Lands of Ice and Mice: An Alternate History of the Thule

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The Sandman

Banned
The only other places I can see the Thule ending up are Svalbard, Jan Mayen and Franz Josef Land. Maybe not in any sizable numbers at first, but seasonal whaling in order to send oil back home, eventually followed by a more permanent presence, seems possible.

Of course, Svalbard also has coal, which would be of great interest to the firewood-starved Thule if they discover how to use it.

Now, the other thing I wonder is if any Thule shaman would try to follow the Norse back to that homeland they presumably mentioned at least once or twice before they assimilated or died. If nothing else, just to see what sort of land produced these weird pale people. The Iceland-Greenland route will definitely be a major thing once full-blown European contact starts, which should make Iceland more important than it was for most of OTL history (admittedly, this probably isn't hard to do).

Is there any possibility that the coming rise of Thule polities will provoke a similar degree of state-building or at least the precursors to such in the Cree and other tribes to the south? In the sense of a military league at first, to resist what will probably be a new wave of Thule invasion (I'm assuming that the sort of organized military forces a Thule state could bring to bear would at least temporarily accelerate the ongoing push south), but eventually taking on some other state-like characteristics?
 
The only other places I can see the Thule ending up are Svalbard, Jan Mayen and Franz Josef Land. Maybe not in any sizable numbers at first, but seasonal whaling in order to send oil back home, eventually followed by a more permanent presence, seems possible.

The Thule are not deep water sailors. So it's tricky. I think that there's some possibility of Thule expansion/colonization of Iceland, Svalbard, Franz Josef Land etc. But not prior to European contact. Following European contact, there may be European assisted or directed colonization efforts - basically similar to the way the East Indians ended up in Guyana or South Africa.

Of course, Svalbard also has coal, which would be of great interest to the firewood-starved Thule if they discover how to use it.

Indeed. A point of interest. It's worth noting that Svalbard was not actually claimed by any European power until the 20th century. Before that, it was pretty much open territory, with British, Dutch, French, Russian, Danish, Norwegian and even American involvement - usually just summer camps, but a few staying over winters, mostly for whaling or hunting walrus.

Easy enough to imagine a Thule group booking passage out there, or being aided by a European power to establish an agricultural community to support the whaling operations.

Now, the other thing I wonder is if any Thule shaman would try to follow the Norse back to that homeland they presumably mentioned at least once or twice before they assimilated or died.

At least one European ship put in while Grandfather was there. No such visit is formally recorded in OTL, but there are some Inuit stories and legends suggesting a visit or two.

If nothing else, just to see what sort of land produced these weird pale people. The Iceland-Greenland route will definitely be a major thing once full-blown European contact starts, which should make Iceland more important than it was for most of OTL history (admittedly, this probably isn't hard to do).

Quite likely. Both Denmark/Norway might have a little more oomph.

Is there any possibility that the coming rise of Thule polities will provoke a similar degree of state-building or at least the precursors to such in the Cree and other tribes to the south? In the sense of a military league at first, to resist what will probably be a new wave of Thule invasion (I'm assuming that the sort of organized military forces a Thule state could bring to bear would at least temporarily accelerate the ongoing push south), but eventually taking on some other state-like characteristics?

I honestly doubt it. There doesn't seem to be nearly enough time, and the southern subsistence economies strike me as too different and too stable to really justify that kind of assertion.

The fact that there may be an emerging civilization next door doesn't mean that it gets adopted. There are climactic barriers, seasonal and biological barriers, cultural and economic issues.

Now, if its open ended, that might be a different story. With five hundred years or a thousand years, then possibly yes.

As it is, we're within a hundred years or so of the epidemics that will devastate the new world.
 

The Sandman

Banned
The Thule are not deep water sailors. So it's tricky. I think that there's some possibility of Thule expansion/colonization of Iceland, Svalbard, Franz Josef Land etc. But not prior to European contact. Following European contact, there may be European assisted or directed colonization efforts - basically similar to the way the East Indians ended up in Guyana or South Africa.

Ah, there's the thing: best as I can tell, the three islands/archipelagos I mentioned are all completely ice-locked in winter. The Thule don't have to sail to them at all. It's why I thought of them, along with the lack of any local population to disagree with a colonization attempt.


I honestly doubt it. There doesn't seem to be nearly enough time, and the southern subsistence economies strike me as too different and too stable to really justify that kind of assertion.

The fact that there may be an emerging civilization next door doesn't mean that it gets adopted. There are climactic barriers, seasonal and biological barriers, cultural and economic issues.

Now that seems interesting to me. I'm not proposing that the Cree et al adopt the same structure as the Thule, more that they start operating at a level of political complexity beyond individual communities. It seems a logical consequence of any emerging Thule polity's ability to muster an army from multiple settlements when it decides it's time to attack the southerners; faced with a larger Thule force than can possibly be repelled by any lone agricultural community, the tribes will have the option of either allying with each other or being crushed and driven further south in detail.

Now, if its open ended, that might be a different story. With five hundred years or a thousand years, then possibly yes.

As it is, we're within a hundred years or so of the epidemics that will devastate the new world.

Yeah, that's going to be unpleasant.

There might be one additional upside for the Thule, besides the neighbors being hurt even worse: they could probably start replacing traditional sources of copper and so forth in the southern trade networks, since they're going to retain some societal cohesion and be hit much later.

On the downside, somebody might get the bright idea of selling slaves to the Thule once the plagues hit and they start suffering labor shortages. So either enslaving Native Americans is going to be a thing for longer, or Africans are going to be shipped into the absolute worst possible environment for people born in and adapted to the tropics. Not enjoyable for anybody, except maybe the slave traders (the ones who don't lose ships to the ice, at least).
 
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Ah, there's the thing: best as I can tell, the three islands/archipelagos I mentioned are all completely ice-locked in winter. The Thule don't have to sail to them at all. It's why I thought of them, along with the lack of any local population to disagree with a colonization attempt.

Well, these Islands have arctic foxes and polar bears, and they got out there by crossing the ice.

But its about 500 miles or so across some very scary and difficult ice floes. Unless you know exactly where it is or where you're going.... you're as likely to die on the ice as anywhere else.

In terms of Foxes, I've always thought of that as representing thousands of Dead Arctic foxes starving to death on ice floes, or trapped on shrinking bits of sea ice to drown as spring warms up, for every one that made it to Svalbard or Jan Mayen.

I don't know that any birds migrate or move back and forth between Svalbard and Greenland. If so, its possible that some sufficiently clever bastard might guess that there's land over that way and decide to take the trip.

A dog sled fully supplied and going full tilt might make the trip in five to ten days. But sea currents will pile up sea ice into jagged hills and short lived mountains. So it might be more difficult than that.

I think its barely possible. More likely, it happens during the era of European contact, when the idea of other lands is more firmly rooted, and perhaps some shaky geographical knowledge starts to circulate. Again, though, better odds of paying passage.

It could happen several ways. Perhaps Thule are recruited as whalers by Europeans. They end up at Whaling stations on Svalbard. They look around, decide that its an empty land where you could make a living with Musk Ox and Caribou, and it goes from there.

Or Europeans decide to plant some Thule there as a permanent settlement to support Whalers.

Or an ambitious Thule Shaman or Chieftain hears about the place, decides to set up a kingdom.

Or exiles.....

Iceland might be a better bet for direct colonization by travel across the ice. The Thule know its there, they might have some vague idea of how far away it is. It's large enough that they might actually have a decent shot of finding it.

In this scenario, Thule shamans lead a band over, and they colonize some empty corner of Iceland, eventually leading to the Island divided.

Under those circumstances, you would definitely get clearer interchange with the Norse having real opportunities to adopt thule crops and domestic animals.


I honestly doubt it. There doesn't seem to be nearly enough time, and the southern subsistence economies strike me as too different and too stable to really justify that kind of assertion.

The fact that there may be an emerging civilization next door doesn't mean that it gets adopted. There are climactic barriers, seasonal and biological barriers, cultural and economic issues.

Now that seems interesting to me. I'm not proposing that the Cree et al adopt the same structure as the Thule, more that they start operating at a level of political complexity beyond individual communities. It seems a logical consequence of any emerging Thule polity's ability to muster an army from multiple settlements when it decides it's time to attack the southerners; faced with a larger Thule force than can possibly be repelled by any lone agricultural community, the tribes will have the option of either allying with each other or being crushed and driven further south in detail.

I see where you're going. Yes. There's going to have to be more political sophistication and interaction between Cree communities, and more coordination. If for no other reason than that Cree have been driven south, so they end up sitting on each others laps.

Interesting to examine. The details are tricky. They're not able to muster enough to fight the Thule effectively to take back territory.

On the other hand, they're able to stop expansion.

And there is some tradition of large communal gatherings - seasonal sturgeon harvests for instance, or fish runs, where basically there's a huge food resource concentrating in an area.



On the downside, somebody might get the bright idea of selling slaves to the Thule once the plagues hit and they start suffering labor shortages. So either enslaving Native Americans is going to be a thing for longer, or Africans are going to be shipped into the absolute worst possible environment for people born in and adapted to the tropics. Not enjoyable for anybody, except maybe the slave traders (the ones who don't lose ships to the ice, at least).

Interesting and chilling.
 
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On a slightly less horrific, though sadly perhaps not unrelated, topic, I've shared my excitement at the idea that the Thule might eventually become travelers and even enable conduction of major trade over the Arctic centuries earlier than air travel allowed it. Obviously, this isn't actually maritime, since no ships but heavy icebreakers can find a path, and so I'm talking about sledges over ice. Which has its own problems, the caravans had better be sure the ice will be firm enough to carry them all the way. Since we are now in the Little Ice Age at this point in the timeline and barring butterflies causing an earlier modern thaw, we'll stay that way well into the 19th century, the winter ice pack is more reliably firm than it would be today.

I've pondered the problem of Arctic navigation before (or Antarctic, the topic comes up in Green Antarctica too, but the Ts'alal would do their traveling in summer for the most part, over roads; navigation is a matter of being familiar with the territory (and the locals granting passage!)). I wonder how early Thule might acquire magnetic compasses from European explorers and traders, and even develop the ability to make lodestones of their own.

For the Thule, the magnetic compass is not a device to locate "north" for the most part. They happen to live in the region where the North Magnetic Pole is wandering, here's a link to an interesting plot of recorded and extrapolated locations and paths of the North Magnetic Pole, defined as the Dip Pole, where a compass, held sideways, would point straight down.

As we can see there, for trips across winter ice to places like Svalbard, the "north" magnetic pole is more of a "west" pole. This comes in quite handy actually, assuming there are a fair number of instances of clear skies on the icecap in winter, and that the darkness of the polar winter night is deep enough to see Polaris. I don't know if either of these cases hold, unfortunately!:eek: But assuming they can see Polaris fairly well much of the time, they will always know their latitude pretty well. Knowing where the Dip Pole is in their lifetimes, they can infer from the more or less westward pointing compass what radius on a map centered on the Magnetic Pole they are on by comparing the angles, to compass "north" and stellar north, and thus pretty well what longitude they must be at.

Thus, at any rate after locations they might wish to reach over the sea ice are known, they can judge how well they are keeping to a path directly to it. As DValdron pointed out, they won't find a nice smooth surface to travel on, and unlike actual terrain, the ice rills and valleys will vary from week to week. So every expedition is a bit of an adventure in casting about for decent paths. But with a magnetic compass and more or less up to date knowledge of the current location of the Pole, they can at least figure out pretty well where they have gotten to.

I have to agree with DValdron that they are highly unlikely to simply strike out across the ice looking for new worlds to conquer.

Though eventually, if Thule expeditions over the ice cap become a thing they have some experience with, they might develop confidence in the idea that the Arctic Ocean is mostly bounded by land, and as long as they can avoid dumping themselves in the middle of the North Atlantic, they can be sure that if they press on and avoid going in circles, they will come to land eventually.

The question is, can they keep their dogs fed that long, and will they first run into a break in the ice?

I was enchanted by the idea of sail sledges but many months ago when I tried to research the idea, I got pretty discouraged. I don't think sails can reliably produce the kinds of hauling forces needed to move over uneven ice. They might be a help in some stretches, but probably not enough or often enough to justify an investment in them. It's dogs pulling them, unless other draft animals can do the job, and DValdron has made an excellent case for dogs actually being probably the best animals for the job anyway. (Until we get to the machine age and steam engines and the like, but that's a good many centuries away now: I expect to get into enough trouble just for suggesting Thule compasses!)

I'd think if they do take to sledge caravans to hauling goods, they'd design the sledges to double as boats as well, in case they do come across a stretch of melted ice unexpectedly.
 
This is so cool!!!

http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-google-maps-distance-calculator.htm

This is a distance calculator. It can calculate the distance in miles of kilometers for between any two points on the map. Even better it can calculate the distance between multiple points on the map.

Some bottom lines:

Iceland is about 350 kilometers (215 miles) north to south. It's also about 350 kilometers (215 miles) from Greenland at the closest point, although that obviously increases, depending on where you start from.

Iceland would be the only inhabited land that the Thule might reach. During the little ice age, the population had fallen to about 20,000, most of which would be in the southwest. It has a total area of 103,000 km2 (40,000 sq mi), 63% of the territory is tundra, 14% is lakes and glaciers, and 23% is vegetated. It's warmer than other arctic and sub-arctic lands for being in the gulf stream, the climate is similar to Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. Plant life consists of grasslands with some stands of northern birch forests. The only native animal is the Arctic Fox and occasional Polar Bear. Norwegian introduced species have included sheep, goats, horses, cattle and pigs. Originally the island was covered by forests, but deforestation and overgrazing wrecked a lot of it. A Thule colony might well survive and thrive remote and undiscovered.

Svalbard is about 450 kilometers (280 miles) north to south. Its about 450 kilometers (280 miles) from Greenland at the closest jump, although that increases rapidly.

Svalbard is a group of islands, the largest of which is Spitsbergen (don't laugh), the total land area is 61,022 km2 (23,561 sq mi). Glaviers cover 36,502 km2 (14,094 sq mi) or 60% of Svalbard; 30% is barren rock while 10% is vegetated. The climate of Svalbard is dominated by its high latitude, with the average summer temperature at 4 °C (39 °F) to 6 °C (43 °F) and January averages at −16 °C (3 °F) to −12 °C (10 °F). The North Atlantic Current moderates Svalbard's temperatures, giving it up to 20 °C (36 °F) higher winter temperature than similar latitudes in Russia and Canada. The surrounding waters are open and navigable most of the year, but would likely have been ice-locked in winters during the little ice age. The interior fjord areas and valleys, sheltered by the mountains, have larger temperature differences than the coast, giving about 2 °C (4 °F) warmer summer temperatures and 3 °C (5 °F) colder winter temperatures. The temperature difference between south and north is typically 5 °C (9 °F) in winter and about 3 °C (5 °F) in summer. The midnight sun lasts, depending on location 99 to 141 days and polar night 84 to 128 days. Svalbard supports low middle and high arctic vegetation, as well as reindeer, polar bear, and arctic fox. Efforts to introduce Musk Ox and Arctic hare in recent times failed. Sea mammals include whales, walrus, seals and dophin. Thule have done more with less.

Now, add it up, Greenland from top to bottom, reasonable jumping off points going east, is about 2400 kilometers (1500 miles) north to south.

On the other side Svalbard and Iceland are 800 kilometers (500 miles) together, north to south. So, conceivably, expeditions leaving Greenland, heading more or less due east, have about 1/3 chance of ending up at either Iceland or Svalbard, in a journey of 400 to 800 kilometers.

Of course, that's a two thirds chance of dying on ice floes. But really, its not bad at all. There's lots of early peoples who would have found those odds pretty good.

Now, given the highest peaks, its likely that we might see these lands from as far as 100 kilometers away. So add 200 kilometers north and south of each. And add 200 kilometers around Jan Mayen Island between them. That's a range of 1400 kilometers. Odds are better than 50% that striking east from Greenland would bring you close enough to one of the three Islands to allow you to spot some land and get your butt over there.

Even half assed navigation/location skills and a vague idea of location could change those odds dramatically in favour of the explorer.

So, it seems at least halfway feasible.
 
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Here's a visual aid - which locates the key Arctic islands - Svalbard, Iceland, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemyla, Svernaya Zemyla, New Siberian and Wrangel (as well as Greenland and the Canadian archipelago).

Arctic_Islands.png
 
Three Easy Hops

From Svalbard to Franz Josef

From Svalbard to Franz Josef land its about 350 kilometers (215 miles) at closest. But there's a relatively small Island a hundred kilometers out, so the jump would only be about 200 kilometers (140 miles).

That's a lot easier than the jump from Greenland to Svalbard, and in a league with the trip to Iceland. Given the intervening Island as a way station, its actually easier even than the Iceland trip.

In other words, this seems very doable.

Franz Josef is pretty inhospitable. It consists of 191 islands totalling 16,134 km2 (6,229 sq mi). Its northernmost Islands are closer to the pole than any other land, except Greenland and Ellesmere. In January the normal daily low is 15 °C (5 °F) and the high is 10.5 °C (13.1 °F). In July the normal daily low is 0 °C (32 °F) and daily high is 2.2 °C (36 °F). Precipitation is common year round, but is most common during the transition seasons of late spring and autumn. Fog is very common in the late summer. Because the islands are relatively small, temperature is moderated by the Arctic sea, leaving it colder in summers and warmer in winters. Native wildlife consists mostly of arctic fox, polar bear, walrus, seals and beluga whales. There may be reasonable prospects for Thule micro-climate engineering, either for agriculture or pastoralism. Caribou, at least should do well, and in fact the islands were inhabited by Caribou during the medieval warm period. It might be too wet for Musk Ox, but they should manage. Ptarmigan might do well, arctic hare might be too much for the fragile ecosystem. You'd probably see primarily a hunter/gatherer and herder/horticulture community, with a lot of reliance on sea bounty.

Interestingly, going south from Svalbard, you'd hit the Northern tip of Norway in about 660 kilometers (425 miles). There seems to be a small island between them, 250 kilometers (160 miles) south of Svalbard, so that might be a stopping off point, so the clear run would only be 410 kilometers (265 miles).

Just noticing, that's all. Let's look at the next Island hop.


From Franz Josef Land to Novaya Zemyla

Now, from the nearest points on Franz Josef land, its about 380 kilometers (240 miles) due south to the most northern part of Novaya Zemyla.

Again, that's pretty much the same scale as the jump from Greenland to Iceland, or the jump from Svalbard to Franz Josef (sans intervening Island), and less than the jump from Greenland to Svalbard.

Novaya Zemlya consists of two major islands separated by a narrow strait, and a handful of tiny islands. The total area is about 90,650 square kilometers (35,000 sq mi). The islands are the northern extension of the Ural Mountains, and are quite rocky, the tallest mountain on the islands is about 5000 feet. The southern island is mostly Arctic tundra, in OTL, the southern island supported reindeer herding by the Nenets, as well as hunting, fishing and trapping. The northern island has numerous glaciers, the largest of which covers 40% of its area.


From Franz Josef Land to Severnaya Zemyla

From the easternmost point of Franz Josef, its only about 480 kilometers (300 miles) to Svernaya Zemyla. But guess what, there's a largish island right in the middle between the two of them. So its only a straight run of about 240 kilometers (150 miles) each way.

It's also about 600 kilometers (380 miles) from the northern tip of Novaya Zemyla to the nearest Islands of Svernaya Zemyla. But given that northern Novaya Zemyla is mostly glacier, and the distance is greater, its likely that the migration route in Novaya Zemyla will orient south.

So, its Franz Josef to Svernaya as the most likely jump.

Svernaya Zemyla consists of four major islands and around 70 smaller islands, covering a total area of about 37,000 km2 (14,300 sq mi). Almost always icebound, it wasn't discovered until the early 20th century. It is about 50% covered by Glaciers. Severnaya Zemlya is consistently cold and dry, with mean annual precipitation of about 420 mm (16.5 in), average temperature ranges from 29 °C ( 20.2 °F) in February to 0.5 °C (31.1 °F) in July. Cyclones are most common in September and October, which see 30% of annual precipitation. Snowfall in summer is common as temperatures hover around 0 °C (32 °F), although higher temperatures occur when warm air masses move north from Siberia. The sky is generally overcast. The Svernaya Zemyla archipelago hosts lemmings, arctic fox, polar bear, reindeer and a variety of birds. It's classified as a polar desert, somewhat like the Canadian western arctic archipelago.
 
Can We Get There Over the Winter Sea Ice?

What all this seems to show is that most of the significant Arctic islands east of Greenland are all accessible by hops of only a few hundred miles at most.

So, could they get there over ice?

Well, let's go and take a look at our friends Michael R. Goe and Robert E. McDowell and their 'Animal Traction: Guidelines for Utilization.'

According to them, Reindeer/Caribou can easily travel 50 to 75 kilometers a day (30 to 45 miles). But pulling a sled, or with a pack, its more realistic at 25 to 40 kilometers a day (15 to 25 miles).

Sled dogs are capable of rapid transport can travel 80 to 95 kilometers a day (50 to 60 miles), although more normal distances covered run 30 to 40 kilometers a day (18 to 25 miles) (I'm rounding off like crazy, if you notice).

What this means is that assuming a 40 km a day (25 mpd) rate for dog or caribou sleds, and rounding off, a Thule caravan moving at a normal pace would be able to leapfrog with spells of roughly 10 days, give or take, across open ice. Allow extra time for getting around ice piles, dodging open water, figure about two weeks in all.

That seems doable. Particularly if our hypothetical sea-Thule have some broad idea of where they're going and roughly how long its going to take. Dogs, men and caribou will probably be hungry by the time they reach the next land. But they could make it.

Assuming that animals are moving at top speed and all other conditions are perfect, dogs or caribou might make the trip in five days.

The trick would be to know those islands are there. What are the chances?
Well, we can rule out GPS, magic, telepathy or any special sensory powers that the Thule might have.

What's left? There's some possibilities....
 
Thule by Sea

My objection is that historically, the Thule and Inuit didn't seem like deep water types. The reached Greenland, Siberia, Labrador and the islands of the Canadian Archipelago by sea, but the longest that they would have had to cross at any one point would be 40 to 80 kilometers (25 to 50 miles).

But there is this little quote from Wikipedia:

There is controversial evidence to suggest early trans-atlantic kayak journeys from Labrador or Greenland to Scotland by Inuit paddlers. Indeed at the end of the 17th century there were at least three separate kayaks preserved in Scotland. One kayak, with associated equipment, is preserved in Aberdeen's Marischal Museum. It was found, with dying occupant, on a nearby shore. Some suggest the occupants were escaped Inuit from European ships, Inuit storm-driven from Greenland, or from a European source. Many suggest Inuit and their kayaks to be the origin of the Celtic Finnman, or Selkie, legends.

Okay, so maybe in OTL some Inuit did get into deep water. I think mostly, ....they died.

Certainly the ones that made it to Scotland were on a one way trip.

It's possible that some Inuit or Thule may have made it out to deep waters and had enough savvy to get back home. But I don't have a sense it was a trip any of them wanted to take.

Still, this seems to demonstrate that Thule kayaks at least were resilient enough to survive and keep their occupants alive in deep sea.

The Thule Umiaks, the largest skin boats, 30 to 60 feet long and five to ten feet wide (average seems to have been on the smaller side), and capable of carrying thirty or more people seem to have been used mainly for coastal travel, they were often called 'women's boats.'

Wikipedia notes that they were mostly paddled, though there's a reference to use of sails made from seal intestines. I have no idea if the Inuit/Thule used sails prior to European contact. But then again, sails might have been a cultural transfer from the Norse, so nothing really stands on it either way.

It does appear, however, that they were used (or equivalently large boats were used) to hunt bowhead whales.

Certainly there was a historical tradition of whale hunting among the Thule and Inuit. Traditionally, whales were hunted by shooting them with arrows and harpoons tied to 'drogues'. Drogues were inflated sealskins or float bladders. Basically, you'd fire them, use them to tire out the whale and keep forcing it to surface, and keep spearing it until it died.

As I understand it, most serious whaling was along the Pacific coast. But conceivably, eastern whaling could have occurred.

So, hypothetically, lets say that the Thule along the Greenland east coast, particularly in the more inhospitable northern areas, are existing on a combination of reindeer and musk ox herding, some hunting and gathering, and micro-climate agriculture in some areas.

The area is such that there's an uneasy relationship between the three groups and displacement wars keep breaking out as climate improves or worsens. To supplement local economies, the coastal Thule hunt bowhead whales when they're in season. Basically, taking down a whale is a good way to hedge your bets against a bad season, and perhaps a good way to build links and bonds within and between rival communities and avoid warfare.

Since Greenland is anchoring the Ellesmere trading network with Norse and Norse knock off Iron, woolens and textiles and soapstone, its possible that bowhead whale products (most likely balleen) might enter the trading network, driving demand.

Which would mean increased or increasing Bowhead hunting activity.

Now, let's say that the Bowheads recognize hunting activity, and respond with avoidance tactics, including moving away from boats and moving further out to sea, you could see the Greenland Thule being drawn further and further out to sea, and consequently developing some reasonable deep seafaring and navigation skills.

Dragging a full grown whale back would involve some pretty mean aboriginal seafaring skills. Dead whales float, maybe they'd stick sails in the thing. Who knows. I'm just thinking out loud here.

So what happens next?

Boids.

I mean Birds.
 
Are You Still With Me So Far?

All these arctic Islands, Iceland, Svalbard, the Franz Josefs, Novaya, Severnya are host to large colonies of sea birds and migratory birds.

So during open water season, we'd see birds coming from and going to these islands.

Now, I don't know what the average ranges of these birds are. But I would assume that since they colonized all of these islands, that they can go quite a distance out and that you'd see them in open water.

After a while, you might start to notice them and notice that come evening, they all seemed to be heading in the same directions. You might start to wonder where they've been going. You might start to think that there might be land over that way.

Or maybe you just get interested and want to see where the birds are going, in hopes that it will lead you to humpbacks or bowheads or something.

And on occasion, given bad seas, bad weather, any number of freak events, you might figure that striking out after the birds might be the best way of surviving.

It wouldn't just be birds. Most of these archipelagos contain mountains that can get fairly high. Svalbard, Novaya Zemyla and Svernaya Zemyla all record high points of in excess of 5000 feet. Franz Josef's highest point is about 2500 feet.

That means you can see them from far off. How far? A person of average height can see about 3 kilometers at sea level. A person 12 meters up can see 13 kilometers. Visibility from the top of the Empire State building is about 130 kilometers How far off can you see an Island with a 5000 foot tall mountain?

The math is frankly beyond me, I'm lazy. If anyone's interested, here's a calculator:

http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/GF/explain/atmos_refr/altitudes.html

My completely uneducated guess is that within 100 to 200 kilometers, odds are that you might see it on the horizon.

It's also likely that on very clear arctic days, with low hanging clouds of ice crystals and good refraction, you could see reflections in the sky in the directions of islands. Such sky reflections were often seen by arctic explorers. I don't know if it lead to any discoveries, but the phenomenon was well documented.

So what this means is that seagoing Thule wouldn't necessarily have to be going right at the target. They might only need to come within a couple of hundred kilometers to realize that there's some kind of land out there, and have a decent idea of where to go.

So it's likely that at least the nearest Island groups - Svalbard and Iceland would be found by the Greenland East Coast Thule. Both Svalbard and Iceland are good whaling islands, and were known in OTL as sites from which whaling efforts took place.

The Thule whalers would be seeing these Islands during the summers, during their most hospitable phases. They might even be marooned there for spells, getting to know the lands, living off of birds, fish, sea mammals, etc. They'd certainly be in a position to assess the possibilities of the lands in terms of supporting herd animals or agricultural plants and microlivestock.

So, over time, there'd be enough accumulated knowledge and awareness of the locations and potential of Svalbard and Iceland that you might get winter or summer colonization efforts.

Summer colonization would be only by boat, obviously, and would involve at best some of the key crops and perhaps some microlivestock.

A winter expedition over the ice would allow dogs, musk ox, caribou and a wide range of supplies and artifacts, as well as more likelihood of women and children.

Why colonize at all? Displacement wars. The East coast of Greenland is full of competing lifestyles or subcultures, competing within themselves - Sheep herders vs Caribou herders vs Musk Ox herders, different agricultural groups, different hunter gatherers, different traders etc., and between groups.

For a group on the losing side, the prospect of retreat to a vast uninhabited Island might well be quite attractive.

Now, let's set Iceland aside for a second, and concentrate on the mechanics of expansion from Svalbard to the rest of the arctic.

Past Svalbard, I don't have much for whaling activity. Belugas are found around Franz Josef land, but I don't think its a site from which Bowheads are hunted. The range of Bowhead whales do include the waters around Franz Josef Land and the Eastern coastal regions of Novaya Zemyla. So its possible that Svalbard whale killing expeditions might be drawn out to the point at which seabirds might indicate the presence of lands further on.

In my view, its not likely that deep sea whaling would extend much further than Svalbard. The Svalbard Thule population would at best be a fraction of the Greenland East Coast population, and it wouldn't be hooked into the Ellesmere trading network. So whaling around Svalbard would probably be lower intensity, which means less likely to get drawn out further into deep sea.

But then again, there might be a couple of other factors encouraging discovery of Franz Josef.

First, there's that intervening island, which makes Franz Josef two jumps, one of 100 kilometers, the second of 200 kilometers. That's a couple of short jumps. At those ranges, you could probably guess at the existence of the intervening Island not too far beyond Svalbard's waters. And once you got there and were sailing around there, you could probably guess at a larger archipelago somewhat further on.

Why go there? Overpopulation or political or social stress on Svalbard. Useful area on Svalbard is only about 6,000 square miles. It might fill up fast. Even if Thule are able to maximize territory, literally grow or extend soil and make extensive use of sea resources.... there might be pressure to see what else is out there.

Once it is identified and explored during the summer (it would suck to try exploring in the winter - all you'd find would be ice, snow and darkness. Summer's the best time to look these places over), Franz Josef could seem very attractive for colonization. It would be a land potentially ripe for caribou, teeming with birds and sea mammals, even possessing some agricultural potential. It's likely that we'd see colonization of Franz Josef, sooner rather than later.

From there, we have the leaps from Franz Josef to Novaya and Severnaya Zemyla's. They won't be drawn by whaling, I don't think that there's a need for whaling given the local sea mammal populations, and the potential of the land.

Again, though, I'll note that Bowhead whales do range to the south as far as Novaya Zemyla's eastern coasts. The Franz Josef islands are very close to permanent polar ice, if they do hunt whales, they'll head south, which might lead them to Novaya Zemyla. Or at least, lead them to regions of seabirds heading that way.

Svernaya Zemyla would be the furthest. There are intervening islands. It's possible that little more than population pressure, dumb luck, and perhaps an emerging faith based on past lore that there are more lands and islands out there, might lead to explorers getting far enough out to follow seabirds back to it.

Severnaya Zemyla is ice locked most times. Not necessarily a fatal flaw denying access to the Thule. Expansion this time would probably be in part based on experience and lore of past colonizations.
 
You know what? After all this effort to work it out, I may as well let it in. So be it.

It's canon. We will officially add the Thule Archipelago Subculture.

***************

So when does this all happen?

Thule left Alaska around 950 AD. The had reached the Coppermine area by 1000. By about 1050 they'd penetrated as far as Baffin Island. By 1100 to Ellesmere Island. First entry into Greenland is only about 1150. Assume complete displacement of the Dorset by about 1200 to 1250.

The Thule Agricultural revolution begins around 1200 to 1250. It takes around a hundred years to consolidate its techniques and spread to its outer reaches - Ellesmere. It's only around 1350 that the Agricultural package that is tailored to the harsh conditions of Ellesmere crosses into Greenland and begins to make its way down. Let's assume 50 to 100 years to become firmly established in Greenland. 1433-35 is the beginning of the Norse Interchange.

Let's assume that Bowhead Whale hunting begins around 1425, and starts to move out into deeper waters and a competent deep sea tradition evolves around 1465. In the intervening period, population grows, hunting experience increases, skills build, and Bowhead balleen becomes part of the Ellesmere network.

1480, give or take a few years, Iceland and Svalbard are discovered, become part of Thule lore and knowledge traditions.

1500 Svalbard is colonized from Greenland. 1515 the first Thule colony is established on Iceland also from Greenland.

1530 is the date of discovery of Franz Josef by Svalbard Thule. 1550 is the colonization of Franz Josef Land from Svalbard.

1570 is the date of discovery of Novaya Zemyla, from Franz Josef. Initial colonization begins almost immediately, but it will be a decade before the Thule have a permanent foothold, by 1580.

1575 is the discovery of Severnaya Zemyla. It's not until 1595 that strive on Franz Josef leads to the colonization of Severnaya.

By this time, the European North West expeditions have reached the Thule heartlands. And European whalers are beginning to encounter Thule whalers.
 
In terms of the salient features of the Sea Thule subculture, most of their heritage has been derived from the East Coast of Greenland, where mature Thule culture has established itself.

In material terms, the Sea Thule have all the key elements of Thule culture. They maintain the classic suite of agricultural plants - notably Roseroot, Sweetvetch and Claytonia, as well as the key secondaries, specifically Bistort, Fireweed, Dwarf Fireweed and Saxifrage.

Unfortunately, on most of the islands, Agriculture is a minor undertaking. Poor weather, overcast skies and low temperatures inhibit growth. In some places, the crop cycle is four years.

There is better luck with microclimate engineering for livestock and microlivestock. Caribou and Musk Ox, Ptarmigan and Arctic Hare are all raised and maintained everywhere. Sheep were introduced, but thrived only on Franz Josef. The weakness of agriculture means that Caribou, Musk Ox and Sheep milk is a part of the diet.

The semi-domesticates are present as well, but more feral and trapped and eaten more frequently.

Dogs are a comparatively larger part of the Sea Thule existence and economy, being much easier to transport, and far more competent on the ice floes. The bounty of sea resources makes it much easier to maintain a relatively larger population of dogs.

The most important part of their world for the Sea Thule, is of course, the sea itself. They exact a lot of protein from the sea in the form of Bowhead whales, Beluga, Walrus, Seals, Dolphins and fish. A secondary source of protein is from birds.

The Sea Thule of the various island groups maintain contact, mostly along the lines of colonization. Thus Novaya and Severnaya are at the ends of the chain - they only occasionally interact with each other, and mostly interact with Franz Josef. Franz Josef interacts with Novaya, Severnaya and Svalbard. Svalbard interacts with Greenland and Franz Josef.

Contacts are highly ceremonial. Occasionally portions of populations move, but this is rare. Formal marriages between archipelagos are common, and it is considered a mark of status to have a wife from beyond the island - this implies kinship and access to resources beyond the local. Gift giving is the common medium of exchange.

Items that move through the Sea Thule trading network are iron and some copper and bronze from Greenland, much sought after and highly valued, as well as soapstone. Traded to Greenland are bowhead balleen and walrus ivory. Between the islands is traded Bowhead baleen, walrus hide and walrus rope, seal skin, whale bladders and intestine, beluga skin and parts, wool and qviat, depending on local needs and shortages.

The central artifact or technology of the Sea Thule, including those of the East coast of Greenland, are the distinctive versions of Umiaks, large skin boats, often sixty feet in length, with kayak outriggers and often carrying float bladders and sealed chambers. Sea Thule Umiaks will feature two or three low square sails as well as being powered by oars. There is a platform at the front of the Umiak, where a captain will sit or stand. The nose of the Umiak is often armoured with wood or layers of heavy leather, to withstand ice without tearing. The Umiak is also reinforced by runners on the exterior underside, and can be dragged over ice by the crew.

In Sea Thule society, the Captains are accorded greater respect than the Shamans, and are often the arbiters of social affairs.

And that's it for the Sea Thule. Iceland, of course, is its own story....
 
You know what? After all this effort to work it out, I may as well let it in. So be it.

It's canon. We will officially add the Thule Archipelago Subculture.

I like it. Sort of Cold Polynesians.

Also:
Willem Barentsz: I claim this land in the name of---
Thule: 'Allo! Who is zis?
Barentsz: Damnit! Not you people again. I don't suppose you'd like some civilization.
Thule: No thanks, we've already got one!
Barentsz: What? Are you sure?
Thule: Oh yes, it's verra nice-a!

And now for something completely different:
Thule contact with Iceland from the 1480s? So there are about a hundred years between that and "real contact" with Frobisher in 1576. Does anything significant happen in that time?

I would argue yes and yes. Because of this: http://iceland.vefur.is/iceland_history/history.htm

Plague in Iceland in 1400
Christopher Columbus's visit in 1477 (although it's possible he'll just say the Thule are Siberians or Mongols or something.)
English contact in the 1500s (perhaps Frobisher meets an alt-Squanto who speaks the language)

Also, in our post-contact world, in 1757 there's a mass die-off on Iceland, and then again after a volcanic eruption in 1783. This might be a good place to start Thule slavery: a humanitarian effort to save Icelanders by relocating them on Greenland and the Archipelago, where of course they have to work to defray the cost of their transport. The debt is passed to their children.
 
I
The Sea Thule of the various island groups maintain contact, mostly along the lines of colonization. Thus Novaya and Severnaya are at the ends of the chain - they only occasionally interact with each other, and mostly interact with Franz Josef. Franz Josef interacts with Novaya, Severnaya and Svalbard. Svalbard interacts with Greenland and Franz Josef.
Is there any sort of contact with the Siberian Thule? Resupply settlements along the Laptev coast? Some extra whale-blubber might help Our Boys in Fur as they fight with the Chukchi.

And that's it for the Sea Thule. Iceland, of course, is its own story....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qG9_qnPZDvo
Rubbing my hands in anticipatory glee.
 
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