Orange Tempest

[Alternate History Geek]

Aaand here's today's update! This time, complete with prose update!

--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 24 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010

...IGOR WEAKENING RAPIDLY...BUT STILL A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTH SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...55.9N 3.1W
ABOUT 6 MI...10 KM SE OF EDINBURGH SCOTLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE MET OFFICE HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTS OF BORDERS REGION...LOTHIAN REGION...CENTRAL REGION...FIFE REGION...AND TAYSIDE REGION FROM THE ENGLISH BORDER WESTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO BUDDON NESS...TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

MET ÉIREANN HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES MAYO...SLIGO...LEITRIM...AND DONEGAL FROM BENWEE HEAD NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER...AND FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES DUBLIN...MEATH...AND LOUTH FROM PORTMARNOCK NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER...TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE MET OFFICE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN IRELAND...FOR THE WEST COASTS OF CUMBRIA COUNTY...DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY REGION...AND STRATHCLYDE REGION FROM BEES HEAD NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO OBAN...FOR THE ISLE OF MAN...AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARRAN...BUTE...ISLAY...JURA...COLONSAY...MULL...AND TIREE TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE MET OFFICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTS OF LINCOLNSHIRE AND HUMBERSIDE COUNTIES FROM GIBRALTAR POINT NORTHWESTWARD TO FLAMBOROUGH HEAD.

MET ÉIREANN HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTS OF COUNTIES MAYO...GALWAY...CLARE...LIMERICK...KERRY...CORK...WATERFORD...AND WEXFORD FROM BENWEE HEAD SOUTHWARD...EASTWARD...AND NORTHWARD TO CAHORE POINT.

THE MET OFFICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTS OF DORSET COUNTY...DEVON COUNTY...CORNWALL...SOMERSET COUNTY...GLOUCESTERSHIRE COUNTY...GWENT COUNTY...SOUTH GLAMORGAN COUNTY...MID GLAMORGAN COUNTY...GLAMORGAN COUNTY...AND DYFED COUNTY FROM THE BILL OF PORTLAND WESTWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...WESTWARD...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO CEMMAES HEAD...AND FOR THE ISLES OF SCILLY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COASTS OF BORDERS REGION...LOTHIAN REGION...CENTRAL REGION...FIFE REGION...AND TAYSIDE REGION FROM THE ENGLISH BORDER WESTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO BUDDON NESS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COASTS OF COUNTIES MAYO...SLIGO...LEITRIM...AND DONEGAL FROM BENWEE HEAD EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER.
* THE COASTS OF COUNTIES WEXFORD...WICKLOW...DUBLIN...MEATH...AND LOUTH FROM CAHORE POINT NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN IRISH BORDER.
* NORTHERN IRELAND.
* THE COASTS OF DYFED COUNTY...GWYNEDD COUNTY...CLWYD COUNTY...CHESHIRE COUNTY...MERSEYSIDE COUNTY...LANCASHIRE COUNTY...CUMBRIA COUNTY...DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY REGION...STRATHCLYDE REGION...HIGHLAND REGION...GRAMPIAN REGION...AND TAYSIDE REGION FROM CEMMAES HEAD NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...NORTHWARD...EASTWARD...SOUTHWESTWARD...EASTWARD...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO BUDDON NESS.
* THE COASTS OF LINCOLNSHIRE COUNTY...HUMBERSIDE COUNTY...NORTH YORKSHIRE COUNTY...CLEVELAND COUNTY...DURHAM COUNTY...TYNE AND WEAR COUNTY...AND NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY FROM GIBRALTAR POINT NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SCOTTISH BORDER.
* THE ISLE OF MAN.
* THE WESTERN ISLES.
* THE ORKNEY ISLANDS.
* THE SHETLAND ISLANDS.
* THE ISLANDS OF ARRAN...BUTE...ISLAY...JURA...COLONSAY...MULL...AND TIREE.
* THE ISLE OF SKYE.
* THE ISLANDS OF ANGLESEY...COLL...RUM...EIGG...RAASAY...AND SCALPAY.
* ALL MINOR ISLANDS ADJOINING THESE SHORES.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 0500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 55.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 3.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH SEA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IGOR PASSES OVER THE NORTH SEA...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...64 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 75 MPH...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 90 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PARTS OF SCOTLAND LYING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN IRELAND...SCOTLAND...NORTH WALES...AND NORTHERN ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SHETLAND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...3 TO 4 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER IRELAND...SCOTLAND...AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENGLAND...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE BRITISH ISLES TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SHETLAND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN IRELAND...NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ENGLAND...NORTH WALES...SCOTLAND...AND THE ORKNEY ISLANDS...THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING IN THE SHETLAND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN SCOTLAND...NORTHEASTERN ENGLAND...THE NETHERLANDS...NORTHWESTERN GERMANY...THE FRISIAN ISLANDS...WESTERN DENMARK...SOUTHWESTERN NORWAY...THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF ICELAND...AND THE ORKNEY...SHETLAND...AND FAROE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN IRELAND...NORTH WALES...WESTERN SCOTLAND...THE ISLE OF MAN...AND NORTHWESTERN ENGLAND...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY FINISHED BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...0200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

--------------------

From Thousand Year Storm: Hurricane Igor and its Aftermath, by Meryl Fitzgavin, and Blue Giant: The Rise and Fall of Stephen Harper, by Suzanne Adams:

...In contrast to the rapid, well-orchestrated response in the United States, the Canadian government's response to Igor was a veritable tragedy of errors, botches, and fiascos. Despite the declaration of a state of emergency over all of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, the entire island of Newfoundland, and large portions of eastern Quebec and southern Labrador, and allocation of military personnel to aid in relief, recovery, and reconstruction efforts (nicknamed the "three Rs"), dubbed Operation Baritone, aid to communities devastated by Igor was very often exceedingly slow in arriving. As Halloween came and went, large portions of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island still lay in ruins, those of their residents who had not been able to evacuate in time forced to live in tent cities exposed to the rapidly cooling weather...

...Provincial authorities were overwhelmed by the immense scope of the damage caused by Igor, and were rapidly forced to request federal aid; however, while aid was promised, it was slow in arriving, and the local and provincial emergency services faced critical shortages of vital equipment and materials, in some cases delaying recovery efforts by months...

...As the most visible symbol of the federal government by far, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his ruling Conservative Party came under intense criticism from MPs of all political stripes and from many in the provincial governments of the eastern provinces, while Gilles Duceppe and his separatist Bloc Québécois also came under fire for maintaining their support for an independent and sovereign Quebec even as much of eastern Quebec still struggled to repair the damage done by Igor, with more than one Bloc MP making comments to the effect that asking for or accepting federal aid would be tantamount to treason against Quebec, and that the province should be perfectly capable of rebuilding on its own...

...As federal aid to the devastated East continued to slowly, slowly trickle in, even the Conservatives began to turn away from Harper, seeing him and his remaining loyalists as a sinking ship that would drag them down with it unless they got out while they still had the chance; as a result, many Conservatives started to join in the attacks on Harper's failures. Harper quickly exerted his power as Conservative Party leader, expelling the errant MPs from the party caucus; this did not deter them, however, and on 5 November, a group of eight formerly-Conservative, newly-independent MPs announced the formation of the New Reform Party, an economically liberal but socially-conservative party regarding the capital-C Conservatives as a rotten corpse stuck in the past and led by a failed Calgary mail-sorter...

...As Harper's approval ratings and those of his government continued to plummet, and those of the Liberals and New Democrats surged, some extremely conservative Western Canadians, especially those from Alberta and to a lesser degree Saskatchewan, began to consider jumping ship from the whole mess and contemplating Western Canadian separatism, as many, especially in Alberta, had started to see the eastern provinces as an albatross around their necks, and worse, an albatross standing over them and using its huge population advantage to shove the prairie provinces around like a schoolyard bully, forcing them to pay the price of Eastern failures, a state of affairs that saw the separatist Western Block Party's support go up like a rocket and convinced a few and then more, mainly Albertan, Conservatives and ex-Conservatives to jump ship to them...

...The morning of 23 November dawned clear and very cold in Ottawa, and Harper's political career was about to get colder yet, as that day, Leader of the Official Opposition and Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff proposed, to widespread acclaim, a motion of no confidence in Harper's government, an event which did not quite strike the Conservatives like a bolt from the blue, given that there had been mutterings to that effect for weeks beforehand, but which was a harsh shock nonetheless. A vote on the motion was set for the 25th...

...Harper waited anxiously as the MPs cast their votes on whether his government should remain or fall, and, deep down, doubted whether his current government could survive the vote, but the final result exceeded even his worst fears, as the assembled membership of the 40th Canadian Parliament voted, by an immense margin of 211 for to 97 against, to bring down Harper's government, with over a sixth of the remaining 117 Conservative MPs voting against the party line and casting their votes to bring about the fall of their own party's government...

...Having only one other choice left open to him, and that other choice, resigning the Prime Ministership and allowing the opposition to form a coalition government, being utterly unpalatable to him and his remaining loyalists, Harper asked Governor-General Michaëlle Jean, the day after the vote of no confidence, to dissolve Parliament and drop the writs for Canada's forty-first general election to the House of Commons, with an election date set for 8 January 2011...

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Bump... anyone still interested?

 

[Lycaon pictus]

Definitely. Looks like it's headed for Norway next.

Interesting political fallout in Canada. In the U.S., the Republicans will take any excuse to make Obama look bad, but the aftermath of a natural disaster is about the worst possible time to be advocating smaller government.

So now we find out just how ready the British Isles were.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

please continue.

 

[Unknown]

This is very interesting, but I would like to know the effects on sports in New England and the mid-Atlantic states (and eastern Canada).

How badly did the New York City area fare ITTL?

If you could find some way to kill off Adam Lanza, this would butterfly away Sandy Hook.

Have Wendy Davis make an appearance ITTL.

(Just so you know, Wendy Davis is the state senator from Fort Worth who's running for governor (who may have ended any chance she had of becoming governor with that wheelchair ad) and she is a native of Rhode Island originally (her family moved to Texas when she was 12), so Igor would be close to home for her.)

 

[RamscoopRaider]

If you could find some way to kill off Adam Lanza, this would butterfly away Sandy Hook.

Lanza is probably surviving this, Newtown is both inland and in Western Connecticut, the worst of the storm would have been much further east, and his mother was a paranoid survivalist, first sign of a hurricane they would be safe in a basement, and his house was 5-700 feet above sea level, and several hundred feet above Lake Zoar, and Yogananda street is a minor side road with the trees cleared well back

 

[New Potomac]

Certainly seems Harper is leading the Conservatives into the abyss. I doubt we'll see a NDP surge like we did OTL but I wonder if it's for them to do well enough to relegate the Conservatives into third place.

 

[The Sandman]

I suppose the amount of storm surge in the North Sea could end up being an important element to Igor's European tour. Both London and Amsterdam could see some nasty flooding depending on how that pans out.

For that matter, just how badly hit were the British Isles in the last few posts?

 

[Alternate History Geek]

UPDATE INCOMING!

--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 25 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 72
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010

...IGOR ALMOST FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT RACES NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NORWEGIAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...64.6N 5.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...241 KM WNW OF TRONDHEIM NORWAY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...58 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOGN OG FJORDANE FROM LAVIK NORTHWARD TO SELJE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 64.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 5.1 EAST. THIS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND EAST THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE NORWEGIAN COASTLINE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER FAR NORTHERN NORWAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IGOR BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN VERY SOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT NORTHERN NORWAY SOON...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...0500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN

--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 26 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 73
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0500 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010

...IGOR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...


SUMMARY OF 0500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...67.2N 8.2E
ABOUT 160 MI...257 KM SW OF MOSKENESØYA NORWAY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...58 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 67.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 8.2 EAST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER FAR NORTHERN NORWAY AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IGOR MOVES OVER FAR NORTHERN SCANDINAVIA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 135 MILES...215 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND VERY NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START TO OCCUR IN FAR NORTHERN NORWAY SOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

RAINFALL...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN NORWAY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NORWAY THROUGHOUT TODAY...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER MONDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IGOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN

--------------------

From Thousand Year Storm: Hurricane Igor and its Aftermath, by Meryl Fitzgavin, and The Founding of Euro-TCWO, by Caroline Jones:

...The British and Irish emergency services rushed to respond to the disaster that had wrecked large parts of Scotland and Ireland and caused considerable damage to even more of the British Isles, rescue crews and ambulances from the Republic of Ireland rushing across the border without hesitation to aid their overwhelmed counterparts in Northern Ireland, just as they had done when much of Belfast was set aflame by German bombs during World War II...

...The worst damage of all occurred in the areas surrounding Donegal Bay on the northwestern coast of Ireland, where Igor had made landfall as a powerful Category 2 hurricane, its eye moving ashore over Ballyshannon at the mouth of the Erne; in the southernmost parts of County Donegal, not a single road survived, all having been wiped out by Igor's large storm surge, washed out by the storm's torrential rain, or rendered impassable by the thousands of massive trees blown down onto them by the powerful winds, consequently forcing rescue crews to either move about by helicopter or transit along the few undamaged roads in the western part of Northern Ireland...

...Prime Minister David Cameron and Speaker of the Northern Irish Assembly, recognising the disaster zone that Igor had made Northern Ireland into, both praised the Irish readiness to help their neighbours north of the border, and if any Unionist Assemblymen or MPs held unsavoury opinions of the intervention by the Irish emergency services, they kept those opinions to themselves in the face of widespread popular support for the Irish actions...

...Scotland, though not as badly damaged as northern Ireland, still took quite a hit from the powerful storm, which delivered hurricane-force winds, along with quite considerable amounts of rain, to virtually all of the densely-populated Forth-Clyde belt, including both Edinburgh and Glasgow, and temporarily making ground travel from England to the Highlands virtually impossible except for emergency personnel; the Scottish National Party, under Alex Salmond, experienced a significant drop in support as many Scotsmen realized that an independent Scotland would never have been able to withstand a hit like this on its own...

...Even after Igor stormed across the northern British Isles and turned north, it was still not done, for the tropical storm, still refusing to become extratropical, lashed parts of western Norway with damaging winds and rain, causing five deaths, three of them from mudslides when steep, rain-soaked hillsides gave way...

...Aid for Ireland and the United Kingdom quickly poured in from the rest of the European Union, and this more than likely served as the primary catalyst for Norway's fourth application to join the EU, which was accepted the following June...

...It can truthfully be said that there was not a single person in all of Europe, with the possible exception of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who did not fervently hope, deep down in their hearts, that Igor was a one-off, a freak of nature, a thousand-year event; after all, it was only the third tropical cyclone ever to strike Europe since record-keeping of North Atlantic tropical cyclones began in 1851, after Hurricane Debbie brushed northwestern Ireland in 1966 at Category 1 strength just prior to becoming extratropical, and Hurricane Vince struck southern Spain in 2005 as a tropical depression at the very end of its lifespan. However, those hopes would be dashed when Hurricane Nicole struck Galicia and then cut a swathe of destruction across western France that October, and Hurricane Lee devastated the Azores and then smashed through Lisbon late the following August, and consequently the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly in November 2011 to create the European Tropical Cyclone Warning Office, or Euro-TCWO for short, to monitor all North Atlantic tropical cyclones north of the 30th parallel North and east of the 30th meridian West, and issue maritime and coastal advisories for any posing a threat to human life and\or property...

 

[Dan1988]

I'm calling bull on Providence getting flooded, in part because the Fox Point hurricane barrier was specifically designed to withstand a hurricane of that magnitude (mainly as a response to both the 1938 hurricane and Hurricane Carol). However, I can imagine the blowback from the lowering of the barrier onto Cranston, Warwick, East Providence, and the like. The wind would be a problem, as would the tornadoes, but downtown Providence should be fine.

 

[Alternate History Geek]

I'm calling bull on Providence getting flooded, in part because the Fox Point hurricane barrier was specifically designed to withstand a hurricane of that magnitude (mainly as a response to both the 1938 hurricane and Hurricane Carol). However, I can imagine the blowback from the lowering of the barrier onto Cranston, Warwick, East Providence, and the like. The wind would be a problem, as would the tornadoes, but downtown Providence should be fine.

Remember that Providence is still getting several feet of rain, barrier or no barrier.

EDIT: Apart from being flattened by extreme winds, several feet of rain, and several tornadoes, yes, downtown Providence is fine.

And the rest of Narragansett Bay gets it even worse than you estimated - I just remembered about all the massive amounts of rain falling over the entire Blackstone River watershed. All that water's gotta go somewhere...

 

[King of the Uzbeks]

Interesting.

 

[Dub_Phil]

Ah frack, I think you've at least made me need a new roof in this TL

Minor nitpick, there are no railways to be destroyed in southern Donegal, closest would be the Dublin-Sligo line and the Belfast-Derry line.

Just taking a quick guestimate at the damage on Ireland.
Destroyed: Bundoran, Ballyshannon, Eniskillen, Omagh, Donegal Town, Sligo
Heavily damaged: Derry, Letterkenny, Balina, Carrick on Shannon.
Flooded: Limerick, Galway, Westport, Belfast, Newry, Dundalk, Drogheda, Balbriggan, Skerries, Rush, Donabate, Malahide, Portmarnock, Howth, Dublin.

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Ah frack, I think you've at least made me need a new roof in this TL

Minor nitpick, there are no railways to be destroyed in southern Donegal, closest would be the Dublin-Sligo line and the Belfast-Derry line.

Just taking a quick guestimate at the damage on Ireland.
Destroyed: Bundoran, Ballyshannon, Eniskillen, Omagh, Donegal Town, Sligo
Heavily damaged: Derry, Letterkenny, Balina, Donegal Town.
Flooded: Limerick, Galway, Westport, Belfast, Newry, Dundalk, Drogheda, Balbriggan, Skerries, Rush, Donabate, Malahide, Portmarnock, Howth, Dublin.

Donegal Town would also be destroyed, not merely heavily damaged. Remember, Igor made landfall at Ballyshannon as a Category 2 hurricane - Donegal Town would have been hit directly by the eyewall, the most powerful part of the storm.

EDIT: Oh, you got it, I see. (You've still got Donegal Town listed as "heavily damaged" as well as "destroyed", tho!)

Anyway, you're right about the railroads. Oops, will fix.

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Oh, and Igor is now officially the deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, with a death toll exceeding that of the Great Hurricane of 1780 by quite a significant margin.

 

[Dub_Phil]

Oh, and Igor is now officially the deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, with a death toll exceeding that of the Great Hurricane of 1780 by quite a significant margin.

What is the deathtoll out of morbid curiosity?

 

[Alternate History Geek]

What is the deathtoll out of morbid curiosity?

Direct fatalities: 19,406 in the United States, 5,912 in Canada, 2,268 in Bermuda, 315 in the United Kingdom, 168 in the Republic of Ireland, 25 from a cargo vessel caught north of Bermuda, 17 from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft downed south of Bermuda, 7 in the Bahamas, 3 in Norway, 3 in the Dominican Republic, 3 in Iceland, 2 in Denmark, 1 in Haiti, 1 in Puerto Rico, 1 in Antigua and Barbuda, 1 in Sint-Maarten, 1 in the Turks and Caicos Islands, 1 in the Netherlands, and 1 in Sweden. Total: 28,136.

Indirect fatalities: 290 in the contiguous United States, 67 in Canada, 28 in the United Kingdom, 20 in the Republic of Ireland, and 2 in Norway. Total: 407.

Grand total: 28,543 dead as a result of Igor.

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Today's update - I'm very sorry that I couldn't get one up yesterday!

"Before Igor came, we honestly thought it would take an act of God to keep the Republicans from controlling Congress - after Igor, well, we had our act of God!"

- Anonymous interviewee who worked for Representative Jim Oberstar (D\MN-08)'s reelection campaign

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From Obama's Reprieve: Igor, Gaffes, and Conspiracy-Theorist Senators in the 2010 Congressional Elections, by Patrick McShannon:

...Prior to Igor, the prospects for President Obama's proposed healthcare bill seemed quite bleak indeed. With the election of Republican Scott Brown to replace recently-deceased longrunner Ted Kennedy, the Democrats had lost their supermajority in the Senate, leaving them vulnerable to a Republican filibuster should they attempt to force the bill through Congress, and the Republicans seemed poised to make further gains in the November midterm elections, giving them their first serious chance since 2006 to break the Democratic Party's control of the two houses of Congress, an event that would certainly have sounded the death knell for Obama's hopes of healthcare reform...

...Igor changed the situation dramatically, as the Democrats' sacred cow and the Republicans' devil incarnate, i.e. big government, was beautifully vindicated by the rapid, well-coordinated FEMA and National Guard response to the devastation wrought New England and to a lesser extent the Mid-Atlantic states, serving as a testament to the major overhauls and massive reform it underwent in the wake of 2005's Hurricane Katrina, turning it from an organisation unable to effectively respond even to a landfalling Category 3 hurricane into one that rapidly delivered huge amounts of much-needed aid to the areas battered by a hurricane two categories up from Katrina, and far larger to boot...

...The unmitigated success of the FEMA response to Igor forced an abrupt about-face by the Republican Party, which to a large degree abandoned its small-government rhetoric for the time being, choosing instead to focus on its social-conservative rhetoric, reliable for getting the Christian core of the party hot and bothered and voting to keep the Republicans in power. Democratic, independent, and even moderate Republican voters did not forget what the Republican party line had been previously saying, however, and this badly damaged their already-wounded public image yet again and cast them, in many voters' eyes, as a set of flip-floppers stuck in the last century, who constantly chose policies doomed to fail and just as constantly had to abandon them when they proved worthless at best and lethal at worst...

...The many rogue Republicans who refused to follow the new party line and instead continued to praise to high heaven the blessings of minimal government, mostly running in seats thought to be safe Republican bastions, were no better off, as many of their constituents paid more attention to Igor than the clueless conservative candidates thought they did, resulting in several of those seats falling to Democrats for the first times in decades, or even their first times, period, the seats previously having been filled by Republicans ever since their creation...

...Faced with almost certain defeat, many Republicans pulled out weapons of desperation, many of them long shots at best and career-killers at worst; for nearly all of the desperate Republicans, they proved the latter, as evidenced by three Republican Representatives who were turfed out of office by voters sickened by rabid anti-abortion rhetoric spouted by Congressmen far more socially conservative than their constituents, by a Senator whose enthusiastic conspiracy-theorizing about everything from the September 11 attacks to the Holocaust resulted in his loss in a landslide to his Democratic challenger, and by a Representative who spouted enthusiastic pro-gun rhetoric as his constituents watched armed looters running wild in shattered Nova Scotian cities on the evening news, and who was most certainly not reelected...

...Unsurprisingly, the Republicans, once thought to have a good chance of seizing the House - and possibly the Senate as well - back from the Democrats, were instead trounced by the President's party, falling from 179 Representatives and 40 Senators to 95 Representatives and 28 Senators, with every single Republican Senator up for reelection being turned out of office with the sole exception of Arizona Senator and Vietnam War veteran John McCain, who was narrowly reelected with just 42.2% of the votes cast. The Democrats, once thought to be facing a losing battle, instead won a massive victory, going from 256 Representatives and 58 Senators to 318 Representatives and 70 Senators, with only a single previously-Democratic seat being lost to the Republicans (a North Dakota Senate seat whose incumbent had chosen not to run for reelection, allowing Republican Governor John Hoeven to scrape through with 55% of the vote), giving the Democrats a vetoproof (greater than two-thirds) majority in both houses of Congress (not that they would realistically face a high risk of a veto, what with the President being a Democrat), and the Greens, once thought to be a fringe party with little chance of ever having a breakout electoral victory and winning a Congressional seat, went from having not a single Party member anywhere in Congress to having 18 Representatives in the House, while four independents also made it into the House (neither of the two independents in the Senate, both New Englanders and survivors of Igor, were up for election in 2010)...

...Thanks to the newfound public perception that climate change had made Igor a far more dangerous storm than could never have happened had mankind not started pumping massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the air, a position supported by a great deal of scientific research, the Green Party also made a very good showing in the election, winning its first-ever seats in the House of Representatives and coming very close to electing a Senator, South Carolinian Tom Clements, only losing by 22 votes to Democrat Alvin Greene, while the Republican incumbent came a distant and miserable third...

...With the massive Democratic victory in the wake of Igor, Obama was able to push through Congress a healthcare reform package far more radical than anything he could have even dreamed of passing had one or both houses of Congress fallen to the Republicans, or even had the Senate stayed as it was, and his package was made even more radical by numerous amendments tacked on as it went through the two houses of Congress, the final version, which the President signed without hesitation, giving the United States a national, taxpayer-funded health service similar to the British NHS...

 

[Unknown]

Oh, yes, the Tea Party smackdown is lovely!!!

Please tell me you got rid of the governor of Texas, Rick Perry, in this landslide defeat.

As a Texas Democrat, that would be good.

Hope Solomon Ortiz was one of those who kept his seat (he lost it in OTL by just 700 votes).

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Oh, yes, the Tea Party smackdown is lovely!!!

Please tell me you got rid of the governor of Texas, Rick Perry, in this landslide defeat.

As a Texas Democrat, that would be good.

Hope Solomon Ortiz was one of those who kept his seat (he lost it in OTL by just 700 votes).

Why sure!

Rick Perry is still Governor of Texas for the time being, but Bill White is Governor-Elect.

As for Ortiz, the Democrats did not lose a single seat to the Republicans in either the House or the Senate.