Canada Wank (YACW)

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

dathi

Interesting developments in the US and sound pretty likely. A few questions.

a) Who's buying all this cotton the south is producting? Historically I think Britain was the overwhelming market but the US might be less willing to trade so freely with their greatest rival, although they don't really have much choice.

Usual suspects, mainly Britain. The US may be mad, but cotton is her main source for hard currency.

Latter on when the US started building their own textile industry behind tariff walls this was mainly in New England. [Which had the technical base and finances, plus a suitable climate with some water power]. Could be a source of future conflict that will be more significant this time around when the northern industrialists want tariffs to protect their infant industries as the south will have more influence this time around.

Oh yes. The US starts the i/n/t/e/r/ post-war period with high tariffs for revenue, which she needs desperately to pay off debt and build infrastructure, and that helps build northern (NY and PA mostly, now) industries. However, as you say, the southern planters aren't going to be happy once its purpose is to protect those industries instead of generate income.

b) Is Haiti, a black republic/dictatorship [depending on how things are going], based around a successful slave rebellion that comfortable an ally to the US?

Comfortable? no! but they don't have that many nations in the area that want to be friends. They have friendly relations with Argentina, say, and a few other Latin American nations, but most of them don't want to annoy Britain or New England, both of whom are more USEFUL to them than the US is. At the moment.

c) What sort of time period is the summary going up to? I was a bit surprised to see railways start to appear as that sounds like the mid-late 30's at least I would have thought? Also, presuming that the relations with Britain aren't too icy I would have thought that Britain is still willing to invest in US railways. Although probably at an higher interest rate and also it might be that the US is unwilling to allow too much British economic influence.

I don't have dates on the railway stuff! Experiments are run all over the place in the late 20s, early 30s. Pace in England, most of Europe, is just like OTL. The US is a bit slower, due to financial problems (restricted British credit, higher costs, etc, competition for funding with canals). The pace in Canada is MUCH faster. And in strange places. The earliest line is built around Montreal (of course). But connecting the headwaters of the Thames with the Grand River with Lake Ontario is probably next. Looking at a map of Ontario, think Woodstock-Paris-Hamilton.

Then the next rail might be portages between say the Maumee and the Wabash and then rail inland from FtLiverpool (northern suburbs of Terre Haute IN) east to the forts along that border, and then south and west from there to those forts. Also a line running east from St. Louis to contact the line from Liverpool.

Then minor lines around York/Toronto. Then minor lines around Detroit. Then Chicago-Detroit (to cut the LONG trip around Michigan) and a line from Montreal to Halifax.

I still have some working out of things to do here. When I initially wrote the post with all those lines, I'd forgotten how, relatively, late even the Manchester Liverpool line was in England.

But stuff that can't be supplied by river and is near the border... Really wants rail.

If Britain has a lesser role in the development of the US economy this don't just mean that is smaller. It presumably also means that the funds are going elsewhere. Some at least will go into a larger Canada but might be greater investment in other areas. Probably mostly Latin America and India perhaps?

Good point. Latin America sounds good. India seems at the time to be a SOURCE of money, not a sink. But, you know, a few rail lines there wouldn't be amiss either...

I think you will need to consider the butterflies in Europe as they will be fairly substantial. It's still overwhelmingly the most important centre of power, finance and knowledge in the world so events there will affect everywhere, including N America. If by no other way than the effects on Britain as, barring a full scale US attack on Canada/Louisiana, events in Europe will take up much more attention in London than those in N America.

Thanks again for the update.

Steve

 

[stevep]

I still have some working out of things to do here. When I initially wrote the post with all those lines, I'd forgotten how, relatively, late even the Manchester Liverpool line was in England.

But stuff that can't be supplied by river and is near the border... Really wants rail.

That's what I was thinking. Not certain of the dates without looking them up but thought things sounded rather ambitious for something before say the mid-30's.

Good point. Latin America sounds good. India seems at the time to be a SOURCE of money, not a sink. But, you know, a few rail lines there wouldn't be amiss either...

Less a case of it being a sink as a good area for investment. Plenty of capacity for profitable investment in India, even if some of them were unpleasant to the modern viewpoint, most noticeably opium production, which was centered in northern India.

Steve

 

[Thande]

I'm not envisioning a whole lot of butterflies in Europe in the immediate future, although you're going to see a few in Britain herself fairly soon.

I tend to disagree, just having no Hundred Days will produce an IMMENSE change in the post-war European borders and balance of power. But I'll ask Susano and Valdemar for their thoughts.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]
What is Britian/Canada/Spain's response to this infrastructure? [/FONT]

Britain/Canada are moving far faster on their infrastructure. The US would be reacting to them except they can't afford it... Actually the US canal system is partly a reaction.

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]
What about new shipyards? Infrastructure? Mining developments around the great lakes?
[/FONT]

No new shipyards, I don't suppose. I think the existing ones are probably enough, although they may be expanded - especially to build lakers.

What mining? Aside from Marmora northeast of Peterborough, is there any mining that can be done reasonably and be found in this time frame? I'd love to have some mining, but all the gold and silver and stuff seems to be MUCH later, and even the Mesabi range isn't discovered OTL until 1866. I mean some earlier, sure, but 4 decades?

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif] Although the lumber industry is pretty well established by the end of the war the product being shipped is basically big squared off trees shipped to England for sawing into planks and lumber. Small scall local mills exist in some areas but are relatively rare until the mid-1800's. However silver mining occured in the mid-late 1800's in Northern Ontario so an earlier start to this industry could spark a more diversified economy (http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~bobevans/silver.html this is one site I know of outsite OTL Thunder Bay. Spear points 10,000 year old have been found on this site as well showing how long it has been occupied)
[/FONT]

Again, 1884 is pretty late for this timeframe (If I get that far, I may use it)

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif] Question...we now have a Canada that is expanded in size and population. Does this new Canada start to be viewed as a source of troops earlier than OTL Boer War for some of the many "little wars" around the globe?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1800–1899

Because in the words of one homesteader from back home during WW1 who left this note posted on his door.."war might be hell...but so is homesteading". I can see many unhappy veterns willing to leave their land (especially if unmarried) for a new battle if the alternative is clearing land.

Anywho..keep it up,
foresterab[/FONT]

With the big, bad US right next door, I don't imagine that too many Canadians are going to be wanted oversees. Some of the Sauk and other Indians who need to kill an enemy to achieve Warrior status may find that trying to do it in the ranks of the John Company works better than trying it at home and getting arrested for murder....

 

[Dan1988]

b) Is Haiti, a black republic/dictatorship [depending on how things are going], based around a successful slave rebellion that comfortable an ally to the US?

I would hope not - indeed, I would think that Haiti would probably ally more with México, Canada, and especially New England.

If Britain has a lesser role in the development of the US economy this don't just mean that is smaller. It presumably also means that the funds are going elsewhere. Some at least will go into a larger Canada but might be greater investment in other areas. Probably mostly Latin America and India perhaps?

Considering that Britain was the dominant economic power in Latin America in OTL, to have the British have even more of a stranglehold would be interesting - particularly in the case of the Southern Cone.

 

[foresterab]

What mining? Aside from Marmora northeast of Peterborough, is there any mining that can be done reasonably and be found in this time frame? I'd love to have some mining, but all the gold and silver and stuff seems to be MUCH later, and even the Mesabi range isn't discovered OTL until 1866. I mean some earlier, sure, but 4 decades?

Again, 1884 is pretty late for this timeframe (If I get that far, I may use it)

Did some more checks...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Mines,_Ontario (yes I know it's wiki ). Bruce Mines was mining silver by 1846 and like Silver Mountain...the deposit had been known to the local First Nations for a long time.
http://www.mining.ca/halloffame/english/industry.html
This site refers to a few more metals than just silver...including some I hadn't really paid alot of attention too such as the Cape Breton coal deposits. All this new construction is going to require iron and coal...both of which were in production by your TL.

With the big, bad US right next door, I don't imagine that too many Canadians are going to be wanted oversees. Some of the Sauk and other Indians who need to kill an enemy to achieve Warrior status may find that trying to do it in the ranks of the John Company works better than trying it at home and getting arrested for murder....

True..and theres' still lots of uncertainity as to where both the national borders will eventually settle and internal issues related to settlement. Still think it would be cool to have a Canadian regiment in India or Africa helping pass on some lessons.

Keep it up,
foresterab

 

[stevep]

With the big, bad US right next door, I don't imagine that too many Canadians are going to be wanted oversees. Some of the Sauk and other Indians who need to kill an enemy to achieve Warrior status may find that trying to do it in the ranks of the John Company works better than trying it at home and getting arrested for murder....

Dathi

Interesting idea but I doubt it will prove practical. For one thing until there's a fairly reliable and cheap route over the Rockies any Indians from east of them are going to have to go most of the way around the world to reach India. Also John Cmp has a hell of a lot of people nearer with martial backgrounds. Not to mention someone who needs to kill is a potential problem, even in wartime and even more so when you're main aim is troops to maintain order.

With the Lakes in British/Canadian control and decent relations with the locals as well as probably higher European populations than OTL I would have thought it would be possible to start developing some of the mineral resources in the region earlier. Especially since as foresterab says all the infrastructure development will give a big market for coal and iron. [Might for quite a while be more cost efficient to ship finished equipment in from Britain or possibly New England but will be more demand for local production. Not to mention once the railways and steam engines start getting significant local coal production is going to be very handy.

Steve

 

[stevep]

I would hope not - indeed, I would think that Haiti would probably ally more with México, Canada, and especially New England.

I must admit that would be my thoughts. Both on the question of slavery and, possibly like the British islands, they could provide settlers looking for a better life. Working on the assumption that Britain is happy with getting Louisiana populated to boost its development and security.

Considering that Britain was the dominant economic power in Latin America in OTL, to have the British have even more of a stranglehold would be interesting - particularly in the case of the Southern Cone.

It might, coupled with some American involvement in the independence struggle, be why Argentina is the one nation with close links with the US. Especially presuming we're resumed control of the Falkland Is, although the Argentinians may have never occupied it in TTL. [The danger for them in this is that if their more distant and try and restrict investment from Britain is that Uruguay and/or Brazil gets more development and possibly the Patagonians get backing].

 

[stevep]

True..and theres' still lots of uncertainity as to where both the national borders will eventually settle and internal issues related to settlement. Still think it would be cool to have a Canadian regiment in India or Africa helping pass on some lessons.

Keep it up,
foresterab

Possibly they could see some imperial duty in Latin America if something turns up there, or western/southern Africa. However for the foreseeable future I suspect that their main concern with be the proximity of the markedly more numerous Americans.

Stevep

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

It might, coupled with some American involvement in the independence struggle, be why Argentina is the one nation with close links with the US. Especially presuming we're resumed control of the Falkland Is, although the Argentinians may have never occupied it in TTL. [The danger for them in this is that if their more distant and try and restrict investment from Britain is that Uruguay and/or Brazil gets more development and possibly the Patagonians get backing].

William Brown, the founder of the Argentine Navy was an American (of Irish origin). His influence is the one Latin American internal push towards the US.

I suspect the Argentines do take control of the Islas Malvinas until the Brits get around to taking the Falkland Islands back

Hmmm Uruguay....

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Dathi

Interesting idea but I doubt it will prove practical. For one thing until there's a fairly reliable and cheap route over the Rockies any Indians from east of them are going to have to go most of the way around the world to reach India. Also John Cmp has a hell of a lot of people nearer with martial backgrounds. Not to mention someone who needs to kill is a potential problem, even in wartime and even more so when you're main aim is troops to maintain order.

Very good point. They're going to totally suck as garrison troops! ANd, as you say, not be very reliable even in a war situation.

Moreover, now that the question arises. If you are part of the 'thin red line' and 500 men in your regiment kill 100 men in enemies, which of your 500 are now 'warriors'?

With the Lakes in British/Canadian control and decent relations with the locals as well as probably higher European populations than OTL I would have thought it would be possible to start developing some of the mineral resources in the region earlier. Especially since as foresterab says all the infrastructure development will give a big market for coal and iron. [Might for quite a while be more cost efficient to ship finished equipment in from Britain or possibly New England but will be more demand for local production. Not to mention once the railways and steam engines start getting significant local coal production is going to be very handy.

Steve

People keep talking about mineral resources. WHAT resources, please? OTL's Ontario has bucket-loads, but few that were known that early. The Iron Range wasn't discovered until 1866, I don't see how to move that up (much). That silver mine is 1884 (ditto). There's a GOOD lead mine at Galena Illinois that is already being exploited (trivially, but there). Other than that, I'm mostly drawing blanks...

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Oh, and the next few posts may take a while. I am researching grain prices, transportation, the British monarchy, military technology. I might have to research Latin America if you guys keep up.

I hope to have another post up in the next day or so, although I'm not sure which... but the current set are taking a while.

 

[stevep]

Oh, and the next few posts may take a while. I am researching grain prices, transportation, the British monarchy, military technology. I might have to research Latin America if you guys keep up.

I hope to have another post up in the next day or so, although I'm not sure which... but the current set are taking a while.

Dathi

OK, take your time. Must be a huge amount of research going into this TL and we appreciate all the effort your putting into it.

Steve

 

[Dan1988]

Oh, and the next few posts may take a while. I am researching grain prices, transportation, the British monarchy, military technology. I might have to research Latin America if you guys keep up.

I hope to have another post up in the next day or so, although I'm not sure which... but the current set are taking a while.

I can perfectly understand - and for Latin America, at least you have a bunch of AH.commers who could provide you with info. The ones I can easily think of off the top of my head are Gonzaga, maverick, Admiral Brown, and the like.

 

[Nugax]

People keep talking about mineral resources. WHAT resources, please? OTL's Ontario has bucket-loads, but few that were known that early. The Iron Range wasn't discovered until 1866, I don't see how to move that up (much). That silver mine is 1884 (ditto). There's a GOOD lead mine at Galena Illinois that is already being exploited (trivially, but there). Other than that, I'm mostly drawing blanks...

You actually have New Brunswick's Coal, Zinc and Lead (and Nova Scotia's smaller coal deposits) which had mentions as far back as 1720, they were little exploited due to much more efficient operations in Britain and America. Greater demand, American hostility and the Maine Cessation allowing easier movement of goods into Canada.

This would tie NB into the greater Canadian economy and reduce overspecialisation in commercial and fishing pursuits.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

You actually have New Brunswick's Coal, Zinc and Lead (and Nova Scotia's smaller coal deposits) which had mentions as far back as 1720, they were little exploited due to much more efficient operations in Britain and America. Greater demand, American hostility and the Maine Cessation allowing easier movement of goods into Canada.

This would tie NB into the greater Canadian economy and reduce overspecialisation in commercial and fishing pursuits.

OK. THanks, have to look those up.

I've pencilled in Cape Breton iron industry based on Cape Breton coal and Bell Island iron. So Halifax remains a ship-building centre even after the steam and iron age...

 

[Thande]

OK, re Europe, Susano has got back to me with a detailed opinion. I realise the focus of this TL is North America so I will just summarise things briefly.

- Wellington taking Paris first is not so important in the grand scheme of things as the much greater change of there being no Hundred Days. This will cause the Congress of Vienna to fail and borders to be drawn more based on how things stood with occupations in 1814. This means:

- Prussia gets Saxony and the Southern Netherlands (OTL Belgium);

- France is rather better off than OTL as it gets off with the much lighter pre-Waterloo treaties and a slightly more favourable border with the German states;

- Basically without the Waterloo campaign to reunite the squabbling coalition powers, divisions will deepen, and you'll see an ideological divide between absolutists (Russia, Prussia) and constitutionalists (Britain, France) which becomes wider and icier much earlier on than in OTL, basically setting up a cold war. Austria will originally be with the Anglo-French camp due to outrage over Prussia's annexation of Saxony, but will probably drift back to the Austro-Prussian camp over time for ideological reasons.

There are other more minor territorial changes in the German lands (most notably Russia may retain some small possessions and probably a lot of influence there) but I think those are the main points.

This is of course just Susano's (informed) opinion but I agree with the broad thrust of his argument, especially the part about east-west relations souring without Napoleon's return to shake things up.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

OK, re Europe, Susano has got back to me with a detailed opinion. I realise the focus of this TL is North America so I will just summarise things briefly.

- Wellington taking Paris first is not so important in the grand scheme of things as the much greater change of there being no Hundred Days. This will cause the Congress of Vienna to fail and borders to be drawn more based on how things stood with occupations in 1814. This means:

- Prussia gets Saxony and the Southern Netherlands (OTL Belgium);

- France is rather better off than OTL as it gets off with the much lighter pre-Waterloo treaties and a slightly more favourable border with the German states;

- Basically without the Waterloo campaign to reunite the squabbling coalition powers, divisions will deepen, and you'll see an ideological divide between absolutists (Russia, Prussia) and constitutionalists (Britain, France) which becomes wider and icier much earlier on than in OTL, basically setting up a cold war. Austria will originally be with the Anglo-French camp due to outrage over Prussia's annexation of Saxony, but will probably drift back to the Austro-Prussian camp over time for ideological reasons.

There are other more minor territorial changes in the German lands (most notably Russia may retain some small possessions and probably a lot of influence there) but I think those are the main points.

This is of course just Susano's (informed) opinion but I agree with the broad thrust of his argument, especially the part about east-west relations souring without Napoleon's return to shake things up.

Oh my.

That does change things, doesn't it. Prussia with Belgium, eh? Oh, that's going to make any alt-Franco-Prussian war ... interesting, isn't it.

Hadn't really realized the 100 days was so important, but it would have been, wouldn't it? Thanks.



Oh, and Wellington doesn't actually TAKE Paris, he just arrives the day before the rest of the Allies do (less than 25hrs), and they enter together once they arrive. Is the idea.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Corn Laws/Grain trade

Corn Laws/Grain trade

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The first of the Corn Laws was passed in 1815 after the Napoleonic wars were over, and the price of grain dropped massively, threatening British 'corn' (=grain, mostly wheat) producers. The bill was revised in 1822, setting £4/'quarter' threshold for allowing corn imports. (A 'quarter' was 8 bushels.) If the price topped £4 (80 shillings), then imports could start, and would be stopped if the price fell to 70 shillings. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]One of the first successes of the new Colonial members of the Imperial trade committee was adding a provision to the Corn Law revision of 1822 stating that 'domestic' corn was not 'English' or insular, but rather 'British' i.e. to include colonial grain. The original Corn Law of 1815 treated Canadian grain preferentially (with respect to e.g. German or US grain), but still as 'foreign'. The main fear was that US grain would flow into the system, and Britain would, again, be dependent on a foreign supplier. Since some of the colonial shippers had just this substitution in mind, it was a valid worry. The revised law of 1822 allowed free import of grain from the colonies as long as they controlled imports of American grain effectively.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]With the proto-St. Lawrence seaway having opened in 1821, this opens up all of Canada to supply the British market. If wheat sells for 60/- in Liverpool and it costs 5/- in fees (port fees, insurance, etc.) and 20/ to ship from Montreal then the price of wheat there would be 35/. Similarly, farmer on Lake Ontario can probably sell his wheat for, say, 30/, and one on Lake Erie for 25/. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Note that wheat production in Nova Scotia/New Brunswick is not going to be very high. OTL they imported Canadian wheat. Occasionally merchants try to pretend that a load that came from Philadelphia and New York was actually produced locally, and that that ship had been carrying something other than wheat for Britain. However, there is a pretty good system of oversight and most of those cheaters get caught. The profits involved mean people keep trying. There is somewhat more abuse of the system with Canadian buyers buying wheat from Upstate New York, and later Ohio, but here, there is enough legitimate grain traffic that the rewards for cheating aren't quite so high. OTOH, that traffic is enough to hide some cheaters, so something about 10% of the trade is actually US grain. Since the worst abuses are caught, and the US sourcing of grain is provably low, the Canadian and Maritime shippers get the duty-free entry to England.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Note, too, that wheat production in Lower Canada/Québec was rather low due to problems with rust and midges. OTL in the early 40s they had to almost completely switch away from wheat to lower value grains like barley and oats. Note, however, that the chance of selling wheat leads even more Canadien farmers (especially younger sons) to up stakes and move west.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]While a farmer in (especially western) Ontario or Michigan or the western territories bordering Lake Michigan is going to get less for his wheat than just about anyone else, it makes a nice supplement to the subsistence farming that he probably expected when he homesteaded. Depending on where he is, of course, he can also sell food to the military, especially the various forts on the US border, and to the new towns springing up, but those are not very big markets, and in any case, they pay the rates set by export to England. Especially with transport costs, the inland forts are pretty much supplied by the settler/militia (white and native) settled near them.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The initial few years after the war sees some 80k new farms started, mostly in southern Ontario and Michigan. They have to clear the land, of course, and rotate crops and feed their animals, but after a few years, they supply probably 10 bushels a year of wheat to market, which is 800K bushels, 100K quarters (some of which, of course, goes to support the local military establishment, especially the border forts). This is only about 1% of the British supply, but it sets the stage for more. It also creates impetus to build roads and rail to get more land available for growing crops. As the market develops (it takes time for the merchants build the boats and infrastructure for shipping the grain to Montreal and then to England), the farmers expand their farms and plant more wheat. The success of the initial farmers encourages others, and settlement increases. Moreover, this farming is labour intensive, and immigrants who can't afford to set up their own farms can earn money working for existing ones, once they get well established. Then when those workers have saved up some money, they in turn go out and start new farms.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The cost of shipping from Montreal to Liverpool is as much per bushel as many of the farmers get when they sell the wheat (especially if the price is low), so there is some pressure for cheaper trans-Atlantic transport, which, in turn, has future impact. There is also a demand for a better port than Montreal (not only inaccessible about half the year, but big ships can't make it all the way to Montreal without dredging. This will make a rail connexion to a better, all year port important). [/FONT]

 

[Thande]

Oh my.

That does change things, doesn't it. Prussia with Belgium, eh? Oh, that's going to make any alt-Franco-Prussian war ... interesting, isn't it.

Hadn't really realized the 100 days was so important, but it would have been, wouldn't it? Thanks.



Oh, and Wellington doesn't actually TAKE Paris, he just arrives the day before the rest of the Allies do (less than 25hrs), and they enter together once they arrive. Is the idea.

I'm hoping to get back to you with a map to explain things better.