TL-191: Filling the Gaps

hey everyone, I was curious as to what the potential populations for the US and CS could have been around 1914 so I decided to try to give it a shot.

Now finding census information for 1914 proved too lacking to be effective so I did the next best thing and used 1910 as a base.

I took all the info for the US and CS respective states and added them, then used the increase from 1910 to 1914 for OTL's us as another base and added that to both. Since I figured that the US would probably receive the same amount of immigrants as per otl while the CS would as well (namely barely any.)

So what i found (assuming this is all correct) is that the populations were oddly more even than I expected.

basically the US population was somewhere in the range of 70,000,000 while the Confederacy was somewhere in the range of 30/35,000,000 to maybe even 40 if I remember correctly as I didn't save it.

Now what amazed me most of all is that I assumed the US population would be much higher while the CS would be much lower. So this makes the length of the war seem less ridiculous

Curiously these both are similar to the respective populations of Germany and France around this time.

Of course this is assuming I did the math right.
 
Playing around with the census figures I had the OTL CSA population in 1910 around I got 29.36 million. The the states that make up the CSA+ Cuba+ Chihuahua+ Sonora=29.36 million.
OTL Population 1910 in millions:
Virginia=2.1
N.Carolina= 2.2
S.Carolina=1.5
Georgia=2.6
Florida=0.8
Kentucky= 2.3
Tennessee= 2.2
Alabama=2.1
Mississippi= 1.8
Louisiana= 1.7
Arkansas=1.6
Texas=3.9
Oklahoma= 1.7(Sequoyah)
Sonora=0.265
Chihuahua=0.405
Cuba=2.2

ThenIi factored that in OTL the southern states lost a substantial amount of their population to immigration westward this can be attributed to a declining economy and i desire not to live under US rule after the civil war. CSA would have kept this population. There would have also probably would have been a higher birth rate, because of the increased prosperity. Then there would have been less deaths in the War of Secession than the OTL Civil War. Then you have to figure in the population growth for 4 years. In the OTL census figures there wasnt much growth in the south between 1910-1920. The TL-191 CSA would have a high of 35 million, but i would put it would probabaly be around 31-35 million. I then split the difference, 33 million.

I can't remember if the books say the USA outnumbers the CSA more than 2-1 or the US outnumbers the CS and Canada more than 2-1? Canada's population in 1914 is 7,879,000.

I have been operating under the premises the US outnumbers just the CSA 2-1.
so Here is my break down.
USA= 72 Million
CSA= 33 Million
CAN= 7,879,000.

The US population is the US minus the southern states. To grow to a population of around 73 million, the US required an uninterrupted stream of immigration. To attract the same number of immgrants or more, the standard of living must be comperable to OTL US standard of living. This means that the rationing policy cannot undermine the US standard of living. Thus in the pre-war periods it was mostly restricted to strategically vital war materials like; steel, coal; nitrates etc…

Why did the Great War Last Three Years?
The underlying question is why did the great war last three years? The point of my artillery and Upton (too be completed) articles is to hint why it lasted three years. I think: Poor US decision making at the outset of the war and spreading its resources too thin was a major problem. The average CSA infantry unit was better trained and that CSA was more militarized. Finally that the war and technology favored defensive operations.

When working on my war entries, I assumed that Turtledove had the CSA being roughly the equivalent of OTL France. The US then is the equivalent of OTL Germany. In my opinion with a reduced British presence OTL France would have collapsed in 1917.

It is arguable that by the end of the series, Turtledove had the USA= UK and France and the CSA= Germany. This explains the technological growth of the US as compared to the CSA. Most importantly it sets up the WW2 comparison for the CSA & Nazi Germany.

Personally I think the US is an amalgamation of the US and Imperial Germany. So its Germany plus our OTL economy, giving us more tanks and trucks. The CSA is most like OTL france, with a more US like economy.Either way the 33-35 milion CSA can't win.
 
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IIRC the "number" of persons born "not in the US" shows that the South was least attractive to immigrants OTL.

That might be different in TL-191.

I believe the different "culture" of the TL-191 USA might affect immigration.

Would a more militaristic and regulated society attract the same number of immigrants as OTL US?

BUt even OTL numners would give a different picture

(1910)

CSA (including Cuba and Son/Chi) around 29.2 Million inhabitants (9.7 colored)
USA (minus CSA, Hawaii and Alaska) around 65,3 million inhabitants

Canada (1911) around 7.2 Million

So in total number the US is ahead not fully 2-1 (1-1,79)

You must take into account that around 1 in three men was black within the CSA that reduces the number of whites to 19,5 and increases the "force ratio" to 1-2,45

Lets translate this into Army sizes (I assume a "conscription rate" of 10% -

The US army amasses around 6,5 million soldiers vs CSA (Whites) 2,0 Million and Canada 700.000 lats also assume UK can send a few units to Canada (200K) and Utah is in rebellion (370k inhabitants lets assume 90% are mormons in rebellion and 30% are "in arms" that adds 100k rebells)

What size has the red rebellion within the CSA 9.7 Millions black - assume around 25% are in rebellion and 20% of those are "fit to fight" that makes 500.000 black rebells

so we get a fighting force of
USA+Red Rebells 7.000.000 "fighters"
CSA+Canada+UK+Mormons 3.000.000

Man - I had forgotten the Empire of Mexico (13.2 Million inhabitants) - as the Empire only borders on a small strip with the US I assume mobilisation is much lower - 5% (?) 600k more soldiers.

What you can also assume that the CSA has black laborers for its army that ""add" to the "mobilized strength" (even if that are only cooks, haulers and the like) Lets assume 5% of the (not rebelling blacks 75%) that adds around 350k to the "Entente" forces.

In the end it comes out to and advantage of around 2-1 for the CPs in America. Assuming that the Entente is "defending" mostly and attacking only if its convenient this should give the US just enough advantage to win in the long run. Usually you need a local 3-1 advantage to uproot a dug in enemy.

OTL the Entente mobilized 42 Million soldiers during WWI and the CPs mobilized around 25 Million (around 1,7/1) and needed 4 years to win vs 3 years for the CP in TL-191. IMHO thats plausible.
 

bguy

Donor
Also any thoughts on the last entry of the N.A. Artillery? Did i lock the war down to too many dates or f*** up any important people? I'm thinking about a WWI-WWII Barrel entry, but I'm not as strong on OTL Barrel history as I am Artillery.

I liked getting to see what General Ironhewer was up to in the First Great War. And I've enjoyed all of the Artillery entries for how they've highlighted each side's overall strategy during the war. Now we just need something similar for the war at sea.
 

bguy

Donor
Aldrich, Nelson (1841-1915)
Part 3


While he had spoken little of his foreign policy plans during the presidential election, Nelson Aldrich entered the Presidency with a vision that he would bring about a rapprochement with the Entente nations and in particular the Confederate States. Aldrich believed rapprochement would lead to a new era of prosperity by allowing for greatly expanded US trade with the Confederate States while also allowing for the US to finally reduce defense spending and instead devote its resources to economic development. Greater prosperity would in turn remove the appeal of the radical movements, and thus also give the United States domestic tranquility.


The time seemed ideal for such an initiative. Confederate President James “Champ” Clark (who had assumed office the previous year) also favored improving relations between the two nations. Clark had already made a friendly gesture towards the United States shortly after taking office when he had announced that the Confederate States would no longer permit its Indian citizens to raid the United States. At the time this announcement had been treated in the United States as a military victory over the Confederates (the stepped up US Army presence along the Kansas-Sequoyah border in fact had taken a fearsome toll on Indian raiders during the Mahan Administration.) Aldrich however believed that Clark’s policy shift was not an admission of military defeat but rather a diplomatic opening from the Confederates, which now that he was President he could reciprocate. And Aldrich knew exactly what he would give the Confederates to begin his Rapprochement policy.


Aldrich’s target was the Red Council, the leadership committee of revolutionary Marxist Confederate and Caribbean blacks living in political exile in the United States. The Red Council’s presence in the United States had long been a major diplomatic irritant to the Confederate States, as many members of the Council were wanted fugitive in Confederate territory and the Council continued to plan acts of sabotage and assassination throughout the Confederate States. The Reed and Mahan Administrations had both tolerated the presence of the Red Council in the United States, seeing it as a potential useful weapon to use against the CSA, but President Aldrich saw no reason to continue that policy. Several of the more radical members of the Council had spoken openly about red revolution being imminent in the United States during the recent financial crisis, so Aldrich saw this as a perfect opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: improving relations with the CSA while also removing a source of radical unrest from within the United States. Aldrich thus instructed his just confirmed Attorney General, former CID Director Joseph Cannon, to initiate deportation proceedings against all the foreign born members of the Red Council. (Aldrich did agree as a humanitarian gesture that the Confederate nationals on the Council would be exiled to Liberia rather than sent back to the CSA where they would have been certain to be executed.) The Red Council members would remain in exile from the United States until the outbreak of the First Great War at which point President Roosevelt would invite them to return.


Aldrich meanwhile was trying to fill the rest of his Cabinet. Most of the slots would go to Aldrich’s political allies, men like Andrew Mellon of Pennsylvania (made Secretary of the Treasury) and John Long of Massachusetts (made Secretary of the Navy), but remembering how President Blaine had gotten off to such a rocky start by passing over Roscoe Conkling for Secretary of State, Aldrich knew that he needed to appoint at least one of the militaristic “Mahan Democrats” to the Cabinet. Aldrich did not feel he could afford a Mahan Democrat in the Secretary of State position though, since that role would be so critical in pushing his planned Rapprochement policy. Thus Aldrich did offer a Cabinet position to Senator Beveridge (the leading Mahan Democrat at the time), but instead of offering Beveridge the Secretary of State position Aldrich offered him Secretary of War. (The Secretary of State position would instead go to William Rufus King, the current Ambassador to the Confederate States, and a firm supporter of Rapprochement.) Beveridge, still bitter over losing the presidential nomination to Aldrich, and doubting he would have any real influence within the Aldrich Administration, loftily declined the post, insisting he could better serve the country by continuing in the Senate. Henry Cabot Lodge would then also decline (Lodge strongly disagreed with Aldrich’s decision to deport the Red Council). Aldrich was unwilling to appoint Theodore Roosevelt to a position in the Cabinet, and so the Secretary of War position finally went to New York businessman William Rockefeller, Jr, a compromise choice that did little to placate the Mahan Democrats.


Aldrich’s crackdown on the Red Council received a favorable reaction from the CSA, and it would be followed up later that year with Aldrich expanding access to US universities for Confederate citizens, and reaching an agreement for a series of sports and cultural exchanges between the two nations. Aldrich would also begin negotiating a new commercial treaty with the CSA that would see each side extend Most Favored Nation trading status to the other (though this treaty would not be finalized until the following year.)


Aldrich also began to shrink the US Army as he believed the million man army created by Chief of Staff Upton was wildly excessive to what the country actually needed to defend itself and that having such a large army would make it impossible to achieve good relations with the Entente nations. (Aldrich also hoped that if the US gradually reduced the size of its army that would motivate the Confederates and Canadians to do the same.) Aldrich thus utilized his existing executive authority to tighten eligibility standards for being accepted into the military, while also expanding the scope of occupational and education exemptions to conscription. (The expanded educational exemptions would be heavily criticized by the Socialists who claimed it was just a way to exempt the children of the rich from the draft.) Aldrich would achieve considerable success at shrinking the Army through this policy of relaxed draft standards (over the course of his presidency, the US Army was reduced from nearly a million men down to just 800,000), but he was disappointed in his hope that the Confederates and Canadians would likewise relax their own conscription laws. The Aldrich troop reductions have become very controversial since the First Great War with Remembrance advocates blaming them for the US Army’s initial defeats on the Eastern front in that conflict (Theodore Roosevelt’s own presidential memoirs insist that if not for these reductions the war would have been won by 1915), though Aldrich’s supporters insist the fault was President Roosevelt’s for relying upon an outdated battle plan that required a bigger army than what the United States had available.


Aldrich would also face a second major foreign policy issue that year when German Kaiser Wilhelm II sought to undermine French influence in Morocco. Aldrich, who was just starting to make progress with his Rapprochement policy, strongly disagreed with the Kaiser’s aggressive actions in Morocco and made it clear to the Kaiser that the Quadruple Alliance was a defensive alliance only and thus the United States would not go to war to support German “adventurism” in Africa. The Kaiser facing a unified Entente and receiving little support from his allies finally backed down though he was personally wounded by Aldrich’s lack of support and relations would be cool between the two men thereafter. Aldrich also received heavy criticism from the Mahan Democrats throughout the Moroccan Crisis for failing to stand by Germany.


Nor was the Moroccan Crisis the only source of friction between Aldrich and the Mahan Democrats that first year. Reports that the British were building a revolutionary new battleship that would make all existing battleships obsolete led to a clamor amongst the Mahan Democrats for a new Naval bill to overhaul the American fleet. Senator Lodge thus proposed the 4 for 4 bill where the US would construct 4 dreadnoughts a year for the next 4 years. Aldrich, while accepting the necessity for building some dreadnoughts, was horrified at the proposed cost of Lodge’s bill. (Aldrich was planning for substantial tax cuts which would be impossible if the 4 for 4 bill was enacted.) Thus Aldrich insisted he would only support building 2 dreadnoughts a year for the next 4 years and would veto any bill beyond that. Aldrich would again face blistering criticism from the Mahan Democrats (while the Socialists and Republicans criticized him for funding any dreadnoughts at all), but Congress did ultimately only approve a 2 for 4 bill.


While Aldrich’s first year in office was predominantly occupied with foreign policy and defense considerations, Aldrich also had to deal with the ongoing labor unrest unleashed by the Panic of 1904. And to that end Aldrich, following the advice of Attorney General Cannon, would utilize a law he had once bitterly opposed, the Stevenson Anti-Trust Act. Aldrich agreed with his attorney general that industry wide unions constituted an illegal restraint of trade under the Stevenson Act and thus could be broken up. The Justice Department thus initiated a suit against Bill Haywood’s Congress of Industrial Workers. The United States Supreme Court would uphold the application of the Stevenson Anti-Trust Act against the IWC in Industrial Workers Congress v United States (1907) after which the IWC was disbanded and each of its constituent unions was forced to operate independently. Aldrich would thereafter aggressively employ the Stevenson Anti-Trust Act against “bad unions”, earning the sobriquet “Union-buster” for the 38 suits his administration would pursue against unions. (Aldrich was willing to tolerate “responsible unions” though, and so his administration never sought to break up Samuel Gomper’s American Labor Association.)


1906 would see Congress back in session, giving Aldrich the chance to push his legislative agenda. His legislative priority was to boast the American economy (still shaky after the Panic of 1904) with a new protective tariff/revenue bill. The Hanna-Fish Tariff that was enacted raised the United States’ already high tariff levels (then averaging about 50%) to a staggering nearly 60% average rate. (The highest tariff rate since the 1828 “Tariff of Abominations.”) The bill also slashed personal and corporate income taxes by 50%. (Aldrich had hoped to abolish those taxes altogether but failed to secure sufficient defense cuts to make that possible.) The new tariff was predictably met with a firestorm of criticism from foreign nations (equally infuriating the British and Germans.) Aldrich though was confident the new tariff would not damage his Rapprochement policy with the Confederates (the main country he was interested in improving relations with) since most of the CSA’s major export items (cotton, tobacco, sugar) were not affected by the tariff.

Aldrich would also push for the strongest anti-strike legislation yet. The Trade Disputes Act of 1906 made it illegal for government workers or workers in any of the strategic industries (munitions plants, shipyards, railways, dockyards, and power stations) to strike, made it illegal to advocate or assist an illegal strike, and enabled the President to declare a 90 day cooling off period for any strike the President believed threatened national security or the national economy. The Socialists were apoplectic with Socialist Congressman Eugene Debs denouncing the proposed legislation as a “Slave labor bill” and Bill Haywood vowing to be the first man imprisoned under it, and even many Republicans and Democrats thought the legislation went too far (Theodore Roosevelt would criticize it, insisting that the American working man had the right to strike), but the Democrat majority was sufficient in both houses to force the bill through. (True to his word Bill Haywood would be promptly arrested, convicted, and sentenced to 4 years imprisonment for advocating an illegal strike at the Illinois Central Railroad. (The Supreme Court would uphold Haywood’s conviction against a challenge to the constitutionality of the new law in Haywood v United States (1909)).


Aldrich would cap off a productive year by winning the ratification of his commercial treaty with the Confederate States. (Trade between the US and the CS would thereafter markedly increase.) But despite these legislative victories the 1906 mid-term elections would prove disappointing to Aldrich and the Democrats. There was a substantial backlash from left leaning and even moderate voters over Aldrich’s anti-union policies, while Democrat turnout would be rather subdued (the Mahan Democrats were dispirited by Aldrich’s defense and foreign policies). Thus while the Democrats still retained large majorities in both houses of Congress, their losses were sufficient that for the first time since 1885 they no longer had a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.


Aldrich was undaunted by this setback as he intended 1907 to see his most ambitious step yet in the Rapprochement policy: an international conference to end the burgeoning dreadnought race. The Philadelphia Naval Conference which convened that June would see representatives from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Austria-Hungary, Russia, Italy, the Ottoman Empire, Japan, and the Confederate States all attend. The conference caught the excitement of the world with even many Socialist and Republican newspapers (very temporarily) praising Aldrich. (Though Congressman Debs still criticized Aldrich, insisting that the “way to disarm is to disarm” and calling for the United States to unilaterally announce it would not build any further dreadnoughts.) Aldrich went into the conference with great hope that he would be able to end the dreadnought race before it truly got going. Unfortunately, his hopes would quickly be dashed.


The British (fully aware that Aldrich did not want to fund a large fleet of dreadnoughts) took a hard line in the proceedings right from the start, insisting that the dreadnought ratio between the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany would have to be 2:1:1. Aldrich himself was willing to consider that ratio, but Germany (with the Kaiser perhaps still smarting from Aldrich’s refusal to support him in the Morocco Crisis two years earlier) flatly refused to consider such an unfavorable ratio, and Senator Lodge likewise warned Aldrich that the U.S. Senate would never ratify any treaty with a ratio below 4:3:3. Aldrich would attempt to compromise with a 3:2:2 ratio, but that proved unacceptable to both the British and Germans. Aldrich would finally propose an agreement where the British could build up to 24 dreadnoughts, the United States would build up to 12, and Germany could build up to 18. (He also hinted that the United States might lower its tariff levels if the British and Germans would agree to the treaty.) The British though still refused to consider any treaty that would leave the United States and Germany with more dreadnoughts than they had, and so the conference broke up in failure.


Despite the failure of the Philadelphia Naval Conference, Aldrich resolved to run for reelection. He would be 67 years old at the time of his inauguration if he won a second term, the oldest President elected since William Henry Harrison, but Aldrich felt he had little choice. He had made some progress in Rapprochement with the Confederate States but those gains were fragile and would almost certainly be reversed if he was succeeded by the strongly anti-Confederate Albert Beveridge or Henry Cabot Lodge (the two men most likely to win the Democrat nomination if Aldrich did not stand for reelection.) Thus Aldrich prepared himself for one last campaign.


But first he had to get through the 1908 Congressional session and that session looked like it would be a difficult one for Aldrich. Public outrage at the deplorable sanitary conditions in the nation’s stockyards that had been revealed in an expose by young Baltimore journalist Harry Mencken the previous year, had led to a demand for new food and drug regulations. At the same time Senator Beveridge was making a concentrated push to enact legislation that would ban child labor.


Aldrich initially opposed the food and drug safety legislation. However, when the American Hippocrates Society came out in favor of the bill, Aldrich reluctantly concluded he had no choice but to support it. (Aldrich did not want to go into a presidential election with the nation’s doctors all aligned against him.)


But while Aldrich signed the food and drug safety bill into law, he held firm against the child labor bill which he feared would not only hurt American business competiveness but also would open the door to even greater regulations. The bill easily passed the House with the strong support of the House Speaker Henry Adams, but Aldrich, working closely with Ohio Senator Mark Hanna, was able to use his mastery of Senate procedures (and the extensive presidential patronage he controlled) to block the bill in the Senate. (A disgusted Theodore Roosevelt would in turn make banning child labor in New York the centerpiece of his gubernatorial campaign that year.)


As these legislative battles were being fought, the Socialists and Republicans convened to select their presidential candidates. The Socialists as expected again nominated (now) Senator Robert La Follette. [1] (The Wisconsin legislature having elected La Follette to the Senate in the aftermath of his defeat in the 1904 presidential race.) La Follette would aggressively attack Aldrich’s labor and tariff policies, while promising a wide range of political reforms and social welfare measures.


As for the Republicans after their convention deadlocked between two time former candidate Senator William Bryan and young California Governor Hiram Johnson, they ended up nominating a surprise Dark Horse candidate, former Democrat Philander Knox. Knox, a long time Democrat who had even served as Attorney General during President Mahan’s second term (where he had played an instrumental role in convincing the President to support the striking workers in the Anthracite Coal Stirke), had only left the Democrat Party two years earlier in protest of Aldrich’s anti-union policies which Knox considered to be extreme. The Republicans hoped that by nominating an easterner they might be able to overcome the perception of them as a regional western party and make some inroads into the vote rich eastern states, but Knox proved an ineffective campaigner, as his cautious, legalistic speaking style did little to excite voters.


Aldrich meanwhile tried to boost his own reelection prospects by lifting the rationing provisions as to meat and cotton. He also announced an agreement had been reached for a formal US alliance with Chile and Paraguay. (The treaty would be ratified by the Senate in the lame duck Congressional session early in 1909.) Aldrich otherwise did little active campaigning as he felt it was beneath the dignity of the office, and he was content to rely upon the country being prosperous and at peace (and the Democrat’s enormous campaign finance advantage) to carry him to victory.


Election Day would see Nelson Aldrich narrowly be reelected. Aldrich again carried 44% of the popular vote, sweeping the coastal states and carrying most of the Mid-West. La Follette though improved upon his 1904 showing by winning 40% of the vote while Knox lost ground for the Republicans and only won 14% of the vote. Aldrich had triumphed, but the Democrats saw much cause for concern in the election results. La Follette had broken through in the industrial Mid-West states, carrying Illinois and coming dangerously close in both Indiana and Ohio. (Flipping 50,000 votes in Ohio and less than 10,000 in Indiana would have given both states to La Follette and sent the election to the House of Representatives.) Furthermore, the Socialists had also made significant gains in the Congressional elections. (Though Aldrich was hardly heartbroken when the newly elected Socialist-Republican majority in the Indiana State Legislature voted Albert Beveridge out of office, even though it meant the ascension of Eugene Debs to the United States Senate.) [2] Theodore Roosevelt, just elected as Governor of New York, would declare these results proved the country wanted reform and that the Democrats must provide that reform or be supplanted by those who would. But Aldrich, while disappointed by the results, took comfort in the fact that he was still President, he still had large Democrat majorities in both houses of Congress, and he had another four years to enact his vision of peace.




[1] Craigo had Thomas Johnson as the Socialist candidate that year, but when I looked Johnson up, Wikipedia says he grew up in the South with his father having served in the Confederate Army. Thus I don't think it is likely Johnson would have moved to the US in TL-191, so Fighting Bob La Follette gets another shot at the presidency.



[2] A slight change here from Craigo's canon as he had Debs get elected to the Senate in 1906. However Indiana didn't have a scheduled Senate election that year, so I moved Debs' election back to 1908.
 
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Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840- 1914) [RE-EDIT]

Mahan was born on September 27, 1840 in West Point, New York to Dennis Hart Mahan (a professor at the United States Military Academy and Mary Helena Mahan. His middle name, Thayer, honors "the father of West Point", Sylvanus Thayer. Mahan grew up in West Point and attended boarding school. Mahan studied at Columbia for two years w then, against his parents' wishes, transferred to the Naval Academy, where he graduated second in his class in 1859.


Commissioned as a lieutenant in 1861, Mahan served the Union in the War of Secession as an officer on USS Worcester, Congress, Pocahontas, and James Adger and as an instructor at the Naval Academy. In 1865, he was promoted to lieutenant commander, and then to commander (1872), and captain (1885). Despite his success as a Naval theorist, his skills in actual command of a ship were not exemplary, and a number of vessels under his command were involved in collisions, with both moving and stationary objects. He had affection for old square-rigged vessels and did not like the smoky, noisy steamships of his time; he tried to avoid active sea duty. In the 1870s in various shore installations, he burned with resentment at what he saw as the insanely reckless policy of a small Navy supported by Democrat Presidents in the interwar period. After the Panic of 1875, President Cox sold several warships to foreign nations and halted naval construction. An outraged officer serving with the Lighthouse Board, Captain Mahan began putting his thoughts on the supremacy of seapower to paper that year. These writings would begin Mahan’s career as the most important naval theorist of the 19th and 20th Century.


In 1876 he became an instructor at the naval academy. His series of lectures at the Naval Academy on the use of sea power during the Napoleonic Wars earned him wide acclaim, and he began writing a book on the subject. When war loomed in 1800 over the pending Confederate acquisition of Chihuahua and Sonora. As a rising star in the naval intelligencia he was given the command of the USS Charles Ellsworth. For him, the Second Mexican War was the last straw. Serving as skipper of the USS Charles Ellsworth, he watched in rage as the superior armor and gunnery of the Royal Navy wrecked a flotilla sent to intercept British troops moving to Canada. He remained in command for another three years, raging to anyone who would listen on the Blaine’s negligence in risking war when the nation was so unready.


In 1885, he was appointed as a lecturer in naval history and tactics at the Naval War College. Before entering on his duties, College President Rear Admiral Stephen B. Luce supported Mahan’s proposal of researching the 17th and 18th centuries naval arm race and. For his first year on the faculty, he remained at his home in New York City researching and writing his lectures. Upon completion of this research period, he succeeded Luce as President of the Naval War College from June 22, 1886 to January 12, 1889. There, in 1887, he met and befriended Theodore Roosevelt, then a visiting lecturer.


While President of the Naval War College, Mahan plunged into the library and wrote lectures that drew heavily on standard classics and the ideas of Henri Jomini. (His father having been the foremost American scholar of Jomini and making Jomini’s writing the source of strategic thinking for the War of Secession Army Commanders in both the North and South) These lectures became his sea-power studies and led to his writing of The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783 (1890).


In The Influence of Sea Power upon History, Mahan explored the seventeenth century conflicts between Holland, England, France and Spain, where British naval superiority eventually defeated other continental naval powers and consistently prevented invasion and blockade. To a modern reader, the emphasis on controlling seaborne commerce is commonplace, but in the nineteenth century, the notion was radical, especially in the United States where the nation focused with expansion on to the continent's western land and the threat posed by Confederate land power. He argued that Britain’s rise to global dominance was the result of her Naval Dominance. Further that other nations like France also gained greater influence through the possession of their own fleet. Conversely, Mahan's emphasis of sea power as the crucial fact behind Britain's ascension neglected the well-documented roles of diplomacy and armies; Mahan's theories could not explain the success of terrestrial empires, such as Bismarckian Germany.


Where most American Imperialists were focusing on irredentist claims on the Confederate States and Canada. Mahan backed a revival of Manifest Destiny through overseas imperialism. He held that sea power would necessitate the United States to acquire defensive bases in the Caribbean and Pacific. Specifically to take possession of the Sandwich Island’s and all of Britain’s possessions in the western Atlantic and Caribbean after any future war with Britain. This came at the time when the United States launched a major rearmament program following the disaster of the Second Mexican War. His book was right in time to capture the imaginations of the growing Remembrance movement.


His vigorous style and clear theory won widespread acceptance of navalists across the world. Sea power supported the new the Great European Powers colonialist projects in Africa and Asia. Given the very rapid technological changes underway in propulsion (from coal to oil, from boilers to turbines), ordnance (with better fire directors, and new high explosives) and armor and emergence of new craft such as destroyers and submarines, Mahan's emphasis on the capital ship and the command of the sea came at an opportune moment.
Mahan's concept of sea power extended beyond naval superiority; he preached that in peacetime, states should increase production and shipping capacities, to acquire overseas possessions. As a result of the modern industrial economy, great powers required he acquisition of either colonies or privileged access to foreign markets. He stressed that the number of coal fuelling stations and strategic bases should be few, not to drain too many resources from the mother country. He believed the British Empire and French Empires had overstretched themselves. Therefore the United States and Germany were in the perfect positions to exploit this weakness. Making it possible for the US to capture the Sandwich Island’s and Britain’s North American possessions.


By 1891 his book became an international best seller, Mahan's name became a household word in the German navy, as Kaiser William II ordered his officers to read Mahan, and Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz used Mahan's reputation to finance a powerful surface fleet. At home President Reed, who had long held a deep interest in naval power and naval affairs, was looking to beef up the US Navy since the 1870’s. This desire only intensified after the bombardment of his home district of Portland, Maine by the Royal Navy.

President Reed was given a copy of the Influence of Sea Power on History by then Assistant Secretary of War Theodore Roosevelt. Through the young Assistant Secretary, Reed became familiar with Mahan’s theories and invited Mahan to join the cabinet as Assistant Secretary of the Navy. There he became a forceful advocate of a modern, two-ocean navy. Under Reed and Mahan’s Stewardship the US Congress passed legislation for an all steel modern battle fleet built entirely in the United States. The two also lobbied for a new Naval Staff Bill mirroring the Army’s new General Staff. After the passing of the Steel Fleet & Staff bill in 1891, Mahan was elevated to full Secretary of the Navy. By 1895 the United States produced 4 all steel Battleships, 6 steel armored cruisers, more than a dozen ocean/Great Lake monitors.


By 1895 the United States felt a resurgence of national confidence thanks to the reforms of Secretary of the Navy Alfred Thayer Mahan and Army Chief of Staff Emory Upton. For the first time since the Second Mexican War the US felt capable of resisting further Confederate- British and French expansion in the Western Hemisphere. In 1895 The Confederate Congress pushed to annex Haiti over failed debt payments to CSA Banks. President Reed however ordered squadron of warships sent to Port- au- Prince. President Reed followed this up by declaring Haiti a protectorate, preventing the islands annexation by Confederate filibusters. Because of the United States growing military confidence and the British reticence to enter in a new war on the North American continent, the United States scored its first diplomatic victory in thirty years. The pivotal role the new navy played in its successful conclusion of the Haiti Crises helped turn Mahan into a hero in Remembrance circles.


It was during this time that Mahan first met then Chief of Staff Emory Upton. Both admired each others work and both were theorists who were now attempting to turn their ideas into reality. It was during the Reed administration that the first Inter-service Coordination Conference was established. Until this time all inter-service meetings happened at the cabinet level, between Secretary of the Navy and War. However in 1892 Secretary of War Sickles, proposed to the President Tri-annual Inter-service Coordination Conference. (This was really the work of Assistant Secretary of War Theodore Roosevelt, his last contribution before leaving to become the Inspector General of the New York National Guard).


The first meeting was held in 1893, it was a full meeting of the Army General Staff and the new Naval Staff. There the two Staffs convened a board to coordinate how each could mutually support each other’s strategic objectives. It was agreed there that the Navy’s North Atlantic Squadron would set its first objective as capturing the Canadian Maritimes and preventing British reinforcements of its forces already in Canada. The Army in turn pledged to support an attack through Maine, despite its primary effort being the invasion of Kentucky. The Navy also requested an Army attack on British Columbia, but this was rejected. It was during this meeting that the Army attempted to bind the Navy into an agreement that the Army’s conquest of Confederate Territory should be allocated priorities in resources and funding. The Army further demanded that the Navy should not attempt to make any territorial acquisitions that might be a drain on these objectives. The Navy emphatically, refused to agree to these terms. This was the first indication that the Army under Chief of Staff Upton would likely attempt to subordinate all that stood in the way of its objectives.


In 1896, the barons of the Democratic Party have become restless under eight years of a single administration. Two of these titans, Grover Cleveland of New York and Robert Pattison of Pennsylvania, deadlocked at the convention. The party brokers then handed the nomination to the relative-unknown Alfred Mahan. Though uninterested in partisan politics, Mahan saw this as n opportunity to put his ideas fully into practice. He defeated both the Republican nominee William Jennings Bryan, and the Socialist Congressman Terence Powderly. This was the first election where a Socialist candidate has outpolled the Republican.


In his inauguration speech Mahan laid out his vision for two ocean Navy capable of repelling attacks by the Royal Navy on the American coastal cities, preventing the British from reinforcing their forces in Canada, projecting the United States’ interested abroad and bringing the fight to the home waters of the nation’s enemies. In the first year in office he won approval by Congress for a new Fleet Bill that guaranteed funding for a two Ocean Navy. During his eight years in office, the US built a modern two-ocean navy, consisting of the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, and Great Lakes Squadrons, with riverine operations becoming the Army's province. As befitting US strategic interests, the Atlantic Fleet received the bulk of funding.

The cost of building such a fleet however put tremendous strain on the nation and the economy. Thus in Mahan’s first term in office a Federal Reserve was established, to cope with the financial strain of Army and Navy expansion. The Government also began to implement the wide scale rationing of strategically important commodities like steel, coal, nitrates, cotton and sometimes meat. Though the rationing Bill was passed in 1889 and reinforced by the 16th amendment, it had not yet required implemented.

To further reduce costs that Mahan also pushed through Congress a plan to establish wage and price controls for all “strategic industries,” much to the ire of more conservative elements of the Democratic Party like Nelson Aldrich and Mark Hanna. Because of the row it created among his own party members, Mahan agreed to scale down the scope of the powers. His original proposal, would also have applied wage and price controls to the mining, oil, steel, and chemical industries. The Wage and Price Control bill passed in 1899, setting wages at munitions plants, shipyards, railways, and dockyards.


It was the impact of the rationing, which is attributed to the rapid growth of the Socialist Party in this period. During his first administration the nation wracked by violent strikes. Mahan a staunch Democrat often ordered the army to violently intercede on behalf of factory owners. The use of the military and impact of rationing on the household necessities finally gave the beleaguered Socialist Party its big push. However it never lived up to Socialist Party strategist expectations. The violent reputation of the party kept many blue-collar workers and middle class white collar workers away. It was not until the party renounced violence or “direct action” that it really expanded. It was only 1898 that the socialist party replaced the Republicans as the second largest Party in Congress.


The expanding Navy and its voracious appetite for funding and national resources, not only strained relations for with labor, but the Army as well. By 1898 the ever-expanding naval budget and army budget was bankrupting the nation. Congress was for the first time since the Remembrance Democrats came to power did not have the votes for the increase in defense spending. The President and the House Committees on Military and Naval Affairs, had to make hard choices. The choice boiled down to in many minds, either continue with the Naval Expansion or continue with the Army expansion program suggested by Chief of Staff Emory Upton. The President and The House Committees compromised and the 1899 budget saw a reduced spending for both the Army and Navy.


Unfortunately for the administration, Chief of Staff Upton did not agree. Years of exponential Naval growth and only slightly slower increase in the army, made the General Staff question the Presidents priorities. The lack of army budget increases meant that the United States would only have the resources to draft ½ of the eligible male population. Tension between the President and Chief of Staff’s continued into next year, despite their effective cooperation during the Nicaraguan crises. At the third triennial Naval review Upton again presented a plan for a beefed up Army expanding the number of Field Armies from four to six, fixing the number of divisions at fifty-four and establishing new training facilities to increase the percentage of eligible men drafted from 50% to 80%. At that time the CS Army currently drafted 88% of its male white population. At the same time he presented a counter Naval budget and plan that would only support a missions of; preventing the British from supplying Canada, a small coastal defense fleet in the Pacific and a expanded Great Lakes and Riverine force. President Mahan supported the expansion of the army to its new six-army force structure, but rejected the increase in draftees and rebuked Upton for meddling in Naval Affairs. It was becoming clear the President and the Chief of Staff, had deeply different views on the future of the United States defense policy.


Early in his first term the Entente tests Mahan with a plan to build a transoceanic canal through Nicaragua. In 1897 the Confederacy finally had the funds and the agreement with Nicaragua to construct a trans-oceanic canal across the isthmus. They also had an agreement with the British to support and finance a canal scheme, as long as it did not anger the “other Americans.” At first Confederacy attempted to make an agreement with the United States to recognize the building of a Confederate- British canal across the isthmus. President Mahan threatened war the second the first Confederates shovel dug into Nicaraguan earth. Mahan argued before Congress that a canal across the isthmus would allow the Confederacy and its allies the ability to move ships between the Atlantic and Pacific at more that three times the speed than if they had to sail around South America. The Canal would give an overwhelming advantage to who ever owns it and allow the Confederacy to build their own two ocean Navy.


The bellicose Confederate President States Rights Gist immediately demanded support from his allies to build the canal under the threat of possible war. Mahan knew that neither the Navy nor Army was ready for war with the Confederacy or Great Britain. The Navy was far from a match to the might of the Royal Navy and Upton’s Army reforms were still under way. However Mahan gambled that the British people were not interested in a renewed war with the United States, especially given the threat of war looming in South Africa. Mahan’s gamble paid off. With its attention turned towards South Africa, Britain would not risk a war.


Without British support the humiliated President Gist was forced to end all Confederate aspirations for a trans-oceanic canal. After President States Rights Gist, the C.S.A. turned its back on former Generals as Presidents. In 1898 the Confederate citizens elected Robert Taylor and Champ Clark in 1904. Both Presidents pursued a policy of preventing further exploitation of the Caribbean by European Powers and non-conflict with the United States. Meanwhile under Mahan’s leadership, Germany and the United States continued to cultivate alliances across South America, most notably with Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela.


When 1900 arrived Mahan easily captured the Democratic Party nomination. His success in handling the Nicaraguan crises and his humiliation of President Gist gave the people of the United States a sense of pride it had not felt since the First Mexican War. Mahan went on to crush Socialist candidate Jacob Coxey and Republican candidate John Hay. President Mahan was a friendly acquaintance had recently appointed Hay ambassador France, .

Despite his success tension still festered between the President and Chief of Staff Upton. Upton continued to malign the president to his allies in congress. Upton even tried to coax his allies into running a more Army centric candidate for President like Theodore Roosevelt. Mahan was aware of his machinations, but Upton was too popular and there was no other Army officer with the reputation to replace him. No one else in the army had his vision or foresight. Mahan’s overwhelming re-election in 1900, greatly increased his influence in Philadelphia, where he was always seen as an outsider. The President plied his new found influence into pushing for a new Navy Bill, which if passed would be put the nation on track to match the power of the Royal Navy by 1922. It's objective was not just dominance in the Western Atlantic, but across the planet, making the US the dominant global Naval Power. Chief of Staff Upton overtly attempted to block the bill. When he failed, Upton wrote a scathing editorial for the Philadelphia Tribune, A Republican news outlet. In it Upton railed against the growing dangers of the Confederate Army and the US Army’s criminally negligent lack of resource. Mahan attempted to sooth things over with Upton through the new Secretary of War Theodore Roosevelt.


Roosevelt’s overtures went unanswered, Upton now Chief of Staff for twelve years, was developing a distain for civilian control. General Upton again presented a proposal to the Committee on Military Affairs and the President for an increase in the number of Armies from six to eight, an increase in the percentage of the eligible male population conscripted to 88% and an increase in the conscription period service men served from two to three years. This had become standard in the Confederate Army. Upton raised fears that the average Confederate soldier was now better trained. When Upton threatened to resign if his demands were not met, Mahan called his bluff. In fall of 1901 Chief of Staff Upton, resigned. Charles Francis Adams, brother of the Speaker of the House Henry Adams, replaced him. A fact that made Upton’s retirement more palatable for Congress. Chief of Staff Adams quickly proved easier to work with and more deferential to civilian oversight.


Mahan continued to remain aloof in domestic politics, outside of his support for the Federal Reserve and rationing policies. He did not take sides in the growing issue over the power of Corporate Trust’s nor did he way in on the growing movement to establish oversight of the food and drug industries. In 1902, however he did use his offices to end a major anthracite coal minor strike. Mahan unexpectedly sided with the striking workers and forced the mine owners to give into nearly all of the striker’s demands. For the first time a Democratic President reached out to Socialist Party Congressmen in ending a strike, instead of calling in the Army or National Guard. In forcing an end to the strike Mahan prevented a possible major disruption in the nations coal supplies that winter.


In Foreign Policy Mahan continued the Reed administrations policy of increasing ties with Germany. The two regularly exchanged military officers to report on innovations in their partner’s countries. Mahan focused on increasing ties between the two nation’s Navies. Mahan signed agreements allowing the West Atlantic Squadron of German High Seas Fleet to use Boston as a coaling station and secured reciprocal agreements, which allowed the US fleet to use German Ports in the Pacific to coal US warships. US and German warships began joint exercises in the Pacific and Atlantic. He did however prevent the Kaiser from seizing control of Venezuela, which cause a slight rift between the two powers. However by 1903 he was able to mend this relationship and formally bring the United States into the Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy. In October 1903 the Triple Alliance officially became the Quadruple Alliance. This marked the most radical departure in US foreign Policy, since the founding of the Republic. By signing the agreement the nation officially rejected President Washington’s warnings against entanglement in foreign alliances.


By 1904 the United States had completed twenty battleships, and became the dominant Naval power in the Western Atlantic, eclipsing the British, Canadian and CSA in Naval strength in the Western Atlantic. After no major international incidents since Nicaraguan Crises of 1897, President Mahan gambled again. Mahan sent 12 Battleships of the US Atlantic Squadron on a goodwill trip around the world; formally announcing that the US had become a major global power. Mahan left office in 1905, happy to return to his studies.


After leaving office Mahan took a grand European tour. Beginning in 1906 it lasted more than sixteen months. In Europe he was requested by the Naval Academies of friend and foe alike, to lecture about the future of naval power. While lecturing at Portsmouth he met future First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill and First Sea Lord Jackie Fisher. He was given a heroes welcome in Berlin and joined the Kaiser on his yacht for a tour of the Norwegian coast. He returned to the United States in late 1907, in time of President Aldrich’s proposed Philadelphia Naval Conference. Mahan reacted with horror on hearing of Aldrich’s proposal and overtly acted to kill any of its proposals. Having protected his legacy he settled in New York City and returned to writing.

While in office as Secretary of the Navy Mahan still found time to write, finishing two books; The Influence of Sea Power upon the French Revolution and Empire, 1793–1812 (2 vols. 1892); and the Life of Nelson: The Embodiment of the Sea Power of Great Britain (2 vols. 1897). After he left office he continued his writing completing John Paul Jones: The origins of American Sea Power (2 vols. 1910). In this biography Mahan stressed the importance of the individual in shaping history, and extoled the traditional values of loyalty, courage, and service to the state. Mahan sought to resurrect John Paul Jones as a national hero in the United States and used the book as a platform for expressing his views on naval strategy and tactics. Mahan’s friend President Roosevelt successfully petitioned the return of Jones body from France in 1913, where he was re-interned. Roosevelt sent an armored cruiser to retrieve Jone’s body. Jones was buried with full honors in Annapolis.

Thanks to Mahan's vision, the US was not far behind when the Royal Navy put the Dreadnought to sea, and the first ship of the US's competing New York class was commissioned the next year. Unlike many of the other Naval Powers the US did not experiment with Battlecruisers and saved itself from the embarrassment the Royal Navy suffered at the battle of Jutland. Mahan had his limits, however. His love of the surface navy caused him to underestimate the submersibles, which would wreak much havoc in both Great Wars. In 1914, the US's submarine fleet was nearly the same size as Confederacy's, and somewhat inferior in design. Despite the Submarine being invented by the United States naval engineer John Holland. But the war did much to break hidebound tradition, and in 1917 Secretary of the Navy Josephus Daniels approved the far-sighted USS Remembrance airplane carrier, restoring the US's reputation as a naval innovator.

The US entered the Great War with 16 Dreadnought type battleships, 20 Pre-dreadnought Battleships, 10 Great Lake Battleships, 6 armored cruisers, 30 cruisers, 120 Destroyers, 30 river monitors and 20 submersibles. The US focused mainly on a decisive battle doctrine, with a powerful surface fleet. Its mission was to Blockade the Confederacy and prevent UK forces from reaching Canada. The Atlantic Fleets first objective was supporting the US invasion of Canada and aggressive pursuit of any open Entente movement into the Western Atlantic. At the same time the Pacific Fleet was to neutralize the threat posed by the Royal Navy in the Sandwich Islands. The Riverine Fleet and Great Lake fleets mission was to support the US invasion across the Ohio and landings on the St. Lawrence peninsula.

When war broke out in 1914, he was invited by Roosevelt to come to Philadelphia and consult on Naval Strategy. He lived to see the Navy’s success in capturing the Sandwich Islands and the Canadian Maritimes. He also lived to see the growing threat from asymmetrical naval attacks like mines and submersibles. Before he died, he counseled Roosevelt that the main problem with republics is that "over time, the voters are apt to get tired of paying for what their country needs to defend itself.” He cautioned Roosevelt to either defeat the Confederacy and Britain so thoroughly that they can never pose a threat again or make allies of them.


Mahan died in Philadelphia of heart failure on December 1, 1914. In part because of his leadership the US defeated the Confederate States and the British Empire, the dominant naval power for the last 200 years. The US eclipsed the Royal Navy and its German allies in size and strength by the early 1920’s. Thanks to his Naval Program and leadership the US became the world's greatest Naval powerful.
 
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Aldrich Posts! keep'em coming.

I reedited the Mahan bio to get rid of the inconsistencies.

My one question is that if the Red Rebellion caught Confederate Officials by surprise. Does the CSA knowing about the Red Council undermine that?

I'm enjoying the Roosevelt Aldrich antagonism. It explores TR's more progressive policies, which Craigo's bio of TR lacks.

I'm also enjoying how Remembrance Democrats are now Mahan Democrats. The book is pretty clear that many considered Mahan the best President before TR. It seems the Democratic Party has been completely merged with the Remembrance ideology. There are now just degrees of remembrance democrats.

History has to be so complicated in this timeline. There can't be much fondness in the party for Pre- Second Mexican War Democratic leadership at this point. With so many presidents being Southerners, there can't be much fondness for Pre War of Secession Democratic figures either. Maybe Jackson as an exception. He may have taken the role that Lincoln played in OTL.

I distinctly remembering Roosevelt when running for his third term in Blood and Iron declare; he would not be bound by the tradition of a slave holding southerner, obviously referring to Washington.
 

bguy

Donor
My one question is that if the Red Rebellion caught Confederate Officials by surprise. Does the CSA knowing about the Red Council undermine that?

Did the Red Rebellion really catch the Confederate government by surprise? In Great War: American Front, Clarence Potter and the Birmingham Police were both investigating suspected Reds well in advance of the Red Rebellion, and Tom Colleton mentions at one point all the suspected Reds that have been shot in his division (and warns his sister that there is bound to be a Red cell on Marshlands), so the CSA government seemed to realize the Reds were a threat.

Anyway, it seems impossible that the CSA government would not be aware of the existence of the Red Council. The council's public activities (making speeches, fund raising, publishing Anti-Confederate literature) would inevitably get Richmond's attention. (Especially if the Confederates thought the US government was helping the Council.)

Now that said, the CSA government could be aware of the existence of the Red Council but still underestimate how big a threat it was (believing it was capable of carrying out acts of sabotage and assassination but not of leading a nationwide rebellion.)

History has to be so complicated in this timeline. There can't be much fondness in the party for Pre- Second Mexican War Democratic leadership at this point. With so many presidents being Southerners, there can't be much fondness for Pre War of Secession Democratic figures either. Maybe Jackson as an exception. He may have taken the role that Lincoln played in OTL.

Agreed about Jackson. I think Polk would be pretty popular too since he faced down the British, and led the US in its last victorious war.

And for non-Democrat pre-War of Secession presidents, I seem to recall a scene in one of the books that suggested the Democrats venerate John Adams.

I distinctly remembering Roosevelt when running for his third term in Blood and Iron declare; he would not be bound by the tradition of a slave holding southerner, obviously referring to Washington.

That scene always seemed off to me. You would think Washington would still be highly regarded in the TL-191 US since he led the US to victory over the British. (Who should be just as hated in the US as the Confederates.)
 
That scene always seemed off to me. You would think Washington would still be highly regarded in the TL-191 US since he led the US to victory over the British. (Who should be just as hated in the US as the Confederates.)

That was even pretty IC for teddy, specially against the odds, and rememeber that tension with southern were pretty high, that was more a fuck off to critics that a direct insult to mr washington(but seems some northern might have more revisionist view of southerns, specially southerns president with the bad blood with the CSA)
 

Faeelin

Banned
Personally I think the US is an amalgamation of the US and Imperial Germany. So its Germany plus our OTL economy, giving us more tanks and trucks. The CSA is most like OTL france, with a more US like economy.Either way the 33-35 milion CSA can't win.

You're forgetting something major about the CSA population.
 
You're forgetting something major about the CSA population.

That a third of its black, non-citizen almost prisoners? I think that just proves my point even more. I was showing where I got my information for the size of the csa population in 1914, to show the CSA can't win based purely on demographics.

Then then fun of this website is to explain the unobvious historical factors that would have made the war drag on for three years. I see it black population as kind of a unkown foreseen blessing for the CSA, from the economic standpoint. Because its black resident aliens were under utilized in the economy, when the war broke out they took over white jobs and helped support the industrial expansion needed to fight the war. In the north this is a rougher transition because of its high rate of employment and it only having women to fill this vacuum.

In OTL a similar thing happened there was industrial disruption when workers went off to war to fight WWI, because of the high employment created by the demand of the allies before we entered WWI.

Why the war lasted three years has been this thing I've been obsessing about. I think the CSA economy had to be pretty interesting.
 

Faeelin

Banned
A third of the nation hates it?

Turtledove has the USA go racist and blame blacks for the war. Maybe. But another possibility is that the US defines itself as everything the CSA isn't.

This means the Socialists all fly American flags during the Red Uprising, you know.
 
Turtledove has the USA go racist and blame blacks for the war. Maybe. But another possibility is that the US defines itself as everything the CSA isn't.

This means the Socialists all fly American flags during the Red Uprising, you know.

It's so beautiful! :cool:

USA USA USA!
 

bguy

Donor
Aldrich, Nelson (1841-1915)
Part 4

Nelson Aldrich would start off his second term with some major changes to his Cabinet. Most significantly, as a sop to the progressives within his party, the highly controversial Joseph Cannon was out as Attorney General. (The progressives would be disappointed though when Cannon’ replacement, New York attorney Henry Stimson, continued Cannon’s policy of aggressively targeting militant unions.) Aldrich also replaced his Secretary of Navy John Long with Pennsylvania Congressman Thomas Butler. Butler’s appointment was seen as a warning to the British (who were continuing to rapidly build dreadnoughts) as Butler was a much stronger proponent of Naval expansion than his predecessor.


Aldrich meanwhile continued to advance his Rapprochement policy with the Confederate States. 1909 would see the United States conclude an extradition treaty with the Confederates and also come to an agreement for a joint US-CS expedition to the North Pole. (The expedition led by American naval officer Robert Peary and Confederate naval officer Roger ap Catesby Jones would successfully reach the geographic North Pole the following Spring.) Aldrich also quietly proposed the Army Reduction Treaty (ART) to the Confederates that would see both sides reduce their active duty forces by 25% (which would mean reducing the US Army down to 600,000 men and the Confederates down to 300,000). The proposed agreement would also have reduced each side’s Reserve forces by 25%. President Clark expressed interest in the proposal but did not believe an agreement could be concluded in the short time he had left in office and thus deferred any action on the proposal for the next Confederate president. Aldrich accepted that and moved forward with his plans to welcome Clark on a state visit to the United States. An agreement for such a visit (to take place in November shortly after the Confederate presidential election) had nearly been finalized when the visit had to be abruptly cancelled due to the Confederates occupation of Nicaragua in October.


Aldrich was not personally upset by the Confederate action. He believed that Nicaraguan President Jose Santos Zelaya, who had publically declared his intention to reestablish the United States of Central America and who was actively attempting to overthrow the (pro-CS) Honduran government, was a threat to regional stability and was furious that the German government had loaned the money to Zelaya to build up his army (an action Aldrich viewed as another German attempt to subvert the Monroe Doctrine.) Thus after getting assurances from President Clark that the Confederates would not annex Nicaragua or otherwise take advantage of the situation to start building a trans-oceanic canal across Nicaragua and in exchange for the Confederates agreeing to assert their influence in the Empire of Mexico to “persuade” the Mexicans to allow for expanded US trade and investment in their country, Aldrich did not take any action to oppose the Confederate occupation (and in fact quietly worked to dissuade the Germans from intervening against the Confederates.) Nevertheless, the Confederate move set off a firestorm of criticism throughout the United States and thus made any immediate visit from a Confederate president clearly impossible.


Aldrich would also have to face a new challenge from the British that year as the British responded to the new US alliance with Chile and Paraguay by concluding their own alliance with Argentina and agreeing to sell 3 new dreadnoughts to Argentina (at a heavily discounted price.) Aldrich attempted to dissuade the British from this action which he was certain would set off an arms race throughout South America, but the British (who saw the US alliance with Chile as an dagger pointed at their primary source of nitrates: Peru) proved intransigent, after which Aldrich unhappily approved the sale of 3 American made dreadnoughts (also at a heavily discounted price) to Chile, and the South American arms race was on. Both sides would henceforth not only “sell” substantial amounts of weaponry and provide military advisors to their own South American allies, but each also began aggressively lobbying the Empire of Brazil for its support. (The Brazilians would ultimately agree to purchase 3 dreadnoughts from the British, but otherwise refused to commit to either side.)


With Anglo-American relations becoming increasingly frosty, Aldrich acquiesced to another 2 for 4 Dreadnought bill that December. (Due to Aldrich’s naval construction efforts, the United States would have 16 dreadnoughts complete or nearing completion at the start of the First Great War.) Aldrich also agreed to a bill that would expand and modernize the US Great Lakes Fleet. Aldrich had not entirely abandoned his reticence on increased defense spending though as he did block an additional Naval bill that would have committed the United States to also building 4 battlecruisers. (Aldrich was aided in this by the fact that the Navy itself did not want the battlecruisers since Admiral George Dewey, Chief of the Naval Staff, felt the battlecrusiers were too “thin-skinned” to be of any use against the Royal Navy’s battleline.) The British would respond to the increases in the US fleet by further increasing their own dreadnought production and the following year (over heavy US protest) beginning the fortification of Bermuda and the Sandwich Islands.


The 1910 Congressional session would see Aldrich without his most powerful legislative ally as Senator Hanna, who had been in poor health for some time, died early in the year. The session in turn would prove a mixed bag for Aldrich. He successfully pushed through the Federal Roadway Act, providing substantial federal funding to improve the nation’s road system. (Aldrich believed a good road system would help the economy and thus even acquiesced to increased excise taxes on gasoline and tires to help pay for the bill.) He also signed into law the National Reclamation Act that provided federal funding for irrigation projects in the western states. Both of these bills were particularly popular with the Republicans, and Aldrich hoped to use them to break apart the de facto Socialist-Republican alliance (or failing that to at least strengthen the Democrat Party in the western states). However, without Hanna to lead the conservative opposition in the Senate, Aldrich was unable to prevent the Congress from passing Civil Service Reform legislation. Aldrich promptly vetoed the bill, and the Congress was unable to override the veto, but the mere fact that the bill had gotten through Congress at all showed that Aldrich’s authority was waning. Aldrich was also unsuccessful, despite considerable personal lobbying, at preventing Congress from passing the 18th Amendment which provided for the direct election of US senators. Theodore Roosevelt’s vigorous campaign in favor of the proposed amendment won over many wavering Democrat members of Congress, and Aldrich also suffered widespread revolt amongst the Mid-West Democrat senators, who believed that with Socialists and Republicans increasingly forming coalitions in their state legislatures, they were better off taking their chances with a popular election that they could win with a simple plurality, than relying on the Democrats to win a majority in their state legislatures. The amendment would be ratified in 1912. [1]


1910 would also prove the decisive year for Aldrich’s Rapprochement policy due to the inauguration of the new Confederate president, Woodrow Wilson. Wilson in fact came into office sympathetic to Rapprochement. However, the increasingly bad relations between the United States and the British Empire left the Confederate States at a cross-road, where they were going to have to choose between Britain and the United States.

The British were aware of the ongoing negotiations between the US and CS over the Army Reduction Treaty, and they were not pleased. The Anglo-Confederate alliance had been highly controversial in Britain for some time. The British were deeply troubled by Confederate racial policies and the recent US-CS Commercial Treaty had greatly increased US exports to the Confederates at the expense of British manufactures (thus giving Britain even less reason to continue to align themselves with the Confederates.) The only real benefit the British still saw in the alliance was that the large Confederate Army would limit how much force the US could threaten Canada with in the advent of war with the United States, but now if the Confederates shrunk their army to the extent proposed in the ART then even that benefit would be lost. Thus the British government made it clear to President Wilson that if the Confederates wished to retain their alliance with the British Empire they needed to break off negotiations over the ART. (The British, who were straining their economy to the breaking point to keep the Royal Navy larger than the combined US and German fleets, were also upset that the Confederates were neglecting their own navy, and made it clear they expected the Confederates to start pulling their weight in the naval arms race.)


It therefore all came down to Woodrow Wilson. The idealist in Wilson believed in Rapprochement and wanted the ART. Wilson disliked maintaining a large standing army and had plans for a farm support program and establishing a national university system, plans that needed the revenue that would be freed up by shrinking the army. But then Wilson looked north, where he saw the United States in the grips of Remembrance ideology and with it’s population still seething over the Confederate occupation of Nicaragua. Wilson knew it was a major risk to abandon the alliance with the British. If he did that and then a diehard anti-Confederate like Theodore Roosevelt or Henry Cabot Lodge was elected President, then the Confederate States would potentially be facing a belligerent United States alone. And in the end Woodrow Wilson didn’t think he could take the risk. Aldrich was an old man, increasingly unpopular with even his own party, who would soon be out of office, and Wilson simply did not believe Aldrich could get the ART through the US Senate. (Aldrich insisted that if the treaty failed at ratification, he would simply veto any funding bill for an army greater in size than what would have been allowed by the treaty, but that answer did not satisfy Wilson since such a policy would only last for as long as Aldrich was President.) Thus Wilson decided he had no choice but to continue with the Anglo-Confederate alliance, even if it meant the end of Rapprochement.


Wilson did not want the responsibility for the collapse of the ART talks to be on him though, so (with the agreement of the British) he issued a counter-offer to Aldrich, calling for both the US and CS to agree to reduce their armies to 300,000 men. Such a proposal was a non-starter for the United States as it would mean US forces would actually be outnumbered by Entente forces on their border. (300,000 Confederate troops plus the 100,000 Anglo-Canadian troops compared to just 300,000 US troops.) Aldrich thus rejected Wilson’s proposal and the ART negotiations collapsed. Wilson would shortly thereafter begin a major review of Confederate war plans (which would cumulate in the Confederate adoption of a “Fire-eater” war plan). He would also announce an agreement whereby the Confederate States would purchase 4 dreadnought battlecrusiers from Britain.


Despite the apparent collapse of Aldrich’s Rapprochement policy, the Democrat Party held serve in the 1910 midterm elections. The economy was booming, and foreign policy issues dominated the election which played to the Democrats’ strength. (While Aldrich’s own foreign policy had become deeply unpopular, the congressional Democratic candidates were largely able to distance themselves from Aldrich by taking a hard line anti-Confederate, anti-British stance while Socialists and Republicans were poorly positioned to attack Aldrich on foreign policy since most of them had supported Rapprochement or even a more conciliatory foreign policy.) Still, even with large Democrat majorities in both houses, Aldrich’s influence over Congress had obviously been greatly weakened. Most of the newly elected Democrats were Mahan Democrats, and they looked to Theodore Roosevelt not Nelson Aldrich as the party’s leader.


1911 however would see a (brief) rise in Aldrich’s public standing as a border dispute between Liberia and the French Empire escalated to where the French were threatening to invade Liberia. That nation had long been a quasi-US protectorate, so Aldrich felt obligated to come to its aid and dispatched the cruiser, USS Detroit, along with a battalion of marines under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Smedley Butler (the son of Secretary of the Navy Butler) to defend Liberia from any French incursion. The French government, surprised by Aldrich’s unexpected assertiveness and not wanting to risk a general war over a minor border dispute, backed down and agreed to resolve the issue through international arbitration. (Lieutenant Colonel Butler would stay on in Liberia to head up the American military advisory team that was training the Liberian Army and would become famous in the First Great War for commanding the successful defense of Liberia during that conflict.)


Aldrich would take advantage of the boast in his public standing from the successful resolution of the Liberian Crisis to make one final attempt at Rapprochement with the Confederates. Aldrich believed his failure to come to an accord with President Wilson was due to having to negotiate with him through intermediaries and thus his best shot for achieving agreement was through a face to face summit. (Throughout his career, Aldrich had always excelled at winning people over in backroom negotiations.) Thus Aldrich reopened negotiations concerning having the Confederate president make a state visit to the United States.


Negotiations over the proposed visit would be difficult. Wilson liked the idea of a summit, but wanted it to be held in Richmond rather than in Washington and wanted the British to be invited as well. (Aldrich believed holding the summit in Richmond would kill any public support for it in the United States and that the British would simply sabotage the summit if allowed to attend.) There were also significant disagreements over what the agenda of the conference would be. Aldrich wanted the conference to focus on arms reductions, while Wilson saw it more as an opportunity to discuss his plans for an international body where nations could come together to peacefully resolve disputes. (Wilson also wanted to discuss getting US approval for a Confederate trans-oceanic canal in Central America.)


But even as negotiations over the summit were ongoing, Aldrich would face new difficulties at home when scandal struck his administration early in 1912 after the pugnacious U.S. Attorney for Idaho, William Borah, announced he had uncovered widespread bribery and graft in the federal highway program in that state. Further investigation would reveal systemic corruption throughout the entire National Roadways Agency. Aldrich would eventually sack the Director of the NRA, Harry Daugherty, but the scandal still badly damaged Aldrich, undoing the boast in popularity he had received for his handling of the Liberian Crisis. The scandal would also damage Aldrich’s Vice President (and preferred successor) Charles Fairbanks, as the disgraced Daugherty had long been a political ally of Fairbanks.

Aldrich would thus be on the defensive throughout the 1912 Congressional session as the progressive Democrats under the leadership of Speaker Adams in the House and Maryland Senator Charles Bonaparte in the Senate pushed an aggressive reform agenda that sought to enact civil service reform, ban child labor, establish a Federal Trade Commission, and amend the Stevenson Anti-Trust Act to prohibit it from being used on unions. Aldrich succeeded in derailing the trade commission and anti-trust bills, but Congress would again enact civil service reform legislation. (Prompting another Aldrich veto.) Aldrich also suffered a surprising defection on the child labor bill when Pennsylvania Senator Walter McKenna (henceforth one of Aldrich’s most reliable congressional allies), came out in favor of the bill. (McKenna had previously opposed child labor legislation, so his switch on the issue appears to have been motivated by a desire to make himself more acceptable as a possible Vice Presidential candidate.) After the Congress passed the child labor bill, Vice President Fairbanks attempted to persuade the President to sign the bill, warning him that if Aldrich vetoed the bill it would destroy any chance of a conservative candidate winning the Democratic nomination that year and thus guarantee that Theodore Roosevelt would be the next president, but Aldrich (perhaps thinking Fairbanks’ nomination was impossible anyway) vetoed the bill anyway. (The Congress would then narrowly uphold Aldrich’s veto.)


Aldrich played little role at the 1912 Democratic convention. His personal popularity was at an all time low after his vetoes of the popular civil service reform and child labor bills, and it was apparent going into the convention that there was little support for Vice President Fairbanks (who was tainted by his association with Aldrich.) With Fairbanks a lost cause, Aldrich threw what influence he had behind the candidacy of Senator Lodge. (Aldrich disapproved of Lodge’s foreign policy but considered him sound on domestic issues at least.) Lodge though campaigned half-heartedly, seeming reconciled to the nomination of his good friend Theodore Roosevelt, and Roosevelt easily captured the nomination.


Roosevelt would go on to run on a platform promising political and economic reform, US military supremacy, and “No more Nicaraguas!” and would win a decisive victory that fall over Socialist candidate Eugene Debs and Republican candidate Gilbert Hitchcock. Aldrich played no role in the Roosevelt campaign and would never state who he voted for that year.


In his waning months in office, Aldrich did achieve one last success when he finalized an agreement with President Wilson concerning their proposed personal summit. Each side gave up something with Wilson agreeing to come to Washington in 1913 and for the British not to be invited to the summit in exchange for Aldrich agreeing that the summit would only address Wilson’s proposed international organization. This diplomatic triumph would ultimately amount to little though as Theodore Roosevelt withdrew the invitation shortly after taking office. (It is widely believed that Wilson in fact only agreed to the summit in Washington so as to put Roosevelt in the position of having to cancel it.)


Aldrich left office quietly, the least popular US president since James Blaine. Nor did the early days of the Roosevelt administration do much to assuage Aldrich’s distaste for the new president as Roosevelt’s inaugural address promised a “Square Deal” for the American worker and called for a new 4 for 4 dreadnought bill and a return to the million man army, and Roosevelt on his first day in office pardoned every person being held in federal prison for violating the Trade Disputes Act. A disgruntled Aldrich decided it was time to get out of the country for a while, and departed for an extended tour of Europe.

Aldrich, who was a lifetime avid art collector, greatly expanded his private collection while in Europe. He also met with many European leaders and even achieved reconciliation with Kaiser Wilhelm after expressing his admiration for the Kaiser’s yacht. (Both men were sailing enthusiasts.) In fact Aldrich was sailing with the Kaiser in the Baltic Sea when word was received about the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Aldrich, recognizing that the situation could easily escalate to war, raced back across the Atlantic, and was back in the United States when it entered the First Great War.


Aldrich, while horrified at the thought of his country entering what he believed was an unnecessary European war, immediately volunteered his services to Theodore Roosevelt and was placed in charge of the United States War Loan Board. From that position Aldrich applied his still formidable financial acumen to helping the United States raise the enormous funds needed to wage war against the Entente nations. Aldrich’s efforts would prove remarkably successful, establishing the framework for war loans that the United States would use throughout the conflict, but the intense work load proved too great for the 73 year old man, and he passed away while working at his desk on January 16, 1915.


Theodore Roosevelt, would eulogize Aldrich as “the Giant who stood athwart history, yelling stop!”




[1] Craigo has this amendment being enacted much later after the FGW. However, I think that is contradicted by the text as there is a mention in Walk in Hell during the 1916 elections to Senator LaFollette being "out in front in Wisconsin." That strongly suggests the US already had popular elections of Senators at the time of the First Great War, so I moved the amendment up in time to reflect that.
 
Turtledove has the USA go racist and blame blacks for the war. Maybe. But another possibility is that the US defines itself as everything the CSA isn't.

This means the Socialists all fly American flags during the Red Uprising, you know.

This!!! Having the US more racist AFTER the South seceded makes no darn sense at all.

I'd also eliminate the Dems and have a newly formed second party (Constitutional Unionists?) rise up in the North.

And what's with the Mormons?

This is good material, but unfortunately it's based on poor AH.

Benjamin
 
"Was an update ever done on TL191 Churchill"

No Churchill but there are a bunch of references to him and British Foreign Policy, have at it. We are trying to respect Craigo's work though.
 
Again great post. You really did a great job encapsulating the period of detente post Mahan. I really liked how you show that the Confederacy- Britain and the US were all equally as guilty for the Great War coming to North america. This though is my favorite:

"1911 however would see a (brief) rise in Aldrich’s public standing as a border dispute between Liberia and the French Empire escalated to where the French were threatening to invade Liberia. That nation had long been a quasi-US protectorate, so Aldrich felt obligated to come to its aid and dispatched the cruiser, USS Detroit, along with a battalion of marines under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Smedley Butler (the son of Secretary of the Navy Butler) to defend Liberia from any French incursion. The French government, surprised by Aldrich’s unexpected assertiveness and not wanting to risk a general war over a minor border dispute, backed down and agreed to resolve the issue through international arbitration. (Lieutenant Colonel Butler would stay on in Liberia to head up the American military advisory team that was training the Liberian Army and would become famous in the First Great War for commanding the successful defense of Liberia during that conflict.)"

Liberian history in TL-191 should be really interesting. We need to write more about the Great War in Africa. Craigo goes over it a little with his bio on Lettow-Vorbeck, but I think we can do more. These smaller incidents are really interesting. That's what i originally wanted to do with my posts, but got side track with Bios and Artillery.

I am sure Churchill had some interesting North American or Caribbean adventures in this TL.
 
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Gabriel Semmes (1864-1938)

His Rise
Gabriel Semmes was the tenth President of the Confederate States, who served from 1916 to 1922. He was the first President of the Confederate States to be born after it became a nation. His term however was marred by the CSA's defeat in the Great War and the subsequent loss of territory to the United States.

Semmes was a life-long Whig politician. He was the grandson of Raphael Semmes, a C.S. naval hero of the War of Secession, and like many Whig politicians in the C.S., Gabriel Semmes used his name to great political advantage. He was raised in Mobile Alabama son of Oliver John Semmes and Amante Gaines Semmes. Unlike his father Oliver Semmes served as a soldier in the Confederate Army fighting with General Braggs forces in the invasion of Kentucky. Gabrielle decided to follow the path of his more famous grandfather. When his grandfather died in 1877, he vowed to attend the Confederate Naval academy. Because of his name he was easily admitted to the Confederate Naval Academy in 1881, like most cadets of the year he was given an active commission when the second Mexican war broke out.

There were many in the Confederate government that wanted to begin an immediate guerre de course on the United States. They quickly began lobbying for the equipping merchant raiders and privateers. The most vocal were those officers that were trained under Raphael Semmes when he served as Super-intendant of the Confederate naval academy in Mobile. The young Gabrielle Semmes was one of them. President Longstreet however rejected any attempts to create a privateer fleet, largely out of fear it would alienate their British allies. Several Naval treaties had been passed since 1850’s, which barred the creation of privateers. Though the CSA never signed any such treaty Longstreet ordered that all merchant raiding would have to be done by warships flying the nation at wars colors. The Confederacy lacked any ships capable of commerce raiding in there fleet. Most of the Confederate Navy vessels were Ironclads (the confederate navy refused to call them monitors) used for harbor defense or suppressing Cuban Rebels. Therefore Merchant raiders would have to be built from scratch or purchased from Britain. Because the war lasted only a year Gabrielle Semmes saw little action in the Second Mexican War, outside of the firing on some Cuban guerrillas. After the war he turned to the Confederate Naval academy to complete his studies. After fifteen years in the navy he achieved the rank of Captain before retiring. He was elected a member of the board of the Gulf Coast Commercial Shipyards. There he quickly became involved in Whig politics in Alabama, becoming known as a man with the connections to accomplish what he set out to.

By 1904 he became involved with the reform branch of the Whig party and was elected to represent Alabama in the Senate. He quickly developed a national reputation for activism and naval preparedness. This activism along with his good family connections meant he was well liked by the Old Confederate planter Gentry and the new more aggressive Longstreet Industrialist Whigs. He gained membership to the Senate Naval Affairs committee and became a forceful advocate for modernizing the Confederate Navy. For most of the 1880’s to 1900’s the Confederate Navy remained tied to building coastal defense battleships. Most of these were little more than floating turrets incapable of projecting power beyond the Caribbean or the Confederate Coast. The Navy did however invest in the purchased of 6 armored cruisers after the Haitian Crises in attempt to prevent US domination of the Caribbean.

With the rise of President Mahan and his aggressive two ocean Navy budget many from across the CSA wanted to join the Naval Arms Race. This notion was quickly shot down as the Army wielded a disproportionate amount of interest in the Confederate government. Nearly all the Presidents had been ex- army officers. As a result the Confederacy would remain predominately a land power. Semmes became the leader of those that wanted to emphasize a guerre de course at sea. Knowing the CSA could not match the US’s resources or naval budget, he invoked his Grandfather in pushing for a different naval doctrine. It called for smaller faster ships to raid US Merchant marine and coast. By 1905 his ideas reached ascendency. The Confederacy was quick to purchase knew turbine engine torpedo boats and torpedo boat destroyers. It also began the domestic construction of light cruisers powered by oil and not coal. This allowed them to operate longer and for farther distances. Diplomatically he also pushed for better cooperation with the British Navy, many argue after the war that he transformed the Confederate Navy into merely an extension of the Royal Navy.

Because of reputation for broad insights on military and foreign policy he was selected as Vice President in 1909, under Woodrow Wilson. He served to balance the ticket and reassure the more reactionary Whigs. The two went on to trounce their radical liberal opponents. During the early part of Wilson’s presidency he remained a voice for naval and diplomatic affairs. He worked to remind Wilson of the importance of the alliance with the UK (something the anglophile Wilson needed little reminding of). When the United Kingdom began pressuring the CSA to construct or purchase dreadnoughts to relieve some of the pressure put on them by the US Naval increases, it was Semmes that brokered the deal of purchasing the new fast Battlecruisers. This fit into his policy of emphasizing speed over armor. Most importantly his interest in asymmetrical naval warfare drove the navy to purchase the most advanced submersibles craft and designs from the UK. This ensured that the CS Navy entering the Great War was on the cutting edge of submersible technology, despite it having been invented in the United States, by Irish immigrant John Phillip Holland.

The War

When the Great War broke out in 1914, the country enthusiastically embraced Wilson's idealistic war aims, expecting a brief war. However, by 1915, it quite clear that the war would be stretching on for indefinitely, and that the next president would inherit the unfinished conflict.
During the Great War President Wilson had little to do with day to day military operations, he left this up to his Secretary of War Emmanuel Sellars. Sellars was a scion of the plantation aristocracy and a VMI graduate. Sellars had been chairman of the Confederate House Military committee in the pre-great war period. Wilson selected the conservative Sellars as Secretary of War to assuage his less reformist Whig colleagues. When war broke out Secretary Sellars enthusiastically headed the civilian side of the war. Sellars was a known Fire-eater and a long time political ally of Chief of Staff Clifton Rodes Breckinridge. Both were adamant that the CSA must retain the initiative in the war or they would be defeated.

Vice President Semmes at first stuck to advising on the Naval aspect of the war, he promoted the use of mines and submarines to offset the US’s overwhelming superiority. However as the Presidential election loomed he campaigned on the idea that he could prosecute the war more vigorously than his Radical Liberal opponent. This meant putting the CSA back on the offensive. He promised to crush the Red uprising and increase the CSA’s industrial output. This coincided with the overall strategy of the CS Civil and Military leadership at the time. Semmes handily defeated his opponent, Doroteo Arango, in the 1915 election. While the Red Rebellion was effectively put down in 1916, the Great War still dragged on.

The Presidency
He took the oath of office on March 21st, 1916 and in his inaugural address promised to do everything to secure the CSA’s victory. Almost immediately after the inauguration the Army of Virginia launched its spring offensive. Unlike his predecessor Semmes closely followed the progress of the battles, spending night and day at the War Department. Semmes was disheartened by the failure to breakthrough US lines, he knew that the CSA had expended more ammunition in this battle than all of its major battles combined. These failures pushed him into the defensive camp and at odds with the Secretary of War and Chief of Staff.

By the end of 1916, the C.S. was in a bad way. Although the U.S. took more casualties than the C.S., even considering that the U.S. was fighting in Canada, the U.S. still outnumbered the C.S. 2 to 1. Semmes realized that the only way to keep the C.S. in the fight was to arm and mobilize the CSA’s black population. In order to do this, Semmes also had to offer citizenship to the veterans. He introduced a bill to the Confederate congress, asking for the backing from the more progressive elements of the Whig party, including Anne Colleton. This again put him on a collision course with his more conservative Secretary of War Sellars.

Sellars was unequivocally against it believing the CSA could hold the line against the North with out black soldier. He argued that with the CSA female white population and its male black population taking industrial jobs, its white population could provide enough conscripts until 1918. However analysts in the war department argued that in its present state it could never retake the offensive. Sellars tried to organize the Whig party to stop it. After many heated Cabinet meetings President Semmes asked Sellars for his resignation and replaced him with Attorney General Carter Glass. The bill passed through both houses of Congress with little change, and Semmes signed it into law. Nonetheless, Semmes fell out of favor with the white soldiers and sailors who had put down the Red Rebellion.

Unfortunately, by this time, the U.S. had developed barrels, using them to achieve breakthroughs on multiple fronts. Alternatively, the black soldiers, undertrained and inexperienced, were not used successfully in the front lines, further incurring the wrath of the white veterans. When C.S. allies France and Russia fell out of the war in 1917, Semmes sent feelers to U.S. Congresswoman Flora Hamburger, seeking a peace agreement. When Hamburger brought Semmes' unofficial proposal to Roosevelt, Roosevelt turned it down.

After the C.S. fell to the United States' decisive Barrel Roll Offensives, Semmes had no choice but to accept peace on Roosevelt's terms. While the Freedom Party would blame Semmes for completely giving into US demands, the truth was more complicated. The CSA refused to surrendered completely and even planned for a continuing the war if this was the US ‘s demands. Instead the CS agreed to harsh but reasonable conditions considering the state of the CS Army. CS General staff knew that continuing the war until both Canada and the CSA was occupied, would last until at least the end of 1918, if not into 1919. While the Army of Northern Virginia had collapsed. The CS general Staff was organizing a new Army in Richmond, for an apocalyptic show down with the US if they continued the war. In the interwar period, Richmond like Philadelphia had been heavily fortified. The General Staff projected that any attempt to conquer Richmond would take most of 1918 and hundreds of thousands of lives. This was important diplomatic–leverage for the Confederacy. It was the careful negotiation of the Semmes government that allowed the CSA to keep Tennessee. Eventually the C.S was forced to disarm and give up substantial territory, including the states of Kentucky and Sequoyah, as well as parts of northern Virginia, Arkansas, Sonora, and part of the pan-handle of Texas (which the U.S. christened the new state of Houston). The Confederacy was also forced to pay reparations for the damage done to US territory in Washington DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Kentucky. The final figure would not be set, and would be based on post war estimates. President Roosevelt vowed they pay no less two billion of 1914 dollars. He further demanded that it be paid in species, oil or steel. Steel was quickly abandoned after lobbying by the US steel industry.

The Weakness of the Post War Confederate Government

Immediately following the end of active combat between the USA and CSA the Semmes administration was facing one crisis after another. First it had to deal with the 40,000 homeless veterans sleeping in the capitol square, it was becoming increasingly clear that many of these veterans were armed and embittered over the new treaty. In December 1917, over 30,000 gathered in Capitol Square to denounce the treaty. Only the immediate deployment of 15,000 troops armed with what was left of the CSA’s heavy machine guns prevented them from storming the Capitol and General Staff HQ. Many remained in the Capitol homeless and bitter but the threat of this soldier’s coup had ended.

Second the CSA had to face the possibility of the Red Rebellion reigniting. After the armistice Red guerillas in hiding began attacking towns and even captured Columbus Georgia, declaring a new Revolutionary Republic of the Chattahoochee in September of 1917. There were fears that the hundreds of thousands of black veterans would join up with the Red rebels again. To prevent this the administration decided to honor its promise to the black veterans and grant them citizenship. Many in Semmes’ Whig party wanted to repudiate the promise. Many Whig Congressmen felt the promise was made in duress and the black soldiers failed to live up to the purpose of the bill, which presupposed CSA victory in the war. These Congressman included former Secretary of War and now Georgian Senator Emmanuel Sellars and former General of the Army of Northern Virginia now Senator Wade Hampton V. Common concerns were that the enfranchising of black citizens which would only increase the growing power of the radical liberals. Semmes made the hard choice of fighting these calls from his own party and upholding the promise to returning black veterans preventing, further civil war within the CSA.

While the honoring the citizenship promise to Black veterans was an important step to restoring order, the CSA was not out of the woods yet. There was still the problem of the Red guerillas still at large. The Treaty of Arlington stripped the country of its heavy weapons like artillery, tanks and aircraft and left it with a standing force of 100,000. It was becoming clear this would not be enough to prevent a full scale red revolt like in 1915. To get around the limits imposed by the treaty the CS Deputy Chief of Staff proposed to President Semmes that it form a secret office designed to work around the treaty limits. Nominally called the Troop Training Office its real mission would be to hide arms and recruit and direct armed groups of veterans to fight the red rebels. This office would be secretly under the purview of the Deputy Chief of Staff J.E.B Stuart II.

The same homeless returning veterans that threatened to attack the capitol were organized into units to fight the remaining Red guerillas. These groups were armed with weapons from secret government stores. Over the next six months they hunted down the remaining red cells. Brandishing names like The Veterans Brigades, Free Corps, Forrest’s Clan, Tin Hats Revenge Battalion, Lee’s Boys, Redemption Army and Sons of the Confederacy; these groups methodically and brutally hunted down Red Cells. The record of their atrocities included the complete destruction of Columbus, Georgia and Phenix City, Alabama. When the Veterans groups seized the Red Capitol they were shocked to find large-scale cooperation of the cities whites. In an orgy of violence these soldiers burnt the cities to the ground and hung any male or female they deemed a participant in the Republic, white or black.

By mid 1918 the red rebellion was over. However the CS General Staff proposed allowing these groups to hide and keep their weapons. President Semmes was uncertain of this decision, but Deputy Chief of Staff Stuart persuaded him of the merits of this policy. These units could provide an unofficial defense force for the CSA, should the need arise. Such a need arose 1919 when former Secretary of War initiated the aborted Sellars Coup.

By 1919 the CSA Congress included two Red, more than six Socialist and a dozen independent right winging Congressman. Luckily the Radical Liberals had also lost seats to these fringe candidates. Still The Whigs were losing control over Congress and Semmes was losing control over his party. With another congressional election was approaching and now a presidential election was looming. There were fears that the Radical Liberals might win the election and the Whig party might loose more control of Congress to another extremist party’s like the Freedomists or Redemsionists. The approaching electoral viability of black citizens terrified the Whig for the 1920 elections.

Sellars played on these fears secretly eliciting support from the more reactionary parts of the Whig congressional members. He took the next step and colluded with Chief of Staff Breckenridge to seize Semmes and force him to resign, there by installing Sellars as interim dictator. The conspirators did not even pretend to adhere to constitutional norms, instead Sellars sold it as a revolution one that the Whig rank and file would easily support thanks to Semmes increasing unpopularity. Sellars planned to repudiate the Negro Service Act, declare martial law, stabilize the currency and prepare the nation for the next war with the United States.

Breckinridge agreed out of fear that he would soon be dismissed for having lost the war. Breckenridge an old school officer soon set out to organize those officers still loyal to him and all the unit commanders around Richmond. The two began contacting sympathetic battalion and Regimental commanders in around Richmond. By June 24, 1919, they had gathered more than 10,000 active duty troops that would support them. Possibly another 10,000 in North Carolina that would join them if it looked like the plan was succeeding. The plan was to launch the coup on the early hours of July 4th, a symbolic gesture. The plan was contingent on it being as quick and bloodless as possible, they knew this was the only way they could gain the support of the population and army.

Semmes quickly learned of the plot from the spies and the US ambassador James Watson Gerard. Ambassador Gerard warned that if there were a military coup, the US would not stand by and do nothing. Further that even the appearance that the treaty would not be followed to would be a provocation enough for the invasion and occupation of the Capitol by the US Army. Semmes knew President Roosevelt enough to know this was no idle threat. Through spies in the war department President Semmes learned Deputy Chief of Staff J.E.B. Stuart III was not involved in the plot. Breckenridge feared Stuart as a rival and did not include him in the plot. Stuart had learned of the coup and was horrified by it. Like his mentor President Jackson, Stuart believed in the Confederate Constitution and the subordination of the military to the Civilian Government. He believed any overt interference by the army in politics would be the beginning of the end for the Confederacy. He also feared the reaction of President Roosevelt and did not want to restart a war that caused such devastation, not yet anyway.

By the time he was approached by the President, Stuart had already been making moves to sabotage the Breckenridge- Sellars coup. Stuart had already recalled several stolid Whig citizen militias to the capital region, through the auspices of the Black Staff by June 20th. Stuart immediately agreed to support the President and the constitution. Stuart told the President that he could have 15,000 armed and organized men in and around the capital by the June 1st. Because neither of them knew when the coup might take place, Semmes approached Radical Liberal leaders in secret to see if they could stand to protect the Confederate government. Without being told what was happening the Radical Liberal leaders agreed. The Radical Liberals had been organizing militias as well. Knowing that any seizure of power would like mean the arrest and imprisonment of the Radical Liberal leadership they had made preparations to protect themselves. Also many black leaders knew that the returning black veterans had the most to lose if the coup took place, Radical Liberal leaders said they could provide more than 5,000 armed black veterans.

For a week Richmond stood on a knifes edge, luckily for President Semmes the reinforced citizen militias were in place outside Richmond before Breckenridge and Sellars made their move. On June 1st Semmes called Breckenridge to the Confederate Grey House. Knowing Breckenridge was the less enthusiastic of the two conspirators, President Semmes confronted Breckenridge with the evidence of the conspiracy. General Stuart also informed him of the Militia’s superiority of numbers in the area. That if Breckenridge attempted to mass his soldier he would bring the Militias into the city to defend the capitol. This would mean there would be no orderly coup and the Confederate Army would be seen as being beaten back by armed citizens, including units of black veterans. This would cause wide spread Civil War and destroy the honor of the Confederate Army. It even may cause states like Texas that often chafed under Richmond’s authority to secede. After several hours of browbeating Breckenridge caved. He saw the futility of their plans and resigned on the spot. He gave Sellars’ location and the names of the Regimental Commanders who supported the Coup. He was allowed the dignity of retiring if he promised to remain away from the capitol and politic, less the president would let the story leak.

Sellars was arrested inside his Richmond home, he was offered the deal of trial for treason or exile as ambassador to Argentina. Sellars chose exile and died mysteriously in Buenos Aires in 1921, before the beginning of the election season. Over the next week all complicit in the plot were arrested and cashiered out of the army. President Semmes immediately made Stuart Chief of Staff of the Confederate Army. He also allowed War Department to continue to make use of the Black Staff, as long as it remained secret and unofficial. Stuart also had to promise to not meddle in politics or use the Black Staff to manipulate Confederate or State elections. Stuart agreed that as long as he was Chief of Staff, the army would remain out of politics.

Reparations

Underlying all these issue was the question of reparations and inflation. All throughout the war prices of basic commodities were going up and the value of Confederate Bank notes were declining. At the Treaty of Philadelphia the Confederate States agreed to pay reparations for starting the war. The reparations for the damage done to US property alone came to two billion dollars, all of it to be paid in specie, steel or oil at 1914 prices. Many Socialists like Rep. Flora Hamburg considered it to be a crushing burden to lay on the proletariat of the Confederate States. Semmes and his Secretary of the Treasury Thomas Watt Gregory, knew this was not an unreasonable sum. However these payments were on top of the crippling interest payments owed to the United Kingdom. The Confederacy was facing hard choices everywhere. They were facing crippling interest payments to British lenders, they were required to pay US reparations by treaty from dwindling gold and oil supplies. Further any increases in unemployment might drive poor whites into the hands of the Radical Liberals or Reds.

It was under this pressure that Secretary of the Treasury Gregory hit upon a highly controversial plan. He proposed to the President that the Confederate States intentionally radically devalue its currency. By doing this it would allow the Confederacy to flood the international market with cheap goods. This would allow them to increase their import to export ratios and make needed specie. Further it would destabilize the international market, which may get the British to re-negotiate its interest rates and make the US forgive its reparation payments. It also had the bonus of creating jobs for poor whites and blacks, which would help to stem the growth of Marxism.

The downside would be felt largely by the old landed aristocracy and the Confederate Banking interests. Both of these groups were of greatly diminished power and influence after the war. Despite the ravages of the red rebellion the old plantation owner class still control a vast amount of the nations wealth. Their failure to address the problems creating the red rebellion had made them increasingly unpopular. The hyper inflation was seen as a way to distribute their wealth, without out right seizing it. Confederate Bankers were equally despised in the aftermath of the Great War. They were largely seen as war profiteers, who drained the national wealth. President Semmes agreed and with backing from the Confederates Industrialists and Oil Cartels and continued the policy of hyperinflation.

At first the policy seemed to be successful, flooding the market with cheap goods did gain the Confederate States a decent amount of revenue. It helped to maintain employment and industrial output. This helped the prevent the expansion of the socialist movement with white industrial workers. It also was successful in dispossessing the Plantation Class of much of its wealth and influence. This helped to increase the power of the Whig Industrialists and oil cartel owners. It even caused Britain to renegotiate some of their more outrageous loan interest rates in their quest to stabilize the Confederate economy and international market. The only hold outs were the United States still led by the Democrats and still drunk on the suffering of their long time enemy. They refused to end reparations and passed a new tariff on Confederate goods.

Over the next four years inflation continued to cause upheaval in the Confederate economy, although it succeeded in maintaining employment rates, it had many unforeseen affects. The near meaningless of money led to a dramatic increase of violent crimes, including arson, robbery, rape and murder. It contributed to a feeling of lawlessness that drove average confederate citizens to arm themselves for defense. It contributed to the rise of anti-democratic parties, the most famous of course being the Freedom Party. Most devastating it wiped out the savings of the Middle Class one of the Whig party’s most important power bases. Hyper inflation eroded the gains the middle class had made over the past 30 years. This led to dissatisfaction in the old order and even democracy itself.

Election of 1921

It was in this situation that the Confederate people headed to the polls in 1921. The Radical Liberals picked Ainsworth Layne. Layne was earnest in his desire to reconcile with both the United States and with the colored residents of the C.S., unpopular positions immediately after the Great War. During the campaign, both the Whigs and the Freedom Party made much of the fact that Layne was Harvard-educated, and during one speech, accused Layne of wanting to take the C.S. back into the United States. The Freedom party naturally chose its party leader the young fire brand Jake Featherston. Featherston ran on a campaign that railed against the Whig Party which led the nation to defeat, the CSA Black population that was rewarded for stabbing the Army in the back, the Whigs for ruining the nations currency and generally to make the confederacy strong again.

The Whigs leadership knew they were facing there hardest election since the Party’s formation. Semmes was the first Confederate President to lose a war and as a result the most unpopular in its history. Despite his handling of the post war crises, inflation and continued violence was destroying the Party reputation. The Whig Party therefore looked to an outsider, not tainted by the Parties handling of the war or post war decisions. They also needed a candidate that projected an image of strength and confidence.

After a confused Convention the Whig Party chose Wade Hampton V as their nominee. A scion of one of the Confederacies founding families his grandfather had been a General in the War of Secession and a powerful Senator from South Carolina. His father entered politics and served as Speaker of the House from 1888-1894. Lieutenant General Wade Hampton V was the commander of the Army of the Northern Virginia from 1914- 1916. He led the army during the opening invasion of Pennsylvania and the capture of Washington DC. Though he failed to capture Philadelphia his skillful handling of the Army of Northern Virginia made him a popular national commander. There was talk of his replacing Clifton Rodes Breckinridge as Chief of Staff, however President Semmes decision to adopt a defensive strategy prevented this.

When he was dismissed from his position as commander of the Army of the Northern Virginia he was made commander of the Virginia Militia. He was a popular figure in Virginia and the capitol. He toured the state and the country stirring up hope for the CSA in its darker hour, often posing over the wreckage of downed US bombers. When the war ended he was one of the was one of the few commanders who road out the war without losing his reputation. When a vacancy for the position of Senator of South Carolina his home district he was selected by the South Carolina State legislature.

As a candidate he tried to project himself as a symbol of the Confederates dashing Pre- War past. He campaigned as a law and order candidate that would return the nation to strength but avoid war with the US. Most importantly he promised to make the CSA currency sound and end hyperinflation. He lambasted administration policies that had led to inflation and promised to work a new deal with the new US president to adjust reparations payments.
Though he was nowhere near as demonically charismatic as Jake Featherston, he was still an excellent campaigner in his own right. Most Historians often points to Featherston media savy campaign as the harbinger of the future, however they often overlooks solid astute campaigning of Wade Hampton V. By selecting Burton Mitchel as his Vice President Hampton had reached out to the new generation of western Confederate politicians that made their money from Oil and were not nearly as hide bound. By virtue of his name he garnered support among the CSA’s old guard. By presenting a clear plan to end inflation he appealed to the CSA middle class and bankers. His candidacy provided substance as opposed to Featherston, who offered nothing but vitriol. Finally by campaigning as a law and order candidate he was able to paint Featherston and his Stalwarts as another group causing chaos in crime.

Through all of this Semmes remained on the sidelines not getting involved knowing he would only hurt whichever candidate he chose to support. He privately joked at Jake Featherston’s having to face his old commander for control of the presidency. When those in the Cabinet and his advisor approached the subject of canceling the election if Featherston won he wanted to hear none of it. He told his closest advisors he did not weather one coup to start his own. When Chief of Staff JEB Stuart Jr. never brought it up, he knew he had picked the right Chief of Staff. He watched as Wade Hampton V eked out a victory over Featherston. He briefly met the incoming President and informed him of Stuart’s Black Staff and warned him of how tenuous democracy remained in the CSA. He remained in silent as Wade Hampton V, he promised a new day in the Confederacy and berated Semmes and Wilson’s handling of the war inauguration. He left the capitol that day in to return to his home outside Mobile, Alabama.

Retirement

After leaving Richmond he lived a quiet life in his Alabama home, writing his memoirs in 1928, which never sold well. In it them tried to defend his conduct of the war, remind the CSA of the good peace he had won for the CSA. He watched in horror at President Hampton’s assassination and was a pallbearer at the funeral. He tried to defend the policies that led to hyperinflation and remind them of the thread Confederate society was hanging on in the years after the war. He showed through the help of his former his former Secretary of the treasury, that because of inflation the CSA paid less for the war than any major combatant. He tried to attribute the nations booming prosperity to this controversial choice at the time. He never spoke or wrote of the attempted Sellars coup or the fact he might have had to resort to armed black veterans to defend the government. He lived to see the collapse of the Whig Party and rise of Featherston to the Presidency. He saw how the CS middle class finally turned on the Whigs, many stating because they feared inflation and instability would return. He quietly admitted to friends that his inflationary policies had helped to end reparations at the cost of destroying democratic government in the Confederacy.

He died in 1938. Though he never publicly supported the Freedom Party, in private he was happy to see the Confederacy’s re-arming. Weeks before his death he secretly contacted President Featherston in a letter. He told him how he hoped to live to see the day of a renewed war between the US and Confederacy, to restore the national honor. Featherston denied him a state funeral.
 
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