Suppose that King Sebastian's crusade against Morocco is successful, due to the army of Abd Al-Malik being stricken with plague, dysentery, or whatever other depressingly common and debilitating diseases armies often contracted. Portugal extracts further concessions from Morocco, and restores its preferred candidate to the Moroccan throne, all without the Spanish volunteers that never showed up as agreed.
Sebastian survives the war unscathed, but at one point or another gets endangered, driving the point home that the Kingdom needs an heir. Other than a Hapsburg, are there any obvious marriages that present themselves at this point? A marriage alliance that draws Portugal into European wars seems disadvantageous, and its recent victory against Morocco suggests that the country does not need Spain's assistance to maintain and expand the realm. Still, a royal marriage is too good a diplomatic opportunity to dismiss, especially as the King has no need to shore up support by marrying into domestic nobility. Perhaps there are some creative choices here?
Assuming Sebastian does manage to produce an heir, and avoids being drawn into Spanish wars in Europe, Portugal seems likely to prosper tremendously. The Portuguese Empire of trade and plantations seems apt to absorb quite a bit of the gold and silver flowing out of South America, and without being shackled to Spain, the country has the potential to invest in the maintenance and expansion of its economic foundation. More than that, Portuguese trade and shipping might be left unmolested by Dutch and English opportunistic attacks, or at least relatively so compared to OTL. That leaves the possibility of Portugal being capable of maintaining its trade posts in Asia and Africa as a basis for further consolidation of Indian Ocean networks.
The era of Portuguese exploration and expansion doesn't have to be over, after all. Australia is yet to be discovered, and Southern Africa has a great deal more potential that could be exploited on a more permanent basis. Commercial competition with the Dutch would also be all for the better in this hypothetical Portugal, if it means adopting new and better ideas in finance, commercial law, and so on. Even without wanking the Portuguese empire, it seems easy to see it being in a better position going into the 17th century.
But I'm just speculating, and many of you must know better. How does a stable, independent Portugal adapt to the changing times and wars of religion in Europe?
Sebastian survives the war unscathed, but at one point or another gets endangered, driving the point home that the Kingdom needs an heir. Other than a Hapsburg, are there any obvious marriages that present themselves at this point? A marriage alliance that draws Portugal into European wars seems disadvantageous, and its recent victory against Morocco suggests that the country does not need Spain's assistance to maintain and expand the realm. Still, a royal marriage is too good a diplomatic opportunity to dismiss, especially as the King has no need to shore up support by marrying into domestic nobility. Perhaps there are some creative choices here?
Assuming Sebastian does manage to produce an heir, and avoids being drawn into Spanish wars in Europe, Portugal seems likely to prosper tremendously. The Portuguese Empire of trade and plantations seems apt to absorb quite a bit of the gold and silver flowing out of South America, and without being shackled to Spain, the country has the potential to invest in the maintenance and expansion of its economic foundation. More than that, Portuguese trade and shipping might be left unmolested by Dutch and English opportunistic attacks, or at least relatively so compared to OTL. That leaves the possibility of Portugal being capable of maintaining its trade posts in Asia and Africa as a basis for further consolidation of Indian Ocean networks.
The era of Portuguese exploration and expansion doesn't have to be over, after all. Australia is yet to be discovered, and Southern Africa has a great deal more potential that could be exploited on a more permanent basis. Commercial competition with the Dutch would also be all for the better in this hypothetical Portugal, if it means adopting new and better ideas in finance, commercial law, and so on. Even without wanking the Portuguese empire, it seems easy to see it being in a better position going into the 17th century.
But I'm just speculating, and many of you must know better. How does a stable, independent Portugal adapt to the changing times and wars of religion in Europe?
