1211: Theodoros Laskaris dies at Antioch-on-the-Meander

In 1211, the Latins were in control of Constantinople, while Greek princelings ruled states in Epiros and Nikaia. The self-proclaimed emperor of Nikaia was Theodoros Laskaris, the son-in-law of the last Angeloi emperor Alexios III, who along with his wife and children had escaped the fall of Constantinople in 1204 by the skin of their teeth.

As for Alexios III Angelos, he had abandoned his city shortly before the capture of Constantinople, and spent the next few years wandering hither and dither, even being captured and imprisoned by the Latin lord Bonifazio of Montferrat. His cousin Mikhael of Epiros ransomed him, and Alexios III got in contact with Gıyaseddin Keyhüsrev, the Seljuk sultan.

Alexios III and Keyhüsrev went way back. Keyhüsrev had been deposed and driven from Seljuk territory by his brother, and come as an exile to Constantinople during the reign of Alexios III. The emperor welcomed him as the son he'd never had, even going through a sort of adoption/baptismal ceremony with the young man. According to Choniates, Keyhüsrev called Alexios III's daughters, including Laskaris' wife Anna, his "sisters". After the fall of Constantinople, Keyhüsrev's brother died and he was able to return to power in the Seljuk state.

In 1211, Keyhüsrev took up Alexios III's cause, and their first act was to turn against Theodoros Laskaris. When Laskaris refused to step down as 'emperor', Keyhüsrev's forces invaded Nikaian territory.

OTL, Laskaris killed Keyhüsrev on the field of battle, and took Alexios III prisoner. In this timeline, Keyhüsrev slays Theodoros Laskaris and the Seljuks are victorious.

What happens next?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
David Comnenus is probably able to secure some of Bithynia, perhaps Nicaea itself. The Latins take the shores of the Marmara and probably Nicomedia. The interesting thing will be how those two interact. David had made himself a nominal vassal of the Latin Empire in order to protect himself from Laskaris but with Laskaris gone they either have a falling out with David assuming the mantle of the Greek cause in Anatolia or they ally against the Seljuk threat.

Personally I think an alliance would be interesting because it could forestall the conquest of Sinope which would keep Trebizond linked western Anatolia. Its possible if the Seljuk victory is great enough that they threaten both the Latins and David alike. Especially if the Seljuks support Alexios as some kind of puppet Greek ruler since neither the Comneni nor the Latins would favor that. So perhaps if David lives longer he and Henry of Flanders can wage an effective campaign and secure at least the area held OTL by Nicaea. Of course now it would a Latin or pro-Latin Greek state.

Certainly I don't think the Seljuks would be able to hold on to too much and Alexios III wouldn't have to much credibility as a Greek leader. Though it would be interesting if it redirected the Seljuks from Paphlagonia and Sinope to Ionia and say, Smyrna or Philadelphia. Along with Antalya it would give them the coast of Anatolia from Cilicia to the Troad. And thus rather than launching an attack against the Trebizond controlled Cherson like OTL they might threaten the Aegean which would probably provoke a response from Venice or Genoa.

There's also the smaller Greek states to consider like Gabalas in Rhodes. I think that Aldobrandino and the Cypriots had already been expelled from Antalya at this point but Cyprus and Cilician Armenia would certainly be affected. But even with some kind of grand alliance I doubt the Seljuks could be beaten back too much, no more than OTL unless the Fifth Crusade was somehow diverted to deal with them. Which would be the opposite of OTL since the Seljuks allied with the Crusaders.
 
I think the Megaskomnenoi are going to be sweating bullets at the Selcuk threat. If he wants to retake Constantinople, even as a puppet emperor, its in Alexios III's best interest to make sure there's no other contender with a legitimate claim. As David was, if not sympathetic to the Latins, at least willing to accept aid from them and consider them his nominal overlords, I think a Trebizond-Latin Empire alliance would be formed.

Best case scenario for the Latins would be to push back the Selcuks, seize most of Laskaris' territory, kill or capture Alexios III, and perhaps even kill Keyhüsrev himself. With Keyhüsrev dead, Rum will be torn apart by his warring sons, buying the Latins some time. Not only is the peril of Laskaris eliminated, but the Latins gain an accessible ally (Trebizond) on their eastern flank.

Best case scenario for Keyhüsrev and Alexios III would be of course to seize Constantinople and then Trebizond and put the Megaskomnenoi and the Latins to the sword. I doubt they could do it, though. Even when the alternative is the Latins, the native Greeks are going to balk at accepting an unpopular, failed emperor who's clearly the puppet of the Selcuk sultan. There cannot possibly be much popular support for Alexios III. I think the Selcuks could still seize parts of the former empire of Nikaia, putting them almost at Constantinople's doorstep.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
That seems like the most probable outcome. I wonder though, if the Seljuks bother with a push to Constantinople. David Comnenus was pretty impetus so it wouldn't be surprising to find him rush into Nicaea after Laskaris is dead. So would the Seljuks push west and install Alexios as Emperor in Nymphaion? I'm not sure if it was yet well established as the Laskarids winter capital and second city of their Empire but it would certainly be easier to take that Bithynia with its proximity to the Latins and the Comneni. Were the Seljuks really so confident and ambitious as to think they could take Constantinople it self. Unless their victory over Laskaris really goes to their heads I think they would be satisfied with securing western Anatolia and expelling the Latins and Comnenus with a Greek puppet/vassal in their place.

And if there is an Alliance between David Comnenus and Henry of Flanders I wonder how long it would last. OTL both died within a few years. Neither had heirs so Henry was succeeded by his less capable brother in law and David's lands were simply taken by Laskaris but perhaps ITTL they go to one of his nephews since his brother's son in law probably still succeeds in Trebizond. Point is their successors are probably both less capable military leaders and administrators and more hard line Greek/Latin. So would an alliance really last long term without a constant immediate danger from the Seljuks?

Also worth considering while control of Sinope and Paphlagonia means stronger links to Trebizond it would not be as though the later was also allied with the Latins, Alexios I ruled independently there and there's still the independent city of Amisos (Samsun) in between, ruled by a Greek warlord who had allied with the the Seljuks to preserve his independence. I suppose he could be conquered during a war with the Seljuks but that would divert any resources Trebizond had so their net contribution against Rum would still be zero. Still all the Seljuk focus on the west definitely takes the pressure off of them, perhaps allowing them to make greater in roads into Iberia or develop Cherson to a greater extent.
 
I think that Keyhüsrev and Alexios III thought they could take Constantinople, sooner or later; whether or not any of the other Selcuks thought that is unknown.

At that time, Hendrik (Henry) of Flanders was emperor. He was a good general and respected by his subjects, but he commanded an army that never numbered much more than about 2,000 men, and he was squeezed on all sides by foes. We know that in OTL, when Hendrik faced off against Theodoros Laskaris in 1212 at the battle near the Ryndakos river, his army had 275 knights; plus foot soldiers and sergeants, the total number he fielded would've been about 2,000 men. This included the remnants of the Crusading army that arrived in 1203, plus a Byzantine contigent and elite foreign troops including the varangoi (Varangians). We know that at least some of the famed Varangians remained in Constantinople post-1204 and took service under Baldwin and then Hendrik, because of a papal letter dated 1208 that mentions English and Danish nationes serving the emperor, plus the seal of Mikhael, megalos diermeneutos ton Barragon (Grand Interpreter of the Varangians), which is dated to this time. I've wondered how Hendrik commanded them. He must've had bilingual sergeants who could issue his orders in both French and Greek.

Another issue is that of Boril in Bulgaria. The Bulgarian Empire had been fighting the Latins and ransacking their territory for years. If Nikaia falls, and the Latin Empire is concentrating on defending itself against the Selcuks, Boril might take it as an opportunity for a land grab.
 
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