"The reignition of active conflict in the Hapsburg-Valois War saw the continuation of another feud--one which would not only outlast, but ultimately surpass the one that had birthed and nurtured it. The bad blood between the houses of Wettin and Guise would in time give rise to wars, murders, and conflict around the world. But that was yet to come. For now, it was simply a struggle between two men--the Elector of Saxony, and the Duke of Guise. Neither realized that for one, it would mark the end not only of the conflict, but of his life..."
Achilles: Rise and Fall of a Colossus, by Pierre Lagarde (1978)
1557--Part 1
--It is time to turn once again to Scotland, which has been fairly calm over the last year. It is still a time of regeneration and renewal, as the nation recovers from the side-effects of years of war and civil upheaval. Mary Stewart continues her adroit balancing act, supporting Protestant reform while respecting Catholic freedom--and even more impressively, doing so while remaining (at least nominally) a Catholic herself. While most of the country loves the Young Queen--no one calls her 'the Wee Queen' anymore, as, at nearly 6' she towers over most of her ministers[1]--the fact remains there is an... uneasiness in the air. Most Protestants--who are certain the Queen is far more on their side than she lets on--wait for the day when they can finish up what they started, and make Scotland the Reformed Church's answer to Evangelical Denmark. Many Catholics--who are certain that the Queen is far more on their side than she lets on--wait for the day when the Queen, free of her sinister ministers, can bring back the Old Faith.
And there are other issues--with the main line gone, the remaining Douglases are quietly fighting for the leadership position. As they lie rather uncomfortably close to Stirling, and have just demonstrated what a problem they can be, Mary names a new Earl of Angus--her half-brother, James--and grants him Tantallon Castle, with a writ to "establish the Queen's law" in the area. While this does help matters, many Douglases are resentful of being lorded over by a Stewart--and a bastard Stewart at that. The year will see the hardening of a Douglas opposition. Further, they aren't the only opposition. As time goes on, some Protestants will become ever more sure that Mary needs to be MADE to step up the progress of the Reformation--among their leaders is one of her other half-brothers, Robert Stewart.[2] (James V had bastards the way many men have pets, and they lightly litter the Scottish political landscape.) Robert is not the charismatic, accomplished politician James, the newly-minted Earl of Angus, is--however, he wishes he was, and that makes him ambitious at times.
Catholic opposition is likewise hardening, though it is having a harder time solidifying around a leader, largely due to there being two significant candidates, both of whom have a tendency to jump up and down while shouting "me, ME, ME!!!" Princess Antoinette Stuart is the obvious choice--as opposed to her sister, whose religion is best summed up as "Catholic as long as you don't force her to take a stand", Antoinette is a dedicated member of the Old Faith. While this and being the heir presumptive would make her the natural rallying point for Catholic opposition, there are several little problems. Antoinette is even younger than her sister, and seems to feel that the best way to become such a figure is to make herself the anti-Mary. Thus she has staked out several very unpopular positions, most notably rabid support for the French and the Auld Alliance to oppose Mary's quiet movement away from Paris' orbit. All this doesn't help her--and Antoinette's overall personality is another flaw--imperious, capricious and vindictive. Of course, Mary has that side to her personality as well--indeed, every monarch in Europe has that side--but a life spent dancing to the tune of court politics have instructed her to the realities of her situation, and she understands the nicities of proper ettiquette, as well as the simple fact that other people must be treated with respect unless they show themselves to be worth none. Antoinette has never managed to have that realization, while her political training is best summed up as 'watching her sister do it, and being sure she could do it better'. All in all, it adds up to a rather unpromising political leader.
Unfortunately, her most significant rival for Catholic affection isn't any better, and in fact is arguably a great deal worse. Charles Stuart, Earl of Lennox, is ten years old, and largely under the thumb of his domineering mother, Margaret Douglas. Margaret holds great ambitions for her son, and quite a few grievances against her cousins, the Tudors, some of which are justified, others of which are not.[3] This has all seeped down into Charles, who has become that dangerous blend of egotistical and stupid that often causes wars when it's blended with royal blood and questionable claims to thrones. Margaret and her illegitimate half-brother George[4] (who feels he should be Earl of Angus, but that's another story) both spend their time loudly championing Charles' "rights" which are suitably nebulous enough that they may expanded upon when necessary. With these as their potential champions, most Catholics are coughing and wondering if they really need to rock the boat that much.
In other news, while Mary has yet to formally end her engagement with Charles Valois, most of Europe senses it's coming, and she's already getting new proposals. The eternally hopeful Erik, Duke of Kalmar presses his suit, as does his eternal rival Prince Frederick of Denmark. Spanish emissaries ask if she's willing to swap one deformed Prince named Charles for ANOTHER deformed Prince named Charles who is, at least, not French. Imperial ambassadors suggest that if that Charles Hapsburg isn't up to snuff, then perhaps the not-deformed-at-all Charles Francis Hapsburg would work. As Mary mulls these proposals over, many of her fellow Scots are heavily suggesting she marry a Scot, or if that is unacceptable, an English Lord. The Bloody Years were harsh, and most feel that Scotland needs to avoid foreign entanglements, especially those that potentially involve having them invade England.
--Crossing a rather smallish sea, in Ireland, the fallout from the scuffle with the Originalists continues to perculate. The English attempt to find out where "Daniel O'Farrell" has vanished to--however, this search is hampered by the same problems that hamper everything the English do in Ireland--poor administration, loose control, and a certain unwillingness to understand the facts on the ground. For example, the obvious thing to do would be to question his past associates--however, nobody in Ireland can recall who they were, and they never consider asking if anybody back in London does. Instead, what happens is a lot of random flailing around, pointless arrests and going in circles that manages to remind people just why they don't like having the English around. Meanwhile, many Originalists circulate throughout English territory, completely unimpeded by the authorities and indeed, often assisted by them. It is understood, after all, that they are tasked to encourage the development of Protestantism in Ireland, and the Originalists don't go around wearing signs that say 'Hello! We are Radical Anabaptistic Miltants Seeking To Overthrow English Rule! Ask About Our Church!' "Be as innocent as lambs, and as subtle as serpents," their master has said, and they do so, aided by the fact that the English have no idea how bad the situation is. They see this as one rogue preacher and his motely band of followers. While the Originalists remain a minority, there are far more of them then the English realize--and more and more Irish view the new faith, if not favorably, then sympathetically.
Turning to the man himself, Donal o Fearghail and his loyal band traipse through the North, hoping to gather followers. This is a weighty task--Northern Ireland is the focal point for Irish Catholicism at the moment. Further, it is the stomping ground of the formidable and truculent O'Neill Clan, regular problem-causers for English rule. Presently the family is having something of a leadership dispute--caused in part by the late Thomas Cromwell's policy of 'surrender and regrant', which has left the already muddled Irish inheritance laws even more muddled. Officially, the heads of the Clans are now English nobles, and their succession is supposed to be following English laws of primogeniture--however, many Clans still follow the old tradition of selection and acclaim. Needless to say, this results in trouble when the former suggests one head, and the latter suggests another. In the case of the O'Neils, by English law, Matthew O'Neill has been the head since the death of his father Conn last year[5]--however, the charismatic firebrand Shane O'Neill ('Sean o Neill' in Gaelic) enjoys the support of most clansmen. Shane claims that Matthew is a bastard--possibly not even an O'Neill--and even worse an English puppet, and that by all rights he is father's one true heir. Indeed, Shane is such a force that the English have more or less accepted that he's the real power in the family, abandoning their ally Matthew to his fate.[6] Much of northern politics revolves around this dispute at the moment--the rest revolves around a thousand petty feuds.
But for now dealing with the O'Neils remain a background detail for Fearghail. One day, he will have to come to an arrangement with them. But not yet. For now he gathers followers where he may. The most notable convert he makes at this point is Grace O'Malley, aka Granouile, a powerful Irish landowner and occasional pirate[7]. While she is more a sympathiser and fellow traveller than a true Originalist, she is a good sign of the new faith's gaining power in the higher circles of Irish society. And yet, he is starting to butt heads in those same circles, in no small part due to those afore-mentioned thousand petty feuds. This is the great problem Fearghail and his Originalists will face--Ireland may be one land, but it is in many ways a few hundred small states, most of which hate each other as much as they hate the English, and the rest of which hate each other MORE then they hate the English. A man like Fearghail may dream of a free Ireland, returned to its "true" customs but even he has no idea what that would actually look like, though that hasn't stopped him from pretending he does.
--In Rome, two significant events occur early in the year, one which attracts a great deal of notice, the other which doesn't. The first is the death of Cardinal Marcello Cervini, Pius' former rival turned supporter[8]. The elderly reformer has lived to oversee many of the changes he wished to make in the Catholic Church come to pass with others on the way. Pius and the Council of Mantua all mourn the death of their colleague--the funeral will indeed prove something of a touchstone in the years ahead. Pius--still a fairly young man--has seen many of his older colleagues die over the last few years, among them his other former rival papal candidate, the mildly embarassing Cardinal Ciocchi[9]--and he will see many more in the years to come. Still Church business must continue. The earnest young Carlo Borromeo is evelated to the Cardinalcy, and granted Pius' old position of Archbishop of Milan. Borromeo will champion many innovations, such as using the Confessional to encourage more moral and desirious behavior--including a instructing mothers to make sure their babies are put to sleep in their cribs, instead of in bed with their parents, in an effort to cut down on infant suffocation deaths.[10]
The second event, as noted, does not attract much notice--but this is by the design of those involved in it. In the catacombs, where Christians once gathered to practice their faith in secret, a group of priests and laymen secretly form the Society for Purity and Correctness in Doctrine. A group of frothing at the mouth archconservatives in the mold of Cardinal Carafa and his inner circle, the Society doesn't like the way the Church has been going, and they've decided to do something about it. Pius and the Council of Mantua are heretics, and even worse, they have been aiding even greater heretics, the Protestant Princes. Having thus declared themselves more Catholic than the Pope, the Society members vow to never rest until a "Pure and Correct" man is Pope, every Protestant King and Prince has either returned to the Faith,or been overthrown, and all the world is united under the "Pure and Correct" Catholic Church. Needless to say, with goals like that, they plan to be at this for awhile.
The Society--who later Church historians with a knowledge of past heresies and a twisted sense of humor will dub "the Cathars", a name that will not only stick, but be taken up by the Society's descendents--names Carafa its spiritual head. Carafa is unaware of this fact, being much too busy being in ill health and continuing work on his by now massive, rambling case for removing Pius as Pope to attend secret meetings in dank catacombs. If he did know, he would not be pleased--while he might approve of the Cathars' dedication and general goals, their attempts to correct the Church from the outside would strike him as far too close to the Protestants they claim to oppose. Indeed, for all their talk of purity the Cathars are very much the product of their age, being almost exactly the sort of group that enfolds both priests and layfolk that the Pietean program tries to inspire, except for the whole 'wanting to unseat Pope Pius and destroy the Council of Mantua' matter. The fact is, much like Luther before him, Pius has left such an indelible mark on the world that even his enemies are unconsciously imitating his ideas. (Or more exactly, the ideas Pius has appropriated from others and chosen to promote.)
--In England, Princess Margaret prepares for trip to Transylvania to meet her husband-to-be. Arthur Fitzroy and his wife welcome their first child into the world, a young girl named Mary Anne. And that's not the only pregnancy in the Tudor extended family--Edward's bride Barbara of Hesse is expecting as well. Barbara is learning to cope with her often icy husband, mostly by looking on the bright side--he is absolutely faithful to her, albeit mostly from his general unsociable nature than any affection. (William Paulet is fond of noting that he sometimes think that the Duke of York would prefer it if England existed only on paper and account books.) As the daughter of Philip of Hesse could tell you, fidelity is always a thing to treasure when you find it.
--In Prague, the news is out--Archduke Ferdinand, as expected, has gotten a mistress. Her name is Philippine Wesler--of the Augsburg Weslers, a major banking family--and Ferdinand has not only started an affair with her, but bought a small house for her to live in[11]. He regularly escapes to it, and there the couple... well, essentially act as if they were just a pair of normal people, in a normal relationship. The problem, of course, is that Ferdinand the Younger ISN'T a normal person--he's the King of the Romans and almost certainly the next Holy Roman Emperor. He has duties, both dynastic and social. What's more, Philippine isn't some woman of questionable virtue of the sort his uncle Charles associated with after the death of his wife--she's the daughter of a family of influential commoners, and that means that things will have to be... seen to. Needless to say, once the news reaches the ears of Emperor Ferdinand he decides to have a chat with his son, a decision that is only furthered when his weeping niece/daughter-in-law comes to him after SHE hears the rumors. And so father and son have a talk.
To Ferdinand Senior's surprise, his son is surprisingly candid about the entire thing. He is sorry for the trouble he is causing, but his marriage to Maria of Spain is loveless on both sides, and it is destroying him. He is willing to do what he can for the family, but he must have something of his own, or he will break. It is questionable that Ferdinand would be persuaded by this argument if it had been the late Maximilian or young Charles Francis making it--but his namesake has always been his favorite. And so, Ferdinand agrees that he will allow his son to keep his mistress, with the understanding that the Archduke will be discreet and... resume his nuptial duties with his wife.
And with that the matter is--well, not resolved, but understood to have reached a conclusion. Archduke Ferdinand has a mistress, and he prefers her to his wife. The Protestant Princes make loud noises of the moral bankruptcy of the Hapsburgs, but this tends to turn eyes towards active bigamist Philip of Hesse, so they promptly shut up. The young Hapsburg proves as good as his word, and begins to resume visits to his wife's bed. As for Maria of Spain, she isn't happy about this, but a little chat from her beloved uncle/Father-in-law has her agreeing to take one for Team Hapsburg.
The side-effect of this little... household arrangment are, obviously, going to be very far-reaching. In fact, historians are still going to be debating them centuries into the future.
--Turning to the affairs of another Hapsburg, former Emperor Charles has been ailing more than usual of late, and this has made him sentimental. While he's gotten most of his affairs in order, there is one he feels he hasn't--his illegitimate son, Jeromin.[12] And so he arranges to have the boy brought to him, so he can see his son, and make sure that he's provided for. The first meeting is pleasant enough to have the former Emperor write instructions to King Philip to make sure the boy is taken care of after he's gone. (He's rather hoping his bastard takes a career in the Church. Many future historians will find this highly ironic considering what will occur later in his life. But that is yet to come...) And it is soon followed by others.
Rumors of this quickly reach the Court, and causes the ongoing "Carlos Primo" deathwatch to move into overdrive. Needless to say, when young Charles hears news of this, he begins to plot in double time to reach his grandfather's side. It gives him something to occupy himself with aside from how much he hates his new overseers, Ruy Gomez and his wife. Taking his cue from most courtiers, he refers to the former as "Rey Gomez" occasionally to his face--the latter he dubs "Madame Polyphemus"--'for she has but one eye, and devours men,' Charles notes to his cousin Ferdinand. Charles is not alone in hating them--the Prince of Eboli is seen as an ambitious outsider and shameless social climber, while the Princess is viewed as a rather unpleasant and tempermental woman, much given to intrigues. Charles' brother, the Infante Fernando, remains in good health, doted on by his mother, his nurses, and yes, even his odd elder brother.
--And now we head over to the Baltic tangle--King Sigismund Augustus of Poland gathers his troops and marches into Livonia. Von Furstenberg does his best, but this isn't the tiny forces of the Archbishop of Riga, and so the Livonian Order finally falls. It is largely dissolved, and replaced by the Livonian Dominions, a loose-knit group of landholdings and bishophorics that owe vasallage to Poland. This would be a great victory for the nation--except for one little detail.
Ivan IV of Russia has many ties to the Order, ties which he has chosen to interpet as being their overlord. And thus, he views the Order's de facto dissolution and treaty with Poland-Lithuania as a violation of their treaties with him. And so, he declares war on the Dominions as well as Poland and Lithuania. Sigismund has been expecting this, and contacts Denmark and Sweden. While the two Scandinavian nations hate each other, they both prefer Poland to Russia. Gustav I of Sweden however is reluctant to join the war. The insanely bold man who snatched the throne of Sweden away from Copenhagen is tired and old now. He wishes to make certain that his kingdom is in order for his son's Erik's ascension to the throne. Christian III is more confident. Land gained in the Dominions will help ensure Denmark's hold over the Baltics.
And so begins the Livonian War.[13] It will last for a little over two decades, involve all major Baltic nations, and outlast all of the monarchs involved in it when it started, and in most cases, their immediate heirs. When it is finished, everyone will wonder why they bothered in the first place, with the exception of the one bastard who's benefited from it, and even he will think his rivals were saps.
--Turning to the Italian War--the naval forces of Genoa and Corsica fight a battle with the Dorias' Sardinian Navy, much of which used to be the Genoese navy. The outnumbered forces of Sardinia manage a narrow victory, thanks in no small part due to the impressive leadership of Giovanni Andrea Doria. However, it is a Pyrric victory--the Sardinian forces on Corsica are wiped out, leaving the overall advantage in the war to the Corsicans, who still have forces under the leadership of the fearsome Sampieru Corfu on Sardinia itself. Of course, not everything is good news for the Corsicans--their leader Orsini has perished in the naval battle, but they remain optimistic.
--In France, Duke Francois sets out to confront his rival at St. Quentin with the best forces France can muster at the moment. This isn't much--France is, again, broke--but de Guise has attempted to make up for it by gathering a force of capable, battle-hardened veterans. The plan is to besiege St. Quentin and reclaim it from the Elector--sadly, it collapses the moment it confronts the enemy, as plans are wont to do. In this case, John Frederick has full knowledge of the French plans, thanks to the lengthy delay in implements de Guise's design. And this has made a significant difference, for the Elector of Saxony prefers not to base his defense on being holed down in a fortress. No, John Frederick prefers a more active defense. And so Francois de Guise's army finds itself walking into an ambush in what will be seen as one of the definitive moments of the so-called "Saxon" school of tactics.
(If I may be allowed an aside--later military historians will be split on whether John Frederick is a military genius of the first water who redefined war or a reckless gambler who simply had a long, long lucky streak. Many place him somewhere in the middle--a highly capable leader whose tactics were based on the forces he had, and the conditions he faced, and thus should not be seen as having a general military application. Certainly quite a few generals in the future will cut their forces to ribbons trying to duplicate the sort of ambushes John Frederick will make his speciality.)
Guise's troops are already somewhat demoralized, and are caught completely flat-footed by the ambush--still, they manage a decent showing. However, after several hours, it becomes clear that the Elector's forces are winning. The Duke is furious at being shown up by John Frederick yet again when he spies the Elector at a distance. (Not hard to do--a typical German Prince, John Frederick insists on cutting a dashing figure in war, and thus goes about the battlefield on a large white stallion, wearing an elaborate red and white cape.) After noting, with usual French severity, what a dandy the Elector looks like, Francois, filled with a mixture of hatred and desperation, decides to attempt to change the course of the battle, and charges at his foe. Unfortunately for the Duke, the Elector not only looks dashing, he is dashing, and after a brief clash, Guise is lying bleeding in the mud. After discovering, to his immense surprise, that he has just cut down the Duke of Guise, John Frederick orders his foe to be taken to his tent, and treated by his doctor. With their leader downed, the French forces retreat in disorder, with many surrendering. Despite recieving the best medical attention the Elector can grant him, Francois de Guise dies that night. History does not record his last words--some say in fact that he was unconscious the entire time--but popular legend does, and in fact grants them a rather mythical importance....
--SCENE FROM: 'THE ROSE KNIGHT' (1937)
An elaborate tent. JOHN FREDERICK enters, dressed in armor. FRANCOIS DE GUISE lays on a bed, clearly ill and dying. His eyes snap open as John Frederick stands by his bedside.
G: So you came.
John Frederick shrugs.
JF: I heard you wished to speak to me. (Glances around awkwardly.) Are you sure you do not want a priest?
G: You would grant me one, heretic?
JF: The dying deserve comfort, whatever their faith.
Guise lets out a bitter laugh.
G: Save me your empty pieties, Saxon. I do not need them. (He coughs.) I wish you to know I accept my damnation willingly, in the hopes of meeting your Godless soul in HELL!
JF: You hate me that much?
G: Hate? Hate? I despise you, Saxon! I despise your German ways, and your German religion! You and yours have upset the proper order, and you have been the ruin of me! (He sits up suddenly, with almost frantic energy.) Listen to me, Saxon! Listen to my dying vow! There shall be eternal hatred between our two houses! It shall not end until mine destroy the very last of yours, or yours destroy the very last of mine! Thus shall it be until the Lord makes the world anew! There can be no peace between Guise and Wettin! (He begins to cough furiously.) No... peace! (And with that he falls back onto the bed, dead.)
-----------------------
[1] Her OTL counterpart was this tall as well.
[2] Historically, Robert was the 1st Earl of Orkney in the Second Creation.
[3] IOTL, Margaret got into trouble for twice getting involved with Howards--something similar happened ITTL, and while it didn't go as badly, what with a more secure succession and the Boleyn-Howards not being disgraced, Henry VIII was still not particularly pleasant about the matter.
[4] IOTL, George became Bishop of Moray in 1581.
[5] Conn--the First Earl of Tyrone--died in 1559, IOTL. Butterflies have caused his death a few years earlier here.
[6] IOTL, Matthew--father of the famed Hugh O'Neill--was murded by Shane before their father died--that said, the English response was about the same.
[7] Granouile is a historical figure, often turned into a hero of Irish independence. This is based on her general badassedness, and is in fact rather ironic, as, aside from being a woman, O'Malley was a rather typical petty Irish lord, and perfectly happy going to the English when she had a land dispute that needed solving.
[8] He died of a stroke in 1555 after a few months as Pope. His death seems to have been caused by the rigors of Papal ceremony--thus he manages a few more years ITTL.
[9] He also died in 1555 IOTL--in fact he was the Pope whose death caused the election that made Marcello Pontiff.
[10] Those readers expecting me to state that yes, he did the same thing IOTL--give yourself a gold star.
[11] IOTL, his first, morganatic wife.
[12] Yes, it's John of Austria. Obviously, not quite our John of Austria, as he was born significantly after the POD--but come on, what can you expect me to do? It's freaking John of Austria!
[13] So far, this has all pretty much been IOTL. Of course, all that's going to change... soon.