Protect and Survive: The Road To War
KAL 007 was a flashpoint, but there wasn't a single POD, but several subtle shifts and incident over a period of time.
1 September 1983 -- Korean Air Lines Flight 007 shot down by Soviet Air Force fighter over Sakhalin Island. The United States responds by placing forces in key areas on a higher state of alert, and accelerates plans to deploy advanced Pershing II IRBMs in West Germany and France
October 4, 1983 -- US and Soviet negotiators meet in Vienna, Austria. It was more of an argument than a round of negotiations. The Soviets loudly protesting proposed US deployment of intermediate range nuclear-missiles in Germany and the cruise missiles in Italy and the UK. American negotiators immediately press for Soviet openness and compensation in the Korean Air Lines 007 tragedy.
October 10, 1983 -- Reinforcements to the current U.S. Army Garrison in West Berlin begin arriving. The UK Ministry of Defense also announces that they will increase their commitment to NATO forces in West Germany and West Berlin. Both moves loudly condemned by the Warsaw Pact.
October 14, 1983 -- American intelligence learns that new runways for Grenada's main airport are being built by Cuban engineers, and the runways are planned to be built to Soviet military specifications.
October 15, 1983 -- Francois Mitterand withdraws his objection to the introduction of U.S. cruise missiles in NATO countries. His decision coincides with a decision to execute a second round of French air strikes against pro-Iranian factions in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon.
October 23, 1983 -- A truck bomb ignites at the U.S. Marine Barracks in Beirut, Lebanon. 241 servicemen are killed in the blast.
October 24, 1983 -- American warplanes conduct an immediate reprisal raid against positions manned by those claiming responsibility for the bombing. French jets also pound those positions.
October 25, 1983 -- U.S. Forces invade Grenada at the invitation of some of its neighbors in the Carribean. The ruling Leftist government of that country was overthrown for an American-backed governing council on October 31, 1983.
The invasion was heavily condemned by the Soviet Union and Cuba.
October 26, 1983 -- A column of Soviet and East German tanks take up "imtimidation" positions in East Berlin. The Soviet deem this as a move to "keep order" against recent "unrest" in East Germany. In reality it was a Soviet response to the reinforced Berlin forces placed by the US, UK and France.
October 27, 1983 -- Student riot in East Berlin to protest the growing military presence of both sides in the divided city escalates into a armed shootout between East German, Soviet, French, British and American troops in the city. During the melee a disoriented Soviet solder mistook an explosion of a malotov cocktail thrown by an East German student for an attack from West. He fired an RPG towards the West that cleared the Berlin Wall, and hit a pastry shop in West Berlin, injuring 6 and killing 1. Overall, 37 people wounded, 8 people killed. No troops were killed, but both sides were at a hair trigger in Berlin in the days after this incident.
October 31, 1983 -- The Soviet withdrew a portions of forces from East Berlin to take down the level of tension in East Berlin, but anti-Soviet, anti-NATO, pro-reunification demonstrations would spread across East Germany over the next two months.
That folds neatly into the next shift. In OTL, The Soviet KGB was engaged in a n effort called OPERATION RYAN. It was an attempt to gather data that suggested that the United States and Britain were planning a first strike against the Soviet Union. Much of this came to a head during the Able Archer '83 NATO exercise conducted November 11-16, 1983. In OTL, NATO high command and President Reagan, when told about the Soviet fears based around RYAN did everything to assure the Soviet's listening in, that Able Archer was an exercise, not a preparation for an attack.
ITTL, Able Archer became a buildup. The western response to the situation in Berlin was an expanded commitment, led by the British and the Americans. Even NATO members that a traditionally against an expansion of military commitment such as France and the Netherlands got on board.
The Soviet response was in line with RYAN. Continued Warsaw Pact build up, with an eye towards intimidation, out of the fear of the "Reactionary Gun-Toting American Cowboy Ronald Reagan" as he was described often on the pages of Pravda and Izvestia.
The rest of 1983 saw a lot some scares and smaller flashpoint incidents. One of the most notable was on December 29, 1983.
This incident coincided with the run up to the annual Orange Bowl game in Miami, which had the attention of the nation and a sellout crowd expected to the see the University of Miami Hurricane meet the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers for that year's National Championship. After consultation with the White House and the Pentagon, the game was played as scheduled but with the highest level of security and military coverage for any sporting event on U.S. soil ever. The security could be likened to the posture for OTL Super Bowl XXV (Played during the 1991 Persian Gulf War) and Super Bowl XXXVI (Played 5 months after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York, Washington D.C. and Pennsylvania).
January 8, 1984 -- Soviet Premier Yuri Andropov, speaking to the Supreme Soviet made a veiled threat to West Berlin.
In response President Reagan put all U.S. worldwide at DEFCON 3.
The rest of the month saw a continued build-up on forces on both sides. Rhetoric become more pointed and bellicose. By the end of January '84 both NATO and Warsaw Pact countries were actively and openly preparing for war.
On January 29, 1984 -- A KLM Airliner departing from Istanbul bound for Amsterdam crashed on the Greek-Bulgarian border. Recording of the transmissions between the flight crew and Greek air traffic control confirm that the plane was attacked and shot down by Warsaw Pact warplanes. It was later confirmed by U.S. intelligence sources that Bulgarian air forces acting under Soviet orders shot the plane down.
The response worldwide was harsh in the press, and led to an accelerated defense buildup on the part of NATO. It also scrubbed an event the world was looking forward to. The International Olympic Committee cancelled the upcoming Winter Olympics in Sarajevo, Yugoslavia in response to the deteriorating situation in Europe.
February 1984. The shortest month of the year showed how short the fuse between the superpowers had become.
February 9, 1984 -- Members of the Western GSG-9 counterterrorism force killed a group of saboteurs near a military installation in Hamburg, West Germany. The saboteurs were later identified as Soviet Spetsnaz personnel.
February 10, 1984 -- A massive explosion at Munich International Airport killed over 300, including everyone aboard a U.S. Air Force transport plane, filled with spouses and children of U.S. military personnel returning to the United States. Investigation confirmed Soviet involvement in the action.
President Reagan declared DEFCON 2 later that evening. It was the highest state of alert U.S. forced had been on since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
On the same day, Soviet Premier Yuri Andropov died in Moscow after battling a long illness. Control of the country was handed over to a temporary military governing commission of the Politburo led by General Nikolai Vasilyevich Ogarkov, a known man to a few in the west. He was the Soviet military spokesperson after the KAL 007 incident. His September 4, 1983 press conference where he deemed the news that the Soviets shoot the airliner down as a "lie of The West" and attempted to prove that the USSR downed an American spy plane, not the Korean airliner.
February 11, 1984 -- The first of a number of REFORGER reinforcement began leaving the U.S. for Europe. The U.S. Central Command RAPID DEPLOYMENT FORCE left for Saudi Arabia. The U.S. Southern Command initiated OPERATION MONROE DOCTRINE in the Gulf of Mexico and the Carribean.
February 14, 1984 -- Nearly 40 million people took part in demonstrations worldwide calling for immediate drawdown of forces on both sides. One of the most surprising turnouts and unfortunate acts of violence took place at a demonstration in downtown Omaha, Nebraska. The city in the middle of the USA's conservative heartland drew over 50,000 people. A participant in a counter demonstration fired shots toward the main stage and into the crowd. Two people were killed, another 11 wounded included a prominent area peace activist.
February 16, 1984 -- The interim Soviet government sends an ultimatum to NATO calling for a total withdrawal of NATO forces from West Germany by 6am Moscow time February 18, 1984. President Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent a joint response to the Soviets. NO.
February 18, 1984 -- Thirty minutes after the Soviet ultimatum expired, U.S. F-15s detected a group of Soviet military transports crossing the border into West Germany. The transports contained Soviet Spetsnaz Airborne troops.
Warsaw Pact mechanized divisions began an invasion stretching from the North German coast as far south as Trieste on the Italian-Yugoslav border.
World War Three had begun.
KAL 007 was a flashpoint, but there wasn't a single POD, but several subtle shifts and incident over a period of time.
1 September 1983 -- Korean Air Lines Flight 007 shot down by Soviet Air Force fighter over Sakhalin Island. The United States responds by placing forces in key areas on a higher state of alert, and accelerates plans to deploy advanced Pershing II IRBMs in West Germany and France
October 4, 1983 -- US and Soviet negotiators meet in Vienna, Austria. It was more of an argument than a round of negotiations. The Soviets loudly protesting proposed US deployment of intermediate range nuclear-missiles in Germany and the cruise missiles in Italy and the UK. American negotiators immediately press for Soviet openness and compensation in the Korean Air Lines 007 tragedy.
October 10, 1983 -- Reinforcements to the current U.S. Army Garrison in West Berlin begin arriving. The UK Ministry of Defense also announces that they will increase their commitment to NATO forces in West Germany and West Berlin. Both moves loudly condemned by the Warsaw Pact.
October 14, 1983 -- American intelligence learns that new runways for Grenada's main airport are being built by Cuban engineers, and the runways are planned to be built to Soviet military specifications.
October 15, 1983 -- Francois Mitterand withdraws his objection to the introduction of U.S. cruise missiles in NATO countries. His decision coincides with a decision to execute a second round of French air strikes against pro-Iranian factions in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon.
October 23, 1983 -- A truck bomb ignites at the U.S. Marine Barracks in Beirut, Lebanon. 241 servicemen are killed in the blast.
October 24, 1983 -- American warplanes conduct an immediate reprisal raid against positions manned by those claiming responsibility for the bombing. French jets also pound those positions.
October 25, 1983 -- U.S. Forces invade Grenada at the invitation of some of its neighbors in the Carribean. The ruling Leftist government of that country was overthrown for an American-backed governing council on October 31, 1983.
The invasion was heavily condemned by the Soviet Union and Cuba.
October 26, 1983 -- A column of Soviet and East German tanks take up "imtimidation" positions in East Berlin. The Soviet deem this as a move to "keep order" against recent "unrest" in East Germany. In reality it was a Soviet response to the reinforced Berlin forces placed by the US, UK and France.
October 27, 1983 -- Student riot in East Berlin to protest the growing military presence of both sides in the divided city escalates into a armed shootout between East German, Soviet, French, British and American troops in the city. During the melee a disoriented Soviet solder mistook an explosion of a malotov cocktail thrown by an East German student for an attack from West. He fired an RPG towards the West that cleared the Berlin Wall, and hit a pastry shop in West Berlin, injuring 6 and killing 1. Overall, 37 people wounded, 8 people killed. No troops were killed, but both sides were at a hair trigger in Berlin in the days after this incident.
October 31, 1983 -- The Soviet withdrew a portions of forces from East Berlin to take down the level of tension in East Berlin, but anti-Soviet, anti-NATO, pro-reunification demonstrations would spread across East Germany over the next two months.
That folds neatly into the next shift. In OTL, The Soviet KGB was engaged in a n effort called OPERATION RYAN. It was an attempt to gather data that suggested that the United States and Britain were planning a first strike against the Soviet Union. Much of this came to a head during the Able Archer '83 NATO exercise conducted November 11-16, 1983. In OTL, NATO high command and President Reagan, when told about the Soviet fears based around RYAN did everything to assure the Soviet's listening in, that Able Archer was an exercise, not a preparation for an attack.
ITTL, Able Archer became a buildup. The western response to the situation in Berlin was an expanded commitment, led by the British and the Americans. Even NATO members that a traditionally against an expansion of military commitment such as France and the Netherlands got on board.
The Soviet response was in line with RYAN. Continued Warsaw Pact build up, with an eye towards intimidation, out of the fear of the "Reactionary Gun-Toting American Cowboy Ronald Reagan" as he was described often on the pages of Pravda and Izvestia.
The rest of 1983 saw a lot some scares and smaller flashpoint incidents. One of the most notable was on December 29, 1983.
This incident coincided with the run up to the annual Orange Bowl game in Miami, which had the attention of the nation and a sellout crowd expected to the see the University of Miami Hurricane meet the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers for that year's National Championship. After consultation with the White House and the Pentagon, the game was played as scheduled but with the highest level of security and military coverage for any sporting event on U.S. soil ever. The security could be likened to the posture for OTL Super Bowl XXV (Played during the 1991 Persian Gulf War) and Super Bowl XXXVI (Played 5 months after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York, Washington D.C. and Pennsylvania).
January 8, 1984 -- Soviet Premier Yuri Andropov, speaking to the Supreme Soviet made a veiled threat to West Berlin.
In response President Reagan put all U.S. worldwide at DEFCON 3.
The rest of the month saw a continued build-up on forces on both sides. Rhetoric become more pointed and bellicose. By the end of January '84 both NATO and Warsaw Pact countries were actively and openly preparing for war.
On January 29, 1984 -- A KLM Airliner departing from Istanbul bound for Amsterdam crashed on the Greek-Bulgarian border. Recording of the transmissions between the flight crew and Greek air traffic control confirm that the plane was attacked and shot down by Warsaw Pact warplanes. It was later confirmed by U.S. intelligence sources that Bulgarian air forces acting under Soviet orders shot the plane down.
The response worldwide was harsh in the press, and led to an accelerated defense buildup on the part of NATO. It also scrubbed an event the world was looking forward to. The International Olympic Committee cancelled the upcoming Winter Olympics in Sarajevo, Yugoslavia in response to the deteriorating situation in Europe.
February 1984. The shortest month of the year showed how short the fuse between the superpowers had become.
February 9, 1984 -- Members of the Western GSG-9 counterterrorism force killed a group of saboteurs near a military installation in Hamburg, West Germany. The saboteurs were later identified as Soviet Spetsnaz personnel.
February 10, 1984 -- A massive explosion at Munich International Airport killed over 300, including everyone aboard a U.S. Air Force transport plane, filled with spouses and children of U.S. military personnel returning to the United States. Investigation confirmed Soviet involvement in the action.
President Reagan declared DEFCON 2 later that evening. It was the highest state of alert U.S. forced had been on since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
On the same day, Soviet Premier Yuri Andropov died in Moscow after battling a long illness. Control of the country was handed over to a temporary military governing commission of the Politburo led by General Nikolai Vasilyevich Ogarkov, a known man to a few in the west. He was the Soviet military spokesperson after the KAL 007 incident. His September 4, 1983 press conference where he deemed the news that the Soviets shoot the airliner down as a "lie of The West" and attempted to prove that the USSR downed an American spy plane, not the Korean airliner.
February 11, 1984 -- The first of a number of REFORGER reinforcement began leaving the U.S. for Europe. The U.S. Central Command RAPID DEPLOYMENT FORCE left for Saudi Arabia. The U.S. Southern Command initiated OPERATION MONROE DOCTRINE in the Gulf of Mexico and the Carribean.
February 14, 1984 -- Nearly 40 million people took part in demonstrations worldwide calling for immediate drawdown of forces on both sides. One of the most surprising turnouts and unfortunate acts of violence took place at a demonstration in downtown Omaha, Nebraska. The city in the middle of the USA's conservative heartland drew over 50,000 people. A participant in a counter demonstration fired shots toward the main stage and into the crowd. Two people were killed, another 11 wounded included a prominent area peace activist.
February 16, 1984 -- The interim Soviet government sends an ultimatum to NATO calling for a total withdrawal of NATO forces from West Germany by 6am Moscow time February 18, 1984. President Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent a joint response to the Soviets. NO.
February 18, 1984 -- Thirty minutes after the Soviet ultimatum expired, U.S. F-15s detected a group of Soviet military transports crossing the border into West Germany. The transports contained Soviet Spetsnaz Airborne troops.
Warsaw Pact mechanized divisions began an invasion stretching from the North German coast as far south as Trieste on the Italian-Yugoslav border.
World War Three had begun.
