Lands of Ice and Mice: An Alternate History of the Thule

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By the way, would the Matsumae reach as far as the Northwest *Tlingit areas eventually? IOTL in the 18th century there seems to have been indirect trade trade with East Asia of sorts...

I think that the Japanese may explore the Alaskan coast, but it's well beyond their viable commercial range. So no real impact. Most Japanese attention and activity will focus on the Asian coast. So no real acquisitions or transfers from the Alaskan Thule or Thule/Tlingit.


Would cattails grow well in the Pacific Siberian islands and coasts, or in Hokkaido? (I suppose so).

I believe Rice grew when it was introduced to Hokkaido. The reports are that in the late 1600's, the Ainu of Hokkaido and the Kurils obtained potatoes from the Japanese. I suspect that Tlingit domesticates will be too big a jump.


I can see at least a partial transfer of agriculture to the Ainu and the Japanese themselves. OTOH, the Japanese are already growing potatoes, that should do well in the Kurils, Kamchatka, Southern Alaska and BC...

The Kamchatkans won't wholeheartedly incorporate all of Thule Agriculture, just bits and pieces. But they'll also obtain bits and pieces of Japanese Agriculture, imports, and a few indigenous components to cobble together their package.

It will be interesting to see if Potatoes can make the jump from the Kurils, to Kamchatka, and from there to the Aleutians. If they can, then likely potatoes will hit southern Alaska.
 
In deference to DanBenson's wild enthusiasm and unhappy schedule, I'm going to put the Japanese stuff on hold for a little while, until he's available to post his heart's content.

I might go back over to Hudson Bay, where the medicine wars are starting up. Alternately, we might peep in at the White Sea, and check out what's going on there...
 
The Matsumae will probably offer the Thule the same stuff they offered the Ainu, laquerware, rice, sake, wooden utensils, gold and silver jewlery, and *iron cookpots*. Here's another source for sophisticated metallurgy to enter the Thule sphere, as a source for reverse-engineering if nothing else.

Desire is hardly the problem. The record for indigenous cultures was a near insatiable demand for sophisticated products of Western or Japanese culture.
Let me put it this way: Until you've tried to cook a stew by digging a hole, lining it with the skin of your kill, filling it with meat, plants and water, and then heating rocks in a fire and dropping the rocks heated from a nearby fire in.... you will not appreciate the godsend that is an iron cookpot. Even such simple things as twine and rope are wonderfully valuable.


It's harder to talk about what the Japanese traders have to gain from this relationship. OTL Matsumae exports to mainland Japan were mostly bulk foodstuffs (fish) and fur.

Bulk stuff is expensive to transport, especially relatively low value materials, relatively large distances. The Matsumae purchases OTL wouldn't be sufficiently valuable enough to go much past Hokkaido. You couldn't make a profit bringing that stuff down from Kamchatka. And there'd be no need to go to Kamchatka, because the local production in Hokkaido would be entirely sufficient anyway.

There was some specialist trade in falcons,

There's always a minor trade in exotic critters. It seldom amounts to much. Not unless you're running a Roman Colosseum.


but little attention was given to ivory or metals....or guns.

Well, metals are a tricky thing. You have to mine them, either transport the ore home, or smelt it on site. It's extremely expensive. Generally, only gold or silver offer the hope of a return. The big problem is finding a valuable deposit.... that's usually more luck than anything.

You'll recall during arctic exploration, there was an expedition that thought they found gold, came back a few years later with a gold mining fleet, and lost their shirt. That kind of prospecting is 99.9999 per cent of the time a dead end.

I pick Ivory as the gateway trade item for a few reasons.

1) Historical precedent - Walrus ivory was one of the key trade goods for the Greenland colony and one of the economic backbones of its export economy. The loss of the Ivory market to Africa was one of the death knells for Greenland. Ivory was also a huge African export, once those trade routes opened up. Historically, Ivory has been an a rare, high value commodity.

2) Ivory is really portable. It doesn't rot, it doesn't decay, it stores indefinitely, it's very easy to transport, can be divided or subdivided with little loss. It's much easier to handle than roseroot or furs or other items.

3) There actually does seem to be some contemporaneous artistic and artisanal tradition within Japan at the time that made use of the small quantities of Ivory that they obtained. In short, it's a trade good for which there may be a pre-existing potential demand waiting in the Japanese culture. Ivory may be something that they'll just pick up and run with.

4) Ivory in the 19th century became a huge and valuable import item for Japan, so we're not unreasonable in possibly backdating it as an artisanal good. This to my mind reinforces item (2).

5) Ivory is a non-renewable resource which has an interesting consumption/acquisition profile. Okay, look - you go out to the Aleutians, Ivory is all over the place, its a potentially valuable good, and there's tons of it. You harvest the walruses, you trade with the natives you go home and make a ton of money. But then, you go back out - the walruses are all harvested, or at least the ones that they were willing to let you harvest, and the natives have already traded all the cheap ivory they're willing to let you have... so now it's expensive and difficult. Unless you go out to the next Island.... and the next.... and further up the coast... and further... So, it's a valuable commodity which can maintain a continuous, even an expanding supply over a long period.... but to maintain that continuous/expanding supply, you have to go further and further and further every year, or every few years.

So essentially, it is quite possible to establish a stable ivory market, and to meet the demand of that market, and even a growing demand, in a relatively continuous even fashion, that would take Japanese sailors eventually far into the Thule realms, with a reasonable prospect of guaranteed profit. Because the profit is guaranteed with a relatively small but very durable cargo, it also allows the sailors and merchants to experiment with other commodities which might be valuable.

This would be where you'd start to see people coming back home, with 'risky' cargos like Roseroot, Walrus Hide, Sealskin, Otter fur, or other Thule goods - you have the luxury of taking a chance and maybe selling some of this other stuff. These secondary goods, if they find a market, then become part of the trading network. Indeed, some of them may supplant Ivory, or at least rival it in importance. Ivory trade becomes the cutting edge that opens up things like Roseroot as a significant and perhaps dominant export.
 
Finally got caught up.
The ivory thing is justifiable as luxury jewelry, but I think the big demand will come for ivory as medicine. All they need is some nerd at court to find an old Chinese source that says walrus ivory cures impotence or gallstones or something. Then they get a source of *giant ivory*?? Yatta!

A fun possibility: if the nerd in question is a member of the imperial rather than Bakufu court, you might get a race between the Shogun and the Emperor to strengthen Thule contact. The emperor would lose the race, but the hint of competition (the Emperor and his relatives being the only people in Japan the Shogun can't just execute) the might push the Bakufu out of its conservationism and get it behind a northward venture.

As much as I love cattail agriculture, I doubt it would catch on in Japan (Honshu, anyway). Cattails can grow there, but 1600-1860 is NOT a time for innovation in Japan. The basic guiding principle of the Tokugawa government was changeless-ness, a place for everyone and everyone in their place. Cattails won't come to Japan unless the Tokugawas go.
 
In deference to DanBenson's wild enthusiasm and unhappy schedule, I'm going to put the Japanese stuff on hold for a little while, until he's available to post his heart's content.

Not gonna get me hooked on Thule/Japanese interaction and then take it away from me! Here come my suggestions!

Trade: The more I think about it, the more I like walrus and mammoth ivory as a trade item, especially if there's a medical/magical explanation for it, and especially if it comes packaged with roseroot and (later, in the long term) ice.

Potatoes: Yes. They were happily adopted by Japanese and Ainu people despite a very long from the Americas, so I am willing to be they'll be widely adopted in northeast Asia and even North America.

Guns: There is a potential big butterfly here, where the Matsumae look for ways to supply the Thule with guns and cannon, the Bakufu freaks out and bans Thule trade, and the Matsumae revolt with the aid of the European powers and declare a Principality of Ezo. Hijinks ensue with Europeans trying to turn Ezo into a puppet and horn in on North Pacific trade (as they did with Japan's South Pacific trade---google the Red Seal Ships), the Shogun reconsidering gunpowder, especially in the form of cannon emplacements around its northern ports, and Thule experiments with big boats and big guns.

The other possibility is a failed Matsumae/Dutch rebellion, even more draconian isolationism, no guns for the Thule, a Bakufu-regulated trade of cookpots for ivory, and an 1800s Japan that includes Sakhalin and the Kurils. (plus some demographic jiggery-pockery with higher Thule populations made possible by potatoes) Even in that conservative timeline, there will be a very different strategy adopted by the equivalent of the Meiji Restoration, with a greater colonial push northward.
 
No possibility of the Shogunate themselves taking over the Thule trade ?

Unlikely. In general, trading was beneath the station of a samurai, let alone great Daimyos like the Shoguns. The Matsumae were AFAIK among the few exceptions (another being the clan controlling Tsushima IIRC).
 
You might make a parallel with Okinawa and say the Bakufu absorbed the some Thule population as a tributary, I suppose. I'm not confident, though. Okinawa was a rich kingdom with a historical connection to Japan and a language (sort of) in common. Although it would probably be useful to look at what Satsuma did with the Okinawans, and compare it to what the Matsumae might do with the Thule.
 
Guns: There is a potential big butterfly here...

True. But the Siberian Thule are going to come to a point where they want guns, or at least cannon, badly. If the Japanese can't or won't supply them, and there's any other option available... such as the dutch, they'll pursue it.
 
You might make a parallel with Okinawa and say the Bakufu absorbed the some Thule population as a tributary, I suppose. I'm not confident, though. Okinawa was a rich kingdom with a historical connection to Japan and a language (sort of) in common. Although it would probably be useful to look at what Satsuma did with the Okinawans, and compare it to what the Matsumae might do with the Thule.

I can see that for the Ainu in the Kurili islands, possibly along the entire chain, but hardly much further.
There's still Kamchatka between them and the Thule.

On another note, it's relevant to know whether the Thule have a stable presence on the shores of the Shelikov Gulf, that would provide seaborne access for and to them on the western side of Kamchatka, and much closer to the lines of contact with the Russians (and the guys in between, most notably Evens and Koryaks).
If so, keeping with the tradition of Sea settlements, there's a possibility that the Thule have a luckier time in the Shantar Islands who had no permanent population. Problem is, the islands are pretty a long way from the Shelikov Gulf, although this place may offer a midpoint stop and other costal islands in the gulf itself have potential as first steps.
Shantar is interesting because puts the local Thule much closer to China and Korea and may put Sakhalin into the play.
All in all, it seems far-fetched. We've been seeing the Thule setting up shop in pretty much every habitable piece of turf the could eke out any approximation of living off, but this is really quite a challenge even for them.
 
True. But the Siberian Thule are going to come to a point where they want guns, or at least cannon, badly. If the Japanese can't or won't supply them, and there's any other option available... such as the dutch, they'll pursue it.
Right. So for in order for the Thule to get Japanese cannon, the Matsumae will have to be willing to break the ban, the long-term consequence will almost certainly be their open rebellion against Edo. Whether that rebellion would be successful or not I don't know enough right now to say. My first reaction is Dutch participation is very likely.
 
Can we talk of two dutch-thule approaches?

One in Siberia, and other near Svalbard/Iceland/Scandinavia (too many butterflies)?
 
Can we talk of two dutch-thule approaches?

One in Siberia, and other near Svalbard/Iceland/Scandinavia (too many butterflies)?

Well, it will take quite some time to the Dutch to realise that the guys their clients in Ezo are selling cannons to are related to the ones they are buying roseroot from in the Barents sea. In any event, guns are likely be part of the deal at both ends.
And when the Russians realize who the the Dutch are selling stuff to, the reaction isn't likely to please the Estates in the slightes.
"Who's the idiot who decided we are at war with Muscovy without even bothering telling us?". :D

That gives some ideas for semi-stable long term alignments in the North European balance of power; my sketch:
Russia+Denmark+England(+Scotland)+Austria(+Spain?) vs. Sweden+Norway+United Provinces+France(+Ottomans?).
Places like Prussia, Poland and Portugal are sort of wild cards (hell, Portugal might not even regain independence ITTL). Poor little Poland has basically no friends at all and basically survives mostly because Sweden and Russia will be too busy hating each other to destroy it (as it was the case in 1655 IOTL). If really forced to choose, the Poles would probably hate Sweden worse than Russia, but that would be a close call.
Prussia might be a Swedish ally, and maybe Courland too is Gustavus manages to detach it from Poland (Sweden will have trouble choosing if they hate Russia's guts more than Poland's as well, although I think that in the end, until there are Vasa kings in both countries Sweden would see Poland as the worst existential threat, only second to Denmark).
 
Well, it will take quite some time to the Dutch to realise that the guys their clients in Ezo are selling cannons to are related to the ones they are buying roseroot from in the Barents sea. In any event, guns are likely be part of the deal at both ends.

But if some thules decide to bring some roseroots and place it in Kamtchatka well it can be another major goal for dutch and all the traders, including Japan, only if given all the circs...
 
Here with the blessings of DValdron, if not my old thesis adviser...

Reflections on the Surface of Frigid Brine:

The rise and standardization of Japanese Sendou.

Extending from land and class reform to weapons technology, to food preparation, to rules governing the audience makeup of kabuki performances, Tokugawa consolidation and standardization extended through all aspects of 17th-century Japanese society. The Bakufu “tent government” of Edo patronized and elevated to high art practices such as sadou and nou, previously the province of drunken warriors and peasants, but no new Japanese artform was so un-Japanese as sendou, the Way of Vessels or, as it is often called in early modern European sources, “the Japanese regatta.”

Unlike the other normative artforms that flourished under Tokugawa patronage, which had their roots in Chinese spectacle or Japanese folk-customs, sendou originated in the north, the so-called “Matsumae Frontier” (Matsuzakai) between the Kuril Islands and the Kamchatka Peninsula. Previously far beyond the pale of Edo society, the Frontier underwent a substantive transformation in the second half of the 17th century, as the Matsumae explored and expanded their mercantile interest in the lucrative Thule trade. With its wild fluctuations of luxury prices, the proliferation of gunpowder, and ominous foreign involvement, the Frontier well earned its contemporary sobriquet of “little Sengoku.” For at least half a century, however, the conservative, stability-oriented Edo Bakufu found itself intimately connected to the most rapidly changing society in the world, the Thule.

Matsumae no Takayoshi, Liaison with the Bakufu wrote: “The Hokkaijin (‘North Sea People.’ The modern Hokkokujin, ‘Northlander’ would not come into use until the Imperial Restoration reopened relations with Thule states in the 19th century) are a people entirely without higher culture, but have conquered all the northern seas with excess of personal energy. This vitality they draw from their stone tusks, maintain by means of roseroot, and demonstrate in the frequent races of the small skin ocean-going vessel known as ‘kayak.’ Many of the Ainu and even some members of our own crews partake in the races, despite the danger and admonitions from their superiors. Such is the nature of the sport.”

Such was the nature of the sport that within a generation, wealthy young men were building and racing their own kayaks in Edo Bay. The addition of official rules, fortune-disk tossing, handicap baffles, and of course, improvised verse, followed quickly and even spread back into Thule lands, where they are still practiced.

Although long regarded as purely Japanese innovations, the Thule origins of some core sendou practices have recently come to light. Aklaqov and Tulmak (1997) made definitive links between the syllabic stress rules of sendou and the rowing chants (claxons) used by the Bering Thule. Even the proscribed themes of sendou verse (frustrated desire, the elevation of physical discomfort, search for spiritual lessons in the profane) trace their roots to the Thule imperative to bringing back food from all kayak voyages, as can be seen in Kaikyaku’s most famous verse:

“With clarity all come to understand/ from the reflections on the surface of the frigid brine/ that I have caught nothing/ but the glimmering of light.”

These lines contain obvious allusions to Umiakai's "My net sings like a lute in the gale/I have caught nothing/but a cold" (often translated as "I have pulled up nothing/but the wind") a couplet that itself is a formalization of an early 18th century drinking song.

Sadly, no Thule sources from this time exist. If they did, it is tempting to imagine in them a good deal of good-natured teasing directed at amateur kayakers, returning from a voyage soaked with salt water, nets empty of fish, but eager to try again.
 
:D indeed.

How much wealth is trade with the Thule generating? I'd say the more wealth, the more likely war becomes.

I'd say, all in all, quite a remarkable aggregated one.
Roseroot as a valuable drug, is the most important item, but ivory and furs are going to be very important money makers. They also have other medicinal plants of use such as Labrador tea, Kvan and Arctic Willow. Qviat will be valued as well.
Add any surplus from their whaling (not much I think but still profitable per unit). Other less important possibilities may include cod, exotic animals and strange artisanal artifacts for European collections/wunderkammern (again, very little volume but high profit per unit). Of some of these items, the Thule won't really have much surplus to trade; impinging in their lands and (especially) waters might prove as important as trading with them (and likely to create endless amounts of fuss).
However, I don't see people really getting filthy rich only with Thule trade. It is going to be important, but a lot of what they produce is, for Europeans, available in acceptable quantities nearer home (Norway, Iceland, Lappland, Northern shores of Russia). Trying to bypass Russian/Scandinavian monopolies could be a motive for the Dutch and the British to meddle in Arctic waters, but hardly a reason to consciously consider war with Russia or Sweden by itself (Norway or Iceland might be more tractable victims).
Finally and more critically, the really big deal won't be trade with the Thule but, if possible, trade with Japan (or at least Ezo): that would really be worth fighting a war for.
 
Sadly, no Thule sources from this time exist. If they did, it is tempting to imagine in them a good deal of good-natured teasing directed at amateur kayakers, returning from a voyage soaked with salt water, nets empty of fish, but eager to try again.

Why not? They should have been a literate people for almost a couple of centuries by this point, even in Siberia.
For the rest, lovely piece really.

(As an aside, we should come out with some althistorical geographical names for in-TL sources. I am sure nobody in TTL's present-day would identify "Bering" as a geographical designation).

And fear not, more stuff about language will come. Real life is demanding these days but I'm working on it.
 
Finally and more critically, the really big deal won't be trade with the Thule but, if possible, trade with Japan (or at least Ezo): that would really be worth fighting a war for.

I would love to see a POD that gives us a Republic of Ezo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ezo) in a less than obvious way.

However, I don't know much about Dutch trade with Japan (my area of concentration was pre-Tokugawa) and I can't say for certain whether European Powers would care all that much. The Dutch East India company got gold, silver, and copper from Japan, which they traded with China for silk and porcelain. They might be eager to find a market to replace the one they lost to Japanese xenophobia and Chinese instability, but then again they might conservatively side with the Shogun against Ezo rebels (as they did in the Christian Rebellion).

Portugal might get excited about new souls to convert (and they'd just been kicked out of Japan anyway), so might be eager to send guns to Ezo.

But Spain and England would be very happy to let Japanese Isolationism continue, as it allowed them to get a slice of the Pacific pie. They would probably stay quiet if the Netherlands sided with the Shogun, but Dutch relations with Ezo or the Thule might indeed raise tensions.

How does that fit into your European war?
 
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