longer, as England probably won't join the disastrous Italian War of 1551-1559.
 
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