Canada Wank (YACW)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Why would it? The OTL US acquired French and Spanish territories yet is solidly English-speaking today.

Ah, but that's because we're culturally imperialistic to the point of vigilante lynchings. There are positive inducements to become fluent in English--there are also negative ones, never mind the trouble we have trying to ensconce them in written law.

This Canada on the other hand starts out with the French leg of bilingualism greatly strengthened, both in sheer numbers by the immigration of the refugees from Republican France, then because these refugees included classes of subject (was going to say "citizens," but that would be a misstep considering the sentiments of these former loyal subjects of the Bourbons now taking refuge under the British crown) who are much higher up the social ladder than OTL's inherited habitants, voyageurs, and metís; the merchants and monseigneurs who settle among the old Quebecois raise the esteem of the francophone community in general, and inspire the old settlers to higher ambitions. Thus, once they secure themselves in the first war with the Americans all business in Canada goes forward on a bilingual basis from the get-go.

Or rather trilingual--or really very polylingual, with the third language--the Native American creole formed from many Native languages--melding out of the press of Protectorate business eventually.

So, what's a fourth and fifth regionally dominant language? Spanish being fourth, whatever dialect of German the Bavarian-derived establishment of Tejas favors being a fifth.

Given this Alt-Canada's foundational experience with translating all business back and forth between several languages I am not at all sure that any centrifugal influence is caused merely by the presence of yet more languages. Other clashes that happen to correlate to some particular linguistic group--such as Rio Bravo people (what is the correct term? Rio Bravan? Rio Bravano?) insisting on calling their subsection a "Republic" for instance--might be a much more serious matter leading to secession than the fact that they happen to speak Spanish.

A conceivable strength of a polylingual polity is that within blocks of territory dominated by one linguistic and cultural tradition, you can have settlements that are colonies of some other tradition. Consider that in addition to French and English speaking settlement in Louisiana, Tejas, Rio Bravo, and the California territory acquired at the peace table, there are contingents of Indian (ie South Asian, to distinguish from Native American), Portuguese, and I forget who all else--West Indian this time too? African troops under the Portuguese or Spanish banner? German mercenaries? I recall some Hawaiians came in with the East Indians too...--a whole bunch of distinct ethnic troop types. Heck, the Irish troops probably don't consider themselves just another dialect of English-speakers--with their brand new shiny subkingdom they will definitely hold themselves separate. So you have all these people settling here and there, probably mainly in Louisiana and the new southern regions though the Irish might settle much more in the north.

So there won't be completely solid blocs of any linguistic-cultural composition anywhere, especially bearing in mind that this Alt-Canada is far more respectful of Native American groups than the USA ever was and even better than OTL Canada in this respect, so the native tribes will probably have their territories de facto contracted but still solidly theirs in some bastion, and their people will be mingled scattered in their former ranges but with political protection based on their people's treaties with the Canadian over-authority.

Now this might turn into a very ugly situation indeed, if this greater Canada does break up in an earthquake of linguistic-based nationalism. It's pretty much the same mess Austria-Hungary turned into, with enclaves of just about every other nationality within the nominal territories of each major nationality it split up into, and generations of irredentism and ethnic "cleansing" following and still going on their bloody poisonous path into our day.

If on the other hand the overarching imperial order is seen as livable and beneficial by all its subjects; if members who are a tiny and easily overwhelmed yet distinct minority in one region are backed up both by the fact that elsewhere in the empire they are the majority and a general imperial policy of backing the rights and dignity of all groups who are loyal and helpful--then we instead have a vast, polylingual composite supersociety, with its many parts strengthening it rather than tearing it apart. Centrifugal secession is not an appealing option when each separated part would have to deal with a polyglot motley crew of minorities; at best each separated substate must adopt the same multiethnic policy the superstate has already developed; history teaches us of course that much uglier "solutions" will occur to the chauvinistic elements of each separate majority.

Separatism would be appealing only if the super-state fails in its mission of orchestrating the many parts into one whole.

I was quite disappointed to learn I had gotten confused and misread William's role; I had thought he would straightforwardly become King of Canada. It is a bit confusing and sad to me he doesn't, but the guy I think he is could still play much the crucial role I imagined for him. I had him cast as the Arthur of his romantic Round Table of Canada but maybe he is going to be just as happy as a humbler Lancelot (one however decently married to his Guinevere!) A knight-errant with a roving commission to cobble together a unity of shared loyalty among very diverse peoples who remain distinct and yet Canadian. He isn't king; this gives the dynasty he splits off of plausible deniability in his renegade Catholicism which the ruling house stays clean of--but he is passionately loyal to his family and the greater British Empire it symbolizes, while also passionate in his new Catholicism which for him is the romantic embrace of colorful other cultures--Canadien, Metis, Louisianien, now the Spanish Rio Bravanos, the Catholic-German Bavarians of Tejas, California and its Latino contingent of settlers. If I read the man right, he will also respect non-Christians such as the East Indians and those Native peoples who choose not to adopt some Christian denomination as yet. I can see him roving up and down the broad new Canadian claims, putting out fires with charm, learning language after language (Spanish is after all not too far from Portuguese and the Latin I'm sure he is brushing up on; the Native languages are a bigger leap but the more languages one learns the easier the next one is and he'd have found ample reason and opportunity to negotiate with American Indians of the Protectorate in the war-preparation months and now during the war).

So I look forward to seeing more of Duke William Ramsey, agent-errant.

Now, if he turns out to be less of a diplomatic genius than I give him credit for, or gets tragically killed off in the endgame of this war with the Yankees or some more inglorious fight down the line, I will be personally sad. But I don't think this paragon of romanticized collaborative imperialism I have imagined is out of line with the Canada that has been established thus far. Perhaps with less dash and sentiment, and more rough spots, I do think this sort of social balance of power in the service of a mutually beneficial common good has already been encoded in the social genes of the BNA system that has evolved already. At this time, the common good appears to be mainly a matter of containing Yankee imperialism and irredentism; it might seem that if the USA does collapse, split up or resign itself to isolationism that the Canadian conglomerate will start to dissolve in short order. However there are other benefits to be gained besides alliance against a powerful foe. If the distribution of power that is the de facto reality of this glued-together ramshackle realm is combined with the British drive toward capitalist industrialization that seems to exist in this timeline as well as our Victorian period, and the political machinery underlying the growth of capitalist production is less one-sidedly in the hands of the plutocrats in Britain and more a matter of gaining mutual assent from diverse frontier types, then a slightly restrained capitalism with a human face can easily serve as the glue that holds the realm together. Free trade--rather, loosely managed trade-- is much more easily handled among a bunch of subdomains that have a shared commitment both to imperial mutual defense and to mutual profit than among a bunch of separated nominally sovereign but dangerously weak entities.

One strength the Canadian realm will lack will be knowing what the alternatives are. If they could see sideways in time and compare the mess that would result from all these regions each trying to go it alone, they'd be that much more grateful, but they don't have that, so Dathi's task is to make the ongoing unity (such as it is!) of the sprawling and diverse possessions of BNA seem natural in its own context, without reference to the likely tragedies of it splitting up. I place a lot of hope in the ongoing wit and decency of the leadership keeping the terms of staying in reasonable and fair.
 
Indiana 12 (Fall and Winter '43)

Indiana 12 (Fall and Winter '43)



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]There was somewhat of a lull in the fighting in the late summer of '43. The US forces were busy digging and building fortifications south of Liverpool, north of Vincennes, on the east bank of the Skillet Fork, and along the lower Ohio; as well as pushing back into *Illinois and recovering some of the forts they'd had to abandon. They also had to replace all the supplies lost. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Canadian forces were trying to consolidate and hold onto the territory they have taken back, particularly Ft. Brock, the area south of Liverpool, and the rail line east from Liverpool to Indianapolis. The cavalry freed from the Tejas, and the Métis forces down from the Red River (of the north) meant that there are far more raiders to cut supply lines as the US tries to take back *Illinois, and that means that US didn't recover all the territory it had. Moreover, instead of tiny fortlets with a handful of men (basically big enough to hold down a neighbourhood of civilians), the US has had to build bigger and stronger, but fewer, forts.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]This was the status until into October.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]As time progressed, the balance in the riverine war tilted more and more in the Canadians' favour. Especially, since, starting at the end of August, the first armoured boats built in Britain arrived from across the Atlantic. Mostly they went to the Mississippi theatre, where, by now, Britain had unchallengeable control of the entire length of the river. This allowed the British to start pushing up the Ohio River. Some of the Rodent class boats started raiding short distances up the Tennessee and Cumberland, since the defences at Harrison [OTL Paducah] had been rendered useless. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Starting in October, the temporary militia started coming back. The Canadian forces moved south from Indianapolis on the White River, supported by riverboats, pushing as far as Ft. Agnes[1] where the Eel flows into the White (this is where the border goes West towards the Wabash). [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Similarly, they took the west bank of the Wabash, reclaiming the rail line there, and putting it back into service. There were still too many US forces near Vincennes on the west bank, so the advance stopped near Jackson[ATL name of a town near OTL's Palestine or Robinson]. Mind you, the US forces on the west bank were feeling slightly isolated at this point, because the Canadians controlled the river thoroughly down to Vincennes, and even past it some by October. All supplies for the west bank of the river had to go downriver some miles (out of the Canadians' reach), cross, get carted north to the RR and then run north (or west, for the forces reaching across to the Skillet Fork). This was perfectly doable, but was more effort than it used to take. Actually, the slow down in supply was as much due to problems with getting the supplies to Vincennes, but the soldiers out on the pointy end of the stick didn't know that yet.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Some of the militia, again, headed to Chicago and down the Illinois, coming in from Coal City and Prevost, as they had during the summer, and putting pressure on the re-established forts. Although this was a minor effort this time, as the major effort was to take the rail lines back. If/when that happened, those forts would be cut off, and fall like ripe fruit.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Again, others went all the way down to St. Louis and beefed up Canadian pressure on the rail line heading east from St. Louis towards Vincennes.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In early November, in a drenching rain, Canadian troops poured over the US defences just south of Liverpool, and pushed them all the way down to the secondary defences around Vincennes. While the Canadian attackers were, in fact outnumbered, their guns worked, half of them had breech-loaders and thousands had revolvers, while the US flintlocks didn't work[2]. Once again, new earthworks and fortifications had to be erected on both sides (the US forces had a reasonable start – but those were more meant as a back up, or to hold off raiding parties landed north of town). And, once again, the US has lost a whole set of siege equipment (cannon and ammunition – food, too, but that's not quite so urgent). [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By now, Canadian attackers were finding that US positions were desperately short of ammunition. A heavy push can get the defenders to fire off all they have on hand, and then they have to surrender. Using this technique, they took a few more US defensive positions along the rail line on the west bank of the Wabash, reaching Ft. Albert in mid-November.[3][/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The raiders, who earlier in the summer had taken *Illinois forts, were now given a very different mission. They were to cross the Skillet Fork north and south of the new twin forts there, and attack the rail line of communication from Vincennes. This couldn't (and didn't) stop resupply to the US fort at the Skillet Fork, but it did hinder it and make it far less effective. Given that the US was having problems already, every shipment lost or scattered is important. The US fort had several thousand defenders, and was going to be tough to take in a frontal assault. On the other hand, it was a hastily improved log and dirt fort, and sustained cannon fire can do nasty things to the walls. Mortar fire dropped shells, some incendiary, inside the fort and made life there very nasty. Again, on a rainy day, the British/Canadian forces breached the walls in several places, and attacked through the breaches and took the fort. Then it was a matter of just rolling up the minor defensive positions on the the rest of the line. By early December, the Canadians coming down from the north along the river and the British coming east from St. Louis came in sight of Ft. Francis (which has been in US hands since April). Since Ft. Francis had been thoroughly repaired and restocked, the two forces stopped out of cannon shot and commenced a leisurely siege. While it would have been nice to take the fort, it would have been too expensive, and the Allied command had other uses for those troops. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Canadians had to build a road and then lay new rail to keep the supply lines out of range of the US guns, but that then gave them good supply lines from Québec City through to St. Louis and hence New Orleans – even when the northern rivers froze.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Once the US had been pushed back to the outskirts of Vincennes and the single point of Ft. Francis on the western bank, enough forces were left to keep them pinned down, and the bulk headed west down the rail line to St. Louis. [/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Mississippi[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]While the land war was going on in Indiana, the armoured riverboats plied up and down the Mississippi, attacking anything that even resembled a military target. The US had started to erect forts on the river at Winchester [OTL Memphis] and Walnut Hill [OTL Vicksburg], but they were shelled into oblivion. Instead, the US built new forts back along the rivers (Wolf and Yazoo, respectively), out of (accurate) range of the British river-borne guns. These forts were therefore useless at protecting their respective towns, but the US government claimed they would protect them from land attack. While they were of minimal use for that purpose, they did, in fact, protect the land upriver from marauding British boats (saving them from the fate of the lower Tennessee and Cumberland), and, perhaps more to the point, the authorities could be seen to be doing SOMETHING, even if it was not actually terribly useful. This is always a useful goal in a politician's mind.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The towns themselves were not terribly damaged, as terrorism wasn't the British goal. Any activity or establishment that looked even vaguely military was attacked, of course, including boat yards, but residential areas were (mostly) left unharmed. Perceptible amounts of commercial activity continued. For instance, any cotton available was bought and sold - the cotton mills in Lancaster need raw product, and the US desperately needs any currency it can get. So it's in neither side's interest to stop that traffic. Obviously, 'war tolls' and increased export taxes reduce profits (especially on the US side), but it's better than nothing.[4][/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Contrasting treatment of US civilians[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]It is worth noting the contrast between the fates of US civilians in various areas. Along the Great Lakes, any farmer who cooperated was treated well, and his produce bought for fair price to feed the Canadian forces. (Of course, ones that resisted weren't so happy.) However, the transport net there was directly linked to the Lakes, which the Canadians controlled. Thus there was no danger of those farmers supplying the US war effort. Better to keep them friendly.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]On the Mississippi, once the initial invasion of Louisiana had failed, those towns and farms also weren't of much help to the US war effort, and were, to some little extent, helpful to the British. Any military activity (broadly defined) was stomped on hard, and things like boat yards were essentially destroyed (as they could be used for military purposes), but day-to-day farming was untouched. Cotton was even shipped out (in British boats).[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]On the White Fork, on the other hand, US farms and towns on the south (east) bank were vital to the US defence of the area. Moreover, the raiders there were often Indianans who had been displaced from their homes by the invading US forces, and thus had an axe to grind. Thus that whole area was essentially depopulated and the inhabitants turned into refugees. Living on a battle front is not fun.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Thus, as you can see, what seems like 3 totally different policies with respect to civilians, was, in fact, a consistent policy that simply took into account the different circumstances of the different areas.[5][/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Ohio[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Now, the Canadian/British forces could make serious progress on the Ohio. Firstly, a large force lands at Harrison and garrisoned the town. This let the armed riverboats ascend even further up the Tennessee and Cumberland, and totally cut off communication between the those rivers and the Ohio. They took Pinckneyville, too, cutting off the overland communication between the Cumberland and Tennessee (on the one hand) and the Ohio on the other, which had been operational for half a year.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Next, the armoured riverboats ascended the Ohio, building small forts and repair stations for the riverboats and providing support. Since there is little settlement along the lower Ohio, it doesn't even take a lot of military force. By late December, the British/Canadians have control over all the lower Ohio, and have ascended all the way to the mouth of the Wabash. The remaining US boats come out of Shelby, and join battle. They are outnumbered, underarmoured and undergunned compared to the British boats and in an epic battle on the freezing river, the US boats are defeated badly. 5 US boats sink, 3 more damaged so badly they float down river into British controlled territory, the rest escape up river to Louisville. 3 British boats were sunk, 5 were damaged enough to head down river, 3 escort them. The remaining boats shell Shelby, destroying the fort there, for the loss of another boat and another floating downstream. This was a huge victory for the British.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]However, ice was starting to form[6], and the British don't dare stay this far up river. Moreover, they had pulled all their boats off the Mississippi in order to have overwhelming superiority on the Ohio, and some need to go back and patrol there. The remainder retreated back to Harrison and regrouped. [/FONT]





[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1 OTL's Worthington, Indiana. Named after the fort commander's mother. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]2 The actual situation is far more complex than 'percussion caps fire/flintlocks don't'. But, in rain that's what it amounts to, statistically. The much heavier rate of fire from the Canadian attackers left the US defenders using knife (bayonet) against gun (functioning rifle). Not a winning proposition.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]3 modern St. Albert, OTL's Russellville. Canadians took it on November 15, the feast of St. Albert the Great.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]4 the British blockade is pretty effective. However, they don't view everything as contraband. No US boats are allowed to travel up and down the river. However, some goods, like food for British troops or cotton, can be sold to British agents (on either side of the river). On the Atlantic seaboard, no US ships are allowed to enter or leave port (any that try are seized), but neutral vessels (primarily French) are carefully inspected, but allowed trade in some goods.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]5 Well, that's the official Canadian line, then and now. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]6 I don't think that the Ohio freezes over, at least not there, but even skims of ice near the edge and small floes might make navigating in unfamiliar waters hazardous. More to the point, the British captains don't know what's going to freeze over, and quizzing locals brings out horror stories rather than accurate meteorological assessments. While the British forces doubt some of those stories, they pull back for now, closer to their own bases. Better to be safe than sorry. They can always come back later, if the US won't make peace.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]I'm guessing the US boats dare operate there once the Brits have pulled back, but OTOH, if they try contesting the lower Ohio with the British, they'll lose. So they remain in Shelby or up-river.[/FONT]
 
Dathi

Catching up after a spell away, as my mum was unwell so spent some time with her. Great to see the TL making such progress and sounds like the war will be ending shortly, unless the US leadership gets even more stupid, in which case it could see serious internal problems. Even without this the level of defeat, even if no land is lost, is likely to mean pressure for internal change, which could go in any number of ways.

I'm a bit concerned about the ending of the Mexican conflict. Partly the wheeler-dealing by the British diplomats seems a bit too successful and partly rather more complex than necessary. Why talk to the Mexican central government at all? I could see the deal between Gonzales's force and the Rio Bravo rebels, which gives them both some security from Santa Anna's hostility. Or possibly say Britain would support an attempt by Gonzales to end the war [aka as relocate to Mexico City and organise a change of government;)] as a way to get peace. Either route would probably avoid the degree of mistrust that results from just about everyone, including the Canadians, feeling betrayed to some degree.

Also while a protectorate could be established over the RBR [Rio Bravo Republic] I can't see it being needed to bring it under formal British or Canadian control. Just a clear statement that anyone [looking at you Mexico;)] who tries to attack it is going to get walloped.

I'm not sure that Britain, or Canada, would be that interested at this stage in organising the super Canada, including Louisiana, RBR, California etc? Plus those distant areas might well prefer having their own local government looking for simplicity to London in the event of any problems.

In terms of the problems of such a polyglot state I think it has one big advantage over Austria that hasn't been mentioned. With the exception of the native Indians, the vast bulk of the population are fairly recent immigrants. Furthermore there hasn't been that much conflict between the various groups, as against the external threats of the US and Mexico. Hence you don't have the same poisonous history you had with Kosovo, to use a more recent example, where the dominant Serbs had long historical links while the majority Muslims were discriminated against by them. Also it looks like a fairly discrimination free system is being developed where there will be less internal tension. [This could of course change if some group, most likely the politically dominant Anglos, sought to preserve/extend their position by seeking to control immigration and/or marginalise other elements already there. Bound to be at least some people who will try something like that, especially as the threat from the US probably declines. However need to make sure such impulses are suppressed as far as possible].

The situation in BNA is going to have impacts in both Britain and elsewhere in the empire. More advanced minority rights and racial equality in Britain's most important, flagship colony will prompt reactions elsewhere, most noticeably in India and S Africa I would say. Which again could go either way.

I wouldn't be too sure about no major Sepoy revolt. While the cartridge issue will remove one factor I think the main impact was social and economic. In Indian society soldiers have considerable status and during the preceding centuries they had also gained good salaries and general job security. When the EIC grew overwhelmingly dominant there was far less need for soldiers and economic pressure for the numbers to be reduced, both in directly ruled lands and the remaining princely states. Since the company didn't want to 'waste' money on troops and also didn't want any potential opponents maintaining large forces. This meant that large number of military families found their positions drastically weakened. It is noticeable that a common factor in many of the revolts was that the local rulers who allegedly were running the rebellion, were forced into giving substantial salary increases to the rebel troops.

It might be that if there is fairly regular employment of sepoy forces outside India, the main pressure here for unrest is reduced. However this would tend to mean such troops are being used elsewhere, probably in conflict, which is likely to be expensive and could cause other complications.

Steve
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif][/FONT]
 
Firstly, thank you for the response.
Dathi

Catching up after a spell away, as my mum was unwell so spent some time with her.
Sorry to hear that.

Great to see the TL making such progress and sounds like the war will be ending shortly, unless the US leadership gets even more stupid, in which case it could see serious internal problems. Even without this the level of defeat, even if no land is lost, is likely to mean pressure for internal change, which could go in any number of ways.
true

I'm a bit concerned about the ending of the Mexican conflict. Partly the wheeler-dealing by the British diplomats seems a bit too successful and partly rather more complex than necessary. Why talk to the Mexican central government at all? I could see the deal between Gonzales's force and the Rio Bravo rebels, which gives them both some security from Santa Anna's hostility. Or possibly say Britain would support an attempt by Gonzales to end the war [aka as relocate to Mexico City and organise a change of government;)] as a way to get peace. Either route would probably avoid the degree of mistrust that results from just about everyone, including the Canadians, feeling betrayed to some degree.
Yes, the British diplomats were too clever for their own good. I don't think it's unrealistic, though.

Why talk to the Mexican government? Because of Gonzales's force. Most of them are loyal enough to him that they won't turn him in to the central government (which they believe, correctly, to be corrupt and unworthy of loyalty). They are, however, loyal to Mexico, and have no interest in becoming Wild Geese equivalents. Part of Gonzales's deal is that his men, those that want to/dare, get to return 'home' to Mexico. I don't know if you noticed, but only about a third of his force was went to Rio Bravo, over half went 'home', although the Yucatan is only 'home' in the broadest stretch of the imagination.

Moreover, the British didn't want to be saddled with tens of thousands of troops of dubious loyalty, having to watch them constantly and feed them.

As slimy as the negotiations were, the end result is probably as good as was likely possible for each of the parties. Mind you, if the negotiators had been honest, there'd have been fewer hard feelings, and the same situation MIGHT have been the result, but starving soldiers, extended revolts, and similar poisoned feelings (although possibly directed differently) might well have result, too.

Hmmm... Why not send him to Mexico City to institute régime change? Oh. that. Hmmm... Because the Brits didn't do régime change:)? (ROTFLMAO!) Let's see. Because the Brits didn't care what happened to Mexico, as long as they got what THEY wanted? Ja, that's it.

Actually, I suspect that Santa Anna had enough loyal troops around the capital that such an invasion/coup would have failed, engendering even more ill-will. Moreover, even if it did succeed, any Gonzales government would be treated by the whole world as a British puppet (especially by the British?), and any treaties it signed would be of dubious validity. This just sets up generations of hostility between the neighbours. Better to grab what's grabbable and then make peace.

Edit: the fact that Britain added sweeteners like (Gonzales's) troops for the Yucatan and a sizable 'purchase price' for California is going help relations in the long run. Régime change, or overwhelming military victory wouldn't be worth the effort, IMO.

OK, and the fact that I didn't THINK of that option.:)

Also while a protectorate could be established over the RBR [Rio Bravo Republic] I can't see it being needed to bring it under formal British or Canadian control. Just a clear statement that anyone [looking at you Mexico;)] who tries to attack it is going to get walloped.
Oh, the Brits would have LOVED having Rio Bravo as a protectorate! It's the Rio Bravenses that insisted on being part of Canada.

Here's the reasoning.
They've just seen how British diplomats are willing to play fast and loose with, well, everyone for their own goals. If they are under London directly, they WILL get sold out in any negotiations with Mexico. OK, that's their slightly biased feeling at the moment, but it's way too close to reality. OTL, any time Britain negotiated matters for Canada with the US, the results were ... favourable to the US. The fact that the US was a huge market meant more than the fact that Canada was her biggest and best settler colony/Dominion. Mexico is far less important than the US, yes, but Rio Bravo iTTL is far less important than Canada iOTL.

Edit: OK, "sold out" is probably excessive. I mean, the US didn't get EVERYTHING their way iOTL in the Maine/Canada, BC/Alaska disputes, but the British were clearly not fighting for Canada's interests as hard as they might have. What Rio Bravo fears is giving up trade rights, border disputes, etc., rather than e.g. the leadership being sent off to Mexico City for treason trials. Still.

Being part of Canada gives the Rio Bravenses (Rio Bravans?) the best of all worlds. They are firmly part of a major British colony/Dominion/Kingdom (not just an unimportant, remote protectorate). That gives them the protection they want. They are far from Winchester, so can run their own show without interference. OK, they'd be even farther from London, but they think paternalistic meddling would be a problem there. Better to have a big brother interfering than a step father, perhaps.

No, I think the Rio Bravo decision here is the best they could hope for. The only question is whether they would have had the wisdom to see it. Even there, I think it looks like the best short-term option for them, so, ja, I think they could see it.

I'm not sure that Britain, or Canada, would be that interested at this stage in organising the super Canada, including Louisiana, RBR, California etc? Plus those distant areas might well prefer having their own local government looking for simplicity to London in the event of any problems.
Do remember that the mere POSSIBILITY of the US doing something with its huge army in the aftermath of the Civil War was enough to cause Britain to push BNA towards Confederation. With 2 actual invasions, and with the tech to allow it (telegraph and rail), I think that London will push VERY hard to get everyone together.

And the more aggressive US will make Louisiana, for instance, FAR more interested in all the protection they can get.

I think Nugax (in PMs) has convinced me that Bermuda might be allowed to escape the new Canada, and I know that Newfoundland will not want to join, but I think British pressure will force them in.

In terms of the problems of such a polyglot state I think it has one big advantage over Austria that hasn't been mentioned. With the exception of the native Indians, the vast bulk of the population are fairly recent immigrants. Furthermore there hasn't been that much conflict between the various groups, as against the external threats of the US and Mexico. Hence you don't have the same poisonous history you had with Kosovo, to use a more recent example, where the dominant Serbs had long historical links while the majority Muslims were discriminated against by them. Also it looks like a fairly discrimination free system is being developed where there will be less internal tension. [This could of course change if some group, most likely the politically dominant Anglos, sought to preserve/extend their position by seeking to control immigration and/or marginalise other elements already there. Bound to be at least some people who will try something like that, especially as the threat from the US probably declines. However need to make sure such impulses are suppressed as far as possible].

The situation in BNA is going to have impacts in both Britain and elsewhere in the empire. More advanced minority rights and racial equality in Britain's most important, flagship colony will prompt reactions elsewhere, most noticeably in India and S Africa I would say. Which again could go either way.
no comment ATM, I think.

I wouldn't be too sure about no major Sepoy revolt. While the cartridge issue will remove one factor I think the main impact was social and economic. In Indian society soldiers have considerable status and during the preceding centuries they had also gained good salaries and general job security. When the EIC grew overwhelmingly dominant there was far less need for soldiers and economic pressure for the numbers to be reduced, both in directly ruled lands and the remaining princely states. Since the company didn't want to 'waste' money on troops and also didn't want any potential opponents maintaining large forces. This meant that large number of military families found their positions drastically weakened. It is noticeable that a common factor in many of the revolts was that the local rulers who allegedly were running the rebellion, were forced into giving substantial salary increases to the rebel troops.

It might be that if there is fairly regular employment of sepoy forces outside India, the main pressure here for unrest is reduced. However this would tend to mean such troops are being used elsewhere, probably in conflict, which is likely to be expensive and could cause other complications.

Steve
Umm... IIRC, the footnote said ONE of the reasons for no MAJOR (emphasis added) Sepoy Rebellion. Yes, I know the cartridge issue was more of a spark than the cause, but... the fact that people on the ground in India were so clueless that they couldn't figure out that this was a problem ahead of time is indicative. The fact that iTTL people who have never met a Hindu or a Muslim in their entire life before respond quickly and effectively (well, quickly and effectively enough) to solve the issue is also indicative of some changes.

The Brits are imperialistic and hubristic and moralistic. That doesn't change. However, due to the very different tones set by Charlotte vs. Victoria, they have slightly less hubris, and tend more to the moral than the moralistic. The changes engendered by the FNS nurses and the deaconesses reinforce that evolution towards pragmatic (actual) morality rather than the theoretical (surface) morality of OTL's Victorian era.

India, among other places, will be a very different place in the long run.

Will this stop all discontent? Hardly. Can it stop a major continental wide revolt? Yes, I think so.
 
Last edited:
Dathi

Take most of you're points but a little feedback.

a) I meant whether an informal protectorate would be better for both sides than a formal one. Although possibly the RBR wants something formal as it reduces the chance of them being sold out and in that case Canada is more attractive to them than Britain.

b) With Gonzales I was thinking less of him winning and then becoming a British puppet, the latter especially unlikely I suspect, than simply it draws Mexican attention away from the north and gives them a real reason to make peace quickly.

c) On Confederation OTL was it the military threat, especially given that the US pretty quickly disbanded most of its army and was busy occupying the south and getting regime change in Mexico? I would say more that without Confederation and economic links such as the railways the fear was more that the US was basically absorb a number of the western provinces by settling them and providing the economic links to markets.

In TTL, although there has been some heavy fighting its fairly clear that the US is going to be heavily defeated and at least some time before it can pose a threat again, even if its stupid enough to try a 3rd attack. OTL Imperial federation failed because the assorted dominions wanted to do their own thing and I think at least partly several of the areas will think likewise about not being drawn into a greater Canada, at least at this point. They might well end up that way but in the short term there will be centrifugal as well as centripetal forces.

Looking forward to seeing what happens in India and elsewhere.

One other point. With the much greater success of Britain, both militarily and even more important in the longer run economically/socially/technologically how is Britain viewed in Europe? Is it getting anywhere near the post-1763 period when Britain was looking dominant enough, and had a session of really bad diplomacy, that it was seen as the major threat to the balance of power.

Steve
 
Do remember that the mere POSSIBILITY of the US doing something with its huge army in the aftermath of the Civil War was enough to cause Britain to push BNA towards Confederation. With 2 actual invasions, and with the tech to allow it (telegraph and rail), I think that London will push VERY hard to get everyone together.

And the more aggressive US will make Louisiana, for instance, FAR more interested in all the protection they can get.

I think Nugax (in PMs) has convinced me that Bermuda might be allowed to escape the new Canada, and I know that Newfoundland will not want to join, but I think British pressure will force them in.

Well see this does very much cut both ways - I agree Britain is going to strongly push for a unified military organisation (and the political structure to back it up) to guard against the USA.

BUT

A) This will be a land army organisation, Britain already has the best navy in the world and would have no qualms making it larger if needed to contain the USA.
B) Territorium not directly abutting the USA is an active distraction for this Canada.

How is including Newfoundland, Bermuda, or California going help Canada put boots on the ground on the Ohio or Mississippi valley? It won't, and spending money on their organisation as part of Canada is a net loss of Canadian energies where it matters for a good long while.

The west coast and the island territories would be much better managed at the imperial level of organisation for a good long while, as it'll Britain and the other colonies securing their defence for ages, and send funds for their develop rather than have canada spend her money. Eventually the west coast will be tied to Canada by railroads, but not before (and they'll probably have an identity as unique as any other of the SuperCanada peripheries by that point).

Note that Rio Bravo is the exception to this IMO, as it gives an important strategic depth to southern canada, and the large army based out of New Orleans (which will be an inevitability for Canada) will be the one used to provide security rather than any British forces.
 
Last edited:
Hello; I just read this TL through from beginning to end. Wow. I'm normally a patriotic American (in virtually all TL's except Decades of Darkness), and America's repeated bad luck in this TL is starting to grate on me, but your Canada is still excellent. And, I'm very pleased at how much detail you went into on the small points of the British succession laws - I love that sort of discussion.

So, I'm eagerly awaiting any further updates!
 
Hello; I just read this TL through from beginning to end. Wow. I'm normally a patriotic American (in virtually all TL's except Decades of Darkness), and America's repeated bad luck in this TL is starting to grate on me, but your Canada is still excellent. And, I'm very pleased at how much detail you went into on the small points of the British succession laws - I love that sort of discussion.

Ja, sorry about the States doing so badly. But if Canada is to end up as a Great Power, and of maximum size, which is basically what the point of this TL as an exercise is, then the US has to a) be constrained geographically, and b) be enough of a threat to force the various bits of British North America to actually unite.

Actually, until I wrote out the war, I wasn't sure precisely how it would go. The US is NOT going to be happy for the next decade, but rail, mobility, and the ability to use all the farmer-militia is what saves Canada's butt here. If the US had managed to pull it off even 2 years earlier, they'd have succeeded in taking back large chunks. They got unlucky in timing.
 
Last edited:
In this timeline, I'm pretty much resigned to the USA being a dystopic failed state. Objectively they don't have to be, but these defeats really do hurt, and they will probably bring out the very worst potentials of the US rather than the best. The USA here seems on a terrible downward spiral; every defeat constrains their options, which provokes more revanchism, more irredentism, more particularlistic bigotry--leading to another ill-conceived attempt to break out by force, leading to more defeat, more isolation, more bitterness...:eek:

Losing New England was a blow to the balance of the US spirit--as well as a blow to the industrialism that alone might have enabled the USA to live within its bounded means. Now, the Americans (that is, the USAians) have less access to global markets, are not getting the stimulation of diverse immigration, are becoming more and more a pariah nation.

Logically, one might expect them to try to get somewhere by coordinating some sort of alliance with some European power on a collision course with Britain. OTL until the Franco-Prussian war one would figure that would be France; in a vague sort of way the War of 1812 both OTL and here was sort of a shadowy alliance with Napoleon.

But it clearly is beyond the political mechanisms of the USA here to patiently build up forces and lie in wait for some big explosion in Europe to tie the British down, still less to arrange for one. In fact by now, with Canada having consolidated good holds on so much territory and drawing in substantial populations of immigrants while growing domestically, in the foreseeable future Canada won't need much help from the larger Empire to hold the USA at bay.

OTL after the Napoleonic wars there never was a time when France and Britain squared off against each other again; by the time Prussia is in a position to do so (and OTL they never considered it until they'd unified all of non-Austrian Germany) the USA will be in a pathetic place indeed.

Of course there is still a lot of land for Yankees to settle, still a lot of domestic growth they can manage. If they can only avoid war for a couple generations. But they won't.

If it really is necessary to have the USA as a foil to Canada to hold this Canada together--well, unless the Canadians resolve, in the next war or the one after that :eek: to put a final end to the increasingly rabid republic, and invade it and partition it into more or less tamed protectorates, they will always have this foil, coming back like the living dead at them. But living dead is what it looks like to me already; if they ever do manage some sort of coordinated alliance with some power that threatens the Empire in Europe itself, it will surely be with some authoritarian regime or other, and by then the militarized and doubtless still slavery-ridden USA would be a worthy partner of some arch-reactionary regime. The Kaiserreich might actually be too liberal and progressive for them by the time it forms!

I rather hope the Americans can learn not to fight, but that too would probably be a living death; the USA either goes rabid or goes senile, but I don't see any redemption.

This Canada is nice enough I can just look away, but it's a sad end to what I, as someone raised on Fourth of July Spirit of '76 patriotism, still see as a grand dream.

I kind of have to look away.:(
 
Shevek23

There is a clear danger that the US will go/continue down that route. However the shock of what looks to be a decisive defeat and the probable rapid expansion of Canada demographically and militarily will prompt changes. While hard liners and the American exceptionalists will still want 'revenge' and military expansion and might trigger another war there will also be the counter argument of accepting the status quo and developing the still huge resources the US has available to it.

Not that for instance much of the last wave of recruitment is being used for defending borders far away from the main fighting in Canada. This is causing tension between the states involved and the current hard line government and the latter is unlikely to fall. There will be a lot of Americans after this way arguing 'f**k this, I want to farm my lands, live in peace and prosper'. hence accept the existence of Canada and seek to improve relations.

Even if the extremists win and there is a further deterioration in the US's internal social position, i.e. more militarism, racism and xenophobia after a further defeat you're likely to see a stronger reaction against militarism and expansion by force. After all to take the two most extreme versions in OTL recent history, and I hope the US won't go that far, both Germany and Japan are now respected and successful members of the international community with high standards of living and politically stable democracies.

What is a 3rd alternative, which could be more dangerous for Canada is a coalition between moderates and the more intelligent revanchists. I.e. they decide on a generation or so of economic development to build up a populous and successful state with the possibility to having a go at Canada at a later time. [Or even possibly hiving regions off by some peaceful means]. This could include realising that immigration, at least from some areas of Europe, could be very useful and working to build up the infrastructure, which has both economic and potential military advantages and sitting on the surviving hotheads for the moment. Coupled with the virtual certainty that Britain will be seriously distracted at some time in the future there is still a possibility for military expansion in N America although I think the US would be better off concentrating totally on peaceful development within its own borders.

Steve
 
Last edited:
In this timeline, I'm pretty much resigned to the USA being a dystopic failed state. Objectively they don't have to be, but these defeats really do hurt, and they will probably bring out the very worst potentials of the US rather than the best. The USA here seems on a terrible downward spiral; every defeat constrains their options, which provokes more revanchism, more irredentism, more particularlistic bigotry--leading to another ill-conceived attempt to break out by force, leading to more defeat, more isolation, more bitterness...:eek:

Losing New England was a blow to the balance of the US spirit--as well as a blow to the industrialism that alone might have enabled the USA to live within its bounded means. Now, the Americans (that is, the USAians) have less access to global markets, are not getting the stimulation of diverse immigration, are becoming more and more a pariah nation.

Logically, one might expect them to try to get somewhere by coordinating some sort of alliance with some European power on a collision course with Britain. OTL until the Franco-Prussian war one would figure that would be France; in a vague sort of way the War of 1812 both OTL and here was sort of a shadowy alliance with Napoleon.

But it clearly is beyond the political mechanisms of the USA here to patiently build up forces and lie in wait for some big explosion in Europe to tie the British down, still less to arrange for one. In fact by now, with Canada having consolidated good holds on so much territory and drawing in substantial populations of immigrants while growing domestically, in the foreseeable future Canada won't need much help from the larger Empire to hold the USA at bay.

OTL after the Napoleonic wars there never was a time when France and Britain squared off against each other again; by the time Prussia is in a position to do so (and OTL they never considered it until they'd unified all of non-Austrian Germany) the USA will be in a pathetic place indeed.

Of course there is still a lot of land for Yankees to settle, still a lot of domestic growth they can manage. If they can only avoid war for a couple generations. But they won't.

If it really is necessary to have the USA as a foil to Canada to hold this Canada together--well, unless the Canadians resolve, in the next war or the one after that :eek: to put a final end to the increasingly rabid republic, and invade it and partition it into more or less tamed protectorates, they will always have this foil, coming back like the living dead at them. But living dead is what it looks like to me already; if they ever do manage some sort of coordinated alliance with some power that threatens the Empire in Europe itself, it will surely be with some authoritarian regime or other, and by then the militarized and doubtless still slavery-ridden USA would be a worthy partner of some arch-reactionary regime. The Kaiserreich might actually be too liberal and progressive for them by the time it forms!

I rather hope the Americans can learn not to fight, but that too would probably be a living death; the USA either goes rabid or goes senile, but I don't see any redemption.

This Canada is nice enough I can just look away, but it's a sad end to what I, as someone raised on Fourth of July Spirit of '76 patriotism, still see as a grand dream.

I kind of have to look away.:(

Canada is never really going to be able to occupy or partition the *USA. Space on the map is not the whole story - this US is going to have more people than Canada well into the 20th century even if every single immigrant who went to the OTL USA ends up in *Canada. This USA might have lost the absurd riches of the west, but the east has more industrial resources than a united Germany does, a huge agricultural base (that was underutilized OTL) and a large population.

The Boll weevil and soil exhaustion will eventually limit cotton plantations profitability and the Planter class will look to industrialization to invest their capital. The US is well suited for it and will certainly waft a new middle class to the fore.

Bigoted, insular, and Class-ridden yes, but it might not be that badly off (if you're white) and the need for militarization will actually help the working class like it did in Germany (since they need a measure of education and health services or they're not going to cut it in battle).

Plus, why do you assume the US would have to be the active partner in a European alliance, they could be easily drawn into a system at the behest of another powers machinations. If the planter class ossifies the political system it might also curb any wild adventures.

Plus you're forgetting someone very important - Russia. A diplomatic pact between the USA and Russia to pressure Britain on various fronts can achieve an enormous amount. They could also build a strategic relationship with Brazil once the latter break with Portugal (as long as they keep slavery), the Planter Class would love to send their capital and expertise to northern Brazil and it provides an outlet for America's surplus rural population. Since a shitty USA means more immigrants for Brazil, and they are going to be annoyed at Britain's controls and anti-slavery rhetoric and always have irredentist feelings over Uruguay.

Once the USA has had a generation to build railway lines to the front they can do an enormous amount of damage to Canada (even if they lose in the end). That's a big stick they can hold over Britain and Canada's head to get freedom elsewhere. All you need is a leader who's not fixated on the western frontier, which is a real possibility as the west has been closed to the US for a long time now.
 
I don't think it's much of a spoiler to say that there will be a Coalition forming to balance the League. France, Prussia, Russia and the US being the biggest names. No major war in immediate prospect, if nothing else these are commercial/diplomatic groupings rather than military alliances (at the moment), but there will certainly be diplomatic jockeying.

Peru, Bolivia and Columbia will side with the Coalition; Chile, Argentina and Brazil are already siding with the League.

This presumably means a second trans-isthmian RR and canal, sponsored by the French in Columbia (no need to split off Panama), now that I think about it.

The French and British will, however, collaborate on the Suez, in a rather different setting, got to get that written. Sigh.
 
Thinking of any trans-isthmus canal is a good bunch of decades technologically premature at this point, and who knows where the power blocks will lie then?

Also thinking of commercial bloc's at this point is rather anachronistic at this point, global trade isn't at that level yet and the British here seem to be doing everything they can to sabotage the original openness of the late 19th century. The other powers will be trying to break the ill-named league, not foster trade in parallel to it, their global trade is going to occur on flag of convenience hulls anyway, as there is no really way to stop the minor members of the league brokering their membership to offer shipping services to the outside.

Britain didn't decide to foster free trade and protect all shipping out of the kindness of its heart in the OTL, protecting only part of global shipping is difficult (due to immediacy on point of contact and no way to really check a ships registry at sea before radio communications) and costs more in investigation and organisation fees.
 
Thinking of any trans-isthmus canal is a good bunch of decades technologically premature at this point, and who knows where the power blocks will lie then?
OTL, canals were seriously proposed as early as 1826. iTTL, work has already started on the Nicaragua Canal, although it's not done yet.

Sure, it's expensive and would be mostly pick and shovel work, and the first version isn't going to be as deep or wide as OTL's Panama, but it's doable this early.

Certainly, the Suez would be the next one up, and a deal there could mean the French get a deal on rates through the Nicaragua Canal once it's done.
 
Actually the Suez canal is much easier from a technical sense, it was stalled politically. All the picks and shovels in the world aren't going to enable you to cut through the volcanic rock, or shore up those rapidly eroding slopes to prevent landslides in the tropical rain. You need dynamite for the former and heavy mechanical equipment for the latter.
 
Actually the Suez canal is much easier from a technical sense, it was stalled politically. All the picks and shovels in the world aren't going to enable you to cut through the volcanic rock, or shore up those rapidly eroding slopes to prevent landslides in the tropical rain. You need dynamite for the former and heavy mechanical equipment for the latter.

Certainly the Suez is a lot easier, technically.

Gunpowder isn't nearly as good as dynamite, but still works.

The eroding slopes are a problem, I'll agree. OTOH, steam dredges are in existence (iOTL Brunel had one in 1844, and I've made a brief reference to one dredging the river by Montreal iTTL a few years before that, IIRC).

My impression is that if you a) go with Nicaragua, b) can avoid the disease problem (see a), c) don't try to build a sea-level route (THAT would take dynamite - or nukes:)), and d) are content with a Mark II St. Lawrence Seaway type canal vs. OTL's Panama Canal, you can get a canal in the 1840s/50s. Panama's disease problem has possible solutions, too. One of the problems, apparently, was that the Yellow Fever bearing mosquitoes lived in the upper canopy. So when the rainforest was chopped down, the mosquitoes came to ground level, where they were presented with thousands of sweaty mammal bodies. I understand that if the trees are brought down first, and let the mosquitoes dissipate for a month or two, that you're far better off.
 
Dathi

That is a nasty coalition, especially since I don't think there are any 1st rank military or economic powers in the League other than Britain/Canada. The US would need to break with its tradition of no foreign entanglements and learn some diplomacy, which would be awkward if it did go further down the nativist/xenophobic path Shevek23 is fearing.

Only real option for a major ally might be Austria, along possibly with some of the other German states, but their going to need a lot of help against that continental coalition.:(

Sounds like the next war could be a biggie.:eek:

Steve

I don't think it's much of a spoiler to say that there will be a Coalition forming to balance the League. France, Prussia, Russia and the US being the biggest names. No major war in immediate prospect, if nothing else these are commercial/diplomatic groupings rather than military alliances (at the moment), but there will certainly be diplomatic jockeying.

Peru, Bolivia and Columbia will side with the Coalition; Chile, Argentina and Brazil are already siding with the League.

This presumably means a second trans-isthmian RR and canal, sponsored by the French in Columbia (no need to split off Panama), now that I think about it.

The French and British will, however, collaborate on the Suez, in a rather different setting, got to get that written. Sigh.
 
US economics (to the end of '43, and beyond)

US economics (to the end of '43, and beyond)



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]General situation to September '43[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]When Clay was elected, he immediately raised tariffs on iron and other manufactured goods. This had the dual purpose of strengthening the US industry which was badly atrophied and increasing revenue.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]During '41 and '42, despite increased revenue, the deficit ballooned due to even more greatly increased spending. In the run-up to the war in the fall of '42, he issued a massive bond issue 'Restoration bonds' (from the slogan 'Restore our Place in the Sun', these will later be called 'sunbeam' and then 'moonbeam' bonds) which was to pay the cost of the 'short victorious war', and be paid for by the proceeds from the new territories (land sales, increased taxes) afterwards. This issue was oversubscribed in the patriotic fervour of the time.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]When the war didn't go as well as expected in the initial stages, the government needed more financing, so they floated another bond issue. Some of these bonds were floated in European markets, and did quite well. The US had made major gains, the available balance of forces was very much in her favour, and lots of people (especially in places like France) did not enjoy how high-handed Britain and the Neo-Delians were becoming. A chance to make money AND tweak Britain? The bonds sold reasonably well, although at some discount, due to the uncertainty involved. (The discount, of course, made the final rate of returns higher.) A genius of marketing meant that the bonds were issued in small denominations, which, in turn, meant that a French shop keeper could buy one, for instance, thus broadening the available market.[1][/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]As the war lasted into the summer, the Indiana front bogged down and Spain started to take Florida back. Needing yet more funds, Clay tried floating another issue of bonds. These, however, sold in Europe like dead skunks, and didn't do well even within the US. Suddenly, the 'short victorious war' was not that any more, certainly not short, and not looking very victorious. The huge debt load the government had already taken on was worrying, and it wasn't immediately obvious how US could pay it off.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Now, the US was still 'winning', i.e. controlled far more ground in Indiana[2] and (East) Florida than it had lost anywhere (losses were a narrow strip of land along the NY-Canada border, which wasn't very significant, and most of Long Island, which was), but the high water mark seemed to have been reached, and passed. The siege of Liverpool had been relieved; the taking of Ft Brock, while a morale booster, added no territory; the British and Canadians were gaining control over the waterways; and the Spanish were advancing in Florida.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]People started to remember the last war and how it turned out. The bonds are starting to look riskier, and the economic climate shakier. Moreover, farmers (for instance) began to demand higher prices for their produce, as they remembered the inflation that came with the last war, and wanted to protect themselves. They also became more insistent on money they could trust (for instance, Kentucky farmers want Kentucky bank notes, rather than Ohio or eastern ones.) In June and July, this was more an irritation for the US war effort (getting the right bank notes to the right places, paying a slight premium, etc.), than a real problem, but the problem only got worse.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Bond issue (the US side of it, anyway) finally sold out when a group of large investors undertook to buy a chunk and guarantee the rest[3]. They, however, took a sizeable fee for their services, and the bonds were sold a significant discount, which means that the cost to the Federal government was much higher for a given amount of income.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By September, farmers in and carters out of Kentucky were refusing payments in anything except Kentucky banknotes[4], and the trend spread. In the previous war, the War of 1812, the US government had found themselves in the same predicament, and only managed to continue the war by shipping masses of bullion west to Ohio and Kentucky to recapitalize those banks. Here, that was just not possible, the US didn't have that much bullion left. What they did do is give local banks Federal notes in exchange for local ones. The banks weren't very happy about that, but during the early summer, didn't think there was much they could do about it. By August, Kentucky banks were demanding a premium (small to start with) for their notes, by September it's a large premium, and by December, they simply refused to take Federal notes at all. During that fall, Kentucky paid its taxes to Washington with those treasury bills that Washington had used 'to capitalize the banks' during the summer.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In Alabama and Mississippi, with almost no federal troops on their soil, the states started redirecting federal tax monies. They had large numbers of federalized state militia defending the borders (and preparing to attack if they ever got the ammunition). Their excuse was “Hey, the defensive works don't pay for themselves, you know” and “why send the money to Washington, just to have them send it back again?”. Since the diverted monies are used for nominally federalized troops and fortifications, and since there were few to no regular US Army troops there to enforce the Federal will, there was nothing Washington could do about the situation at the moment, although they plan to change that after the war is over.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The states of Georgia and the Carolinas started like Kentucky, but as they observed Alabama and Mississippi getting away with it, adopted that tactic.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The huge federal presence in the remnants of Indiana and Illinois, and in most of Ohio, meant that farmers there largely have to take what payment was offered, but Ohio bank notes quickly become worthless outside of Ohio, and not worth much within it. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Soldiers, paid in Ohio notes, discovered that they couldn't buy much with them. Farmers would sell to the army for uncertain notes, but it wasn't worth any merchant's time to sell to soldiers. Moreover, those that tried sending their wages home to support their families found it difficult to get it to them in any form they could use. (Eastern banks won't convert Ohio notes to e.g. Virginia ones, and if they physically send Ohio notes in a package, they won't buy much (if anything) there, either.) This starts unrest among the soldiery. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The shock in the fall, of Spain completing the reconquest of Florida (including St. Augustine, which the US had held since the end of the previous war), followed by Mexico signing a unilateral peace with Britain, together with the reverses in Indiana and on the Ohio led to a deep loss in faith in the Federal government, and in its money. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Moreover, the worse the military situation gets, the less people believe that victory is possible, which means that war debts won't get paid, which means that they trust Federal monies less, which means that the government can't supply its troops or raise new ones, which means that the military situation gets worse, in a vicious circle. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]By the end of the war, currency has devolved, de facto, to the state level or even below. No one wants Federal treasury notes, and the various local notes have very different fates. The Alabama and Mississippi dollars are worth about 1/2 the pre-war dollar, Kentucky about 1/3, and the various eastern banks' notes aren't accepted at any rate out side their immediate area for a year or two. Interestingly, in New York, the eastern (NYC or even Albany) banks' notes are almost worthless, but the Bank of Rochester and Buffalo Bank (which have some British scrip, Canadian currency, and Canadian IOUs for collateral) have functioning currency – their notes have actual value (about on par with Kentucky's). [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In places like Ohio, New York City and parts of Pennsylvania, the only trade is by barter, 'foreign' notes, or great wads of local notes. In much of Pennsylvania and portions of the east coast (e.g. Georgia), local banks' notes are used – and trade outside that is by barter ...[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Since the banks are all state chartered, and it's the banks that issue bank-notes, the fact that 'money' is a federal responsibility constitutionally is largely irrelevant. The Federal money is (essentially) worthless, and the only thing left is the reputation of the issuing banks.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Thus a wild experiment in monetary theory is played out over the next years in the US. Initially, of course, the inflation and collapse of the money supply horrified the rest of the world and became a cautionary tale of the dangers of fiat money, and conversely the value of bullion. However, the recovery after the crash provided reams of data for later economic theorists. Why, for instance, did Alabama and Mississippi end up with such different results, starting from both being the 'hard'est US currencies - why did Mississippi keep a solid dollar and Alabama lose it. The crack-down on money supply in Virginia ended up giving Virginia the hardest currency in the US by 1855, but the most stagnant economy, whereas the Union of Philadelphia dollar[5], while weak, provided stimulus to the whole mid-Atlantic area, and made Philadelphia the financial centre of the US that it is today. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Federal government finally managed to re-unite the country's currency in the late 1850s, slowly introducing the bullion-backed American Eagle, initially as a medium of exchange between local 'dollars' and ultimately replacing them entirely[6]. A 'dollar' ends up being a small coin, 1/10 of an eagle. Ironically, scholars in modern times now believe that the currency markets were already recovering and the increased faith in government and government money was already happening and would have continued, albeit more slowly, while the bullion backing caused a money shortage which hurt the US economy.[7][/FONT]





[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1 OTL, this was an innovation that greatly increased de Lessep's sales of bonds for the Suez Canal.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]2 ATL's Indiana, most of the gains are in what we'd call Illinois.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]3 this is what happened during the War of 1812, as well – both iTTL and iOTL. ITTL, these investors are, many of them, based out of New York City and have a sizeable vested interest in getting the war won, so they can return to business as usual.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]4 i.e. bank notes issued by state banks from Kentucky. Some of this happened iOTL and iTTL in the War of 1812. In that war, the Feds shipped large amounts of bullion west to deposit in those state banks, to get the local money locals would take. Here, there IS no bullion to ship....[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]5 Philadelphia banks early on realize their predicament, and agree to coordinate the supply of their notes. With the only functioning naval port left (so Federal spending sometimes provides harder currency received from e.g. Alabama), a large commercial port, a reasonable farming hinterland, and economic influence reaching up to the iron mills of eastern Pennsylvania, the Union dollar becomes a very useful local currency – although pretty undervalued (a bit less than 1/5 of prewar value in the days after the war). Again, partly because of the naval and commercial presence, Philadelphia becomes the major currency exchange and arbitrage market for the US, and parleys that into being the financial centre of the US. This is made easier by the horrific collapse NYC suffered.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]6 compare the evolution iOTL of the European Monetary System first with an Exchange Rate Mechanism and the ECU (European Currency Unit) as a weighted basket of currencies, then to today's Euro. The advantage the US has here is that everyone 'knows' the US should have a single currency.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]7 compare the British decision to return to the Gold Standard after WWI. It strengthened the pound, but did serious damage to the economy.[/FONT]
 
Dathi

Ouch! It sounds like the US is going to be in a fair degree of fiscal [and economic] turmoil for ~15 years. Which might prompt internal political change to more moderate policies. The mess is also likely to mean that, unless government to government, the US is unlikely to get good terms for foreign bonds/loans in the near future.

Interesting that New York ends in a real mess by the sound of it. With it fact it could end up virtually a border city and Indiana's continuation restricting its function as a focus for western settlement I wonder if its going to end up declining significantly.

Steve
 
Well, we already know Philadelphia becomes the financial center; that's one clear strike against NYC right there. NYC might suffer less relative decline as an industrial center because of its coastal position; that's a bit of a wash, because on one hand if the city is to be defended it had better have some massive arms--fortifications, shore batteries, and ships--on the other, the fact that Philly is easier to defend in depth (attackers must fight their way overland or up the Chesapeake) might be yet another strike against investment in Manhattan.

I wouldn't be surprised if the place has already reached its ultimate peak in development by now and only declines and is forgotten, except in a historical sense.

The more committed I am to the "doomed Yankees" hypothesis, the more pleasant a surprise any minor crumbs of solace Dathi throws the USA's way will be, so I'll just stick to my lines as Doomsaying Cassandra Shevek for now and just secretly hope y'all voices of balance and reason might be right.

Certainly nothing I read above gives me hope yet. A decade and more of financial disruption on top of defeat? Even if they do hang on to some of the territory stolen from Indiana (and in my view the Canadians are not going to stop until they win it all back--to do less would send an awkward message to the Indians after all!) that would only reinforce the notion that the one road to any meagre crumbs of success open to the USA is conquest by force. Meanwhile they aren't going to get back Long Island, or Florida, I don't think.

Territorial loss, perverse incentives of territorial gains elsewhere, financial crisis, disgruntlement with the current leadership and legions of snake oil salesmen auditioning for Redeemer since sober, sensible people would have to admit there is no easy path to glory and profit and the sensible thing is to try to live within their curtailed means--sorry, it looks like a formula for Round 3 to me rather than a salutary, sobering wake up call.
 
Top
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top