1531: the Lisbon earthquake kills King and Queen of Portugal, and their daughter

On January 26, 1531 there was an earthquake that killed 30000 people in Lisbon and Santarém.
What if the King of Portugal John III, along with his wife Catherine of Austria and his only daughter Maria Manuela died in this earthquake?
Consequently the couple dying this year, Sebastian I, his grandson, and future King of Portugal would not exist, and Philip II of Spain would never have married Maria Manuela, there would be no heirs to the throne of the couple.
Which of John III's brothers could come to take the throne?
What would be the consequences of this scenario?
 
Luis might marry Mary Tudor in that case.
Was going to suggest this.
If Anne Boleyn/Henry Tudor have more a bit more brains than OTL, it's a pretty plausible match, fertility records of Mary nonwithstanding (she had somewhat messy periods in OTL, maybe an early precursor of reproductive system disease). Though with earlier match she would be able to produce a child or two.
 
However, if Mary is childless/unable to produce a living child, things will get messy.
OTL she outlived Luis by 3 years (dying in 1558; Luis died in 1555).

And that's where the succession issues start:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_of_Portugal,_Duke_of_Guarda was outside the Lisbon in 1531, but died OTL in 1534
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinal-Infante_Afonso_of_Portugal Cardinal, also pre-deceased Luis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry,_King_of_Portugal OTL cardinal, but can be with the Royal family in 1531, unless survives via authorial fiat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duarte_of_Portugal,_4th_Duke_of_Guimarães Progenitor of OTL Braganza line, however like his brother Henry, he has all chances to die in earthquake

In case of mass culling of princes (Henry & Duarte dying along with John) we pretty much get to the OTL Spain-Portugal union, as the heirs of Luis with his brothers death are descendants of his sister Isabel, meaning Philip II of Spain.
 
Hopefully Luis can sire some sons to live and inherit. What other options are avaliable for him as marriage prospects?
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleanor_of_Austria Though that's his stepmother, so there is huge dispensation problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christina_of_Denmark Most likely Habsburg-backed candidate, though may be too young.
The rest of princesses are either too young (though that's also the issue with Christina) or too unimportant.

Marriage with Christina would be ideal for heir-siring even if Henry & Duarte perish in earthquake (or do they survive by topicstarter's idea - the clarification needed on who exactly died?).
 
Ew, Eleanor is too old for a king who needs heirs asp and she was his stepmother as well. Christina would be a interesting prospect.

Is there any french candidates for Luis?
 
In fact the situation where Mary Tudor becomes Mrs. Luis I of Portugal (maybe with renouncing the rights to English throne), yet Infantes Henry & Duarte survive, can be interesting.
Duke of Guimarães can be treated a bit like OTL James II of Britain in his brother's reign - heir presumptive/father of heir presumptive.
 
But Luis is king now, so he's a even better prospect.
I don't think so. Luis taking throne of Portugal decrease chances of Jagiellon-Aviz match, such "exotic" marriage would not bring political gains for any side. If Luis is not a king, at least he could benefit from it. Say he is desperate to gain royal crown, anywhere, even in some far, far away country. At the same time plans for Hedwig's Brandenburg marriage failed (say Joachim's first wife survived, while his younger brother John died, thus Hohenzollerns are not available). Hedwig is getting older and older, Luis is willing to marry her even with little/no dowry, hoping for Polish throne in the future-Hedwig has just one brother, something could happen to him ("something" doesn't need to happen to Sigismund Augustus, Luis would not outlive him, but if he had a son with Hedwig, he'll be obvious candidate to succeede his uncle).
 
It's funny, I'd actually created an outline for a timeline with this basic premise a couple months ago (never really got past the planning stages unfortunately), so I have a couple of thoughts.

Firstly, if the King dies, we're probably going to see a major backlash against the Jewish community in Lisbon. OTL, there was almost mass mobbing and murders against them, so it's likely that in this situation, that escalates into at least a few murders. It'd be up to the writer to decide how far that goes, but I know in my timeline it would have led to a ban on Jewish people in the city for at least a decade following, due to public prejudice.

You might also not see the Ribeira Palace rebuilt. OTL, the King just fixed it back to being a monument to Manuel I, but here, it's potentially where a King, the new King's brother, died tragically. There might be a move back to the traditional Palace of Alcáçova, which didn't fall, although it did get damaged in the earthquake. It would depend on (a) if that's where the royal family died, and (b) how much Luis can standing living where his brother was killed. It'll probably be rebuilt in the end, but you might see the Palace of Alcáçova getting a second chance as the royal centre, at least until the stigma of Ribeira wears off. Remember, it's only been the chief royal residence for less than 30 years, so its more likely to be left behind.

As to Luis I of Portugal's bride, I think he'll push hard for Mary Tudor, but it's unlikely they'll end up married. He'll refuse to take her without confirmation of her legitimacy at the bare minimum, and Henry VIII is not a man to change his mind for ease and comfort. I'd say Luis will give up around the 1540's, and you'll see him maybe try for a German, Italian or French bride. Marie of Guise will be a widow by the mid 1540's, with a proven track record of successful childbirths, although I doubt she'll bite. But she had sisters, and there were other families who'd love to see their daughters as Queen of Portugal. Jeanne d'Albret is a potential and interesting choice. Hell, I could even see Amalia of Cleves as Queen in the right circumstances, and had her as my top pick when outlining my timeline. If Marguerite of France hasn't been snapped up as Philip, Prince of Asturias' bride, she'll also be a top contender.

I'm strongly for a marriage in the 1540's, because that's when Luis OTL lost his two youngest brothers with wives and children, which ITL is the loss of the two potential lines of succession. If the Duke of Guarda also is dead, and considering his death was most likely a household illness that took his entire family that's possible, then I can see Luis rushing to marry if just because suddenly the Aviz line is a lot flimsier than previously thought.

Those are my basic thoughts, and bare in mind a lot of these were based off about three hours of research when trying to come up with a timeline that didn't happen (although I'm going to go back and give it a good look over to see if it might work now) but I think I've made a couple of decent points.
 
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