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stevep, the British won't have any problem realizing that if British volunteers are aiding the rebels while French volunteers(or other...) are aiding the Spanish government therefore Spain will become much closer to France and those Spanish colonies which remain loyal in the Western Hemisphere will do the same.

Not to mention the British may WANT the Spanish out if the alternative is Spain's traditional hostility to British principles of trade and commerce.

So if giving the French a green light risks adding the US, Spain, and many Spanish colonies to the rank of allies to the traditional British enemy...
 
Interesting. Do you have a cite for that? I should probably investigate this. While Royalist France and Spain and Britain are all supposed to be good friends now, it certainly can't last.

People have also made comments about Britain helping to rip apart the Spanish Empire. I do know that Britain did some of that when Spain was fighting Britain, and I do know that OTL there were lots of demobbed soldiers/sailors who hired out to the independence movement (starting with Cochrane:)), but how much did Britain support e.g. Bolivar after Spain switched sides and/or the war was over. I'm rather afraid my knowledge of South American history is not what it could be.

When looking at the Wiki article on Mexican independence, there wasn't (IIRC) any reference to British aid.

Dathi

Basically what I've read before was that about 1822-23 when Spain was losing the fight to retain its mainland colonies France and possibly some more distant support from other conservative powers proposed offering military assistance in restoring Spanish control over the rebellious colonies. Britain, partly from a support for the independence movements and partly because the region was a large market for British goods which the continental might close to our goods opposed this intervention. Since the world was still war weary and the RN was pretty much unmatched at the time that decided the matter.

Famously Britain approached the US for a joint declaration but Monroe wanted to go it alone so, knowing Britain was going to block intervention anyway he made his famous declaration.

Just checking a couple of quick web searches and see
a) http://usinfo.org/docs/democracy/50.htm

b) the Wiki article on the Doctrine @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine#cite_note-Crow1-8 - which references -
John A. Crow. "Areil and Caliban". The Epic of Latin America, Fourth Ed.. pp. 676. ISBN 0520077237.

In TTL there's markedly less likihood of Britain approaching the US for a joint declaration and even less of America agreeing it. More to the point Britain is basically supporting Spain in Florida and getting a share of the custom revenue resulting. As such, barring a serious clash between the two nations, which could admittedly be possible, there's somewhat less chance of Britain blocking French intervention. Especially if some deal could be done on access to the regions markets, which Spain can't really supply anyway. Or if France wants to intervene British conservative politicians especially deciding it best if French troops and gold were tied up in fighting in Latin America.

Another matter might be if the restored Bourbon monarchy is worried about the loyalty of many of the Napoleonic veterans. After all. OTL, many did defect to Napoleon and welcome him back. With Boney dead that's less of an immediate threat but probably still a concern. After all there is the Prince of Rome presumably and Napoleon's brothers, while without a Hundred Days possible Murat stays in charge in Naples? Without the renewed war and new invasion of France that resulted the Napoleonic cause will have more luster and also more supporters without the death-toll of the Waterloo campaign. Furthermore it might simply suit the French government that some of those tens of thousands of soldiers who have been dominating and looting Europe for most of the last generation are fighting and probably looting in Latin America rather than causing unrest in France.

There's still the fact that Latin America is a big market for Britain and the best bet to get decent access would be if its independent. Also liberal feeling and national romaticism will give some drive in that direction while Britain also has a lot of veterans with experience. [Your plans for Canada will soak some of them up but not all]. As such Britain might still block any such intervention to support the restoration of Spanish rule but not as certain as in OTL.

Steve
 
In terms of whether its restricted to its current border I think it would depend on how long before it tries to expand and how. As I said to Grimm I could possibly see them buy Florida from Spain and maybe under the right conditions possibly Cuba or other Caribbean islands as well.







There are so many butterflies. Even as late as 1848 an Austria struck by disorder and unrest was seen as too powerful for Prussia to challenge. With no Hundred Days the development of France and hence of all of Europe could well diverge totally. Which could be to Britain's favour or dis-advantage depending on how it goes. [Note that a period without the long peace of OTL is not necessarily a major disadvantage for Britain. If you have more wars or war scares it could drain resources or prompt even faster economic, social and/or technological development].



Agreed. If it keeps its current borders and possibly secure land further west its still likely to become as populous and powerful by the end of the century as the US although the latter will be more concentrated and might have a stronger industrial base.

In fact this is probably the best case scenario for the US. Avoid conflict and concentrate on internal development and resolving internal problems.



Dan raises a good point. We generally forget that but for Charlotte's death Victoria probably wouldn't even be born. Presuming she last's longer than her father, which seems likely, then I think there would be a break with Hanover, at least for a while. If she had a son I'm not sure if he would become the king of Hanover or it would go to to an older male relative? If the former than presumably in time the two would be re-united, which could be a major butterfly itself.

Steve

Hanover would go to William and then Ernest Augustus as with OTL separating the Crowns and divorcing Britain to some extent from German affairs but not totally.
 
stevep, the British won't have any problem realizing that if British volunteers are aiding the rebels while French volunteers(or other...) are aiding the Spanish government therefore Spain will become much closer to France and those Spanish colonies which remain loyal in the Western Hemisphere will do the same.

Not to mention the British may WANT the Spanish out if the alternative is Spain's traditional hostility to British principles of trade and commerce.

So if giving the French a green light risks adding the US, Spain, and many Spanish colonies to the rank of allies to the traditional British enemy...

Grimm

Missed this while replying to Dathi.

I accept the reasons why Britain might want to support the rebels, as that's what happened OTL. Just saying that the pressure in that direction will be a bit weaker in TTL. Whether its enough to change the outcome and to what effect, depends on Dathi's decison.

Actually, technically Spain's traditional hostility towards another nations having access to its 'own' markets is the stance that every nation, including Britain at this time, took. It was only a generation or so later that Britain started its lone stand in support of free trade.;)

I fail to see how giving a green light to French intervention in support of Spain would alienate Spain however? You might still get some British volenteers supporting the rebels but they would be insignificant in number. Also, if hostile elements tried making capital out of it to cause hostility between Britain and the Bourbon then Britain always has the alternative of coming off the fence on the issue. Which is a very good reason why Spain should not seek to pick a fight with Britain, nor France if it has large numbers of troops stranded in the Americas.

Steve
 
stevep, if France is aiding Spain on a large scale and all the British are doing is somewhat reducing the number of British volunteers fighting against Spain how could this not threaten to push Spain in a pro-French direction?
 
stevep, if France is aiding Spain on a large scale and all the British are doing is somewhat reducing the number of British volunteers fighting against Spain how could this not threaten to push Spain in a pro-French direction?

Grimm

If that's all Britain was doing yes, that would be the case. Although as this French aid and the continued existence of the Spanish American empire would still depend on not antagonising Britain.

However Britain would still be openly supporting Spain in areas such as Florida and would probably be giving tacit assistance elsewhere. Probably in return for some trade access but then Spain can't supply all its empire's needs anyway.

Steve

PS Anyway, until Dathi decides on whether the changed circumstances affect Britain's stance, or even if Spain calls on French assistance, its all a moot point. Like the traditional situation of two bald men arguing over ownership of a comb.;)
 
White Settlement in the years immediately following the war

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]White Settlement in the years immediately following the war[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the lands controlled by the Confederacy, almost all the white settlement was demobilized soldiers (and their families) settled as an in-place militia near the US border, in particular near the forts there. This amounts to some 20k settlers, perhaps. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Confederacy does allow individual farmers to settle in Indian settlements, and even a few white villages in Indian settled territory. These are allowed explicitly as 'model farms' where modern European agriculture is on display for the locals to learn from and emulate. In total, there are only 1k whites in these model farms. Indian settlement along the borders of the US is also rather more dense, and more intensive and European than elsewhere. (The Confederacy, while it knows it can't carry the entire load of protecting itself from US attack, wants to do as much as possible, as they know darned well that the Brits would take them over if they didn't.) Between losing some land to the US, and the influx of Indians from e.g. Michigan, the Confederacy knows it has to adopt more intensive agriculture to support a higher density of people in the land they have left.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Michigan, at the end of the war, is British controlled, even if the aboriginal rights of the Indians there haven't been extinguished yet. Still, it is obvious and understood that there will be major white settlement there. Thus, the local natives (with the aid of the Confederacy) negotiate land deals with the British/Canadians/Michiganders. These deals are very generous (by OTL standards) in terms of the land left to the locals, but the majority of the fertile land there is opened up to Canadian settlement. Many local Indians head south to the Confederacy, where they can be maîtres chez eux, as it were, but many also stay. Again, any whites who want to settle in the Indian held areas of Michigan have to get permission from the local tribe/nation. Some of these groups welcome some immigration, but most hold off. Many figure that there will be more than enough nearby white farmers that they can learn European techniques from without letting the camel's nose in their tent.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In OTL's Illinois, the picture is mixed. In the north, with Black Hawk's Sauk there is, again, very little white settlement, as they don't feel the pressure to change in quite the same way as those in the Confederacy do. The major exception is a lead-mining community at Galena. The Sauk didn't even invite in model farmers as they aren't as impressed with the urgency of adopting European farming methods. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the middle, white settlement floods in. The Illinois river valley was the supply/movement route from Lake Michigan/Chicago to Missouri/St .Louis. Before the war the Illinois militia had dispersed the Indian settlement at Peoria (Fort Prevost). So when the fort went in, white settlement moved in to support and supply it. Similarly at Fort Gourock, and to a lesser extent, all along the valley. To some extent, this was a military measure, but partly the locals had been forced to move out, and as there was no one to formally negotiate with, the whites just kind of moved in to fill the vacuum. Very soon those nations regretted not joining the Confederacy and when they did ask the Council to intervene, it did but rather half-heartedly. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The end result is that there is a whole strip of mostly white settlement running diagonally down the middle of Illinois. The Indians aren't kicked out – those that return to their old settlements are welcome, but they are rather swamped by the new white immigrants. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Missouri was already partly opened to white settlement, and most of the Indian nations who lived there had sided with the Americans in the war (to a greater or lesser extent), so they got rather short shrift in any land negotiations. Basically, the British/whites take most of the river bottom land that's suitable for agriculture, and the Indians are forced up onto the prairie.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]OTL's Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are somewhere in between. The nations there mostly fought with the British, but largely as part of the 'Gathering of the Nations' where they were paid, rather than as nations allied with the British. Thus they are treated 'fairly' by British lights, but not 'generously' as Tecumseh and Black Hawk's peoples are. (Tecumseh might not use the word 'generous'.) In particular, the British/Canadians slowly settle up the Mississippi River into Wisconsin and Minnesota, and along the shore of Lake Michigan. As of yet, there aren't enough settlers in the west to cause a lot of conflict with the natives. Some of the prairie nations furtherest east (some in Illinois, some in very eastern Iowa) start investigating cattle ranching, which is initially not very successful, but beats being tied down as dirt farmers. It also provides a living as bison move west beyond the growing human population.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Note that the white settlement is mostly in river valleys so far, for a couple of reasons. This is partly as a means of transporting goods to and from the farms, but mostly it was the land that was possible to work. Until the advent of the cast-steel mold plough, the tough prairie sod was almost impossible to turn with existing equipment. This means that, for the nonce, the prairies are left to Indians and ranchers (some of whom are both).[/FONT]
 
Dissolution of the Spanish Empire

OK, guys (especially Grim Reaper and Stevep:)), what do you think of this?

I hope I don't have to do TOO much revision of this.:)

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Dissolution of the Spanish Empire[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]While Spain is 1) cut off from her colonies by Britain, 2) occupied by the French, and then 3) is busy with the Napoleonic wars, their various colonies are essentially left to fend for themselves. This starts the locals thinking, 'If we can fend for ourselves, now, why not rule ourselves?', and independence movements start in several places. They are also inspired by the American and French Revolutions. In particular, Bolivar, Sucre and San Martin are all active in South America, while Mexico has a long and initially quite unsuccessful insurrection. To oversimplify, Spain loses the mainland colonies in South and North America, while keeping the islands. [As OTL. There are butterflies in specific details that I won't necessarily go into, but that don't matter much.] ITTL, Florida also stays with Spain, as fear of the US is greater than urges for independence.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]During the initial stages of this process, when Spain is a French ally, the British help the rebels in order to cause trouble to an enemy. When Spain switches sides, they stop.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]After Napoleon is defeated, and Spanish forces can, once again, be spared for colonial duty, things get messier.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Spanish America is a rather large market for Britain, apparently even bigger than the US at the time. If those colonies are under Spanish control, the Spanish trade monopolies cut the British out. OTOH, they are supposed to be allies... Spain asks her allies, Britain and the Kingdom of France, to help out. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Britain is able to decline on the grounds that the alliance is against external threats, not rebellion. She does, however, offer to help garrison Florida, as she has interests there. This could free up troops for elsewhere, but Spain turns down the offer – they KNOW Britain has interests there – they just don't know how far those interests extend! (Note that Florida had a very large English-speaking population, between British settlers from the time that Britain owned Florida, to American settlers coming south, to blacks fleeing south, to Indians (who spoke their own languages, obviously, but mostly used English to talk to whites). Britain was actually NOT planning to take over the area, but well... they might have been tempted later, so Spain was legitimately (if excessively) concerned about British intentions here.) [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Also, the negotiations over the borders of the Louisiana purchase were not happy ones for Spain. Instead of being a European Power negotiating with a (rising) ex-colonial state, they are now a minor Power negotiating with a Major Power. Since Louisiana was supposed to be all lands draining into the Mississippi, Britain gets a border 50 miles south of the Rio Roxo (Red River) extending to its head waters (instead of ON the river, and extending only to 100W), then north to the Arkansas river, the headwaters thereof, or the 42nd parallel, whichever that line would reach. (In fact that line would reach the Arkansas). [The actual gain over what the US got in the Adams-Onis treaty is relatively minimal, but Spain felt a lot more pressure, and thought she would have gotten a better deal from the US.] Britain used the explicit threat of stopping Mississippi tariff payments early as a leverage on Spain, which she thought was quite unsporting, doncha know, dear chap. This treaty is signed in 1818 [a year earlier than the Adam-Onis treaty of OTL]. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Still, the mutually profitable agreement on tariffs on the Gulf Coast ports helps keep relations civil, even if not as friendly as they were. (Remember, too, that Spain was always a fairly prickly ally in the Napoleonic wars, not nearly as friendly as e.g. Portugal.)[/FONT]




[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Now, Britain doesn't want France to regain influence in the New World, so applies some minor back room pressure on France (but rather less pressure than iOTL). The French government does end up supplying some help to Spain (basically renting out some surplus regiments), and making it easy for Spain to hire demobbed soldiers for their forces. However, there are also massive numbers of demobbed Republican/Napoleonic soldiers in France, and the French government doesn't dare send too many of its loyal forces overseas. Nor does the French government want to be active enough to anger the British too much. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]On the other hand, the various independence movements have a field day hiring demobbed Napoleonic soldiers (attracted both by the money and by the idea of 'liberty'), although they can't get as many British soldiers as they did OTL (as most of the soldiers willing to go to far off lands have opted for free land in British North America, rather than hiring out as mercenaries.) OT3H, there are many British sailors dumped on the beach who have no interest in becoming farmers, and they do form the trained nucleus of some of the new Latin American navies, which therefore tend to be a pro-British element in local politics.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The French intervention has some interesting side-effects. Independence movements can understand the Spanish army fighting them – that's a civil war. French government soldiers, well, that's an invasion. The rebellions actually get MORE popular support from the French intervention than they would have with out it, so it doesn't end up doing the Spanish government any good in the long run, since the available French forces aren't as large or as overwhelming as the Spanish would wish. Thus the various nations become independent at about the same time as OTL.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]During the course of the rebellions, the British government stands off to the side, and is neutral. However, British merchants sail to South America, offering to sell to whoever will buy. Since the Spanish are trying to re-impose their monopolies, they don't buy much. But the revolutionaries need supplies, and are more than happy to buy whenever they can arrange to meet British ships. The British are more than happy to oblige, especially since their US markets have contracted so much (partly due to hostility, partly due to the US financial situation).[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Once the nations can successfully claim independence, the British flock in officially, setting up embassies and trade missions. [/FONT]
 
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Dathi

Sound like the most likely cause of events. Going to be some interesting results. Having French forces on both sides, with a fairly clear imperial/revolutionary v royal could have effects on events in France latter. Might also see a Bonapartist presence in Latin America, possibly even a throne offered to one of the family? Although this would be unpopular with all the European nations so might not be something that goes through. Depends on how much economic and political influence Britain has.

If the Spanish are having to pay for French support then their military position won't be a lot stronger and their likely to see internal problems earlier than OTL. [Both because of the extra drain on the treasury and because having to pay French troops with memories of the occupation fairly recent will rankle]. If not before Ferdinard dies then when he does there's going to be at least the historical amount of chaos.

Sounds like Britain will still be the main economic and political influence in Latin America but the involvement of the Bonapartist veterans might mean that if you get a revival in France that might see closer relations later on especially since baring anything extreme France is going to be the only major power, for quite a while, able to provide an alternative source of investment and technology to Britain.

I can see Spain being unhappy about Britain's stance but this could backfire badly if it decides that its concerns about Florida means it tries taking a harsh line there. Given Britain's links with many of the populations there it could well come off the fence on that issue. [If not America might also try something, although it will be markedly less attractive as a friend to the Indian and black elements and possibly also the Catholics who don't think of themselves as predominantly Spanish. A lot will depend on how Florida is being government but a bit difficult to see an autocratic Spain, seeking to crack down on dissent and unrest and concerned about the situation in Florida not trying to tighten its grip there and possibly triggering a clash with the locals.

The point I am uncertain of is whether the French intervention would be as irrelevant/negative in impact as you suggest. A lot would depend on how the troops were used and who commanded them. Think the forces involved on both sides were relatively small and often disorganised. Hence some well led and better trained and equipped forces could possibly be pretty effective. However it sounds like the units committed wouldn't be that large and probably under direct Spanish leadership, which would both probably be less efficient and mean some strain between the two groups.

What I was thinking the French might try, which could have had a dramatic impact, was that it commits French forces mainly from the less trusted elements of the former imperial army. Those would be very tough nuts and could do a lot of damage. At the same time their less likely to be able to do damage, or influence events in France, if they fight and in numbers dying, in Spanish America. [Given that virtually all the French population available for their army in this period would have seen service in Boney's armies sending those thoughly least reliable, under a couple of the old imperial marshals, is what I would have been tempted to do in that position].

Anyway, all that comes to mind for the moment. Thanks.

Steve
 
Of course, this doesn't take into account people like William Brown, who helped found the Argentine navy, right?
 
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]White Settlement in the years immediately following the war[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the lands controlled by the Confederacy, almost all the white settlement was demobilized soldiers (and their families) settled as an in-place militia near the US border, in particular near the forts there. This amounts to some 20k settlers, perhaps. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The Confederacy does allow individual farmers to settle in Indian settlements, and even a few white villages in Indian settled territory. These are allowed explicitly as 'model farms' where modern European agriculture is on display for the locals to learn from and emulate. In total, there are only 1k whites in these model farms. Indian settlement along the borders of the US is also rather more dense, and more intensive and European than elsewhere. (The Confederacy, while it knows it can't carry the entire load of protecting itself from US attack, wants to do as much as possible, as they know darned well that the Brits would take them over if they didn't.) Between losing some land to the US, and the influx of Indians from e.g. Michigan, the Confederacy knows it has to adopt more intensive agriculture to support a higher density of people in the land they have left.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Michigan, at the end of the war, is British controlled, even if the aboriginal rights of the Indians there haven't been extinguished yet. Still, it is obvious and understood that there will be major white settlement there. Thus, the local natives (with the aid of the Confederacy) negotiate land deals with the British/Canadians/Michiganders. These deals are very generous (by OTL standards) in terms of the land left to the locals, but the majority of the fertile land there is opened up to Canadian settlement. Many local Indians head south to the Confederacy, where they can be maîtres chez eux, as it were, but many also stay. Again, any whites who want to settle in the Indian held areas of Michigan have to get permission from the local tribe/nation. Some of these groups welcome some immigration, but most hold off. Many figure that there will be more than enough nearby white farmers that they can learn European techniques from without letting the camel's nose in their tent.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In OTL's Illinois, the picture is mixed. In the north, with Black Hawk's Sauk there is, again, very little white settlement, as they don't feel the pressure to change in quite the same way as those in the Confederacy do. The major exception is a lead-mining community at Galena. The Sauk didn't even invite in model farmers as they aren't as impressed with the urgency of adopting European farming methods. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the middle, white settlement floods in. The Illinois river valley was the supply/movement route from Lake Michigan/Chicago to Missouri/St .Louis. Before the war the Illinois militia had dispersed the Indian settlement at Peoria (Fort Prevost). So when the fort went in, white settlement moved in to support and supply it. Similarly at Fort Gourock, and to a lesser extent, all along the valley. To some extent, this was a military measure, but partly the locals had been forced to move out, and as there was no one to formally negotiate with, the whites just kind of moved in to fill the vacuum. Very soon those nations regretted not joining the Confederacy and when they did ask the Council to intervene, it did but rather half-heartedly. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The end result is that there is a whole strip of mostly white settlement running diagonally down the middle of Illinois. The Indians aren't kicked out – those that return to their old settlements are welcome, but they are rather swamped by the new white immigrants. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Missouri was already partly opened to white settlement, and most of the Indian nations who lived there had sided with the Americans in the war (to a greater or lesser extent), so they got rather short shrift in any land negotiations. Basically, the British/whites take most of the river bottom land that's suitable for agriculture, and the Indians are forced up onto the prairie.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]OTL's Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are somewhere in between. The nations there mostly fought with the British, but largely as part of the 'Gathering of the Nations' where they were paid, rather than as nations allied with the British. Thus they are treated 'fairly' by British lights, but not 'generously' as Tecumseh and Black Hawk's peoples are. (Tecumseh might not use the word 'generous'.) In particular, the British/Canadians slowly settle up the Mississippi River into Wisconsin and Minnesota, and along the shore of Lake Michigan. As of yet, there aren't enough settlers in the west to cause a lot of conflict with the natives. Some of the prairie nations furtherest east (some in Illinois, some in very eastern Iowa) start investigating cattle ranching, which is initially not very successful, but beats being tied down as dirt farmers. It also provides a living as bison move west beyond the growing human population.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Note that the white settlement is mostly in river valleys so far, for a couple of reasons. This is partly as a means of transporting goods to and from the farms, but mostly it was the land that was possible to work. Until the advent of the cast-steel mold plough, the tough prairie sod was almost impossible to turn with existing equipment. This means that, for the nonce, the prairies are left to Indians and ranchers (some of whom are both).[/FONT]

Just some thoughts and queries: What of the Red River Settlement.

Historically that land grant was in 1811. partly altruistic to settle some of those displaced by the highland clearances. but also a calculated move on the part of Lord Selkirk as head of the HBC to disrupt and even prevent the activities of the NWC in reaching the fur bearing regions of the North Western territory ( Which the HBC charter did not give them a monopoly on).

Your POD probably does not prevent this grant and the initial settlers from arriving via the Bay and thence down the Thompson in the York boats to Lake Winnipeg and Ft. Douglas.

However given events, its unlikely that the NWC activities can be disrupted. metis traders can simply travel a bit further south now circumventing the lands of the Assiniboia grant to the upper Minnesota River and thence down to the Mississippi. The NWC probably could build their own competing trade forts at OTL St. Paul and say Lake Traverse. You may not even get a Pemmican War, at least not in the same formatas OTL and ferocity between the HBC and NWC. Which would eventually lead to them being forced to merge.

So continued healthy commercial competition would seem to be in the air for the forseeable future.

From the North Western Territory, the NWC could reach the Oregon terr. That could still occur, but they do have the upper Missouri open to them if they like as well. From Oregon they will be able to compete with the HBC for the trade of the West coast as well into the Stikine as well as Russian Alaska.
 
Of course, this doesn't take into account people like William Brown, who helped found the Argentine navy, right?
Quite, although he will be able to hire more sailors (probably much like OTL). I suspect that Brown, who was pressed into the British navy is going to leave Argentina with an anti-British leaning in the navy, as opposed to Cochrane in Chile, for instance.
 
Just some thoughts and queries: What of the Red River Settlement.

Historically that land grant was in 1811. partly altruistic to settle some of those displaced by the highland clearances. but also a calculated move on the part of Lord Selkirk as head of the HBC to disrupt and even prevent the activities of the NWC in reaching the fur bearing regions of the North Western territory ( Which the HBC charter did not give them a monopoly on).

Your POD probably does not prevent this grant and the initial settlers from arriving via the Bay and thence down the Thompson in the York boats to Lake Winnipeg and Ft. Douglas.

However given events, its unlikely that the NWC activities can be disrupted. metis traders can simply travel a bit further south now circumventing the lands of the Assiniboia grant to the upper Minnesota River and thence down to the Mississippi. The NWC probably could build their own competing trade forts at OTL St. Paul and say Lake Traverse. You may not even get a Pemmican War, at least not in the same formatas OTL and ferocity between the HBC and NWC. Which would eventually lead to them being forced to merge.

So continued healthy commercial competition would seem to be in the air for the forseeable future.

From the North Western Territory, the NWC could reach the Oregon terr. That could still occur, but they do have the upper Missouri open to them if they like as well. From Oregon they will be able to compete with the HBC for the trade of the West coast as well into the Stikine as well as Russian Alaska.
One of the results of the NWC's proposing/enabling of the 'Gathering of the Nations' is that they are in much better odour in London, say.

They got themselves a priority deal south of Rupert's land, and got the HBC monopoly reduced to a preference. As you say, the NWC can follow the upper Missouri for largely untapped lands, which takes SOME pressure off their expansion into Rupert's land. Similarly, the HBC can now come south, but, they're a bit less agile. And going south negates some of their transportation advantage. Of course, the new canals and increased shipping on the Lakes will massively reduce the NWC's disadvantage. If they can get furs to Duluth, they can ship them by schooner all the way to Montreal without unloading... (Rather beats even a canot du maitre, eh?)


I don't see much difference in the Red River settlement, at the moment. Most of the new settlement is happening further south. Of course, there's going to be more development along the Red River (of the north), which will only help them. THey might expand south? I don't know yet. To be honest, I'm more interested in building up the Metis.
 
New England, after independence

New England, after independence



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]New England, on independence, finds herself in a strange place. Up 'til then, she had been the trading and industrial centre of the United States, with a somewhat captive market for her goods. Now, she's on the other side of the tariff and cultural barriers, and competing on a world stage with Britain, the world's champion industrial and trading power. Thus independence causes a significant crash in the New England economy.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]OTOH, the hatred of New England in the United States is, in many places, less than the hatred of Britain, so New England doesn't lose all her original markets. Also, the US has to ramp up her industry, and that takes time[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]New England also has an advantage in trading with Latin America. New England has no alliance with Spain, unlike Britain, and thus they don't have to pussyfoot around and pretend that their merchants are trading against government orders. They have a few warships (some built for the US and taken over by New England on independence, some bought from the RN as they wind down their fleet), and thus they can even provide some protection for their convoys against minor Spanish warships. Spain isn't sure what to do about that. On the one hand, they don't want commerce and supplies flowing to the rebels, and her fleet is much bigger, so she certainly COULD stop those ships. On the other hand, the New Englanders are very well trained (so Spain would be hurt in taking those ships), and, more importantly, Spain doesn't really want to get into a war with another sovereign country at this point (which attacking New England naval ships would certainly cause). Moreover, they have the worry that attacking New England naval vessels could trigger New England's treaty with Britain, and the Spanish navy is no match for the RN. Thus the escorted New England merchant ships are (relatively) unmolested. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The fact that the New Englanders have fought one revolutionary war, and revolted against two sets of overlords (Britain, then the US) gives them a lot of sympathy with and among the Latin American rebels. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Another thing that New England has going for her is gold. Her banks held much of the gold that had been in the US before the split, and while she has some debt, it is nothing like the debt of the US or of Britain (even per capita or relative to the whole economy). Thus, in terms of providing loans, or investing in new ventures (mostly in the New World, but even in Europe and Asia), she can provide very competitive finance. Thus much of the new canal building in Canada has New England money involved, and some of the industrial investment in the United States does, too.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The end result is that New England has a rough stretch for a while, and then regroups and does OK. The commercial ventures in Canada also encourage ties and exchanges. [/FONT]
 
Hmm, sounds interesting for New England, Daði. This made me chuckle:

The fact that the New Englanders have fought one revolutionary war, and revolted against two sets of overlords (Britain, then the US) gives them a lot of sympathy with and among the Latin American rebels.

All in all, sounds like some good circumstances for New England. :cool:
 
Hmm, sounds interesting for New England, Daði. This made me chuckle:
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The fact that the New Englanders have fought one revolutionary war, and revolted against two sets of overlords (Britain, then the US) gives them a lot of sympathy with and among the Latin American rebels. [/FONT]

Well, you know, I was writing the thing up, and there'd been some discussion here about Britain trading with Latin America, and whether they'd support Spain or the Rebels; and then I was thinking about much earlier conversations (before I ever started this thread) about who/what inspired the rebels more, the American or the French revolution, and somehow I had this inspiration that the New Englanders could really have street cred with the rebels, and vice versa. So, I really had to throw it in.

One of the interesting things I find as I write this is the stuff that just ... well, sort of appears. Things I never knew until I researched something else, or things that just appear as I'm writing.

Another thing is that I can't write too far ahead. I had a wonderful battle scene planned, and all written out, near Indianapolis, with plans for how to get there, and then the history just took a different turn and I had to throw 90% out!
 
New England, after independence



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]New England, on independence, finds herself in a strange place. Up 'til then, she had been the trading and industrial centre of the United States, with a somewhat captive market for her goods. Now, she's on the other side of the tariff and cultural barriers, and competing on a world stage with Britain, the world's champion industrial and trading power. Thus independence causes a significant crash in the New England economy.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]OTOH, the hatred of New England in the United States is, in many places, less than the hatred of Britain, so New England doesn't lose all her original markets. Also, the US has to ramp up her industry, and that takes time[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]New England also has an advantage in trading with Latin America. New England has no alliance with Spain, unlike Britain, and thus they don't have to pussyfoot around and pretend that their merchants are trading against government orders. They have a few warships (some built for the US and taken over by New England on independence, some bought from the RN as they wind down their fleet), and thus they can even provide some protection for their convoys against minor Spanish warships. Spain isn't sure what to do about that. On the one hand, they don't want commerce and supplies flowing to the rebels, and her fleet is much bigger, so she certainly COULD stop those ships. On the other hand, the New Englanders are very well trained (so Spain would be hurt in taking those ships), and, more importantly, Spain doesn't really want to get into a war with another sovereign country at this point (which attacking New England naval ships would certainly cause). Moreover, they have the worry that attacking New England naval vessels could trigger New England's treaty with Britain, and the Spanish navy is no match for the RN. Thus the escorted New England merchant ships are (relatively) unmolested. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The fact that the New Englanders have fought one revolutionary war, and revolted against two sets of overlords (Britain, then the US) gives them a lot of sympathy with and among the Latin American rebels. [/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Another thing that New England has going for her is gold. Her banks held much of the gold that had been in the US before the split, and while she has some debt, it is nothing like the debt of the US or of Britain (even per capita or relative to the whole economy). Thus, in terms of providing loans, or investing in new ventures (mostly in the New World, but even in Europe and Asia), she can provide very competitive finance. Thus much of the new canal building in Canada has New England money involved, and some of the industrial investment in the United States does, too.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The end result is that New England has a rough stretch for a while, and then regroups and does OK. The commercial ventures in Canada also encourage ties and exchanges. [/FONT]

Dathi

Looking good for the New England Republic? [Presumably that would be its formal title? Enabled me to shorten it to NER.;)]. Might be as you suggest, the least objectionable source of industrial goods for the Americans, although a lot will depend on what happens in the US. If any group seeks to win back the NER that would mean significantly different policies from any approach which accepts them as lost/blames them for the defeat.

Could be both of course with various other matters. Probably a lot of turbulence in the US politically while it adjusts to the new situation. Have you decided what will be happening there?

Presuming also there might be more open US support for rebels in Latin America, to get back at Spain, find allies and trading partners and possibly some early Walker types.

Wondering as well if there's going to be a Texas-type scenario in TTL. Might still have the new Mexican government welcoming settlers in such a thinly populated border region. However would they be Americans, British, a mixture along with possibly other groups? Also if disatisfaction with Mexico develops would they be able to bury their differencies and how would Britain and America feel about such events?

Looking good.

Steve
 
Dathi

Looking good for the New England Republic? [Presumably that would be its formal title? Enabled me to shorten it to NER.;)].
Title... Hmmm... I think the NATURAL title would be something like the "Republic of New England" or the "New England Confederation". However, given that they are taking the US Constitution as their own with minor changes, I think maybe they do a search and replace, changing "United States of America" to "United States of New England". This emphasizes their position that they are the true heirs of the original country, and that the remaining US has been the ones to deviate from the Founders' intent... Of course, no one CALLS them that, it's too close to the USA. Like Mexico or Brazil, no one refers to the USM or USB (OK, EUM or EUB), so no one really refers to the USNE, but just to NE.

Might be as you suggest, the least objectionable source of industrial goods for the Americans, although a lot will depend on what happens in the US. If any group seeks to win back the NER that would mean significantly different policies from any approach which accepts them as lost/blames them for the defeat.

Could be both of course with various other matters. Probably a lot of turbulence in the US politically while it adjusts to the new situation. Have you decided what will be happening there?
Not entirely. The elections in 1816 will be ... interesting. there will be districts where 5 or 6 candidates run and the winner will have 25% of the vote... Monroe will win the presidency, based on being one of the few effective figures in the war. Federalists are dead, and the Democratic Republicans will splinter. Beyond that, I'm not quite so sure... Need to do a little more research.

Presuming also there might be more open US support for rebels in Latin America, to get back at Spain, find allies and trading partners and possibly some early Walker types.
The US might very well wish to support the Latin American rebellions. But she's rather distracted at home. She's got a smaller, and less global merchant fleet than New England does; she's got less valuable goods for sale (at worst New England merchants can load up with cheap high quality goods in London or Bristol and sail to Argentina, say; at best they load up with medium priced good quality goods in Boston) ; and the US is in no financial position to be spending any significant sums abroad on exporting arms, e.g. By the time the US is on its feet and able to do that, the rebellions have won, and she's a Johnny-come-lately. Oh, I'm not saying she won't have any influence, but not as much as she might.

If she tries filibustering, most of Latin America will despise her, but that wouldn't stop her. Don't know what's going to happen there.

Wondering as well if there's going to be a Texas-type scenario in TTL.
Be patient...
 
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