1492: The year a star fell on Earth
- Thread starter Condottiero
- Start date
Unfortunately all I have is Wikipedia, but:Glen Finney said:
The Spanish started their conquest of the Maya lands in the 1520s. Some Maya states offered long fierce resistance; the last Maya state, the Itza kingdom, was not subdued by Spanish authorities until 1697.
I assume diseases had reached Itza before 1697, as Smallpox seems to have reached the Yucatan in 1511.
?Didn't japan try to conquer korea in the 1620's, I can see a eariler attempt as Japan evacuated to the mainland Korea and Amur become the home Islands for Japan, with a few people left on the original islands. By the time the Euro/Russians arrive from the west, Japan is moving across Siberia.
The thing is, the Majority of the Japanese Islands are going to survive. The majority of the Home Islands are pretty elevated off the sea.
In fact I think Korea would loose a higher percent of territory.
In fact I think Korea would loose a higher percent of territory.
corourke
Donor
Something I just thought of is that a lot of the displaced population of China will go north. Even if only 1 out of 5 displaced northern Chinese goes to Siberia, it's still going to be more populated that it has ever been. States will emerge, and Russia, when it decides to go East (Russia, or rather Muscovy, is probably one of the big winners here, as its lands don't even border on the sea at this time), it will run into some real resistance. It will also be interesting to see how the Siberian sea affects things, as it will probably be closed off at the top with ice.
Mi idea for segregating Wales was precisely the rise of Arthur II as king. It is something purely speculative to give some flavour to the TL. The English kingdom starts to decompose due to debilitation of royal authority and loses of lands. Henry VII attempts to seize Scottish lands, but the kingdom of James IV is in better shape and he is defeated. Several Yorkist conspiracies appear. There is a movement in Wales to stop the english refugees looking for higher lands and the regent uses the title of Arthur as prince of Wales to look from some support. Finally the authority is only recognized in Wales.
About the migration of the british (english, irish, and to less extent welsh and scottish), would it be feasible to move such an amount of population to the other side of the Atlantic. My original idea was to have most of the english and irish moving in Europe: France, Spain, Scandinavia and from there to eastern Europe, but some of them would move to North America. We could have an Irish nation in Quebec (with a warmer climate than in OTL) and English in New England. The Scottish would favour France due to the Auld Alliance.
I was also thinking in having an Spanish expansion in North Africa. Some sort of continued Reconquista that would attract lots of colonist-refugees.
One more question: we would have tornados and hurricanes in the North African Coast and in the Iberian Peninsula instead than inthe Caribbean, wouldn't we?
About the migration of the british (english, irish, and to less extent welsh and scottish), would it be feasible to move such an amount of population to the other side of the Atlantic. My original idea was to have most of the english and irish moving in Europe: France, Spain, Scandinavia and from there to eastern Europe, but some of them would move to North America. We could have an Irish nation in Quebec (with a warmer climate than in OTL) and English in New England. The Scottish would favour France due to the Auld Alliance.
I was also thinking in having an Spanish expansion in North Africa. Some sort of continued Reconquista that would attract lots of colonist-refugees.
One more question: we would have tornados and hurricanes in the North African Coast and in the Iberian Peninsula instead than inthe Caribbean, wouldn't we?
Glen
Moderator
Condottiero said:
Okay, I could see this as causing a lot of problems for the monarchy...then again, those who lose their lands also have lost their livelihood to a degree, making for a poor resistance. Of course, as they begin to see the handwriting on the wall (seawall, that is), that could change.
No, it isn't, actually. By the time this would happen, England wouldn't be that weakened, and the fact is that at a similar point in history, Henry VII defeated James IV in battle very badly, at Flodden.
If the English decide to take that land, they will probably succeed. The Scottish are unlikely to get much aid from France, given the fact that the French have their own issues to deal with due to the rising waters.
Henry VII probably won't die, unless you want him to, for your timeline as you say. A lucky arrow strike in battle with James IV might have taken out Henry VII and turned the tide of battle, as you had previously, I suppose.
Such a movement is doomed to failure. The English will get in just by shear numbers. As for Arthur being used to keep the English out of Wales, it just doesn't ring true to me somehow. Arthur's Regent would be wanting to keep power over the Welsh and English, not have a separatist movement, I'd think. Who were you thinking for this role anyway, and when would all of this be occuring?
Remember, your flooding is happening over the course of a century. This isn't going to all happen in 1493...also remember that initially, most people will not believe that this can keep going on for as long as it will.
No, I think initially you would see history playing out much as it did OTL, except with some twists, and some butterflies such as Arthur living (then again, he wasn't considered the most hale of individuals, so maybe he dies of some plague regardless).
Henry VII and James IV are both excellent leaders. They will do the best by their countries, and initially I don't think that we will see them clashing head to head. The question will be, will there be a holy alliance against France ITTL, and if so, will England join it? That has serious ramifications...
Over a century, yes.
The problem is that the British Isles refugees will have to either find a patron or fight their way ashore, and then keep fighting to move inland. Quite frankly, those who go to the New World will have an easier time because they will meet less opposition as they migrate inland. So while a substantial number will move to the Continent, as time goes by more and more will go for the land in the New World, which just needs to be taken from a relatively smaller amount of poorly equipped Native Americans, as opposed to the more populous and heavily armed Europe.
I don't think you'd see an independent Irish nation in America, rather an 'English' nation comprised of Irish, English, Welsh, and Cornish, and a 'Scottish' nation composed of Lowland and Highland Scots.
Why would this happen?
No, you'd still have them going across to the Caribbean. They'd be stronger, but move slower, I think.
As for the welsh question I just wanted some different nations 
, we have another Flodden in which the Englisharrive badly pressed by the rise of the waters, internal disorders ans supply problems. The Scots are a bit more successful and Henry VII is killed in battle. His heir Arthur is very young and some yorkist noblemen decide that they might take the crown. The regent and prince Arthur take shelter in Wales and he is only acknowledged as king there.
I think Ireland had not been fully annexed to England. Wouldn't the irish create some sort of independent states in the Americas.
About the tornados, if the Gulf stream is interrupted and we had cold waters bathing north of Africa and Iberia instead of hot ones, wouldn't that cause them? Just wondering.
As for the spanish expansion in North Africa that was something that was considered seriously in OTL. If Portugal and Spain (Castille+Aragon) had not distracted themselves in other adventures they would have expanded there. When Queen Isabel was going to die, she recommended her confesor to continue the Reconquista in the North of Africa. With thousands of refugees arriving, they would have considered using them to secure those lands.
, we have another Flodden in which the Englisharrive badly pressed by the rise of the waters, internal disorders ans supply problems. The Scots are a bit more successful and Henry VII is killed in battle. His heir Arthur is very young and some yorkist noblemen decide that they might take the crown. The regent and prince Arthur take shelter in Wales and he is only acknowledged as king there.I think Ireland had not been fully annexed to England. Wouldn't the irish create some sort of independent states in the Americas.
About the tornados, if the Gulf stream is interrupted and we had cold waters bathing north of Africa and Iberia instead of hot ones, wouldn't that cause them? Just wondering.
As for the spanish expansion in North Africa that was something that was considered seriously in OTL. If Portugal and Spain (Castille+Aragon) had not distracted themselves in other adventures they would have expanded there. When Queen Isabel was going to die, she recommended her confesor to continue the Reconquista in the North of Africa. With thousands of refugees arriving, they would have considered using them to secure those lands.
Wouldn't all of the fleeing English that didn't end up in Wales end up in Ireland? An English presence there was already felt in OTL. I could still see Nova Scotia in this timeline coming to be dominated by Europeans...Condottiero said:As for the welsh question I just wanted some different nations
I think Ireland had not been fully annexed to England. Wouldn't the irish create some sort of independent states in the Americas.
About the tornados, if the Gulf stream is interrupted and we had cold waters bathing north of Africa and Iberia instead of hot ones, wouldn't that cause them? Just wondering.
As for the spanish expansion in North Africa that was something that was considered seriously in OTL. If Portugal and Spain (Castille+Aragon) had not distracted themselves in other adventures they would have expanded there. When Queen Isabel was going to die, she recommended her confesor to continue the Reconquista in the North of Africa. With thousands of refugees arriving, they would have considered using them to secure those lands.
Hendryk
Banned
Interesting suggestion. Indeed, for those Chinese living north of the Yellow River, the Manchurian uplands are closer than, say, the hills of Fujian or the Sichuanese plateau; and the island that used to be Shandong will get crowded pretty fast.corourke said:
Considering that China's population was about 100 million in the early 16th century, and reached 200 million by the mid-17th century, it's hardly unrealistic to put the estimate of those moving north between 20 and 40 million. If the migration takes place before the 1600s, the Manchus won't yet be organized or militarily powerful enough to resist this human tide, and may themselves be either absorbed or pushed to the north or the west (eventually they may become a Chinese analog to what the Cossacks were for the Russians, a warrior vassal people). Depending on how much warmer Siberia becomes, one may witness the rise of a northern Chinese empire alongside the one south of the former Yellow River valley.
Glen
Moderator
Wendell said:
Nope. Why would you flee one sinking island for another?
Actually, Condi is right in that by the end of the 15th century, control by England had virtually ceased. Henry VIII had to re-conquer the island.
In this scenario, it is likely that they split entirely, under the leadership of the Fitzgeralds.
Continentals? Nope, I think the English, Scots, and Irish will have much more pressing need for new lands, ones they don't have to fight as hard to claim.
We'll probably skip Acadia and Quebec and go straight to 'Nova Scotia'.
Glen
Moderator
Wendell said:
Nope. Why would you flee one sinking island for another?
Actually, Condi is right in that by the end of the 15th century, control by England had virtually ceased. Henry VIII had to re-conquer the island.
In this scenario, it is likely that they split entirely, under the leadership of the Fitzgeralds.
Continentals? Nope, I think the English, Scots, and Irish will have much more pressing need for new lands, ones they don't have to fight as hard to claim.
We'll probably skip Acadia and Quebec and go straight to 'Nova Scotia'.
Glen
Moderator
Condottiero said:As for the welsh question I just wanted some different nations
I really question this premise. The pressure of the rising waters is a long term one, and not going to cause this much of a problem for an alternate Flodden.
Just having Henry VII die in the battle may be enough to reverse the fortunes of war here.
Okay, fair enough. So a Yorkist claims the crown (though Arthur is of the House of York as well as Tudor, IIRC) and is acknowedged only in Wales. That makes sense. I still think that Wales gets innundated with English, but that's okay. So there is England-in-Wales and England-in-Pennines, eventually. The remnants of Cornwall will go to the England-in-Wales faction. In the interim, Ireland breaks off completely under a Fitzgerald Lordship. The Scots do a lot better because England is fractured and James IV lives.
So four main groups settling the East Coast of North America; the Welsh English, the Penine English, the Irish, and the Scots.
These groups are going to have much more reason to colonize in largish numbers the New World than any others in Europe.
Yeah, re-read the Irish history, and you're probably right here.
I think the Gulfstream slows but doesn't stop.
No, that would stop them, I think. It is warm waters that feed Hurricanes (tornadoes are a different matter, just seen in thunderstorm systems, which probably increase in general). Probably because in general waters will be warmer, Hurricanes will be stronger. Because there is less of a current, they might move more slowly, but that really is determined more by the air currents.
Ah, shunting the refugees, that makes sense. Though you'd probably end up with a lot of French and English there, not Spanish and Portuguese, then.
Glen
Moderator
I suspect we'll see a lot of the Danes move into Scandinavia proper. John of Denmark likely holds together the Kalmar Union since he's now more interested in the high ground of Scandinavia than the lowlands of Germany.
How long this all will last is a different matter, but I'm going with Scandinavia becoming an island by the end of the flood century, and and going through cycles of disunion and union before finally stabilizing into a single nation.
How long this all will last is a different matter, but I'm going with Scandinavia becoming an island by the end of the flood century, and and going through cycles of disunion and union before finally stabilizing into a single nation.