A sign of things to come?
1955
SPOTLIGHT ON: THE MODERNISATION PLAN
"Equipment, in the widest sense of that word, of modern design is required to, which is fit to give reliable and speedy transport service on a large scale" was the second of the main objectives enumerated by the Commission in their last Annual Report. To no part of their undertaking does this apply with greater force than to British Railways, and in no other direction is a large-scale programme of investment likely to produce such fruitful results.
The Plan will involve an outlay of approximately £1,200 million. Of this amount, however, almost half would be required in any case for the normal maintenance of the railway services on their present basis, including the necessary replacements of rolling stock and so forth. But no one could seriously contemplate such a restricted objective; the only possible course, if railways are to continue in being, is to bring them properly up to date. The aim must be to exploit the great natural advantages of railways as bulk transporters of passengers and goods and to revolutionise the character of the services provided for both-not only by the full utilisation of a modern equipment but also by a purposeful concentration on those functions which the railways can be made to perform more efficiently than other forms of transport, whether by road, air or water.
There need be no doubt about the main components of the expenditure under the Plan, but while it is possible to estimate in round figures the costs involved, obviously any calculations that look so far ahead must be qualified by some reserve. All the figures and estimates given below arc based upon conditions ruling in the autumn of 1954. Subject to this, the heads of the Plan may be summarised as follows:
First, the track and signalling must be improved to make higher speeds possible over trunk routes, and to provide for better utilisation of the physical assets; there will be a widespread use of colour-light signalling, track circuits and automatic train control, the further introduction of power-operated signal boxes, and the installation of centralised traffic control where conditions are suitable; and the extended use of modern telecommunication services . . . . . . . . . . . . £325 million
Secondly, steam must be replaced as a form of motive power, primarily focussed on electric traction being rapidly introduced as may be most suitable in the light of the development of the Plan over the years; this will involve the electrification of large mileages of route, and the introduction of several thousand electric locomotives . . . . . . . . . . . £375 million
Thirdly, much of the existing steam-drawn passenger rolling stock must be replaced,' largely by electric multiple units or locomotive following the afore mentioned electrification; the remaining passenger rolling stock, which will be drawn by locomotives (whether electric, diesel or steam), must be modernised; the principal passenger stations and parcels depots will also require considerable expenditure . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . £250 million
Fourthly, the freight services must be drastically remodelled. Continuous brakes will be fitted to all freight wagons, which will lead to faster and smoother operation of freight traffic; marshalling yards and goods terminal facilities will be re-sited and modernised, and in particular the number of marshalling yards will be greatly reduced. Larger wagons will be introduced, particularly for mineral traffic, and loading and unloading appliances will require extensive modernisation in consequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . £250 million
Fifth, expenditure will be required on sundry other items, including improvements at the packet ports, staff welfare, office mechanisms, etc.; and a sum of at least £15 million for development and research work will be associated with the Plan, making a total of . . . . . . £40 million
TOTAL . . . .£1,240 million
SAY . . . . £1,200 MILLION
The result will be a transformation of virtually all the forms of service now offered by British Railways. In particular:
(i) as regards passenger services, remodelling of the operations will provide fast, clean, regular and frequent services, in all the great urban areas; inter-city and main-line trains will be accelerated and made more punctual; services on other routes will be made reasonably economic, or will be transferred to road:
(ii) as regards freight services, there will be a complete re-orientation of operations designed to speed up movement, to reduce its cost, and to provide direct transits for main streams of traffic; and to attract to the railway a due proportion of the full-load merchandise traffic which would otherwise pass by road.
The economic benefit to be derived will be of a decisive order. In the Commission's view the expenditure will ultimately attract a return amounting to at least £85 million a year. This must be viewed in relation to the annual turnover of British Railways, which is now approaching £500 million. There will, in addition, be many benefits which cannot be so quantified, but which in the long run will exercise a powerful influence upon the financial results. These include the public goodwill that will follow from improved services, and the tonic effect upon staff morale of working with thoroughly modem and efficient apparatus. Indeed the question in the Commission's mind is the amount by which the total returns on the outlay will exceed the minimum figure of £85 million a year, and this without praying in aid the benefits accruing to the public direct, such as better service, lower charges than would otherwise prevail, and a major contribution to relief of road congestion.
The final answer will of course depend not only on working efficiency, but also on the additional amount of remunerative traffic that can be attracted to the railway system. As regards passenger services, the remarkable growth in the volume of personal travel during the last few decades seems likely to continue, so that the market for passenger travel, urban or long-distance, private or business, should continue to expand. Despite air transport and the private car, therefore, and notwithstanding the fact that the total volume of travel includes a great deal of movement for which railways cannot be competitive, there will remain a large pool in which the railways will take a larger share, once the quality and cost of the services are transformed. At the same time as the railways attract further traffic which
they are inherently suited to carry (provided that the most modern equipment available), certain other traffics, which are now carried at disproportionately high costs and are inherently more suited for road transport, will be gradually transferred to road.
As to freight transport, the available forecasts of industrial development seem to show that, even after allowing for some rationalisation of introduction to save transport, the total demand will continue to grow. The extent to which the railways will be able to share in this demand will depend on their ability to provide improved services at lower cost; but the possibilities in this direction are great. The normal trend of increased production should of itself assist the railways, and some of the ground that has been lost to other forms of transport over the past thirty years should be recovered. On balance, these increments of traffic should more than counterbalance any local falling-off in traffics that may follow changes in the pattern of industrial development, or the handing over to road of traffics that are better suited to road transport. It is the Commission's view that freight transport should be encouraged to switch to standardised container transport, in a similar fashion to the Continent.
The general questions of economics and finance affecting the Plan are considered in more detail below (Section VI). Suffice it to say here that the expenditures proposed are not visionary; that they are not unduly large in relation to the investment already in existence; that they are supported by reliable commercial and technical opinion ; and that the yield to be expected from the Plan in due course, after fructification of the expenditures, is such as to make it an economic venture of the most promising sort.
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Notes: Roughly similar to OTL; the major difference being more money allocated to electrification than OTL, and the hopes of skipping straight to electric traction.