How do you think protestantism would evolve in this Europe? Assuming a one meter per year sea level increase, by 1521 we would have big areas of Europe (mainly in Denmark and Flanders) under water. Would the catastrophe accelerate the Reformation or would it be hindered by inundations, refugees moving, wars...
1492: The year a star fell on Earth
- Thread starter Condottiero
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I think Protestantism would be hurt, as the Austrian(-Burgundian) Empire seems to cover much of the founding lands, and the Hapsburgs don't seem the Protestant type to me (I assume the Austrians are ruled by the Hapsburgs, though I suppose they don't need to be)
Also, in the time of crisis people will look to the Church as a sign of stability, and will be less likely to throw that source of stability out the window.
Also, in the time of crisis people will look to the Church as a sign of stability, and will be less likely to throw that source of stability out the window.
Northern Spain was not a protestant stronghold. In the Valladolid auto de fe they burned very few of them, but they were mostly Erasmist, not true protestants.Othniel said:
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Imajin said:
The people look to the authority looking for shelter in hard times. Most of them look to the church, some to local princes and some to religious revolutionaries... Would a strong central european empire not try to eliminate these dissidents?
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I suggested most possible routes for protestant refugees from Northern Germany: Poland, Sweden. I will also agree about Scotland and disagree about Southern France as the shelter because protestant wars in France with more lands in Northern France getting underwater are going to become more ferocious, people flee from war - not in opposite direction. I will also mention Czeckia as a possible shelter for lutherans. So 30-years (or even more!) war might have started much earlier. And Czechs will remember Hussites with more enthusiasm, now backed with German and Polish protestants. It's going to be a tough task for Habsburgs and the Catholic League... I wonder if Gustaw Adolf of Sweden will ever be born in this wold, or Wallenstein.
And whom Moscovian Czardom that might have expanded onto Poland, Russ and Lithuania would have supported.
And whom Moscovian Czardom that might have expanded onto Poland, Russ and Lithuania would have supported.Remember, if the Gulf Stream stops, Northern Europe is going to be too cold to support its current population, let alone the refugees. Everything north of the center of France will have a climate similar to Canada, even if the world as a whole is warming up.
Scotland and Norway will be all but useless for agriculture, and probably have a sudden population crash. The rest of the British Isles and Scanadanavia will still be inhabitable, but with shorter growing seasons, meaning less food yield, and starvation.
Scotland and Norway will be all but useless for agriculture, and probably have a sudden population crash. The rest of the British Isles and Scanadanavia will still be inhabitable, but with shorter growing seasons, meaning less food yield, and starvation.
So we would probably not have an strong Habsburg Empire or even a France but a war zone expanding from France to the new Lithuanian sea. Would the Ottomans be in a position as to take advantage of this situation? Would we see an Ottoman Germany?
What would be the situation in the Mediterranean? What about Iceland and Greenland?eschaton said:
This could push a lot of people to the south.
Condottiero said:
Hrrm...
I was basing my post on what is expected to happen in OTL with global warming.
Look at where Europe is on a world map compared to North America. Paris is roughly on the same latitude as Montreal. Even the warm countries in southern Europe are pretty damn far north. Chicago and Rome, for example, are on the same latitude. It's only because of the warm ocean current from North America that Europe is so seasonable. Take it away and you'd see a climate similar to Canada in Northern Europe, and a climate similar to the northern US around the Med.
Iceland would be ruined, useless for anything except fishing. It's on the same latitude as Baffin Island, and only warm enough to live on because it's right by the gulf stream. Greenland doesn't really benefit from the Gulf stream (it has a cold current coming down from the arctic from what I remember) so it would be warmer overall.
Of course, there are two things to consider. One, Antarctica melting in general so rapidly will have a worldwide warming effect that will likely lessen the effect somewhat. Secondly, it all depends on when Greenland melts. I'm sure in this scenario it will melt eventually, and rapidly, but there might be a delay of several years, since the initial melting event didn't happen there.
Possible events:
1492 The asteroid falls in Antarctica melting part of the Ice cap and sending debris to the Atmosphere that cause a Greenhouse effect.
During the first year sea levels increase something around three-five meters due to the consequences of the impact. From there on it raises at more or less one meter per year. So we could have the 100m level by the 1600s.
The Gulf Stream is interrupted making the temperatures in Europe to lower. They would be a bit warmer than OTL Canada (a bit warmer because of the GH effect).
Weather becomes globally warmer and wetter, except in Europe that is colder and wetter.
So the situation around 1600 could be something like:
* Scandinavia. Lower temperatures make the region unable to support big concentrations of population. Central Power collapses both in Sweden and Denmark. The Danes first flee to Sweden and Norway. As temperatures lower they migrate to the new coasts of Germany and probably some groups reach the Mediterranean. The Norwegians could remember the Auld alliance and flee to France. Some could migrate to Iceland, when the island becomes inhabitable, they owuld move with the Icelanders to Greenland.
* British Islands. The sea covers most of England and Ireland making the population flee very soon to the south. The English would go to France and Spain and the Irish to Spain. Scotland could consolidate as a temporary regional power taking what is left of England. Wales could become independent. As temperatures lower, the Scotch would migrate south to France (Auld alliance).
* Iberian Peninsula. Spain would be quite untouched by the sea level increase, except for some coastal regions. Portugal would be more dramatically affected as they would lose their main cities. Spain would absorbe Portugal and they would redirect the new population contingents from the British Islands and the rest of Europe for the continuation of the Reconquista in North Africa. Changes in the Atlantic currents and climatology would hinder colonization of America and would make them to redirect efforts to the Mediterranean and the North of Africa looking for milder lands.
* France. Possible collapse due to loss of lands and migrations. The arrival of Walons, Scotch and Norwegians could re-strenghten them and become again a power or be torn by religious conflicts between alt-calvinists, catholics and other religious groups that might arise. Savoy could prosper by taking some lower lands to France.
* Italy. Genoese and Venetians would be utterly destroyed. The Venetians would be the first to disappear and they would probably migrate first to the interior of Northern Italy and some would move to their possesions in the Eastern Mediterranean (Morea, Crete, Cyclades and Cyprus). The Genoese scatter along the western Mediterranean and they would stick to Corsica. Milan would be invaded by the Suiss looking for milder lands. The rest of Italy would be untouched. Naples would probably preserve its independence from France and Spain, although associated to the first due to dinastic bonds.
* Central Europe. The presence of refugees from the Netherlands, Flanders, Denmark, Northern Germany and Sweden plus the presence of religious groups like Hussites, alt-Lutherans and others would turn the region into a very conflictive one. The Habsbugh would probably carve the most powerful state and eventually reach an agreement with all the sides.
* Eastern Europe. Possible survival of the Teutonic Order in their new insular (although extremely cold) territories. Conflict between Lithuania and Russia for the control of the Region. The Ottomans could use the new Danubian channel as support for their invasion of Hungary and the rest of the Balkans. They could be more oriented to the Black Sea and the new channel to the Caspian and Less to the Mediterranean.
* Middle East. Egypt could be free from the Ottomans but more pressed by the Spanish, Venetians and other powers. Syria, Palestine and the Caucasus would be in ottoman hands. The Persians could project to Central Asia and the new trade routes.
* Asia. Collapse of Chinese power. Inundation of Ghanges valley prevents the Moghul Empire to appear.
* Africa. More Atlantic oriented Songhai. The spanish kings control the Maghreb and colonise it with northeuropeans.
* America. The spanish colonies barely survive. More commercial policy. Aztec empire manages to adapt to Europeans and survive, they could expand to the north. The Incans also have time to adapt and survive. Possible clash in Mesoamerica between Mayans, Incans and Aztecs. In Terranova small groups of Irish, English and Scottish could arrive and create mestizo societies.
What do you think of this?
1492 The asteroid falls in Antarctica melting part of the Ice cap and sending debris to the Atmosphere that cause a Greenhouse effect.
During the first year sea levels increase something around three-five meters due to the consequences of the impact. From there on it raises at more or less one meter per year. So we could have the 100m level by the 1600s.
The Gulf Stream is interrupted making the temperatures in Europe to lower. They would be a bit warmer than OTL Canada (a bit warmer because of the GH effect).
Weather becomes globally warmer and wetter, except in Europe that is colder and wetter.
So the situation around 1600 could be something like:
* Scandinavia. Lower temperatures make the region unable to support big concentrations of population. Central Power collapses both in Sweden and Denmark. The Danes first flee to Sweden and Norway. As temperatures lower they migrate to the new coasts of Germany and probably some groups reach the Mediterranean. The Norwegians could remember the Auld alliance and flee to France. Some could migrate to Iceland, when the island becomes inhabitable, they owuld move with the Icelanders to Greenland.
* British Islands. The sea covers most of England and Ireland making the population flee very soon to the south. The English would go to France and Spain and the Irish to Spain. Scotland could consolidate as a temporary regional power taking what is left of England. Wales could become independent. As temperatures lower, the Scotch would migrate south to France (Auld alliance).
* Iberian Peninsula. Spain would be quite untouched by the sea level increase, except for some coastal regions. Portugal would be more dramatically affected as they would lose their main cities. Spain would absorbe Portugal and they would redirect the new population contingents from the British Islands and the rest of Europe for the continuation of the Reconquista in North Africa. Changes in the Atlantic currents and climatology would hinder colonization of America and would make them to redirect efforts to the Mediterranean and the North of Africa looking for milder lands.
* France. Possible collapse due to loss of lands and migrations. The arrival of Walons, Scotch and Norwegians could re-strenghten them and become again a power or be torn by religious conflicts between alt-calvinists, catholics and other religious groups that might arise. Savoy could prosper by taking some lower lands to France.
* Italy. Genoese and Venetians would be utterly destroyed. The Venetians would be the first to disappear and they would probably migrate first to the interior of Northern Italy and some would move to their possesions in the Eastern Mediterranean (Morea, Crete, Cyclades and Cyprus). The Genoese scatter along the western Mediterranean and they would stick to Corsica. Milan would be invaded by the Suiss looking for milder lands. The rest of Italy would be untouched. Naples would probably preserve its independence from France and Spain, although associated to the first due to dinastic bonds.
* Central Europe. The presence of refugees from the Netherlands, Flanders, Denmark, Northern Germany and Sweden plus the presence of religious groups like Hussites, alt-Lutherans and others would turn the region into a very conflictive one. The Habsbugh would probably carve the most powerful state and eventually reach an agreement with all the sides.
* Eastern Europe. Possible survival of the Teutonic Order in their new insular (although extremely cold) territories. Conflict between Lithuania and Russia for the control of the Region. The Ottomans could use the new Danubian channel as support for their invasion of Hungary and the rest of the Balkans. They could be more oriented to the Black Sea and the new channel to the Caspian and Less to the Mediterranean.
* Middle East. Egypt could be free from the Ottomans but more pressed by the Spanish, Venetians and other powers. Syria, Palestine and the Caucasus would be in ottoman hands. The Persians could project to Central Asia and the new trade routes.
* Asia. Collapse of Chinese power. Inundation of Ghanges valley prevents the Moghul Empire to appear.
* Africa. More Atlantic oriented Songhai. The spanish kings control the Maghreb and colonise it with northeuropeans.
* America. The spanish colonies barely survive. More commercial policy. Aztec empire manages to adapt to Europeans and survive, they could expand to the north. The Incans also have time to adapt and survive. Possible clash in Mesoamerica between Mayans, Incans and Aztecs. In Terranova small groups of Irish, English and Scottish could arrive and create mestizo societies.
What do you think of this?
with the problems along the Coast, the Tribes move about, overwelming the Aztecs[3 tribe alliance] and some of the tribes to the north rise to power. They have Connection all the way to the Hopi and Navahoes, With the bits and pieces of Spainish techonlogy that has filtered over from Cuba, the ?Tuscan? create a Aboriginal American state, this Idea then percolates North, the Mayans on the other hand use the new Ship Knowledge to take to the ocean on both sides of the much narrower Isthmus, eventually having a trading empire reaching north from the Incas to the inland passage Fishing tribes
I think the Mayans would benefit from the raise of the waters as they would be isolated from the Aztecs. They would not be a top civilization but they could survive. The idea of DuQuense about using european technologies.
What about the following? They contact with the small spanish colonies in the Caribbean, they receive some missionaries and take into account the possibilities. On one had they have accepting the foreign gods and presence of spanish traders, misionaries and militiamen, but on the other hand they acquire warfare technology that could allow them defend from the Aztecs and trade on both oceans.
What about the following? They contact with the small spanish colonies in the Caribbean, they receive some missionaries and take into account the possibilities. On one had they have accepting the foreign gods and presence of spanish traders, misionaries and militiamen, but on the other hand they acquire warfare technology that could allow them defend from the Aztecs and trade on both oceans.
More comments about the situation in Europe and Central Asia?
Do you think there could be a strong Empire in Central Europe with all those groups moving around? Could the ottomans take central Europe?
Do you think there could be a strong Empire in Central Europe with all those groups moving around? Could the ottomans take central Europe?
You know, I really think that the British Islanders would be the ones most likely to immigrate outside of Europe. Even at that time the English were a rising merchant marine, and I think that they had some idea there was land across the sea before and after Columbus came back.
I guess my biggest problem is the fact that Spain is going to the the best off power in Europe (not Austria initially, ill explain later) since they have the ocean on 3 sides and the Pyrennees to the north. Of all the powers they will be able to stop immigrants and refugees. I dont think they much want people coming, in OTl many people went to the Americas, and now there all stuck there. Of course the climate is going to be different too, and I think things just wouldnt work out. Instead I see the majority of the islanders heading to Scotland initially and France as well, while a steady trickle start looking for places to settle along the coast of the Americas.
I can literally imagine seeing entire forests start disappearing in months time, as every penny on the islands is spent to build more ships. Jamestown isnt started 100 years ealier with 300 people, but with 30,000. Indians dont want to share? Too bad. You would have starving Scots, Irish and English, with better weapons and tactics, with nothing to loose, in bigger armies.
Actually I think you could get an English Mexico out of this. Its really the only land in the Americas that had the infrastructure to feed alot of people.
The thing about Austria initially, is that its going to be swamped by refugees and the movements of people across Europe for decades. If it manages to survive then it will most likely dominate.
I guess my biggest problem is the fact that Spain is going to the the best off power in Europe (not Austria initially, ill explain later) since they have the ocean on 3 sides and the Pyrennees to the north. Of all the powers they will be able to stop immigrants and refugees. I dont think they much want people coming, in OTl many people went to the Americas, and now there all stuck there. Of course the climate is going to be different too, and I think things just wouldnt work out. Instead I see the majority of the islanders heading to Scotland initially and France as well, while a steady trickle start looking for places to settle along the coast of the Americas.
I can literally imagine seeing entire forests start disappearing in months time, as every penny on the islands is spent to build more ships. Jamestown isnt started 100 years ealier with 300 people, but with 30,000. Indians dont want to share? Too bad. You would have starving Scots, Irish and English, with better weapons and tactics, with nothing to loose, in bigger armies.
Actually I think you could get an English Mexico out of this. Its really the only land in the Americas that had the infrastructure to feed alot of people.
The thing about Austria initially, is that its going to be swamped by refugees and the movements of people across Europe for decades. If it manages to survive then it will most likely dominate.