Orange Tempest

I do so love meteorological PODs.:D The POD here hasn't happened yet, but it's coming...

--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov)[/noparse], 8 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010

...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO..AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.

DATA FROM A MICROWAVE SATELLITE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

NNNN


--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 10 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010

...IGOR EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 29.3W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN
 
Last edited:
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 11 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...IGOR STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE FOURTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 42.5W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IGOR COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN


--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 12 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR VERY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

NNNN


--------------------

And here we have the POD.:D Try and see if you can spot it...
 
Last edited:
Orange Tempest...

I think I spotted it. The PoD is that Igor OTL was a Category 4, but it only had 145 mile-per-hour winds.

Waiting for more, of course.:D
 
Orange Tempest...

I think I spotted it. The PoD is that Igor OTL was a Category 4, but it only had 145 mile-per-hour winds.

Waiting for more, of course.:D

Actually, at this point in OTL, Igor only had 135-mph winds, but otherwise, you're spot on!:D:)

Just so everyone else knows, the initial POD is that Igor is intensifying even faster than OTL on the morning of the 12th. And it isn't finished, not by a long shot...
 
Igor just keeps getting stronger...

--------------------

From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 13 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...IGOR INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.8W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 55 MILES...90 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
 
Last edited:
Doesn't weater POD go into ASB? But I like your progress so far.

Climate PODs are ASB (barring a nuclear winter or something else on that scale). Weather PODs, however, are not. The general pattern is very butterfly-resistant, but the individual events are quite easy to tweak. There's a reason why the term "butterfly effect" was first coined by a meteorologist.
 
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 14 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...IGOR STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 53.9W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...280
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...115 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 909 MB...26.84 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN
 
Last edited:
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 15 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010

...IGOR STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 56.5W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...290 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB...26.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 180 MPH...290 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 899 MB...26.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SWELLS WILL ALSO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN
 
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 16 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...IGOR PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY...GOOD DATA COLLECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 58.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH...275 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 170 MPH...275 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...235 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...605 KM. IGOR PASSED NEAR NOAA BUOY 41044 AND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 143 MPH...230 KM/HR....WITH GUSTS TO 169 MPH...272 KM/HR DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM THE NOAA BUOY IS 905 MB...26.72 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO CAUSE INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WORSENING RAPIDLY AS IGOR APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN
 
This does look scary. I'm worried about people I know in a certain region...
And I might be asked to help support the response directly or indirectly with CAP...
 
a genuine cat 5 hitting just about ANYWHERE on the US east coast in 2010 could be a $100 Billion total repair bill.
 
From the National Hurricane Center website ([noparse]www.nhc.noaa.gov[/noparse]), 17 September 2010:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

...EXTREMELY LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE IGOR STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORSEN RAPIDLY AS IGOR APPROACHES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...WHILE GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY.

IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 MILES...360 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 565 MILES...910 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...115 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 909 MB...26.84 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 60 TO 80 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...BERMUDA...AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL ALSO REACH NOVA SCOTIA...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN


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If anyone's wondering why Igor has suddenly grown much larger, and why it briefly weakened sharply, it's because Igor has just undergone an eyewall replacement cycle. Although most hurricanes wouldn't normally bounce back this quickly and readily, Igor became an annular hurricane as a result of the eyewall replacement cycle, something that happens to about 1% or so of Atlantic hurricanes. Annular hurricanes, unfortunately for Bermuda, tend to stay very strong for a long time, and weaken only slowly, even when they move over colder ocean waters.
 
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