Lands of Ice and Mice: An Alternate History of the Thule

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1590 - Matsumae Clan is granted rights over Hokkaido and Japan's northern borders, with special privileges that come as 'defenders of the north.' Merchants under the Matsumae Clan trade with the Ainu, going as far as the Kurils and Sakhalin.

1610 - Thule Ivory, both worked and occasionally raw, begins to filter down the Kurils, and into the possession of Matsumae merchants.

1620 - A Matsumae expedition goes north, seeking the source (or at least, 'a source') of Thule Ivory. It encounters a Thule Sea Settlement on the Kamchatka peninsula. Procuring as much local Walrus Ivory and Walrus harvest as the locals will tolerate, they are directed further north. The expedition follows the coastline, encountering other peoples and a Sea Settlement, and then locates the Aleutians, sailing to the Commander and Near Islands. It returns with a load of worked and raw ivory, some old, some freshly harvested, seal and sea otter furs, medicinal roseroot and other goods. It brings tails, told by the natives, of an Island of Ivory.

1620 - 1645 - Occasional Japanese Merchants, usually one every year or two years, sails north on an ivory hunting expedition. The usual model is that the expedition cruises along Thule lands, either north into Bering, or along the Aleutians, seeking to purchase ivory or walrus rights from locals. As local resources are depleted, they follow the trade routes further and further, supplementing Ivory with secondary trade goods.

1629 - An expedition brings back a live baby walrus to the Matsumae clan. The animal is sent south to Hondo, as a gift for the Shogunate. The animal dies in transit. A second live baby walrus makes the journey in 1634, and is quite the sensation. Thereafter, there is an occasional traffic in exotic arctic mammals, either live or carcasses - Polar Bear, Sea Otter, Sea Cow and Walrus, either as adults or juveniles are occasionally shipped to Hokkaido and beyond.

1632 - First maps of the Alaskan coast by the Japanese. Also during this time, there's evidence of Thule trade networks selecting for ivory. Some of the Walrus Ivory artifacts obtained by the Japanese are later determined to originate in the McKenzie Basin area. Also, first appearances of fossil mammoth ivory artifacts.

1636 - A Japanese trading ship is offered a fossil Mammoth tusk. It pays an appalling premium for the tusk.

1638 - A second fossil ivory tusk is purchased, this one larger and more intact than the first. This one has been transported a large distance across Siberia to a coastal community.

1640 - From a Japanese text "...the Walrus, being the most terrifying killer of the northern seas. Born into modest circumstances, it grows through its life with the largest reaching a length of 500 feet. Like the otter, being a creature of land and sea, in the winter, during the time of ice the Walrus climbs upon the land and preys upon the people and animals there. When it sleeps, its form is taken for a hill, but woe betide those who set their camp upon it. The below of the Walrus may be heard for miles, and paralyzes all who hear it, making its hunting easy. During the spring, the Walrus returns to the water, sending the whales fleeing, and causing the seals to climb upon the land. Sometimes in the water, the walrus will hunt by pretending to be an island, luring mariners to land upon its surface, whence it drowns. The tusks of the greatest walruses are eight to ten feet in length and procured only at great expense and suffering..."

1645 - the First Semi-Permanent Japanese trading station is established, just beyond the Kamchatka peninsula. Other permanent or Semi-Permanent stations are established, further up the Siberian coast in 1648 and 1650, on the Aleutians in 1651 and in Alaska 1653.

1661 - Text from a letter from a Matsumae merchant - "After due ceremony, we were brought into the presence of the mighty chieftain. So great was the honour of the Chieftain, and his importance, that he could not deign to enter the trading station, but must insist upon our attendance.... Thereupon, he caused to be unrolled a great expanse of hide, and within this hide there were five tusks of the Great Walrus, of whom much has been said, but which fortunately has never been encountered. I wish a cannon, he said unto me, with balls and powder in adequate amount. Is this sufficient? I said that this would be more than sufficient, but that we had no cannon to spare, all being part of the ship's or station's complement. He then asked if double the number would be sufficient, and in consideration of such a remarkable sum, I could not help but acknowledge that it would be entirely satisfactory. He then clapped his hands, as if the deal was struck, and his retainers entered with an equal amount of ivory. He inquired if this was to my pleasure, and I had no option to express my gratitude. I was of the opinion that our business was concluded, however, the Chieftain was not, for he said "All is well, this first cannon shall be a token of our arrangments and the measurement of value - when you return in the spring, bring us another thirty, in all respects the same or better."
 

FDW

Banned
Well, it's a lot shorter trip to get roseroot and other valuables to the enormous Chinese market through Japan rather than carrying it all the way from the areas the Europeans can get it from. I think Japanese merchants would dominate that trade if they can get deals with the North Pacific Thule.

Coincidentally the Hudson, Alaskan and particularly Siberian Thule are going to be quite interested indeed in obtaining guns, since Europeans are showing up shortly. So the Thule will have an incentive to give them sweetheart deals. And even without the threat of European conquest, warlike peoples, when introduced to firearms, can create their own demand. See the Musket Wars of the Maori, who, now that I think about it, were in a kind of analogous situation to the Thule pre-Wars. They had a commodity the rest of the world wanted (flax); some tribes of Maori grew more flax so they could trade them for guns so they could take land and slaves to grow more flax so they could trade them for more guns to attack more villages and also to defend themselves against all the other tribes who'd had the same idea. Also the African slave trade had a similar dynamic except the commodity in this case was people. In the Thule's case this would be roseroot.

If the Japanese play their cards right they could have a network of northern satellites, the question is, how receptive are Japanese elites to the interest of trade at this point? Not knowing much about Japanese history I can't really say...

Contrary to what's often said by some, the much of the development of modern Japanese capitalism took place during the Edo Period. This northern trade will allow potentially for an acceleration of that development, and it will also allow a tool for the Shogunate to mitigate the potential impact of Samurai impoverishment, as it emerges.
 
I guess TTL the Thule Cannon Wars are probably going to be a lot more famous than some dinky tribal scrap with muskets off Australia...
 
I’m far from an expert as to what’s going on in the region, but taking a quick survey, here’s the major developments:

Japan - Unified following civil wars and urban strife during the 1580's, the ruling class first warred with Buddhists and then persecuted Christian’s as a foreign influence. Xenophobia eventually resulted in the closing of Japan to foreigners, excepting a token Dutch delegation, in 1635. This closing to foreigners did not include the north, and the Matsumae clan continued to deal with the Ainu. Tensions with Russia eventually lead the Japanese to seeking full control over the Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido.

Korea - The Japanese invaded in 1592 and 1597, as the first step to an attempt to conquer China. The Japanese with European based firearms dominated on land, but did poorly at sea, and were eventually thrown out by civil resistance. Relations with Japan ceased after this until 1609. In 1627 the Manchu invaded. They invaded again in 1636. By this time, China was under Manchu control. The Koreans became fairly isolationist.

China - The Ming Dynasty was in a long period of decline, before being overrun by the Manchu in 1644, establishing the Qing Dynasty. Ming strongholds persisted until 1662.

So far as I can tell, its not clear that any Asian power apart from Japan would become involved in the north pacific. The Koreans, battered from all sides appear to have retreated into their own isolationist phase. They don’t ever seem to have been a sea-trading folk, most of their commerce seems to have been local with the Chinese or Manchu. Their biggest naval interest was defending themselves from Japanese Pirates. It does not appear that during the 1600's or 1700's there was a lot of commerce of any sort with Japan.

The Chinese seem entirely preoccupied with internal matters and trading relations with Japan were historically poor. I don’t know that the Chinese had a lot of sea-trade with other Asian nations, despite the Chinese diaspora. So the notion of a roseroot trade with Japan as the intermediary between the Thule and China seems ... Farfetched.

The Phillipines, of course, were under the control of Spain. To the South, there were the Vietnamese, the Khmer, the Thai, the Malay and the principalities of what is now Indonesia. None of these seem likely to be involved themselves in the Northern trade. But they may have been part of Japanese trade routes before Japan closed itself off in 1635. I’m not sure how that would have played out after.

There may be some platforms for European interest or activity in the Pacific North. The Dutch, after all, were still hanging on with Japan and this may have been a gateway for them to try and develop interests up there. The Spanish and Portugese also had substantial interests in the south.

As nearly as I can guess, the butterflies of Thule/Japanese contact will probably be mostly confined to the Thule, Japanese and Russians.

As to how far it goes for the Japanese over the 1600's, at this point, I can't even guess. Does it remain a lucrative local trade in luxury high end materials - or does it build up into an economically significant commercial relationship which actually has significant implications for Japanese society.

The scale of the Japanese involvement will also reflect on the Thule themselves. Remember, the Russians devastated local cultures and practically wiped out the Sea Otter. Would we see major Japanese impacts on Walrus populations, Sea Otters, Seals... the sort of catastrophic impacts that we saw in the North Atlantic? Will the Thule push back against unrestricted harvest to manage their resources? How much influence or control will the Japanese exert in Thule territories.... dunno. 
 
Contrary to what's often said by some, the much of the development of modern Japanese capitalism took place during the Edo Period. This northern trade will allow potentially for an acceleration of that development, and it will also allow a tool for the Shogunate to mitigate the potential impact of Samurai impoverishment, as it emerges.

Well, if you've got thoughts, I'm happy to listen. From my sketchy readings, yes, I think that you're correct in that you had the evolution of merchant capitalism during the Edo period, and particularly in the north with the Matsumae, the Merchant class exercised a unique degree of autonomy and independence in what was essentially a fringe territory. But beyond that, I'm at sea...
 
I guess TTL the Thule Cannon Wars are probably going to be a lot more famous than some dinky tribal scrap with muskets off Australia...

For the Siberian Thule, the desire for Cannon is being driven directly be encounters with the Russians and their fortresses. But yes, its a technology that will destabilize things here and there. The Medicine Wars are already going on around Hudson Bay.
 
The Chinese seem entirely preoccupied with internal matters and trading relations with Japan were historically poor. I don’t know that the Chinese had a lot of sea-trade with other Asian nations, despite the Chinese diaspora. So the notion of a roseroot trade with Japan as the intermediary between the Thule and China seems ... Farfetched.

The Ming had some capitalistic trends as well IIRC, though I think a Chinese history expert could explain better. They weren't very heavy handed with their merchants, they taxed them lightly, relaxed state monopolies. The Ming had many merchant clans and one could probably trade with someone who trades with Japan if they can't trade with Japan itself...
 
Also Japan has incentive to keep an active firearms industry to produce weapons for trade.

Have the Thule come up with cormorant fishing? I was thinking it's something Japan could introduce, but it seems to have been a southern Japan thing.
 
Historically, the Shogunate in Japan has never really had a super stable source of legitimacy and tax revenue, Northern trade could offer both.
There's an interesting idea. If Thule contact happens early enough (in the 1600s, especially around the rebellious 1670s) the Shogun might want to parlay these people into a threat he could use to unify the country under his protection. A strike against the Thule menace might also be a way to get rid of surplus samurai and win land and loot that could be used to reward loyalty.

But it's equally possible that Edo ignores the Thule entirely and lets the Matsumae deal with them.
 
The Matsumae will probably offer the Thule the same stuff they offered the Ainu, laquerware, rice, sake, wooden utensils, gold and silver jewlery, and *iron cookpots*. Here's another source for sophisticated metallurgy to enter the Thule sphere, as a source for reverse-engineering if nothing else.

It's harder to talk about what the Japanese traders have to gain from this relationship. OTL Matsumae exports to mainland Japan were mostly bulk foodstuffs (fish) and fur. There was some specialist trade in falcons, but little attention was given to ivory or metals....or guns.

Japan selling guns to the Thule will be a problem, given the Tokugawa interdict on gunpowder weapons. Not that guns weren't available, but they were illegal as hell. I doubt any Edo-backed Thule contact will include firearms, but it's just possible that a Matsumae trader figures out how to make them (or even better, buy them from the Dutch on the sly).

Not to say ivory might not be appreciated in Japan, but I think the best bet is a Thule/Matsumae partnership trading roseroot for ironware and alcohol. Japanese consumers would have been as receptive to roseroot as they were to tobacco (i.e. very) and I wouldn't put it past the Tokugawas to designate roseroot as the official intoxicant of the landowning class (they did similar things with food, clothing, and entertainment).

Conclusion: The Matsumae parlaying a Shogun's pardon for roseroot trade into official sanction to make gunpowder weapons again. When a paranoid Bakufu has second thoughts, the Matsumae go directly to the Dutch for their weapons technology, and opens an illicit trading/manufacturing center at Hakodate.

Ref: The Conquest of Ainu Lands: Ecology and Culture in Japanese Expansion, 1590-1800
 
Samurai Thules

Hello DValdron, first of all, excellent TL, great work.

Talking about Kamtchatka, if the herders introduce the Musk Ox and the Caribou, how will they stand against the kamtchatka predators (bears, wild cats, etc)?

Japan - Unified following civil wars and urban strife during the 1580's, the ruling class first warred with Buddhists and then persecuted Christian’s as a foreign influence. Xenophobia eventually resulted in the closing of Japan to foreigners, excepting a token Dutch delegation, in 1635. This closing to foreigners did not include the north, and the Matsumae clan continued to deal with the Ainu. Tensions with Russia eventually lead the Japanese to seeking full control over the Kurils, Sakhalin and Hokkaido.

Given this, and the previous commercial contacts, i'm thinking, how long we must wait to see some Samurai Thules? :cool: :cool: ;)
 
Having the Japanese come to believe that mammoth tusks come from fully grown walruses was sheer comedic brilliance:D

Danbensen's statements on the possible effects of Thule trade on Japan are interesting. Obviously it's not the focus of the timeline, but it's interesting food for thought.
 

The Sandman

Banned
One place the Japanese might find guns to sell the Thule: any leftovers from the Sengoku Jidai that haven't already been dismantled. If you're trying to get rid of all of the guns anyway, you might as well sell them to somebody in exchange for other stuff that you want.

The Japanese might also try dumping some of their Christian population there, since they were trying to get rid of that as well. At least a few Japanese mercenaries are likely to end up involved in the ongoing warfare in Kamchatka and eastern Siberia as well, since there isn't much use for soldiers once the Shogunate finishes consolidating.

As for stuff they might want aside from ivory... qviat, possibly. The usual assortment of drugs and spices. Any European artifacts that make their way along the Siberian coastline would be worth their weight in whatever the Thule might want for them; given the limits of what can be imported through Dejima and the fact that Nagasaki is on the opposite side of Japan, a second source for Western goods that doesn't involve any illicit foreign contact would be quite useful. And ice, assuming that somebody on either the Thule or Japanese side knows how to insulate it; unless I'm much mistaken, ice could fetch a respectable sum in the era before it could be manufactured, and it's something that the Thule should have a surplus of.

One difference between how the Japanese will interact with the Thule as opposed to any Western interaction is that the religious gap is nowhere near as large. In so far as any Thule techniques or crops might make their way to Japan, they won't have the "pagan superstitions" thing as an additional stumbling block to their uptake.
 
I dont think the japs exile their christians into the far north, and if they do, i dont know how the Thule react to their new neighbors.. probably the japs will do as OTL.

Besides the christian prosecution started in 1590, if they didnt exiled to Hokkaido till then, they will not exile them (the mayor prosecutions lasted until 1632).

And well, if the first Japanese settlement is established in 1645, probably a few years later can begin the first approach to guns (early muskets, some katanas), and the japs will see the caribous and musk oxes..
 
I dont think the japs exile their christians into the far north, and if they do, i dont know how the Thule react to their new neighbors.. probably the japs will do as OTL.

Besides the christian prosecution started in 1590, if they didnt exiled to Hokkaido till then, they will not exile them (the mayor prosecutions lasted until 1632).

And well, if the first Japanese settlement is established in 1645, probably a few years later can begin the first approach to guns (early muskets, some katanas), and the japs will see the caribous and musk oxes..

Two points:
a) Northern Honshu was actually on of the last official strongholds of early Japanese Catholic Christianity (Sendai in particular IIRC). While I agree that exiling the Kirishitan to Ezo is not likely, a presence is not impossible.
b) A dawning local Kamchatkan agricultural civilization (fairly Thule-influenced, but not of Thule stock in itself) is taking off right while the Japanese are sniffing around; it would sit right in between the Japanese and the Thule proper. Plenty of room for complex interaction here.

As for the Europeans in the area, I can see the Dutch and, to a lesser extent, the Spanish vaguely interested in what's going on up north, probably enough to send some exploring expeditions; on the other hand, there's not much the Europeans can get in that area that isn't more cheaply available on alternative routes: North Atlantic for the Dutch (both in the Barents Sea and around Northeastern North America) and Northwest Pacific for the Spanish (from Mexico or maybe California).
I can see the European non-Russian exploration and trade into the North Pacific anticipated significantly, although probably the Matsumae (and arguably the Shoguns) will be noticeably unhappy about it and probably will have have such a postion to hinder these attempts significantly.
OTOH, I think that early seventeenth century Russia ITTL should be explored better: there's plenty of possibilities for significant changes in its course with the given premises. Let's note that IOTL the Russians did not reach the Pacific coast of Siberia before 1638; I suoppose that a delay of some years is in the cards ITTL. The far North of Siberia (and even in the extreme fringes of Northeastern European Russia) will be both more attractive and more problematic to Moscow from relatively early on, with changes being noticeable probably from 1600 onwards (even much earlier in the Western parts of European Arctic, as discussed, thanks to the early effects of the roseroot trade and cultivation in Scandinavia).
 
The Japanese might also try dumping some of their Christian population there, since they were trying to get rid of that as well.
The Tokugawa government is more likely to just kill Christian rebels (as happened in OTL). I suppose it's possible that Christians might flee to Hokkaido and lands north, maybe if the Matsumae form closer ties with the Dutch or Portuguese as sources of guns? Maybe put together some kind of underground railroad for the Crypto-Christians?

And ice, assuming that somebody on either the Thule or Japanese side knows how to insulate it;
That could really work as a commodity for the elite. It would be a good way to open the doors for roseroot.


One difference between how the Japanese will interact with the Thule as opposed to any Western interaction is that the religious gap is nowhere near as large.
Yes and no. Shinto looks a lot like Thule animism, but I don't think Shinto kamanushi would have much respect for the kami of foreigners. Not to mention the political difficulties associated with getting permission from the Shogun to proselytize on behalf of the Emperor (the head of Shinto organization). At another time, Buddhist organizations might be interested in expanding contact with the Thule, but post-Tokugawa, they aren't in position to do anything but obey orders. The Edo Bakufu was not tolerant of competitors.
 
By the way, would the Matsumae reach as far as the Northwest *Tlingit areas eventually? IOTL in the 18th century there seems to have been indirect trade trade with East Asia of sorts...
Would cattails grow well in the Pacific Siberian islands and coasts, or in Hokkaido? (I suppose so).
I can see at least a partial transfer of agriculture to the Ainu and the Japanese themselves. OTOH, the Japanese are already growing potatoes, that should do well in the Kurils, Kamchatka, Southern Alaska and BC...
 
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