150 years ago today...

TFSmith121

Banned
http://www.civilwar.org/battlefield...appomattox-court-house-history/surrender.html

So, the question is, if Lee had broken away from the US forces - no Sayler's/Sailor's Creek, for example - and he actually managed to get (say) ~28,000 men (which is about all the Army of Northern Virginia had left by the surrender, of which as many as half were essentially stragglers) and they headed south and linked up with JE Johnston's (maybe) 16,000, that totals all of 44,000 - at best.

Sherman alone had 57,000 after Bentonville; Grant's forces numbered some 68,000 in the field...

3 to 1 odds, somewhere in North Carolina...

Doing the math seems obvious, but will the rebels fight it out, or surrender?

Thoughts?
 
Do the rebels have the ability to supply that number of men at that stage of the war?

Is there anything to be gained by further bloodshed at this stage of the war, as I wouldn't think so. In order for a final battle to occur I would expect that someone other than General Lee would be in charge.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
True, probably not, but Lee certainly kept trying to

Do the rebels have the ability to supply that number of men at that stage of the war?

Is there anything to be gained by further bloodshed at this stage of the war, as I wouldn't think so. In order for a final battle to occur I would expect that someone other than General Lee would be in charge.

True, probably not, but Lee kept trying to fight it out - he'd been fighting Grant for weeks around Petersburg, after all. The reason the ANV pulled out of the Richmond-Petersburg position and was on the march was because Lee was unwilling to surrender the army alongside the capital, after all...

And there were still supplies to be had - Sheridan's forces got to the railheads first, however.

So if Lee et al had stolen a march on Meade et al (granted, not an especially easy thing to do by 1865) and kept access to the south side RRs, I suppose they could have gotten out of southeastern Virginia more or less intact early in the first quarter of 1865.

But say they do, and Lee and his remnants actually connect with Johnston and his somewhere between Danville, Va and Bentonville, NC - presumably it's Appomattox writ large, except with Sherman in at the kill...

Best,
 
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Driftless

Donor
If they do get out of Virginia - albeit with very limited resources, and get run to ground a week or two later, what's the likelihood of the remainder of the Confederate army being destroyed in detail? And what would that outcome do for, or to the "Lost Cause"?
 
But Sherman and Grant's evil plan worked so well the CSA was dead of starvation all over it.

The South helped by only growing cash crops at first. it was a real libertarian paradise that starved its people
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
In the extremely unlikely event that Lee managed to slip away and unite with Johnston, they would have had an army of about 40,000-45,000 men. Lee would have been senior on account of being commander-in-chief. Johnston's talents would have been much better suited for him to be a second-in-command or chief-of-staff rather than a corps commander. He was, frankly, better than Lee in matters of logistics and administration. He would have been willing to take orders from Lee, a fellow Virginian, old comrade, and personal friend.

Lee could defeat Sherman on the battlefield, for Sherman was a poor tactician and Lee one of the best. Bentonville and Fort Stedman had shown that Southern soldiers were still willing and able to fight if they thought they had a chance of getting meaningful results. The personal magnetism that Lee and Johnston exercised over their respective armies shouldn't be underestimated.

But if Lee/Johnston inflict a tactical defeat on Sherman, so what? Grant will be coming down from Virginia and Sherman's army, though licked, isn't going to be destroyed. Even if they win a victory, Lee/Johnston will suffer losses that they can't afford in doing so. Meanwhile, even if Johnston performs his logistical miracles, there are not enough supplies to keep an army of 40,000 men in the field for very long, especially now that Virginia is in Union hands. We'd see a final battle of Lee/Johnston versus Grant/Sherman and the latter would win.

The South still collapses, though perhaps two or three months later than IOTL.

The only difference would be in historiography. Napoleon got to go out with a bang at Waterloo, Lee with a quiet conversation at Appomattox (two years after his big defeat at Gettysburg). ITTL, Lee gets to have his big final battle to accompany his final defeat. It would alter the way we look at Lee, which would have interesting effects on American, and especially Southern, culture in the century-and-a-half following.

It would also change how TTL would view Johnston and Sherman. IOTL, the former is underrated and the latter is overrated.
 
In the extremely unlikely event that Lee managed to slip away and unite with Johnston, they would have had an army of about 40,000-45,000 men. Lee would have been senior on account of being commander-in-chief. Johnston's talents would have been much better suited for him to be a second-in-command or chief-of-staff rather than a corps commander. He was, frankly, better than Lee in matters of logistics and administration. He would have been willing to take orders from Lee, a fellow Virginian, old comrade, and personal friend.

Lee could defeat Sherman on the battlefield, for Sherman was a poor tactician and Lee one of the best. Bentonville and Fort Stedman had shown that Southern soldiers were still willing and able to fight if they thought they had a chance of getting meaningful results. The personal magnetism that Lee and Johnston exercised over their respective armies shouldn't be underestimated.

But if Lee/Johnston inflict a tactical defeat on Sherman, so what? Grant will be coming down from Virginia and Sherman's army, though licked, isn't going to be destroyed. Even if they win a victory, Lee/Johnston will suffer losses that they can't afford in doing so. Meanwhile, even if Johnston performs his logistical miracles, there are not enough supplies to keep an army of 40,000 men in the field for very long, especially now that Virginia is in Union hands. We'd see a final battle of Lee/Johnston versus Grant/Sherman and the latter would win.

The South still collapses, though perhaps two or three months later than IOTL.

The only difference would be in historiography. Napoleon got to go out with a bang at Waterloo, Lee with a quiet conversation at Appomattox (two years after his big defeat at Gettysburg). ITTL, Lee gets to have his big final battle to accompany his final defeat. It would alter the way we look at Lee, which would have interesting effects on American, and especially Southern, culture in the century-and-a-half following.

It would also change how TTL would view Johnston and Sherman. IOTL, the former is underrated and the latter is overrated.

Good synopsis and I agree with your sentiments. The question is how does this affect the legacy of the South and Lee in particular?
 

Driftless

Donor
Even IF they were to slip away temporarily, what would they use for supplies - both food and ammunition? Particularly while being directly & hotly pursued by better supplied forces.
 
Even IF they were to slip away temporarily, what would they use for supplies - both food and ammunition? Particularly while being directly & hotly pursued by better supplied forces.

And how Isolated from foreign commerce was the South at this late stage in the war?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Even IF they were to slip away temporarily, what would they use for supplies - both food and ammunition? Particularly while being directly & hotly pursued by better supplied forces.

They were actually okay for ammunition. It was food that was the major problem.
 

Driftless

Donor
You would need for Grant's army to not be south of Lee's forces, particularly Sheridan's cavalry. Lee's OTL line of retreat from Richmond towards Appomatox was pretty near due West rather than South towards Johnston.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Sure, but if the basic requirement is Lee gets out of

Sure, but if the basic requirement is Lee gets out of southeastern Virginia in shape worth bothering with, somebody has to be out of position.

Best,
 
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