Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72

Status
Not open for further replies.
First of all, let me say that I really appreciate the open and friendly way you react to suggestions and criticisms.


One of the interesting things of the Fifth Republic set-up is that, if well managed, the President is set-up to collect the roses while the PM gets the ..well, let's just say mud. Unless the President really screws-up in an obvious way, he can always lay-off bad policy decisions on the PM.

Very true. The French Prime Minister has often been described as being like a fuse for the President. De Gaulle once said he (the PM) was there to hold on and to endure (pour durer et endurer). It even works in case of a cohabitation: in 86, six months after losing the legislative election, Mitterrand's popularity was already on the rise, and would continue to rise until he beat Chirac in 88.

Only 2 PMs managed to get elected President, Pompidou and Chirac, and not a single one moved directly from Matignon to the Elysée.

Focusing on your point, I suppose a national unity government would be an idea too to address the Grand Gachis. I've been reading a study of the 1974 French Presidential election and I note in there how divided the UDR were, not just Chirac going to Giscard, but a real quagmire of conflicting ambitions and ideologies.

Absolutely correct. It actually took some time for Chirac in OTL to get rid of the Old Guard and transform the party into the RPR, his very own political machine.

I also noted that despite how close Mitterrand actually came in 1974, fear of the Communists seems to be what held back that 1% that OTL made Giscard President.

That and the fact that Giscard ran a very good campaign and managed to present himself as a safe alternative to the Gaullo-Pompidolists and the Soclialo-Communists. His motto at the time was "le changement dans la continuité".

Following-up on your suggestion (and I agree Faure is an interesting character) let's say Mitterrand puts together a government of national unity with Faure as PM, and involving Jean Lecanuet (and maybe Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber) and Gaston Defferre as the senior Socialist in the group, how would such a government take shape? I imagine that under those circumstances he could ask Faure to invite in one or two PCF deputies in as junior ministers because there would be more than just Socialists to "control" them.

As I said, I think Mitterrand would have tried to put together a Socialo-Communist minority government, thus showing fidelity to his campaign promises and the Programme Commun. Such a government might not have been censured automatically - I doubt every single member of the UDR would have voted against. Some would at least have abstained.

If we imagine that the government is nevertheless censured, then Mitterrand could explore the National Unity option. Edgar Faure (they were ministers together throughout the Fourth Republic, and Faure was one of the very few people wo used the familiar form of address with Mitterrand) would have been perfect as PM. Defferre could have been Minister of State. Mitterrand could have offered the same title to Chaban and Giscard - Giscard might have refused, for the reasons you put forward, but Chaban could have just done it (he and Mitterrand were good friends). The Communists would also be offered a senior post and some technical portfolios. Not sure they would have accepted - but at least they would have supported the government, or abstained.

And then Mitterrand would have given time to time and waited. He was always a believer that you cannot resolve a crisis until it has reached its apex.
 
Last edited:

Thande

Donor
Excellent updates while I've been away. The British stuff rings true and the House of Commons dialogue sounds more authentic than in previous installments (which was my only, mild, criticism of this timeline).

Incidentally, after reading some political biographies I'm currently considering doing a 1970s political timeline of my own. Albeit one with a POD in 1977.
 
First of all, let me say that I really appreciate the open and friendly way you react to suggestions and criticisms.

Well, it is supposed to be a discussion board, so suggestions are always welcome in refining the idea. Wouldn't be a discussion without them.

The change in France is sort of a parallel evolution on this TL; the tables turned over the Syria venture in 1974, and in that very close Presidential election (which no one had much time to plan for since Pompidou died in April 1974, and the next election wasn't supposed to occur until 1976) it turned the tables from OTL by a very small margin of votes.

Since then I've been trying to imagine a result where the Socialists elected a President by surprise as it were, and the political system of the Fifth Republic - after a kind of initial shock - is trying to come to terms with this. So we have the Grand Gachis and a less than favourable Legislative election in July 1974 not necessarily because the French voters want to deny Mitterrand the means to govern, but because they themselves are generally divided (as witnessed by a close result in the election) and uncertain on the question.

The period between May 1974 and July 1974 is less a honeymoon than a kind of waking-up after the party sort of experience ("we did what?" "should we really trust him?" "He opposed the Fifth Republic; will he try to bring back the Fourth?" "Do we want that?" "He's okay, but what about his Communist friends?"). Now the new guy makes them choose again while they're still suffering from a metaphorical hangover.

The criticism of Mitterrand's first months in power might then translate into "he should have waited, given the people a chance to see him as a reliable leader who could master the Communists before calling the election" - that sort of thing.
 
Oops - if it wasn't for those pesky laws...

In this time line I had made Alexander Haig Secretary of Defense under Presidents Agnew and Gavin (April 1973 – January 1974), and cast him as a key figure in the return of US combat forces to Vietnam in 1973.

It has come to my attention that since Alexander Haig was a serving military officer in 1973 (on detached assigned to the National Security Council Staff), he could not have served as Secretary of Defense since, under US Code TITLE 10, Subtitle A, PART I, CHAPTER 2, § 113 (a), a person cannot serve as Secretary of Defense until they have been separated from active military service for at least ten years (until 2008, when it was reduced to seven years). This restriction would also bar Curtis LeMay (ret. 1965), Maxwell Taylor (ret. 1964) or William Westmoreland (ret. 1972) from serving in that post in 1973 as well.

Therefore I have to retcon an adjustment to this time line. For that reason I’m placing Paul Nitze in as Secretary of Defense from 1973 - 1974. OTL Nitze founded a right wing policy group in 1972 called the Committee on the Present Danger and held many neo-con views on Foreign Policy. ITTL Nitze became Agnew's hawk on Vietnam and other issues during that Administration.

To replace Nitze as Director of Central Intelligence I'm nominating in his place Daniel O. Graham, a retired Army General with a long career association with the CIA, who OTL became Deputy DCI in 1973.

OTL General Graham was a member of Paul Nitze’s Team B which did a neocon re-assessment of the CIA’s detente era analysis of the Soviet Union’s military and economic capabilities (imposing a thesis that the Soviet Union was an imminent and aggressive menace over a growing consensus among professional analysts that the Soviets were entering a state of economic decline and political caution). OTL Graham was also a member of Nitze’s Committee on the Present Danger, which had a significant impact on the OTL Reagan Administration’s defence and foreign policies. He was also a close adviser of Governor and later President Reagan.

Since Director Graham is still in place ITTL as of March 1975, references to DCI Nitze will morph into references to Director Graham as above.

As for Al Haig, he continued to serve on the National Security Council during 1973, as a supporter of Rumsfeld, Cheney and Casey, and as a key planner in the return of U.S. combat forces to Vietnam in 1973. After Agnew's departure Haig continued his military career (OTL he became Army Vice Chief of Staff and then Supreme Commander of NATO, his career may follow a different course ITTL).

That squares the legal aspect with the TL.
 
The Bite of the Red Eminence

From Anonymous - Behind the Fortress Walls


To describe Mikhail Andreyevich Suslov as an implacable foe of detente would be a mild statement. As Chief Party Ideologue in the Secretariat he had never accepted the idea of a peaceful co-existence with western capitalist regimes as a suitable state policy, no matter the strategic and economic benefits to be gained from it. Next to the mission of international Socialism to extend across the globe, these benefits meant nothing to him. Nonetheless, before the autumn of 1973 he had bowed to Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev’s will on the matter.

Only when the stagnating economy and low production, increased shortages of consumer goods (which cast doubt among the masses on the Party line that the Soviet Union was the fastest developing economy on the Earth) , the Chinese War, the mild response to American provocations in the Gulf of Tonkin through that year and the collapse of our Syrian client as a result of bungled Middle East diplomacy had caused Alexei Nikolayevich Kosygin and Yuri Vladimirovich Andropov and their many acolytes to question Brezhnev’s leadership, did Suslov come forward to join the Troika, and with this move he brought much of the Party apparatus fully behind the anti-Brezhnev putsch. But even then, as only one of three, Suslov had to accept the other two’s position on the issue of detente, even if he personally disagreed. Kosygin remained a staunch proponent of detente: ever the technocrat, he was for removing Brezhnev strictly on grounds of economic and managerial malfeasance; the Premier did not wish to change our relations with the west and, at the time, Kosygin was the senior of the three men. Yuri Vladimirovich saw many advantages in detente – his KGB exploited it for gain - though what he really thought remained buried beneath his cold eyes and cautious expression. If he shared Suslov’s antipathy to the policy on any ideological grounds, he almost certainly didn’t let Suslov or anyone else know this.

Suslov was not un-schooled in foreign affairs: his many years at the head of the Soviet Communist Party’s International Arm had brought him into contact with a wide variety of foreigners, but he had little understanding of the United States or our other western counterparts. In as much that detente was anathema to him, he cared little more about how those nations actually operated, which lead to incorrect estimates of how these nations would react to our changes of policy. It was Suslov’s stubbornness on ideological and public relations questions which prolonged an embarrassing stand-off with the British authorities over a ballet dancer and would-be defector we had been holding at our London Embassy since the previous summer: Mikhail Andreyevich would not concede that we were better-off letting the feckless dancer go – he tied the prestige of our Party and ideology to getting him back to the Soviet Union to stand trial. Suslov’s objective was to bring Socialist liberation forward, preferably by peaceful means, but the struggle, which he believed had seriously lapsed during the early 1970’s to an almost criminal degree was to be rejoined. First though, the Troika had to consolidate their control of the Party and State.

When, in the spring of 1974, the Troika of Suslov, Kosygin and Andropov had begun to undermine Brezhnev’s authority, Nikolai Viktorovich Podgorny had been compelled to step down as State President (Chairman of the Supreme Soviet) so that Brezhnev could be moved into this post. The office was largely ceremonial, and Brezhnev’s election to it served as a signal to all in the Party that change was underway, and Brezhnev was not the instigator. Suslov had engineered the change within the Party by supplanting Brezhnev’s close ally in the Party Secretariat Andrei Pavlovich Kirilenko, and then creating for himself the new post of Deputy General Secretary, which all but few unfortunates understood to mean that Mikhail Andreyevich, and not Brezhnev, was now running the party.

In March of 1975 the process was completed when Brezhnev was relived of the ceremonial posts of General Secretary and State President. Health reasons were cited as the cause of Brezhnev’s sudden resignation from public life, and indeed the former leader had suffered a stroke that winter, which made the process much easier. A possibility remained that his health had been somehow compromised in 1974 (there were rumours of an heart attack shortly after the New Year in 1974) and this could explain why Brezhnev never fully mobilized his cadres within the Party to resist the Troika. Of course Andropov and Arvids Yanovich Pelse were stepping-up the anti-corruption drive in the Party at the same time, which did undercut many of the corrupt networks that had grown-up under Brezhnev’s decade at the helm, and which were the source of much of his personal political infrastructure.

Mikhail Andreyevich Suslov now became General Secretary of the Party, reinvigorating that office while abolishing the Deputy Secretary’s post. Pelse was moved from Finance, a post he had been ill-equipped for, and became Second Secretary of the Party with a brief for tightening discipline in all sectors. Alexander Shelepin, Suslov’s one-time ally and now his rival, was effectively retired by an appointment as Ambassador to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Andrei Andreyevich Gromyko was elevated to the ceremonial post of State President. Gromyko had cultivated many contacts around the world as U.N. Ambassador and Foreign Minister over the previous quarter century and that, together with the goodwill he had cultivated across the globe, it was thought would add lustre to the Soviet state image. Valerian Alexandrovich Zorin, the Oriental scholar, a one-time Deputy Foreign Minister and a former U.N. Ambassador, was made Foreign Minister. In that post Zorin was to be a technical specialist advising the Politburo and carrying out policy; he was not admitted to the leadership circle, though he was made a full member of the Politburo for appearance sake.

Alexei Nikolayevich Kosygin remained as Chairman of the Council of Ministers (Premier), a post from which he could oversee his economic reform program. Deputy Premier Nikolai AlexandrovichTikhonov, Brezhnev’s old friend and the enabler of so many of the former Chief’s self-enrichment schemes, was retried, as was Konstantin Ustinovich Chernenko, another Brezhnev crony who had served as Secretary to the Central Committee. Suslov’s protégé Boris Nikolayevich Ponomarev was made Deputy Premier, while Andropov’s protégé Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov (a comparatively young man at 46) was moved into Chernenko’s old post. Grigory Vasilyevich Romanov, the Leningrad party boss favoured by Kosygin for his economic management abilities, was moved into the Finance position. General Victor Georgiyevich Kulikov, the Chief of the General Staff, was promoted to Defence Minister, easing out Marshall Andrei Antonovich Grechko, another Brezhnev loyalist. Tellingly, while Kulikov was made a full Politburo member, he was not made a Marshall of the Soviet Union, an indication that, like Zorin, he was being recruited for his technical and professional expertise and not as a policy maker. Meanwhile, Dmitriy Feodorovich Ustinov, who had been Brezhnev’s choice to replace Grechko when the old Marshall chose to retire or died, was quietly pushed aside.

Andropov himself became Minister of Internal Affairs with Vladimir Alexandrovich Kryuchkov as his assistant, while Yuri Vladimirovich’s acolyte Vitali Vasilyevich Fedorchuck took over as Chairman of the KGB, which he ran under Andropov’s supervision. Viktor Mikhailovich Chebrikov, second deputy chairman and a Brezhnev follower was made the Ambassador to Portugal (which by chance turned into a prominent posting) while first deputy chairman Semyon Tsniov (Brezhnev’s brother-in-law and fixer/protector) was sent to become a party Industrial co-ordinator in his native Dnipropetrovsk. It was at about this time that the arch traitor Oleg Antonovich Gordievsky came into the Andropov-Kryuchkov-Fedorchuck circle as a junior assistant and message carrier.

Andropov, Kosygin and Suslov all became joint deputy chairmen of the State Defence Council, the main body for high level military policy and decision making. Gromyko sat on the committee as nominal chairman, although he had no direct authority: apart from his symbolic status as head-of-state, Andrei Anreyevich served as an advisor to the other three.

Of course, no one at the time realized the trouble they were causing by bringing together the Kulikov-Rhyzkov-Romanov troika at the apex of the Soviet state, but that would not become apparent for several years yet.

Suslov pushed the rice-eaters in Hanoi to settle their differences with the Americans not out of a desire to aid the United States, but because his military briefers had persuaded him that the North Vietnamese situation was hopeless. The American President, General Gavin, had rallied American political leadership in that struggle sufficiently that, with an increase in manpower and airpower assets over what his deposed predecessor Agnew had first committed , his generals had gained a favourable military position in South Vietnam and Cambodia. This had allowed the U.S. to install a new puppet in the South Vietnamese Presidency, a General Ngo Truong, whose firm rule had long-term ramifications on stabilizing that country. With China acting as great barrier between us and our Vietnamese ally, our military analysts saw no advantage in pressing the military struggle. Rather, as Minister Zorin concurred, now was the time to exact an agreement from the United States covering Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.

As the situation stood, the division of Vietnam would continue, while our allies could assist their comrades in the Pathet Lao in taking control of Laos largely unmolested. This would secure North Vietnam’s northern and eastern frontiers from Chinese encroachment and give them strategic access to the South should the conflict resume. South Vietnam and Cambodia would be abandoned to the Americans for now. With the menace of American air operations removed, and peace restored to the area, we could build-up our fraternal allies in Hanoi and Vientiane, and at the same time use both countries as bases from which to ring the Maoist deviationist state to their north. Perhaps with time, Suslov suggested, we could remove the Maoist regime and replace it with a true Marxist-Leninist government.

Hanoi was not happy with the offer Mikhail Andreyevich made to them: Premier Pham Van Dong, the head of their government, was livid with Suslov over what he regarded as a betrayal, and nearly created a diplomatic incident when his frustration got the better of him during one contentious meeting on the question. However, he cooled down when he realized his relative position and grimly agreed, no doubt choking back the bile as he did so. Independent of us, and quite to Suslov’s annoyance and deep suspicion, Premier Pham instructed his negotiators to extract economic aid from the Americans as part of the overall settlement.

Our position in Syria had become complicated by developments there, not the least because General Akromeyev was busy blowing-up villages and earning us ill will from all sides. Suslov had a low regard for the military clique that ruled Syria prior to the 1973 collapse, and from an ideological standpoint he saw little of interest in the motley group of Arab generals we were supporting, in an effort to reconstitute a Syrian state friendly to our interests. In what was a rare departure for him, Mikhail Andreyevich allowed the experts at Moscow State University’s Department of Turkish Studies to brief him in full on Turkish history and the current situation.

From the fall of 1974 he began to support the Turkish position, which was to maintain a weak Syrian state dependent upon Turkey for military and economic support (It was, we later discovered, Israel’s policy on the question as well). Suslov went so far as to send the Turkish President, Fahir Koruturk, a letter suggesting that in this instance the USSR and the Turkish Republic could develop a common front on the question. Suslov was cultivating the Turks in an effort to drive a wedge into the NATO alliance at its Eastern flank. We knew from Gromyko’s talks with the American Presidential advisor Kissinger that the US President wanted a stable, pro-western Syrian regime in place which could provide some military muscle to western policy in the region. This latter part offended the Turks – who gravely mistrusted the Syrians – and represented a nightmare to the Israeli military planners. Suslov stroked President Koruturk with the idea that in a common front the Soviet Union, Turkey and Israel (a partner through their on-going relations with the Turks, we had no direct relations with Israel since the 1967 war) could bring into being a lightly armed, dependent Syria. We could re-arm Syria later if we felt the need, but the priority was to draw Turkey way from NATO. That objective fell apart when President Korutiuk, who had suspended his elected government in the summer of 1974 and assumed direct rule, lost control of his domestic situation and the fascist xenophobe Colonel Turkes was able to oust him.

Alexei Nikolayevich Kosygin and several of his technocrats had seen in the oil crisis an opportunity to develop Soviet oil resources, with the potential of making the Soviet Union into a petro state. Suslov was disinterested, until Andropov pointed out that with greater oil resources we could sell to markets in Western Europe, furthering their dependence upon our goodwill. This had the possible effect of driving a wedge into the western alliance. This turned Mikhail Andreyevich’s mind to the long-term potential of this policy.

Ultimately though, our failing was that none of us understood the Arab mind, or the feeling the Syrian adventure had stirred-up across those areas under Islamic influence. It may have been a primitive tribal belief, and altogether backward in its social values, but it had an iron grip on a region which had suffered the depredations of imperialist exploitation for over a century. Syria had become the final straw which unleashed revolutionary zeal: unfortunately that force was commanded by religious zealots and not enlightened revolutionaries who could have guide the Arab masses to a Socialist liberation.

Still, from the experience of those years we gained new opportunities in Portugal and Greece which made up for at least some of our failings to understand the Syrian powder keg.

It was against this backdrop that the Troika addressed the question of the so-called Conference on Security in Europe. We had initiated this process in 1954 as a treaty which would formally settle the borders of Europe after the dislocations of the Great Patriotic War. At the same time our initiative had been directed at replacing a system of alliances with a collective security mechanism which, among its other accomplishments, would make redundant the need for United States, British and Canadian military forces in Europe, where their presence was a provocation against the peaceful settlement of the new European order.

The matter had been rejected by the Americans at the time, and had lingered through various forms in the years between 1954 and 1969. The French leader General de Gaulle had revived it in the sixties as a method to set his foreign policy apart from that of the United States, but his efforts were more political theatre than substantive. The Nixon Administration had revived the idea of the talks, but these had lingered during the Agnew interlude: President Agnew and his advisors had been hostile to the process. The new so-called Socialist President of France, Mitterrand, had expressed interest in going further on this proposal, specifically settling questions of borders, military security and what he termed “human rights” questions.

By late 1974 General Gavin had sent signals that he wished the process to resume the process alongside Mitterrand and other western leaders. Suslov however had taken a negative attitude to the whole thing.

In 1971 Brezhnev and the West German Premier Willy Brandt had signed a series of agreements which lead to the West German puppet state recognising the border between the two German states and started diplomatic exchanges between the two. Brandt had called this his Ostpolitik (Eastern policy) and considered it a form of detente that sought to move in a positive form beyond the legacy of the Great Patriotic War. The success of this Ostpolitik had breathed new life into the European Conference proposal. Brezhnev had seen it as a historic opportunity to gain western recognition not only of Soviet gains in the Great Patriotic war, but as a means of conferring legitimacy in international law on the post-war settlements we had undertaken in Eastern Europe. The thought remained also that this Conference could be the beginning of the end for NATO.

Suslov had opposed the 1971 settlement with the Germans; it remained his belief that Germany should have only one government and that was the German Democratic Republic founded by genuine anti-Nazis under our protection. Mikhail Andreyevich maintained the old school proposition that the West German state was illegitimate because it had been cobbled together out of three allied occupation zones, its formation had involved former Nazis, and it had assumed the form of the discredited Weimar regime which had spawned the Nazi government. Suslov also noted in dire terms that Brandt’s replacement, Helmut Schmidt, had served in the Nazi Army and had been among those to invade the Motherland. The argument that Schmidt had been a draftee and only a junior officer (and not a professional military man) was lost on Suslov – as far as he was concerned an aggressor from the Great Patriotic War had become leader of the occupied segment of Germany, and as such Schmidt couldn’t be trusted; Mikhail Andreyevich convinced himself it was all part of some greater plot by the West to revive German militarism.

Andropov and Kosygin were sceptical of this revanchist attitude: they saw great possibility for the Conference, and made a great many political and economic arguments in its favour. Suslov was not one to be swayed by technocratic arguments though: ‘You see they emphasise what they call human rights in this accord,” he remarked at one plenum meeting. “What is meant by this?” he asked.

There followed a discussion among the leadership as to what the term human rights meant. There was no consensus between them.

“You see,” Suslov remarked, “you cannot agree among yourselves what it means – you see where this leads? Human rights is a western propaganda term which will attempt to insert bourgeois, anti-socialist provocation into our domestic affairs. When they speak of human rights why do they not include the human right of the proletariat to own the product of their labour and the protection of the workers from the avarice of predatory capitalism? Why is it a human right to speak sedition against the state, but not a human right to revolt against capitalist war mongering? Are these really human rights, or are they capitalists’ rights – a manifesto to exploit and oppress the masses in the guise of so-called freedom?”

The effect of Mikhail Andreyevich’s sophistry on the question was to motivate our negotiators to engage the western diplomats on the question of what was a human right, how it was defined, and why was the western approach confined to limiting interference with property and class arrangements with their so-called rights as opposed to recognizing the collective rights of the proletariat? The western states, Britain and the United States in particular, were having none of that.

Suslov exploited the organs or information throughout Eastern Europe and with friendly Communists in the west to raise this question into an art-form, to the point where the question of what was a human right and how to define it became a football between the ideological right represented by Heath, and the so-called moderates such as Schmidt and Mitterrand. Mikhail Andreyevich delighted in watching the various bourgeois politicians squirm over the question. But he also took serious note of how our comrades in the western Communist Parties reacted to the question: Suslov gauging their overall loyalty with how their leadership chose between our position and the bourgeois policy of their national governments.

It was characteristic that Suslov saw in the unsettled nationalities question of some of the western states an opportunity not just to meddle, but to place them on the defensive when they tried to attack our internal polices. Andropov and Kosygin did not approve of this, but by the time they realized what Suslov had done, the inherent difference and contradictions among the bourgeois governments were creating greater divides between them than there were between our position and the original western proposal on the question.

Nor did Suslov limit his sophistry to the question of human rights. He raised the question of a peaceful settlement of borders into a question of western intentions. While Suslov recognized that the Soviet Union could benefit from a treaty recognizing the peaceful settlement of borders, he also looked on it as a hostile ploy to provide a legal pre-text for driving a wedge between Moscow and the Soviet Republics.

Rather than put it in these terms though, Suslov instead exploited the divisions between Spain and Britain over Gibraltar, the Basque question in Spain and France, the Northern Irish question in Britain, and the ethnic question in Yugoslavia to forge as unlikely a coalition as Heath, Franco, Mitterrand and Marshall Tito all questioning the meaning of “negotiated borders” and “peaceful settlements.” He had started a similar argument over the ethnic divisions in Turkey to persuade President Koruturk to slow down the process, and then when Koruturk was replaced by the radical nationalist Turkes, the task became easier. Turkes opposed almost all international agreements.
It was on the early question of the European Security Conference that Suslov marked out a dogma of ideological purity, laying down the gauntlet to those who opposed his doctrinaire view. Andropov and Kosygin may have disagreed, but neither had sufficient support to oust Suslov over the question, which Mikhail Andreyevich had framed as a central question of Marxist-Leninist orthodoxy. In short, could the Soviet Union be a Socialist power if it bound itself to bourgeois standards that could lead to its dismemberment? In this way Suslov tied together ideology with nationalism in a way that made it difficult to separate the two, and won over a wide swath of the Party to his argument. Another reason that he prevailed on the question was the fact that Andropov may not have fully disagreed with Mikhail Andreyevich, and rather than give full support to Kosygin’s opposition, he may have danced in-between the camps, weakening Kosygin’s defense against Suslov’s assault.

As a result, the Conference on European Security proposal lingered through 1975 without resolution. The conflict situations in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the Portugal Revolution would only further undermine the process in the next year.
 
Potential problems on the US-Soviet diplomatic front ahead... Suslov is hardly a pragmatist. Hopefully Kosygin will get the GenSec post eventually.
 
Potential problems on the US-Soviet diplomatic front ahead... Suslov is hardly a pragmatist. Hopefully Kosygin will get the GenSec post eventually.

The foreshadowing indicates that one of Romanov/Ryzhkov/Kulikov take power eventually -- I don't know enough about Soviet politics to comment much on that, but what I've read would indicate that the USSR will move in a "Dengist" direction. Of course, that doesn't necessarily translate into a return of detente...

Also, given that Portugal is about to get fun, I should ask if the Carnation Revolution happened off-screen as scheduled, or has been delayed?
 

Thande

Donor
Another great update Drew.

I like how the Soviet leaders are so bemused by the idea of human rights. It almost sounds like a cartoonish alien villain scene from a John Ringo novel but according to David Owen, Gromyko at least actually was just like that.

(Owen also argued that Britain, West Germany, France and the USA all pushing unconnected programmes at the Soviets with different definitions of human rights actually helped, because it meant the Soviets couldn't dismiss everything all at once as Western propaganda in one fell swoop).

Suslov's fanaticism + Kosygin's economic reforms = trouble.
 
The foreshadowing indicates that one of Romanov/Ryzhkov/Kulikov take power eventually -- I don't know enough about Soviet politics to comment much on that, but what I've read would indicate that the USSR will move in a "Dengist" direction. Of course, that doesn't necessarily translate into a return of detente...

Two technocrats and a military strong man. Not Gorbachev (who is already dead in this TL), they will shake-up the next generation of Soviet leadership.

Also, given that Portugal is about to get fun, I should ask if the Carnation Revolution happened off-screen as scheduled, or has been delayed?

I did mention it as taking place in 1974 as in OTL. However, ITTL it keeps on going.
 
Another great update Drew.

I like how the Soviet leaders are so bemused by the idea of human rights. It almost sounds like a cartoonish alien villain scene from a John Ringo novel but according to David Owen, Gromyko at least actually was just like that.

(Owen also argued that Britain, West Germany, France and the USA all pushing unconnected programmes at the Soviets with different definitions of human rights actually helped, because it meant the Soviets couldn't dismiss everything all at once as Western propaganda in one fell swoop).

Suslov's fanaticism + Kosygin's economic reforms = trouble.

Thanks.

It's based on a real debate that took place in the Soviet leadership about what the term "human rights" meant, and how it could be used against the West. Andropov in particular disliked the term (as far as anyone can tell he genuinely believed there was no such thing, the State afforded rights), while Suslov's ideological arguments were as I have incorporated them into this TL, but now represent official policy as opposed to backroom dissent.

The difference was OTL with Brezhnev the leader, and with his personal desire to make history, and thus be perceived as a historic leader, the Conference process and SALT I and II went forward despite internal opposition. None of the others was in a position to challenge him, even after he had his stroke.

ITTL: SALT I occurred under Nixon and Brezhnev between 1969 and 1972, and Gavin and the collective leadership signed the joint communique on SALT I (which OTL Ford and Brezhnev did in Vladivostok in November 1974); but now SALT II and the Conference on European Security are slipping into might have beens.

Here's where the Arms Control process stands ITTL:




  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): 1968. - China's status remains unclear since its withdrawal from international affairs (Johnson, Wilson, de Gaulle, Brezhnev, Cho Enlai)




  • Interim Agreement Between The United States of America and The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Certain Measures With Respect to the Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. 1972 (Nixon - Brezhnev)


  • The Prevention of Nuclear War Agreement lapsed through 1973, finally signed in Vladivostok by Gavin and Gromyko (as Head of State) 1975 (carried through largely on the momentum of previous detente agreements) (Gavin-Gromyko)


  • Interim Agreement on quantitative limits on various nuclear weapons systems and banned the construction of new land-based ICBM launchers. Vladivostok 1975 (Gavin-Gromyko)

Further progress? Chances dimming.
 
Some thoughts on the Electoral College plans:
1) The Harvard plan makes the most sense and is the most straightforward.
2) The Neustadt Plan is probably screwed by two things: Gerrymandering and a funky what-if scenario. The former is pretty obvious, but let us consider the latter. Suppose that a Congressman is from a district that normally leans one way, but an election goes pear-shaped...'68 leaps to mind as a good case for this. You have a Southern Democrat from a part of Florida where the voting went Wallace-Nixon-Humphrey. Now, for this Congressman, voting for Wallace ain't a stretch, but Nixon is for whatever reason a bridge too far for him. What happens if you get to the House election and this Congressman simply says "I'll vote for George. I can do that. But to Hell with Dick Nixon, I just won't vote." It's not inconceivable, frankly...the voters who have an A-B-C preference all vote for A, resulting in C coming second. Also, I think a "judgment" issue would also come up if you had "an Agnew" in there somewhere.

A variation on Neustadt that could work would be to have Congressmen pledged on the first ballot but theoretically able to abstain (I don't think you could force Congressmen to vote, frankly...and George Wallace getting four guys not to vote for X has the same effect as getting two to switch from X to Y); to have a second ballot where they can vote at will; and then to do the runoff on the third ballot.
3) The Case Western plan is actually pretty smart, if perhaps a bit hard for people to think of what to do. Also, what happens if a legislature somehow fails to ballot (the would-be losers pull off some kind of filibuster)?
4) The ABA plan has three problems: First, the fact that ballot access is a state issue, and what happens if a candidate not appearing on the ballot in a given state makes the top two? It's happened three times in recent history that I can think of: TR was off the ballot in Oklahoma in 1912 (and Taft in CA, too), Truman was off in Alabama in 1948, and LBJ was off in Alabama in '64. So either a state is forced to take someone on their ballot (something that's been reserved to them up until now) or you get a "Russian election" in that state with only one candidate on the ballot in round two. Second, you have two national elections (always a negative). Finally, you have the issue of "Do we move Congressional elections to October? Hold them in November or December?" and consequent state election issues (almost all states sync their elections with national ones, and so the moving process would be a mess and would in some states' cases require constitutional amendments to move general election and primary dates...eight states have September primaries, and until they could sort that out you'd have some states stuck with two weeks to print ballots. So mark it down as a mess that probably couldn't take effect before 1980 at best, and likely 1984 to give states 2-3 years to reschedule things that are date-locked like that.
5) Dead for the aforementioned reasons.
 
Last edited:
Some thoughts on the Electoral College plans:
1) The Harvard plan makes the most sense and is the most straightforward.
2) The Neustadt Plan is probably screwed by two things: Gerrymandering and a funky what-if scenario. The former is pretty obvious, but let us consider the latter. Suppose that a Congressman is from a district that normally leans one way, but an election goes pear-shaped...'68 leaps to mind as a good case for this. You have a Southern Democrat from a part of Florida where the voting went Wallace-Nixon-Humphrey. Now, for this Congressman, voting for Wallace ain't a stretch, but Nixon is for whatever reason a bridge too far for him. What happens if you get to the House election and this Congressman simply says "I'll vote for George. I can do that. But to Hell with Dick Nixon, I just won't vote." It's not inconceivable, frankly...the voters who have an A-B-C preference all vote for A, resulting in C coming second. Also, I think a "judgment" issue would also come up if you had "an Agnew" in there somewhere.

A variation on Neustadt that could work would be to have Congressmen pledged on the first ballot but theoretically able to abstain (I don't think you could force Congressmen to vote, frankly...and George Wallace getting four guys not to vote for X has the same effect as getting two to switch from X to Y); to have a second ballot where they can vote at will; and then to do the runoff on the third ballot.
3) The Case Western plan is actually pretty smart, if perhaps a bit hard for people to think of what to do. Also, what happens if a legislature somehow fails to ballot (the would-be losers pull off some kind of filibuster)?
4) The ABA plan has three problems: First, the fact that ballot access is a state issue, and what happens if a candidate not appearing on the ballot in a given state makes the top two? It's happened three times in recent history that I can think of: TR was off the ballot in Oklahoma in 1912 (and Taft in CA, too), Truman was off in Alabama in 1948, and LBJ was off in Alabama in '64. So either a state is forced to take someone on their ballot (something that's been reserved to them up until now) or you get a "Russian election" in that state with only one candidate on the ballot in round two. Second, you have two national elections (always a negative). Finally, you have the issue of "Do we move Congressional elections to October? Hold them in November or December?" and consequent state election issues (almost all states sync their elections with national ones, and so the moving process would be a mess and would in some states' cases require constitutional amendments to move general election and primary dates...eight states have September primaries, and until they could sort that out you'd have some states stuck with two weeks to print ballots. So mark it down as a mess that probably couldn't take effect before 1980 at best, and likely 1984 to give states 2-3 years to reschedule things that are date-locked like that.
5) Dead for the aforementioned reasons.

This raises a question I forgot to ask: why isn't something like the Bayh-Cellar Amendment proposed? It was OTL.
 
This raises a question I forgot to ask: why isn't something like the Bayh-Cellar Amendment proposed? It was OTL.

Given that the POD is, for practical purposes, in 1972, I image the amendment was proposed exactly as OTL. ;)

Proposal #5 out of the Bayh Commission is effectively Bayh-Cellar reborn, though the fact that it failed once means it's unlikely to be tried again...
 
Family Jewels

From James M. Gavin A Call to Duty: A Memoir

The question of what to do about 1976 loomed large on the horizon, and from where I sat I could see some very dark clouds building on that horizon. For various reasons I thought the election of either Senator Ted Kennedy, Senator Birch Bayh or Governor Ronald Reagan as my successor would not be in the best interests of the nation. I did not view any of their ideological inclinations, as expressed in the policy alternatives they were either promoting or allowing to be associated with their name, as the proper direction for our country to go in.

By the beginning of March 1975 we were noticing the first signs of hope on the economic horizon. Although the steep rise in the price of oil had crippled our economy through much of 1974 and early 1975, that same rise in the oil price had stimulated domestic production. Working with the Congressional leadership, I managed to push through some incentives for domestic producers. One of my goals was to build a strategic reserve for our country, both for military and economic purposes. The second was to get our domestic production to a level where we could create a permanent two-tiered system with cheaper domestic oil and more expensive imported oil (through tariffs on the imported crude if necessary mixed with incentives to domestic producers). The Administration economists I consulted (and the private economists I had secretly reviewing their work) assured me that our policies could re-direct domestic demand to domestic sources, especially if we kept imported oil at a higher cost. At the same time we included a basket of incentives for producers to develop cost-effective synthetic fuels and bio-fuels such as Ethanol, which would benefit by supplying the domestic market. The catch was we had to maintain a firm regulatory hand over all of this until domestic production reached the necessary levels to sustain a domestic market which could then be de-regulated in a strategic manner.

At the same time the Administration was encouraging coal production alongside the development of more nuclear power production. Environmentalists have long condemned these policies. Coal was a pollutant, the argument went, and my Administration traded a clean environment for quick, dirty energy development. At the same time our nuclear policy created new dangers from radioactive fallout for a quick fix.

I reject both views. Yes, coal is dirty and not the ideal fuel, but in 1975 it was still abundant in our country and relatively easy to get at. Nuclear energy has its hazards, but these alone didn’t rise to the point that we should abandon nuclear power as a source. My own review of the technology in 1974, and my experience in the Pentagon twenty years before, had shown me that it could be developed safely, and that the United States had some of the best nuclear engineers in the world whose dedication was to safe and affordable nuclear development. Personally, after my review, I felt safer building nuclear reactors than I did flying or driving down a freeway in any American city. Thus I put what political capital I had behind the Nuclear Energy Bill of 1975, and Bill Scranton, who was in full agreement, put his all into it as well. It wouldn’t have gone through had it not been for the Vice President’s constant lobbying for it on the Hill.

Here’s a point that was lost on many of our critics in the ecology movement, but which was an important benefit. Putting our efforts into coal extraction created employment in mining communities. The nuclear projects created jobs across the spectrum, from high-end research to subsidiary construction work. A further side benefit was in the Nuclear Energy Bill itself (I had wanted to dub it the Scranton Act, but Bill was too self-effacing to accept the credit in this manner) were the provisions which committed the Federal government to funding the development of alternate energy sources such as wind, tidal and solar power. Originally put in to win the support of the ecology lobby in the Democratic Party, this provision enabled us to put more resources behind the research and development of alternatives to oil, coal and nuclear power – thus, by an irony few in the ecology movement seemed prepared to accept, we were creating the circumstances where their demands might be met, if not by us, then by some Administration in the future.

All of this, I knew was a thin edge that would pry the economy open over time. As demand for materials increased, and manufacturers began to hire to meet demand, and their energy costs lowered, we could begin to see an increase in overall spending, which would bring the economy back. This may sound very close to trickle down to some, and it was a more conservative approach than those who wanted us to go on a spending orgy of stimulus to create a second New Deal (we had in fact been priming the pump in 1974, though with less drama than FDR had done in 1933). My approach may have been more incremental, but it had the merit of being sustainable without bankrupting the federal treasury.

Senator Edward Kennedy was a second New Deal champion; he wanted to spend, and print more money to spend, and borrow to the rafters (the failed policy of 1973, but coming from the left this time). Senator Kennedy’s approach might have had the virtue of fixing some short-term pain, but at the cost of long-term responsibility. I have long been an advocate of the old saying that if you teach a man to fish then he will eat for a lifetime. By addressing the energy problem, we were looking at a way to put the economy back on its feet which in the long-term would not require huge infusions of tax dollars in repeated stimulus spending binges. That was the only way the United States was going to have a sustained recovery. Senator Kennedy’s policy ideas were all about solving the short-term pain, which was why I felt that I had to oppose his election to the Presidency. Further, I felt if that if he had a chance to implement his agenda from the White House, what little we could achieve by January 1977 would be wiped out by four years of a Kennedy presidency; which was a shame because I had admired his brothers, who were much more responsible managers of the public purse. Senator Birch Bayh, the other probable Democratic nominee, was, in my estimation and that of a number of other insightful observers, cut from the same cloth as Kennedy on that question.

Both men would, I believed, abdicate our international responsibilities in the morass of liberal second-guessing and retrenchment that had been going on in the Democratic Party. At the time it was fashionable in liberal circles to espouse a school of thought that argued that the United States should regard the Vietnam War as the last act of our superpower status. While neither Senator Kennedy nor Senator Bayh were friendly to Soviet interests, I thought the articulated program of the left to “stand America down by standing Europe and Asia up,” whose supporters both men were courting, was an ill-informed strategy, designed less for the realities of international relations than for domestic political purposes.

The danger remained that we could stand down too quickly, and encourage others, especially the Soviets, to press an advantage. I had met Mikhail Suslov, the new Soviet Communist Party General Secretary, in Vladivostok in February 1975, and there was a cold-hearted calculator. The Soviet specialists from the State Department and the CIA had more-or-less agreed in their briefings that if Suslov wasn’t an unreformed Stalinist, then he was the next thing too it. Certainly the man I met in Vladivostok had not shared Leonid Brezhnev’s human traits: Brezhnev could, for instance crack a joke and enter into real discussions with you as a human being and not an ideologue; Suslov lacked both these traits. Like the stern preacher, Suslov seemed to regard humor as some sort of sin in its own right – at least that was the impression he gave me. Nor did he seem to have the practical turn of mind I observed in Gromyko, Kosygin and Gromyko’s replacement as Foreign Minister, Valerian Zorin. In fact, Suslov went out of his way to remark to me on the fact that Helmut Schmidt had been an officer in Hitler’s Army, and that Francois Mitterrand became a Socialist only after he had been a supporter of Petain (which was in fact disputed). Ted Heath, according to Suslov, had been an executioner in the British Army: Suslov seemed to approve of this*. I began to wonder what he was saying about me to other world leaders. What connection any of that had to their current roles I didn’t see, but it gave an indication of the man’s mind-set, which seemed permanently set on finding enemies everywhere.

Matching-up a President Ted Kennedy or a President Birch Bayh, both concerned that their foreign policy would meet approval with a vocal domestic constituency arguing for retrenchment, with Suslov would, I felt, have been playing into the Soviet leader’s hands at the expense of our national security.

There was as much to be wary of in Governor Ronald Reagan’s unabashed conservatism. While I agreed in principle with his assertion that a program of deregulation would be a boon for our economy, (I have no argument with the notion that a economy functions best when the market is as free as possible) I did not see the next two to three years as the right time for it. Specifically, I did not think that the next few years would be a good time to begin a radical experiment in free market economics, not with our economy in a fragile state. First we had to solidify a recovery before we began hackling away at the regulatory framework which allowed us to direct support to those areas of the economy that needed it. Reagan, if taken at this word, would have brought in a radical change at a time when the system didn’t need any more shocks.

Some Reagan supporters had pointed out that while Reagan talked a tough conservative game as Governor of California, he had worked with that State’s legislature to produce what were more moderate, centrist, policies. I did not doubt that Governor Reagan had a firm grasp on politics as the art of the possible, and that his record in California showed him to be a wily politician as much as a conservative ideologue. However, he attracted around him acolytes who were far more ideological and far less practical than Reagan himself. I had to note that Paul Weyrich and Pat Buchanan had managed to overcome the negative fall out from their 1973 stints in the White House and had managed to attach themselves to the – as yet – undeclared Reagan campaign. Buchanan was writing speeches for Representative Phil Crane, the conservative candidate many saw as Reagan’s canary in the mineshaft. Since Crane was picking-up money and endorsements, it seemed likely Reagan would follow him in.

There was also the lesson of California to build on that point. Governor Barry Goldwater jr., had set him self up as the protégé of Reagan, and as the continuing legacy of his father, and set out to use his Governorship to prove that point. In his first four months in office he managed to put the executive and the legislature into a position of virtual deadlock as he pursued an ideologically driven agenda. I came to regret not having leant my support to Pat Brown’s son; if I had convinced even one hundred California voters to switch their votes the other way, then this problem wouldn’t have occurred. On the other hand Governor Goldwater’s antics in Sacramento could serve as an object lesson as to why American voters might not want a conservative ideologue in the White House.

Beyond economics though, I also found Reagan’s aggressive talk on foreign policy to be no better than the Kennedy-Bayh liberal approach. Governor Reagan, picking-up a theme from Barry Goldwater senior, stated his opposition to détente and to arms control agreements he termed “one-sided” and “pro-Soviet.” His was a policy of strength and dictating terms to the Soviet Union in what almost sounded like a foreign policy based on ultimatums. I did not think this would work with Suslov, and I believed if Governor Reagan were to try it, Suslov would push back, thus setting off a new cycle of East-West tension that could plunge us back into the darkest hours of the Cold War.

I did not agree with bending to accommodate Mikhail Suslov either, but I saw nothing to be gained by deliberately poking him in the nose. What I wanted to represent was a sustained détente approach, one backed by force if necessary, but one which sought to engage the Soviets in world affairs in a way which would draw them further into the framework of international law and working within the system. I held no starry-eyed dreams that this would melt away the Communist dictatorship, or that somehow we could spontaneously convert the Soviet leadership to western thinking. That was a multi-generational task, if it was even possible. Rather, in an age when the failure of policy could easily lead to global annihilation, I did not see a policy of confrontation in the pursuit of a nebulous ideological agenda as either wise or responsible.

The next step then was to make myself available to the parties to see which might consider me as a candidate. On the Democratic side I could enter into discussions with Clark Clifford, and through him the DNC Chair Bob Strauss, who I knew had his own reservations about his party’s likely nominees.

On the Republican side former New Hampshire Governor Walter R. Peterson had taken over as RNC Chair after Bob Dole’s defeat. Governor Peterson had inherited a demoralized party with serious financial problems. I did not know Peterson personally, but my own sources indicated that he was not entirely happy with a potential Reagan candidacy, and that one of his goals was to mobilize that sixty percent of Republicans who did not support Reagan into a coalition which would nominate a more centrist candidate: Senators Howard Baker and Charles Percy were at the top of that list.

My concern now was with which position would best place me to defeat both the potential Democratic nominees and Governor Reagan, should I chose to run in 1976, or alternatively whom I could back who would continue our recovery agenda and press forward with détente.




*- I never found the right moment to mention this delicate issue to Ted Heath, although I did discuss Suslov’s peculiar bent on our pasts with Helmut Schmidt, who was well aware of what Suslov said about him. Apparently, Suslov had brought it up directly with Schmidt, who had been equally direct with Suslov about it at the time – he was drafted and made the best of a bad situation. Schmidt did tell me that Suslov referred to me as “General Gavin” not “President Gavin” in speaking to him, and continued to do so despite Schmidt’s diplomatic efforts to correct him. He told me that he had the impression that the Soviets seemed to think my coming to office had been as a result of some sort of coup d’etat against my predecessor. Years later I did learn from Douglas Hurd that Heath had been in charge of one firing squad at the end of the War. Suslov had magnified this into some sort of sinister career in Heath’s personal background.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(from Henry Kissinger The October War and The Pursuit of Peace in the Middle East)

The Cypriot Crisis


Our intelligence over flights of Cyprus in the early spring of 1975 made it increasingly clear that we were facing a humanitarian crisis if the situation continued unabated. However, from a diplomatic standpoint, the United States along with much the rest of the western world was helpless because none of the parties involved were willing to enter into an honest dialogue with us over the issues.

Greece and Cyprus were both dominated by proto-fascist governments that clung to power by evoking nationalist zeal among their populations as a tool to fend-off their domestic political enemies. In Athens, the military junta had nearly been overthrown by student and worker protests in 1974, and only ferment over the Cyprus issue had given them a new lease on life, one they used to clamp down hard on dissent. On Cyprus itself the Samson lead junta was not recognized by any single country outside of Greece as a legitimate government, and it clung to the government in Athens for its lifeblood. Greece reciprocated with military support and by assisting the Cypriot leadership in bypassing the U.N. economic embargo that had been placed on the island.

Turkish nationalism was no less present on their side, along with a simmering frustration over what was happening to their ethnic brothers and sisters on the island. Turkey’s constitutional government had fallen over the failed Turkish invasion of 1974, which only increased the level of frustration among the population. To his credit President Fahri Koruturk tried to manage the growing tensions within his own country between the nationalist anti-Greek uproar and his nation’s commitment to the peacekeeping force in Syria. However, President Koruturk’s direct Presidential rule was not only questionable under the Turkish Constitution, but it had quickly progressed into an authoritarian regime. Koruturk came to increasingly rely on his military to keep order through martial law. This agitated his opponents further, leading to a volatile and explosive situation, one over which he eventually lost control.

The irony for Turkey was that having a controlling military presence in Syria, and thus being able to influence the outcome of the nation-building project on its southern border was an objective of Turkish foreign policy that would have been embraced by a Turkish government of just about any stripe. Under Secretary of State Joe Sisco, who had been given overall responsibility for the diplomatic side of the Syrian operation, and his staff of diplomats had noted Turkish foot dragging over the formation of a Syrian government, and their collusion with the Soviets in promoting what would be a weak, neutralist junta in Damascus. The Soviets, of course, wanted to reinstall a puppet state while the Turks wanted, at best, a weak, toothless Syria on their southern border.

Koruturk’s tragedy was that while he was making diplomatic gains for Turkey in its age-old rivalries with its Syrian and Soviet neighbours, the situation in Cyprus, over which he was powerless to act in a forceful manner because the military commitment to Syria precluded a new military action in Cyprus, was stirring-up the nationalist fires which would undermine him. His opponents and the Turkish public (largely propagandized by his nationalist opponents) seemed not to grasp this distinction (or disregarded it as unhelpful to their cause), and chose to interpret Koruturk’s lack of action over Cyprus as weakness.

Of our diplomatic efforts at mediation I can only say that not having any previous experience with ethnic conflict, we failed to understand that we had less influence on the parties in Cyprus than in the Middle East. The parties in the Middle East, though exploiting superpower rivalries, were at the same time constrained by them. In Cyprus, the adversaries accepted no such restraints. For each of them this was a local struggle, one rooted in a long history of strife between the two groups which predated the foundation of the United States, and which could only be resolved on their terms, not ours. The ethnic and religious nature of the conflict rendered it outside of the ordinary rules of give-and-take which are central to international crisis resolution: both Athens and Ankara insisted this was an internal matter into which the United States was meddling without appropriate cause or invitation. Compromise, or even the appearance of it, was a losing proposition politically for either side, so no compromise could be extracted from Greece or Turkey, and negotiations were a pointless exercise in frustration.

From our perspective, the outbreak of a conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece and Turkey would only complicate an already difficult strategic situation. To begin with, having Greece and Turkey on the verge of a war was a direct threat to the Eastern flank of NATO. We knew this was behind the Soviet support for the Turkish cause; Moscow’s policy was to tear Turkey out of NATO altogether and they saw this crisis as an opportunity to achieve just that.

The United States had three Army divisions plus support units in Syria which were in need of re-supply (along with the British, Spanish and French African troops), which was largely being accomplished from the Mediterranean, through the waters directly affected by the Cypriot crisis. The alternative was to have our supply line through Saudi Arabia and Jordan, which would entail a long land bridge through the desert, something that our generals found unappealing. The remaining alternative was to re-supply through Israel which while practical from a logistical point of view, and something we could expect the Israelis to co-operate with, was fraught with undesirable political consequences in the rest of the Middle East.

Added to this was the deteriorating situation in Lebanon, which was threatening to explode into a civil conflict on the doorstep of our peacekeeping force just across the border in Syria.

President Gavin, Secretary Symington and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Robert Cushman reviewed the option of a preventive armed intervention into Cyprus, preferably with UN sanction, in order to secure our flank and defuse the situation. Caspar Weinberger floated this idea with Congressional leaders, and received an extremely negative response. None of the Congressional leaders consulted felt that they could draw together a majority to support another military intervention, and some believed any attempt by the White House to push for it might re-open debate over a resolution for force the President to withdraw our forces from Syria, and possibly Vietnam and Cambodia as well. The matter was a domestic political tinderbox waiting for something to ignite it, and another proposed foreign engagement of our forces could well set it off.

With that message in mind we could only look on, and resort to our limited diplomatic tools. The British, who were the third party to the 1959 agreement between the UK, Greece and Turkey which had originally set-up an independent Cypriot State, and retained two airbases and a naval base on the island. They had been trying all through the crisis to get a serious dialogue started. Ted Heath had personally appealed to General Dimitrios Ioannidis in Athens and President Koruturk in Ankara to send their representatives to Geneva or London to meet with Foreign Secretary Douglas-Home in order to reach a settlement. Neither leader responded. General Ioannidis refused to receive any foreign envoys claiming in a show of legalistic circumstance that he held no official office in the government and therefore could not negotiate with foreign representatives. President Phaedon Gizikis, who was Ioannidis’ puppet, would only refer the matter to the General, thus trapping the question in a vicious circle of evasion and lack of accountability.

In Ankara President Koruturk was willing to negotiate, provided the Greeks gave a concession as a pre-condition to talks; that was the setting up of Turkish security zones in majority Turkish areas on the island, to be placed under the control of Turkish troops, a condition which Athens wouldn’t even consider, since it amounted to letting the Turks gain before talks what they couldn’t do with military force.

Archbishop Makarios, the overthrown President of Cyprus, meanwhile did his best to exploit our political difficulties for his cause. The son of shepherd, he had risen to become the highest-ranking priest on Cyprus as well as its President – a legacy of the Greek Orthodox clergy’s historic claim to both secular and religious leadership. Highly intelligent, unflappable, always well prepared, as complex in his tactics as he was single minded in the pursuit of his objectives, Makarios exuded authority. His ecclesiastical garb and utter self-assurance were somewhat vitiated by his shrewd, watchful eyes which seemed to be calculating the possibilities of gaining an edge over an interlocutor.

While in the United States Makarios engaged in a speaking tour during which he portrayed himself as the only democratically elected leader in the region (a point on which he was technically correct – President Koruturk had been legally elected by the Turkish parliament, but had suspended his parliament, so his rule was questionable; Makarios had been elected directly by the Greek population of Cyprus) and began to solicit aid from assorted interests groups to put pressure on the Administration to restore him to office. Makarios did not have much luck among the Greek-American community, which for some reason was divided over his appeal. Some more liberal members of the community such as Massachusetts Lieutenant Governor Michael Dukakis and Representative Paul Tsongas supported him, while millionaire Tom Pappas and Eugene Rossides of the American Hellenic Institute lead a more influential opposition to Makarios’ restoration in their community. Even Spiro Agnew got in on the act, supporting the AHI position on the question.

However, after the sacking of the Greek Orthodox Patriarch’s residence in Istanbul, and other anti-Christian acts in Turkey, the Archbishop was picking up a vocal following from many protestant religious organizations that focused on the twin themes of his being a democratically elected leader and a defender of the faith. Together with a surprising array of liberal interest groups – who focused exclusively on the Archbishop’s democratic legitimacy – they added to the pressure for the Gavin Administration to restore the Archbishop as the President of Cyprus.

I became interested in restoring Makarios as an interim step to cooling-off the immediate crisis. I thought that a military move on our part to place the Archbishop back in the presidential palace, together with a U.N. guarantee for Turkish safe havens, support for which I believed we could extract from Makarios at this point, would allow all sides to pull back. Our troop commitment wouldn’t be long; as I envisioned it we would turn the island over to a U.N. peacekeeping force which could act as a barrier between the two populations. With the immediate demands of the Turks for the security of their fellow nationals met, and Greek attempts to annex Cyprus thwarted by Makarios’ return to power (he opposed the Enosis – or union between Greece and Cyprus then being proposed by both the Athens and Greek Cypriot Juntas) we could set the stage for fostering a broader dialogue which could develop a more permanent solution.

The Director of Central Intelligence, General Daniel Graham, argued against this approach. According to the CIA, the junta in Greece informed us that a restoration of Makarios - who was becoming a nationalist hero on the mainland - would not be welcomed by Athens. From what we could tell General Ioannidis had determined that the archbishop might pose a danger to his regime’s grip on power as an alternate focus for the nationalist sentiment that was keeping them in power. We couldn’t tell if this was a legitimate concern or a case of paranoia.

I tried to counter that if we were to retain any credibility in the eyes of the Turks, we could not appear to be too solicitous to the demands of the Greek Generals. After all, I reminded the principals at various meetings, they were on very thin ice with their own people and at some point that regime would fall; placating them was a losing proposition. If we could offer something positive to President Koruturk, then we might be able to shore-up his position, which did affect our long-term interests and those of NATO.

I could see that that point intrigued President Gavin; until General Graham managed to persuade Joint Chiefs Chairman General Robert Cushman and Chief of Naval Operations Admiral James L. Holloway to stand with him against exercising our military in Cyprus.

From the meeting of March 12, 1975 when this was discussed with the President:

Graham: We can’t be sure that the U.N. will stand behind this can we?

Phillip Habib (U.N. Ambassador): Probably not. The Soviets will veto in the Security Council unless we give them a role.

Kissinger: I think they might in the initial state, but if we restore a democratically elected leader, and then call for U.N. troops, especially if we call on them to protect the Turkish enclaves and bring to a halt the ethnic violence, we can undercut Soviet opposition by making them look bad in with many of their Middle Eastern allies.

Admiral Holloway: It’s a logistical question. While this problem in the rear of our Syrian force is causing us a problem, we would need to find the assets to do both. We are spread pretty thin right now. A force on Cyprus will need a separate support hub to the one in Syria.

General Cushman: We would have to find the troops, perhaps call-up more reservists, or revert to the draft.

Graham: The Turks tried it last summer; it turned into a military debacle, Mr. President.

General Louis H. Williams (Marine Corps Commandant): With due respect, the Turkish force was under strength and lacking in the necessary expertise in amphibious warfare. Executed with sufficient force, this is in principle no harder than any of our island campaigns in the Pacific during World War II. The Marines could definitely light the way, Mr. President.

(From the looks he received, it became apparent that General Williams was not signing from the approved Pentagon songbook on this issue).

Cushman (himself a Marine General): I for one have absolute faith in our Marines to do the job, sir. That’s not what’s at question. Instead, we have to look at the long-term commitment.

Graham: (Under Secretary Joe) Sisco can’t get much from the Turks on this; there’s zero co-operation from their side. How do we know that if we land a force to restore the ethnic Greek President of Cyprus, the Turks won’t see that as the United States taking sides, no matter what we do? To be frank, Mr. President, we are already experiencing that problem in Syria. Do we want to take on the potential of a guerrilla war in Cyprus? That could be putting us back to Da Nang in 1965 all over again.

Secretary of Defense Stuart Symington: The Turks are not the North Vietnamese. Surely they can be made to see reason in all of this.

President Gavin: Phil, what do you think our chances are of selling this at the U.N.? Could we put together a U.N. force as part of a pro-Makarios move?

Habib: The Soviets will demand some part in it, as the price of not blocking the initiative.

Kissinger: That’s the short view, isn’t it Phil? I mean, the Soviets are busy trying to make nice with the Turks, and the Greek dictatorship has very little international support. On the other hand if we can get a number of the Islamic states to support in principle a move to protect a Muslim population, won’t the Soviets be under pressure to sign-on. I mean they aren’t going to support the Greek Junta, aren’t they?

Graham: Are we seriously going to allow the Soviets a foothold in Cyprus? We’ve already let them back into Syria, and they proven to be disruptive there? I’m sure, if the Russians see a way into Cyprus, they’ll line-up Iraq, South Yemen and Libya behind this, and they’ll use that to push their way in, directly or through surrogates. And how do we think Israel will react if Iraqi or Libyan agents can set-up shop in their rear in Cyprus? Aren’t we kicking over the anthill here?

Kissinger: The anthill has already been kicked over, Director Graham. The question is how do we put it right?

Symington: I think the real issue here, Mr. President, is that we have a democratically elected leader in an area where there isn’t much democracy, but to put him back in place we either act alone – which involves a higher level of military commitment to the project than we are presently willing to bear – or we open-up a U.N. mission to potential meddling by the Soviets.

President: As usual Stu, you’ve summed-up our dilemma and made me feel like I’m sitting on two very sharp horns. There’s a lot to consider here, so I want a study done on how we can do this, and what forces will be involved. Phil, sound out the major powers at the U.N.. See what’s possible, and where the Soviets will come down on this. I understand your reservations Dan, and each of yours (addressing the Joint Chiefs). But the fact is we can’t let this fester.

Within twenty-four hours the Junta in Athens denounced a restoration of Makarios, which reinforced in my mind that Graham had arranged for them to learn the substance of our meeting. Unhelpfully, the Turkish government announced that they too would oppose Makarios’ return. To the best of my knowledge, that was unsolicited by any of us.

While we were debating our options, the President decided there were measures short of a direct military intervention in Cyprus which he could take that would help to manage this situation, and which would leave us appearing even handed. He ordered our naval forces to enforce the U.N. embargo on Cyprus by obstructing, as much as was possible, the transit of goods and personnel between Cyprus and the Greek mainland. We didn’t use the word, but we were imposing a blockade on Cyprus.

Our intelligence over flights had noted the construction of large concentration camps on the island. Special Forces reconnaissance teams inserted on Cyprus confirmed their existence. Since the camps were in the building stage, we instructed our Special Forces teams to delay their construction by acts of sabotage. This proved to be a very dangerous task for the solders involved, as they were caught between the Cypriot and Greek Army on the one hand, and Turkish guerrillas on the other, who were trying to accomplish the same thing.

Meanwhile, our carrier based air combat control planes and Air Force AWACS control aircraft had detected regular flights going at night between the Turkish mainland and Cyprus. We knew this to be the way in which the Turks were inserting supplies and reinforcements to the Cypriot-Turkish guerrilla forces. President Gavin and Secretary Symington both reasoned that this was prolonging the conflict, as re-supply kept the guerrilla force in the fight. From Ankara’s perspective as long as they could keep the guerrillas equipped and re-supplied, there was a good chance they would wear down the Greek forces, enough to compel the Greeks to seek terms.

President Gavin ordered our combat aircraft to harass these nightly re-supply flights, without actually precipitating an incident by actually shooting one down. Rather, the President wanted the Turks to be in no doubt that we knew what they were doing, and that we had the capability to slow it down and stop it if necessary. If we could lessen the chance of a guerrilla victory, we thought that might make Ankara more pliable. It might have worked if President Koruturk, or another reasonable figure had remained in control of the Greek government.

However, Koruturk fell to a nationalist alliance junta formed between the nationalist fanatic Alparsan Turkes, who was himself a Turkish Cypriot and thus quite close to the conflict, and General Kenan Evren, who provided the military muscle behind Turkes’ government. From that point on compromise was impossible and the chances of a direct conflict between Turkey and Greece rose to near certainty.


The Church and Pike Committees


On December 22, 1974 Washington awoke to a new crisis when The New York Times headlined a story by its investigative reporter, Seymour “Sy” Hersh: “Huge CIA Operation Reported in U.S. Against Anti-War Forces, Other Dissidents in Nixon Years.” The White House had no warning. CIA Director Daniel Graham proclaimed ignorance of how Hersh got the story. Hersh claimed that he had “a high level source” who provided the information, but he refused to identify who that was. Though the headline implied otherwise, the substance of the article, in fact, related to events which had taken place in previous administrations, primarily that of Lyndon Johnson. The initial revelations concerned investigations Johnson had ordered into charges that American Vietnam dissidents were being funded from abroad. To the extent that the assignment involved domestic intelligence gathering, it would have been prohibited by the Central Intelligence Agency’s congressional charter.

The first I heard of it was when I read the article in The Times. President Gavin, then at Camp David for the Christmas holidays, learned of it the same way (his son-in-law reportedly pointed it out to the President) and he was livid over the revelation. After a tense phone call with Director Graham, he ordered the CIA Director to identify Hersh’s source, while at the same time he wanted Graham to investigate the substance of Hersh’s allegations to determine if there was any truth to them. We were all about to learn that there was.

As we began to piece the matter together we learned that in May 1973 then newly installed Director Graham had found himself blindsided by the revelation that the CIA had given some assistance to E. Howard Hunt, who was investigating the leak of the Pentagon Papers for President Nixon. On May 9 Graham requested from each CIA department a report of any of its activities even remotely related to Watergate. Graham turned the task of co-ordinating this exercise over to William Colby, who had recently been appointed Executive Director of the CIA, after several years of directing covert paramilitary programs in South Vietnam. On his own initiative Colby extended that request to include any activity that might be construed as outside the CIA charter or be otherwise questionable.

A grand total of 693 pages of alleged transgressions covering a quarter century were submitted to Colby’s office. They were distilled into a memorandum of some seventy pages labelled “the family jewels” by someone with a mordant sense of humor. The overwhelming majority referred to allegations prior to the Nixon Administration; Gavin, of course, was not even in office when the list was put together. Such a compilation was dynamite. There was no possibility that it would not leak; the only open question was when. That the “family jewels” did not become public for fifteen months is far more astonishing than that they finally did.

William Colby locked the report in his safe – claiming Director Graham ordered him to do so and sternly cautioned him against ever discussing its contents with anyone. Graham for his part claimed that he was never shown the “family jewels” and that instead he was given a report that focused mainly on Johnson era counter protest intelligence gathering activities. He flatly denied telling Colby to lock a report (which he claimed he never knew of) in his safe. Neither man would budge from their contradictory version of these events.

Apparently Hersh learned of the “family jewel” list from one of his sources and confronted Colby on the matter. In December 1974 Colby gave him a long anonymous source interview in which he confirmed the lists existence to the reporter, although he didn’t detail what was in it beyond the domestic counterintelligence activities of the CIA in the 1960’s, which formed the basis for Hersh’s first report.

In the post-Agnew, Nixon trial environment, the revelation that such a list existed was like the effect of a burning match in a gasoline depot. Very soon everyone wanted to know what the “family jewels” were, not least President Gavin.

Colby (who had yet to be revealed as Hersh’s source) briefed us at Camp David (to where I had been summoned from my own holiday retreat in Vail, Colorado). I listened to Colby’s account with a sinking feeling. Even in normal times a memorandum such as the “family jewels” would have led to an investigation. But early 1975 could not be considered normal times; two Presidents had been brought down over illegalities in the previous two years, and now a third – and is it turned out a fourth – was implicated in potentially even greater transgressions. President Gavin was the one left holding the bag by his predecessors when it all came out, just as I would become the whipping boy.

It soon became clear that the charge of domestic intelligence gathering had been merely the opening shot. The “family jewels” alleged as well assassination plots against foreign leaders during the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations, and touched on every aspect of covert and paramilitary activities conducted by the American government over a twenty-five year period. An investigation would find it difficult to insulate covert intelligence activities undertaken in support of the nation’s foreign policy from transgressions in need of being remedied and punished.

More than anything, it was Colby’s revelation to Hersh that there was a compiled list of alleged misdeeds being kept secret which put the blood in the water; said water already having been stirred-up over another intelligence related investigation. Hersh’s article had capped an assault on the intelligence community that had been building for months. CIA covert activities in Chile had precipitated a congressional inquiry headed by Senator Frank Church. Four Administrations of both parties – Kennedy’s, Johnson’s, Nixon’s, and Agnew’s – convinced that Salvador Allende Gossens, the standard bearer of the combined Socialists and Communists in the 1964 and 1970 elections, would establish a Cuba-style Communist dictatorship if elected, had approved covert support for democratic Chilean parties. The impact of an Allende victory on surrounding countries, each of which was facing various forms of radical pressures of its own, was judged to be extremely inimical to American national interests. By a retroactive imposition of the mood of the 1970s on these Cold War perceptions of the 1960’s, these covert activities, designed to enable a democratic parties and a free press to survive, were interpreted as gratuitous interference in Chile’s domestic affairs.

Unfortunately two anti-Allende intrigues within the Chilean military, unprompted by the United States, had lead to two high profile murders – that of the Chief of the Chilean Armed Forces, General Rene Schneider in a botched kidnapping/coup attempt in 1970, and that of Allende himself in the 1973 coup which installed the Pinochet government. The fact that the United States government had no direct involvement in either of these deaths was a point lost on critics who were probing through the ashes seeking the elusive proof of our direct complicity: worse they assumed our denials of any such involvement, and claims of national security to protect our sources, were themselves proof that we covering something. When the “family jewels” were revealed, and it became known that Colby’s report contained information on assassination programs, those critics felt that their suspicions had been vindicated. Church quickly expanded his probe of Chilean matters to encompass all of our covert intelligence activities.

Though the charge at hand was the misuse of the CIA, the real target of the attack was the substance of American foreign policy. Assaulting the CIA turned into a surrogate for reducing the country’s international role. Senator Church described the Chilean operation, designed to preserve democracy in Chile, as a symbol of a runaway White House engaged in unnecessary foreign policy measures. That four Presidents – two Democrats and two Republicans – had agreed that an Allende victory threatened vital American interests was viewed as an aberration rather than an expression of bipartisan consensus. Now, “the family jewels”– by the very sinister sound of their nickname if for no other reason – gave further impetus to this runaway Congressional urge to poke into every corner of our intelligence history in search of scalps to hang from their committee dais like so many trophies.

The outcome was to be the formation of the Church Committee (the United States Senate Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations with Respect to Intelligence Activities) and the Pike Committee (the United States House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence), both of which sought to probe “the family jewels” and the intelligence community for all of the skeletons they could find. In the process they tried to wrestle control for the conduct of American foreign policy from the White House to the Congress, though luckily they failed in this objective, but not without causing a great deal of damage to our foreign policy and American prestige in the international community.

The President briefly considered forming a Presidential commission of inquiry as well; he was being lobbied to do so by some Congressional members, most notably Minority leader Gerald Ford, who urged Gavin to set-up an independent commission of inquiry on the model of the Warren Commission which had investigated President Kennedy’s assassination (and on which Ford had served). I believe Ford’s motivation was to provide political cover for himself. As a leading member of the House Appropriations and Government Oversight Committee, he had been briefed on some of these activities over the years (thus demolishing the critics charge that the “rouge CIA” had acted outside of Congressional oversight) and given his approval. There were others in Ford’s boat, notably Speaker Albert and Senator John Stennis, both of whom had also approved of various covert activities with the same reasoning as successive Administrations. Worried that their own political careers could be swept under in this tide, they hoped a Presidential commission could provide a measure of control to the process.

However, things had already gone too far. Gavin could see that with his four immediate predecessors all under the spotlight, he could not tie his Presidency to what might even remotely resemble an attempt at a cover-up or an attempt to manage the release of information. As with any pressure to pardon Nixon, Gavin felt that if he acted in a way that could be seen as trying to soft-peddle or hide his predecessors’ activities, then his own Administration – resting on a fragile legitimacy as it was – could just as quickly be swept under. The restriction frustrated the President, especially when the Pike Committee became reckless in its handling of secrets, but he had to walk a very fine line in all of this. For that reason he decided against a separate Presidential commission while the Church and Pike Committee hearings were going on.

Despite the proclamation of Senator Frank Church that his committee was going after “a rogue elephant CIA” and the reckless charges of committee member Senator Walter Mondale that the intelligence community were “those bastards in Washington” the Church Committee acted, on the whole, responsibly. It adopted a procedure for handling classified documents that gave the originating agency the right to excise particularly sensitive sentences or portions of documents. This eased, but did not solve, the problem of leaks of sensitive information, many times out of the context of the originating document or study. But at least, the Senators on the Church Committee acted like responsible leaders.

It was different with the investigation of the House of Representatives. Behind the label of “intelligence investigation” it undertook to second-guess foreign policy decisions by pretending to examine the extent to which intelligence affected them. The first act of the House committee was to depose its own chairman, Lucien Nedzi, because he had been briefed about “the family jewels” by Colby and never informed the committee. Nedzi was replaced by Representative Otis Pike for the purposes of the intelligence investigation.

The Pike Committee refused to abide by the very flexible rules worked out between the Church Committee and the executive branch. Staff members without experience in dealing with classified documents and with no background in security procedures were now handling some 75,000 classified documents made available to them by Colby and Graham. More than the Church Committee, which is often blamed for undermining our intelligence capability, it was the Pike Committee that represented the greatest danger to our intelligence security.

It was into this environment, with the intelligence investigations imposed upon the uncertainties of our Syrian policy, and with the Eastern Mediterranean on the verge of exploding into another conflict, that I faced my confirmation hearings for the office of Secretary of State. Unwittingly, I had stepped squarely into the bull’s eye for these competing tensions.

Before leaving the subject, I want to briefly reflect on why William Colby, a career CIA man with an impeccable professional record up until 1974, would endanger that, and the CIA, by talking to Hersh in the first place, and then being so open in his testimony with the investigating committees (something which vexed all of us at the time and lead Director Graham to fire him).

Two explanations for Colby’s conduct have been advanced. The first view has been put forth by General Vernon Walters, my trusted friend (and the President’s) and Graham’s deputy during this period. Walters argues that Colby came to believe that a fundamental shift in the Washington power balance had made Congress so dominant that the only way to preserve the CIA was to open its secrets to congressional committees. According to Walters’ theory, Colby in effect threw the CIA on the mercy of Congress.

The Second frequently heard explanation is that, somewhere along the way, Colby had developed second thoughts about his chosen profession. The way in which the Cold War was being pursued may have come to be seen by him as weakening the moral fabric of American society. If that was indeed his premise, it may well be that Colby was seeking to purify his country by cooperating with the strategies of the protest movement. In these terms, weakening his own service, which Colby had served loyally for much of his adult life, became a necessary sacrifice which he pursued with the same single-mindedness he had displayed as a combatant in World War II.

In his memoirs, Colby justified his conduct as a constitutional duty:

“My strategy quite simply had been guided by the Constitution and to apply its principles. That meant that I had to cooperate with the investigations and educate the Congress, press, and public as well as I could…”


-----------------------------------------------------------------------



(From Dr. Newt Gingrich Patriot Soldier: General Daniel O. Graham and the Safeguarding of the CIA in the 1970’s)

Dr. Kissinger’s wordy analysis seeks to excuse Colby’s conduct on two mutually exclusive grounds. One has it that Colby acted as he did after much soul searching about the contamination of America’s moral clarity by covert operations, using the Church and Pike Committee’s as his confessors, before which he could purge himself and his agency of all the so-called sins of the previous quarter century. If that was the reason then, as any priest would point out, Colby’s confession, being selective (the “Family Jewels” left much out) and not a full purge of his and the agency’s collective sins, it could not have the intended absolving powers: Bill Colby, a practicing Roman Catholic would have understood that theological point.

The other argument has a hard-headed Colby (much more fitting to the kind of hard hitting, no nonsense CIA operator that Colby had been throughout his career) making a realpolitik decision to, as Kissinger puts it, “Colby in effect threw the CIA on the mercy of Congress.” This we are told was the result of some personal inner assessment that the Congress was getting the better of the Administration in a power struggle, and Colby wanted to place himself and the CIA on the winning team.

So which is it? Was Colby a penitent or a consummate navigator of the political winds?

Given the confession was incomplete, we can dismiss the former and could accept the latter, if we are to hold to the idea that Colby was an independent actor in all of it. Two decades of analysis have looked at the motives of Colby, James Gavin, Henry Kissinger, Frank Church and Otis Pike in all of this. Theories are advanced about how each might have been in cahoots with Colby. But the role of another figure remains unexamined in all this, and that is Colby’s immediate boss, then CIA Director Daniel Graham.

Certainly Director Graham would have seen the struggle between the Congressional Committees and the White House as a threat to the CIA. But would he have thrown the “family jewels” on the mercy of the Congress in order to feed some red meat to the lions? Wouldn’t this run counter to the covert ethos of the Agency, and the requirement that the Director keep its secrets at all costs?

A CIA Director would only have broken the silence if he saw that his agency’s survival was at risk, and if he thought his President couldn’t protect him. Instead he would act to preserve the long-term interests of his agency, even if that meant some short-term pain. And to be clear, if Frank Church, Otis Pike and Walter Mondale had had their way, the CIA would have been – in the terms of President’s Kennedy’s iconic threat which represented the true liberal attitude about the agency – “torn into a million pieces.” Director Daniel Graham knew President Gavin was in no political position to protect him, so he chose to manage the risks in a way which would prevented that.

To the end of his life Bill Colby maintained that in May 1973 General Daniel O. Graham, then newly appointed by President Agnew as the Director of Central Intelligence, ordered him to lock the so-called “family jewels” report in his safe and forget about it. Shortly before his death, Colby alleged that Graham had ordered him to confirm to Hersh that the file existed, and that what he had done in giving an interview to Hersh in December 1974 was exactly what Graham wanted him to do.

Director Graham has been equally as adamant that Colby never showed him the seventy-page report, or any abstract from it, and that since he knew of no such report, he could not have given Colby any order to talk to Hersh about it. Either Graham is lying or Colby is; it is not credible that Graham would have seen a report this explosive, even with its contents accurately summarized in an abstract, and not remembered it. If he did, then his very mental capability has to be called into question, and there is no evidence that he suffered from that sort of memory loss in 1975, or at any point in his life. To believe Graham at face value, we must assume Colby lied about what he said about these events, or prepared a misleading extract of the report, which amounts to the same thing.

If we accept the proposition that Graham ordered the report filed away in Colby’s safe in May 1973, that action entirely fits the political conditions of the time. In May 1973 the Agnew White House would not welcome the “family jewels” report,” mainly on ideological grounds, but also because President Agnew was then trying to distance himself from former President Nixon’s growing Watergate problem. At the time there was no congressional investigation or pressure on the CIA, and Director Graham had no motive to blacken his agency.

So, then we can ask why he ordered it released in 1974. What had changed? In fact a lot, not least of which was the political situation in Washington.

In early 1975 Senators Edward Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey were considered in the group of front-runners for the Democratic Party presidential nomination. The “family jewels” had the names of John and Robert Kennedy all over them, especially in respect to CIA operations to assassinate Fidel Castro, Patrice Lumumba, Rafael Trujillo and Ngo Dinh Diem between 1961 and 1963. These revelation coming about in 1975 had the effect of dragging the Kennedy name through the mud once more, just as Senator Edward Kennedy was rubbing-off the worst of the taint from his own Chappaquiddick scandal and rebuilding his political credibility.

The revelations about illegal CIA domestic activity during the Johnson Administration couldn’t help but focus in on Johnson’s Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, and what role, if any, he had played in the whole matter. (And if he didn’t, that point undermined Humphrey’s argument that he was seasoned and had executive experience – it showed him up as the ineffectual second banana that he was in that administration.)

But on the whole, and this is the critical point, the “family jewels” deflated the smugness of the Democratic investigators because the majority of the illegalities discussed had been ordered by Democrat presidents pursuing a liberal internationalist agenda. Neither Daniel Graham nor James Gavin had been in office when these occurred. Bill Colby was at the time a foot soldier and not a general in the CIA, and so not directly implicated either. But the men who were, from Allen Dulles to Richard Helms, the ones whom Presidents Kennedy and Johnson had charged with transforming their internationalist vision into covert policy. What the “jewels” exposed was the underlying rotten slipstream that exposed the truly duplicitous nature of the New Frontier and the Great Society, both of which had promised victory and prosperity, but had failed to deliver because of the inherent contradiction in fighting a war in secret for liberal, nation building objectives.

To be sure, Director Graham did not recklessly let the secrets out just to cast shadows on the Democratic Presidents who had ordered so much of the covert mayhem – there were other ways to achieve that. But he did so because showing-up their hypocrisies was the best way forward in purging the CIA of its dark past and re-shaping it for future struggles, and of holding it together during the Congressional onslaught. In short the liberals could hardly dismember the CIA if their own heroes were the ones responsible for the abuses they accused the agency of.

Liberals often condemn this argument on the grounds that Graham damaged Nixon as well, since the “family jewels” included unsavoury actions by that Republican Administration in Chile. It is true that Graham viewed Kissinger as an impediment, and the whole policy of détente as wrong headed. It is not clear that he specifically set out to damage Kissinger, rather that was just part of the package. But it what the revelations over Chile did help to point out was that, like the whole covert program through the sixties, attempting to achieve victory on the sly was a doomed policy. The revelations about the Chilean actions underlined that this was not just a Democrat failing; it was a failing of the entire internationalist détente oriented mindset and its approach to the Cold War.

By enduring short-term pain for the CIA, Director Graham cleared the way for a new policy of direct confrontation and opposition, no more skulking in the shadows, which should have been the policy that brought the rotten Soviet edifice crashing down.


---------------------------------------------------------------------

(From Dr. Barack H. Obama Reaping the Whirlwind: A Re-assessment of The Central Intelligence Agency in the Cold War)

In lauding Director Graham’s so-called patriotic and visionary impulse, Gingrich inadvertently highlights the nakedly partisan politics which actually lay behind Director Graham’s decision in ordering William Colby to make the contents of the “family jewels” report known.

In examining Daniel O. Graham’s associations thorough the 1970’s, we find that the former senior DIA officer and Director of Central Intelligence remained close to Paul Nitze, who at the time was out of government and running his Committee on the Present Danger lobby group, using it to mobilize conservative support for the presidential campaign of former Governor Ronald Reagan of California. Indeed, when Director Graham was finally relieved of his office, he too would become a Reagan campaign advisor, and an active member of Nitze’s lobby.

Seen in this light, whether Colby was directly ordered to reveal the report to Hersh, or whether he was manoeuvred into it (either through political or personal guilt factors) the timing of the release politically damaged Ted Kennedy, Humphrey, the Nixonites in the Republican Party, and threatened to damage the Gavin Administration as well.

By contrast Governor Reagan was left politically undamaged by all of this, as was Senator Birch Bayh, another leading contender with Ted Kennedy and Humphrey for the Democratic nomination. It can’t help but escape notice that among Reagan’s core supporters at the time, Birch Bayh was considered the softest target for Reagan to go up against in the 1976 Presidential election.

The sensation from the revelations did go a long way to forcing Henry Kissinger out of the Gavin Administration, a serious blow to President Gavin at a perilous time. Given that Kissinger was often a thorn in Graham’s side – and was seen in the same way by Colby – the two men had common ground in leaking this material at a time when it could undermine Kissinger’s nomination as Secretary of State.

In discussing the 1975 crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, Kissinger quickly skips over the divisions within the Greek-American community over support for Makarios. He deliberately downplays the fact that many influential Greek-Americans, including Spiro Agnew, were in fact agents of the Greek Junta itself, and were, like the Junta, opposed to Makarios. Tom Pappas, a Greek American business magnate, political fixer and friend of the CIA, had raised considerable sums of money for the Nixon-Agnew ticket in 1968 and 1972, ostensibly from the Greek-American community. In fact, as subsequent investigation of the money trail would reveal, much of the money had come from offshore, laundered through the KYP, the Greek intelligence service.

On March 7, 1973, Pappas visited the White House where he had a private meeting with President Agnew, the exact nature of which has never been revealed. There has been some speculation that Pappas was arranging hush money for the Watergate burglars, although Spiro Agnew was indifferent to their fate. More than likely he was discussing aid to the Greek Junta – possibly in the context of fund raising for Agnew – and acting as a go between for the Greek junta and its most powerful Greek-American supporter.

For perspective we must keep in mind that the CIA as an institution had invested much of its stock in the Junta leadership in Athens. The CIA station chief there enjoyed better and more frequent access to the Junta leadership than the United States Ambassador, and his mansion rivalled that of the Ambassador. From 1967 through to 1975 it could be said that the CIA, and not the State Department, controlled U.S. relations with Greece, and these were all directed through the prism of the Cold War. The CIA came to equate any risk to the Greek Junta as an institutional challenge to its own role.

By March 1975 Archbishop Makarios was creating trouble for the Junta in the United States by trying to get himself re-instated as President of Cyprus. Kissinger added to that by broadly supporting this initiative as a way to defuse the crisis between Greece and Turkey; although he himself admitted it was an imperfect solution. The officers who ran the Greek Junta had an abiding hatred for Makarios, and under no circumstances did they wish to see him returned at the head of an independent Cypriot state. By this point they were promoting Enosis (union) between Cyprus and the Greek mainland, which they would then flaunt as a nationalist triumph. Makarios’ return would undermine that, and possibly undermine their shaky hold on power.

When Kissinger tried to sell President Gavin on a restoration of Makarios as “an interim step to cooling-off the immediate crisis,” Director Graham lead the charge against this policy, no doubt on behalf of his agency’s clients in Athens. Graham also mobilized the Joint Chiefs in blocking the plan by talking it down to an already sceptical President, who was more concerned with salvaging the situation with Turkey and how that nation related to Syria.

Daniel Graham may have had a number of political reasons to coax Colby into releasing the “family jewels,” but the damage they did to Kissinger, - as they related to the events in Chile during the Nixon administration – certainly helped the Director’s cause.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Text in blue are Henry Kissinger’s actual words from Years of Renewal (Simon & Schuster, 1999) pp. 192 – 242; 310 - 345
 
Awesome job drew looking at Gavin's viewpoints on the detriments of having Teddy or Ronnie succeed him...It looks like hell be the first president to seek the presidency on a independt basis, and very well be able to achieve a true centrist level...Things could get pretty tricky again in the house lol...Keep it comming:D
 
Man, I've been reading this TL since the day before yesterday and it is awesome. Still, I've accumulated a list of things I want to talk to you about:

(1) What does Chinese isolationism mean for Taiwan? Are any of the governments that recognized the PRC changing their minds? Keep in mind that Chiang dies in 1975.

(2) It would be nice to know about Nobel Peace Prize winners and Men of the Year.

(3) Is King Faisal still assassinated?

(4) Someone already asked about the would-be Ford assassins, but what about Sam Byck?

(5) Did North Korea have ties with ZANU and Pakistan at the time? If yes, how does the new leadership (more pro-Soviet, I would assume) affect these?

(6) It's Michael Foot, not Foote.

(7) What happens in the colonies after Portuguese withdrawal? Is the MPLA in a better position after the closing in of China? Does Indonesia still invade East Timor? Might the Chinese make moves on Macau?

(8) What became of the Black Panthers?

(9) The years 1972-1975 were pretty interesting in Chad and even more so in neighboring Sudan. Your decision on whether or not you're going anywhere with this, but a pro-Soviet Sudan (next to a pro-Soviet Ethiopia and a still pro-Soviet Somalia) could have interesting repercussions.

(10) Does the US restart the training of Tibetan exiles now that rapprochement with China failed?

(11) I'd be interested in hearing comments on world events from Kennan, Brzezinski, Gaddis, and Huntington if possible.

(12) What does China's closing in mean for TAZARA? Will decreased (or withdrawn) Chinese support lead to ZANU losing out to the pro-Soviet ZAPU in Rhodesia? Will Romania and Pakistan be "punished" by Beijing for facilitating the failed Nixon policy? Will relations with Albania improve while Tito is officially denounced?

(13) A bit more info on terrorism would be welcomed. I'm thinking of South Moluccan groups in the Netherlands, Abu Nidal (who knows what Fatah bigshot he might assassinate), the Weathermen, Carlos (the raid on OPEC HQ was in December '75 in OTL), the Red Brigades, and Operation Wrath of God (maybe the Lillehammer fiasco is butterflied away).

(14) With the Syrian regime a joke, Sadat watching out for his own and Gaddafi apparently well-disposed toward the fundamentalists (which, BTW, should really hurt French and Soviet arms sales to him, not that there aren't other sources), the natural ally of Palestinian secularists right now should be the recently victorious Iraqi regime (which, again BTW, will lobby the Soviets for a Baathist regime in Syria).

(15) How will China react to Indian annexation of Sikkim? In OTL they refused to recognize it for over 30 years, in TTL they might get more involved than that.

(16) Could it be possible to keep Bruce Lee alive? How is the blaxploitation genre influenced by increased inner-city militancy? Could you give us some Oscar winners?

(17) Is Tom Bradley still elected mayor of Los Angeles?

(18) How does the Kim Dae-jung kidnapping go? Is Habib still there to save him?

(19) What effects do developments in Indochina have on communist guerrillas in the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia? What of the MNLF in the Philippines and the Islamic resurgence?

(20) Franco should be dying pretty soon and Western Sahara will probably become a mess in TTL as well.

(21) Speaking of Franco dying, does Saturday Night Live get off the ground? Incorporating some sketches or references into your TL would be fun.

(22) Is the KMT still in Burma? What are the consequences of China's new role in the heroin trade for the Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent?

(23) What do Iran's military troubles mean for the Dhofar Rebellion?

(24) My assumption is that the deadlock in the Senate that made Agnew vice president would lead to demands for DC statehood being taken more seriously, though given the sophisticated pettiness injected into US federalism I wouldn't expect it to be enough.

(25) Some coverage of The Idi Amin Dada Show would be welcomed.

(26) What's going on with Gough Whitlam and the White Australia policy?

(27) I'd be interested in UEFA Cup winners and sites chosen for the next Olympics. Is Moscow '80 still on the horizon?

(28) These were troubled years in Argentina and Uruguay as well. Any changes from OTL?

(29) What are the consequences of China's new course for Maoism abroad?

(30) South America already had someone like Allende in Juan Velasco. I leave the possibilities for you to ponder.

(31) Was China forced to renounce its territorial claims after their defeat in Mongolia? In OTL they still claimed territory in the Pamir, the Amur valley and possibly on the Mongolian border; you added to that a claim over all of Mongolia. Could they later repudiate that renounciation and/or add a new claim over Outer Manchuria?

(32) What is happening with the proposals for the Arab Islamic Republic and the Federation of Arab Republics?

(33) Could the Soviet attempt on the life of Enrico Berlinguer succeed? Definitely no Historic Compromise if it did, but what of Eurocommunism?

(34) Anything going differently for Onassis with the colonels still in power in Athens?

(35) What does the prolonged Arab-Israeli war hold for a certain Major General Ariel Sharon?

(36) Does General Westmoreland still run for South Carolina governor in '74 or does he wait for a more GOP-friendly time? Sorry if you've already covered this.

(37) How does CENTO fit into the Iraqi-Iranian war? How 'bout the Iranian Baluchis, backed by Iraq? (And what of spillage into Pakistan?) How 'bout the Iraqi Kurds, backed by Iran and the United States? My personal opinion is that you've been too generous to the Iraqi military.
 
Last edited:
(38) It occured to me that as far as geographic neighbors go, nationalist (if not fascist) Greece and Stalinist (maybe one day Maoist) Albania are a pretty explosive combination. IIRC at this time the 2 were still officially at war and Greece still claimed Northern Epirus.
 

Thande

Donor
More excellent writing Drew. I'm really appreciating the depth of research here - never knew Ted Heath once headed up a firing squad for instance.

One suggestion: In OTL Alec Douglas-Home said in 1973 that he intended to retire from Parliament at the next election. He was overtaken by events in first 1974 but then indeed retired at second 1974. While Heath might have persuaded him to stay on a bit longer due to not wanting to change people in the middle of crises like Syria, I suspect he'd be getting too old now to still be Foreign Secretary. I think his most probable replacement would be Geoffrey Rippon, as Heath did not get along well with Reginald Maudling (the two of them held the shadow position around this time in OTL, Maudling after Heath was removed as leader).
 
Man, I've been reading this TL since the day before yesterday and it is awesome. Still, I've accumulated a list of things I want to talk to you about:

(1) What does Chinese isolationism mean for Taiwan? Are any of the governments that recognized the PRC changing their minds? Keep in mind that Chiang dies in 1975.

At present ITTL, the PRC is offering no alternative and the Republic of China is the only open China to the world. Look for the death of Chiang to to alter the direction of talks over the future of Hong Kong.

(2) It would be nice to know about Nobel Peace Prize winners and Men of the Year.

Nobel:

1973: Good question/it wouldn't have been Kissinger and Le Douc Tho, since the 1973 Paris peace accord never came off.


1974: Sean MacBride; Eisaku Sato - nothing has substantially changed ITTL to change the circumstances of these awards.

1975: Andrei Dmitrievich Sakharov
- more so, to send a message to Suslov


Time Man of the Year:

I'll go with Sirica in 1973, he's still trying Watergate conspirators if under different circumstances.

1974: President James M. Gavin - for restoring respect to the Presidency.

1975: Hmm...




(3) Is King Faisal still assassinated?

Stay tuned.

(4) Someone already asked about the would-be Ford assassins, but what about Sam Byck?

Looking at his case I don't see why it would have gone very differently ITTL; unless you can make the argument that he was pro-Gavin, in which case he's still out there writing crazy letters and under Secret Service surveillance. The Petersen incident occurred in ITTL.

(5) Did North Korea have ties with ZANU and Pakistan at the time? If yes, how does the new leadership (more pro-Soviet, I would assume) affect these?

The North Korean leadership has been changed by the events of 1973. We'll assume the new Supreme Marshall who replaced Kim Il Sung (the latter, a Soviet citizen, went to Moscow during the tension in the Gulf of Tonkin in the summer of 1973) while he was out of the country and executed the entire Kim clan is eager to expand his international trade and arms procurement. Perhaps the absence of China and the failure of North Vietnam on the scene encourages him to assume the mantle of Communist leader of Asia.

(6) It's Michael Foot, not Foote.

What was that? Potatoe? Consider it a typo.

(7) What happens in the colonies after Portuguese withdrawal? Is the MPLA in a better position after the closing in of China? Does Indonesia still invade East Timor? Might the Chinese make moves on Macau?

Stay tuned.

(8) What became of the Black Panthers?

Black militancy is still a factor by 1975, and the resort to violence by some as has been recorded in a kidnapping and murder of Spiro Agnew's daughter in 1973 and the 1974 attack on the NYSE. The Black Panther's political activism continues, as the economy provides more recruiting grounds.

(9) The years 1972-1975 were pretty interesting in Chad and even more so in neighboring Sudan. Your decision on whether or not you're going anywhere with this, but a pro-Soviet Sudan (next to a pro-Soviet Ethiopia and a still pro-Soviet Somalia) could have interesting repercussions.

Initially, a Soviet attempt at harmonizing an East African bloc, and using it to lend support to wars of liberation in Mozambique and Angola, and perhaps Namibia. Suslov is going to continue Soviet efforts in the third world; the question will be if he has to chose between allies, as the above circumstance may lead to, when national interests among the parties (and religious differences between Islamic and non-Islamic parties) begin to tear away at the "bloc".

(10) Does the US restart the training of Tibetan exiles now that rapprochement with China failed?

Maybe, but I think there might be some question in the climate of the 1970's as to whether this is a worthwhile project.

(11) I'd be interested in hearing comments on world events from Kennan, Brzezinski, Gaddis, and Huntington if possible.

(12) What does China's closing in mean for TAZARA? Will decreased (or withdrawn) Chinese support lead to ZANU losing out to the pro-Soviet ZAPU in Rhodesia? Will Romania and Pakistan be "punished" by Beijing for facilitating the failed Nixon policy? Will relations with Albania improve while Tito is officially denounced?

The absence of Chinese influence will make it harder for the Eurocomunists who are looking for support outside of Moscow. Marshall Tito was pretty much his own guy under just about any circumstance. Evner Hoxa and Nicolae Causcesu were eccentrics who went their own way anyway; although Albania may now need to re-examine its position vis-a-vis Moscow. Of course, Europe now has French Communist Party closer to power than ITTL, and more is to come.

Pakistan will have to look to the United States even more now to off-set the Indian relationship with the Soviets. No one to triangulate with.

Tazara - incomplete, a railway into the jungle after the funding collapsed. A possible pick-up for the United States if they want to push these governments closer to US policy in return for completing the railway project.




(13) A bit more info on terrorism would be welcomed. I'm thinking of South Moluccan groups in the Netherlands, Abu Nidal (who knows what Fatah bigshot he might assassinate), the Weathermen, Carlos (the raid on OPEC HQ was in December '75 in OTL), the Red Brigades, and Operation Wrath of God (maybe the Lillehammer fiasco is butterflied away).

(14) With the Syrian regime a joke, Sadat watching out for his own and Gaddafi apparently well-disposed toward the fundamentalists (which, BTW, should really hurt French and Soviet arms sales to him, not that there aren't other sources), the natural ally of Palestinian secularists right now should be the recently victorious Iraqi regime (which, again BTW, will lobby the Soviets for a Baathist regime in Syria).

Note: ITTL Iraq remains relatively strong and very Ba'athist. The rival Ba'ath regime in Syria is gone now. Jordan is very vulnerable. Expect Iraq to play for being the Arab power of the area. Gaddafi is using the fundamentalists to expand his influence. I imagine the French would remain creative in selling him arms and perhaps some East Bloc nations (he has oil to leverage his buying power)

(15) How will China react to Indian annexation of Sikkim? In OTL they refused to recognize it for over 30 years, in TTL they might get more involved than that.

(16) Could it be possible to keep Bruce Lee alive? How is the blaxploitation genre influenced by increased inner-city militancy? Could you give us some Oscar winners?

Bruce Lee still dead; these events haven't affected the course of his life ITTL by 1973. I see blaxplotation and urban drama as getting more gritty. In composing a list of Oscars we have to consider movies that were never made OTL than would be made under the new conditions ITTL. Or would a fetish for escapism take hold, as it did in the 1930's?

(17) Is Tom Bradley still elected mayor of Los Angeles? Yes. Nothing had changed this by that point in 1973 ITTL.

(18) How does the Kim Dae-jung kidnapping go? Is Habib still there to save him?

I don't see that as having gone differently, though Habib was by then U.N. Ambassador - though he may have finished this up from his old posting in Seoul. I'll say that ITTL Kim Dae Jung is alive - for now.

(19) What effects do developments in Indochina have on communist guerrillas in the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia? What of the MNLF in the Philippines and the Islamic resurgence?

Depends to what extent North Korea and Moscow step into the void.

(20) Franco should be dying pretty soon and Western Sahara will probably become a mess in TTL as well.

(21) Speaking of Franco dying, does Saturday Night Live get off the ground? Incorporating some sketches or references into your TL would be fun.

stay tuned.

(22) Is the KMT still in Burma? What are the consequences of China's new role in the heroin trade for the Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent?

stay tuned.

(23) What do Iran's military troubles mean for the Dhofar Rebellion?

(24) My assumption is that the deadlock in the Senate that made Agnew vice president would lead to demands for DC statehood being taken more seriously, though given the sophisticated pettiness injected into US federalism I wouldn't expect it to be enough.

DC statehood demands yes, winning? Probably not.

(25) Some coverage of The Idi Amin Dada Show would be welcomed.

stay tuned.

(26) What's going on with Gough Whitlam and the White Australia policy?

stay tuned.


(27) I'd be interested in UEFA Cup winners and sites chosen for the next Olympics. Is Moscow '80 still on the horizon?

Haven't got there yet. Will look at UEFA.

(28) These were troubled years in Argentina and Uruguay as well. Any changes from OTL?

I hadn't seen grounds for much change yet, and I don't see the Gavin Administration as being revolutionary in its outlook toward Latin America (at least not yet). But the future? Hmm...

(29) What are the consequences of China's new course for Maoism abroad?

Might lead to more ideological schisms locally, or an emulation of the PRC in seeking ideological purity.

(30) South America already had someone like Allende in Juan Velasco. I leave the possibilities for you to ponder.

(31) Was China forced to renounce its territorial claims after their defeat in Mongolia? In OTL they still claimed territory in the Pamir, the Amur valley and possibly on the Mongolian border; you added to that a claim over all of Mongolia. Could they later repudiate that renounciation and/or add a new claim over Outer Manchuria?

The Lesser Mao used this to win his coup, arguing essentially that the "internationalists"had betrayed China's cause. The PRC may well have reached a cosmetic settlement with the USSR on some of these, but like Versailles, the new regime might regard this as a victor's peace imposed on China.

(32) What is happening with the proposals for the Arab Islamic Republic and the Federation of Arab Republics?

AIR dead for the same reasons as OTL. FARL Syria is gone, and Egypt remains skeptical as it did OTL. However, there is now a movement growing for a larger Caliphate.

(33) Could the Soviet attempt on the life of Enrico Berlinguer succeed? Definitely no Historic Compromise if it did, but what of Eurocommunism?

For the moment it has a French model now, at least in partnership with a non-Communist leader. Wouldn't put it past Suslov to try again to kill Berlinguer.


(34) Anything going differently for Onassis with the colonels still in power in Athens?

Ari's still dying in France.

(35) What does the prolonged Arab-Israeli war hold for a certain Major General Ariel Sharon?

We'll see. Likud's time is coming...

(36) Does General Westmoreland still run for South Carolina governor in '74 or does he wait for a more GOP-friendly time? Sorry if you've already covered this.

Democrat Bryan Dorn won ITTL. Westmoreland didn't make it into the second round.


(37) How does CENTO fit into the Iraqi-Iranian war? How 'bout the Iranian Baluchis, backed by Iraq? (And what of spillage into Pakistan?) How 'bout the Iraqi Kurds, backed by Iran and the United States? My personal opinion is that you've been too generous to the Iraqi military.

CENTO largely dormant.



(38) It occured to me that as far as geographic neighbors go, nationalist (if not fascist) Greece and Stalinist (maybe one day Maoist) Albania are a pretty explosive combination. IIRC at this time the 2 were still officially at war and Greece still claimed Northern Epirus.

More to come on this point.
 
Top
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top