An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

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Just a thought, if the Ottoman face this kind of trouble, Italy will probably join the fray to secure Libya and due to the timeframe can butterfly away great part of the Italo-Abyssinian war.
At the moment Italy occupy the region of the Tigrè for security reason and to enlarge the colony but there are attempt to come to a diplomatic solution as the endevour is expensive and not all the goverment (or the population) is behind it...OTL there were contradictory directive and frankly Crispi desired a short and victorious colonial victory for prestige reason (his prestige).
An Italy that meddle in Libya will not bother Abyssinia, limiting her request to some land in the Tigrè and some symbolic reparation...as there are a limit of her resources.
Another player is Greece, with Crete occupied by the UK...there will be request of the islanders to be annexed at Greece and Athens had claim on a lot of Ottoman clay, so can decided to start a war a couple of year earlier of OTL.
 

yboxman

Banned
Nice update,looks like the Ottoman Empire going down early and man that was ugly.

It was. It was also a fairly accurate representation of what Yudenitch and the Armenian volunteers did OTL in 1915. Enver pasha and the Hamidye before him did much, much worse. Don't believe in glossing over those parts of history.

How does the war affect the Ottoman regions which were occupied by foreign power prior to this war (Bosnia, Cyprus, Egypt)?

An "understanding" regarding Egypt is a prequisite of Anglo-Russian and to some extent French cooperation. The actual mode of administration (veiled protectorate) does not change however. Cyprus will almost certainly be annexed. I think you can assume Bosnia, and Novi Pazar as well, will be annexed as compensation for any gains Russia makes. Russia may, or may not take this with good grace.

The empire of the Sublime Porte does share borders with empires of Britain and France in Africa and Arabia.
Why is Ahmed Djemal in denial of this fact?

Blame the author rather than Djemal Pasha.:)

That said, the Mashriq and the Mhagreb were generally indirectly rule and to some extent still are even in 1895. They are not viewed as integral to the EMpire the way Anatolia and the Balkans are. And the CUPs priorities in WWI reveal as much.

Furthermore, it is not metropolitan Britain and France who border the Ottoman empire (Well, OK, Algeirs might include some Saharan border with Tripoli but you know what I mean) but their empires. The point is that while both might seek influence and indirect control that's a #4 type danger rather than a#1-#3 type danger that Russia presents.

How would the territory of the restored Dozhik emirate look like?

about the same as the extent of the Zaza-Alevi dominant population, perhaps a bit more. Alevi-Zaza.png


I hope the Ottoman Empire survives, but stripped of many of its Asian vilayets yet retaining most of its European vilayets (weaker, less prepared Balkan states are not able to get more ITTL).


The Balkan states are weaker and less prepared in 1895 than 1911 (OTOH, Greece launched it's war in 1896). But OTOH the Balkan garrisons are being stripped bare of reserves defend Anatolia from the Russian horde.

I will say that would make an interesting outcome. I often wondered how a Ottoman state which did NOT defeat the Mamelukes and Sassanids and stayed out of the Mashriq and Mhagreb (and Eastern Anatolia) but still expanded into Europe would develop.

I would expect concentrated attack of Balkan states ( Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro ) on Turkish European possessions. To take the advantage of having the Turks occupied elsewhere...

To be sure, Athenes and Sofia and Belgrade and Montenegro are contemplating exactly that. The problem is that none of the great powers want them to. The proto entente never thought the "police action" in Armenia would prvoke so much resistance and turn into a real war. The last thing they want is to reopen the entire Eastern question and risk general European war.

Of course the best laid plans of mice and men...

Just a thought, if the Ottoman face this kind of trouble, Italy will probably join the fray to secure Libya and due to the timeframe can butterfly away great part of the Italo-Abyssinian war.
At the moment Italy occupy the region of the Tigrè for security reason and to enlarge the colony but there are attempt to come to a diplomatic solution as the endevour is expensive and not all the goverment (or the population) is behind it...OTL there were contradictory directive and frankly Crispi desired a short and victorious colonial victory for prestige reason (his prestige).
An Italy that meddle in Libya will not bother Abyssinia, limiting her request to some land in the Tigrè and some symbolic reparation...as there are a limit of her resources.

Diversion of Italian attention to Libya (Or even Yemen) is indeed a possibility. If italian Colonial adventurism is never humiliated it may seek farther afield (China?) for colonial concessions.

Another player is Greece, with Crete occupied by the UK...there will be request of the islanders to be annexed at Greece and Athens had claim on a lot of Ottoman clay, so can decided to start a war a couple of year earlier of OTL.

One of the reason Britain occupied Crete is to prevent Greece from Jumping on it. That might set off a feeding Frenzy amongst the Balkan powers and it doesn't want that.

Alevi-Zaza.png
 
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It was. It was also a fairly accurate representation of what Yudenitch and the Armenian volunteers did OTL in 1915. Enver pasha and the Hamidye before him did much, much worse. Don't believe in glossing over those parts of history.



An "understanding" regarding Egypt is a prequisite of Anglo-Russian and to some extent French cooperation. The actual mode of administration (veiled protectorate) does not change however. Cyprus will almost certainly be annexed. I think you can assume Bosnia, and Novi Pazar as well, will be annexed as compensation for any gains Russia makes. Russia may, or may not take this with good grace.



Blame the author rather than Djemal Pasha.:)

That said, the Mashriq and the Mhagreb were generally indirectly rule and to some extent still are even in 1895. They are not viewed as integral to the EMpire the way Anatolia and the Balkans are. And the CUPs priorities in WWI reveal as much.

Furthermore, it is not metropolitan Britain and France who border the Ottoman empire (Well, OK, Algeirs might include some Saharan border with Tripoli but you know what I mean) but their empires. The point is that while both might seek influence and indirect control that's a #4 type danger rather than a#1-#3 type danger that Russia presents.



about the same as the extent of the Zaza-Alevi dominant population, perhaps a bit more. View attachment 265350





The Balkan states are weaker and less prepared in 1895 than 1911 (OTOH, Greece launched it's war in 1896). But OTOH the Balkan garrisons are being stripped bare of reserves defend Anatolia from the Russian horde.

I will say that would make an interesting outcome. I often wondered how a Ottoman state which did NOT defeat the Mamelukes and Sassanids and stayed out of the Mashriq and Mhagreb (and Eastern Anatolia) but still expanded into Europe would develop.

Well there is also A-H that will be want a piece of the cake of the Ottoman Empire...and this can create strange alliance in the region. Vienna will have probably thought to help the Ottoman but with the protoentente ganging up against the Porte...it will much much healthier shut up and trying to grab something.


To be sure, Athenes and Sofia and Belgrade and Montenegro are contemplating exactly that. The problem is that none of the great powers want them to. The proto entente never thought the "police action" in Armenia would prvoke so much resistance and turn into a real war. The last thing they want is to reopen the entire Eastern question and risk general European war.

Of course the best laid plans of mice and men...

I've a bad feeling about this


Diversion of Italian attention to Libya (Or even Yemen) is indeed a possibility. If italian Colonial adventurism is never humiliated it may seek farther afield (China?) for colonial concessions.

Yes and No. While no Adwa and the all Abyssinian mess and the addition of the possible acquisition of Libya mean that the italian adventurism will remain a viable politics, there are also other factor that come against it aka the general mood of the population, at the moment not very happy to pay the price in blood and tresure for it, and the finance of the Kingdom.
Max possible that italian can get in this period are Libya, some or all the region of the Tigrè (in exchange of the abrogation of the Treaty of Uccialì) and maybe some island near Eritrea now in Ottoman hand.
In China there is just the possibility of a treaty port in the south, OTL Italy almost bluffed it's way with the chinese goverment in obtaining one, maybe with the italians not burned by Abyssinia and more forcefull things will go as planned by Rome...but that will be all Italy can get

Problem can arise in the horn of Africa with Cassala, at the moment under italian occupation after being conquered from the Madhist. OTL Adwa forced a general retreat at the pre-war border and so the italian garrison left, and so in 1897 it was given back to the Anglo-Egyptian.
No defeat can mean that there will be some...reluctance in give it away.



One of the reason Britain occupied Crete is to prevent Greece from Jumping on it. That might set off a feeding Frenzy amongst the Balkan powers and it doesn't want that.

The British soldiers will have a nice job trying to block the people of the island to kill each others.
 

yboxman

Banned
Post #15 Yalu bound

August 1895 Pyongyang, Northern Korea.

Ito Harabe was exhausted by the night march but exhilarated as well. He, a mere farmer's son from Hiroshima-ken, had had the honor of being amongst the first to land at Busan and had participated in every major battle with the Qing forces and now, now he would have a chance to partake in it's last.

"Remember", Lieutinant Shigero hisses while they position themselves for the dawn assault on the walls of Pyongyang "Once we take Pyongyang the Qing have nowhere left to run! Destroy their army here and their crone of an empress will have no choice but to recognize Japan's rightful claims!"

In truth, Ito was not quite certain what those claims were. Surely, Japan could not allow Qing troops in Korea. But did that mean that men like him must remain in Korea even after the Qing were gone? The Koreans surely did not want them to remain. He had beaten off too many Tonghak raids, and had participated in enough punitive and rice gathering expeditions against villages eerily similar to his own home to be quite certain of that.

"Does that mean we will return to Nippon after we take the city Sir?"

He would be glad to go home after the Qing were gone. He had gathered enough memories to last a lifetime in the past six months and would looked forward to nothing more than sharing them over a bottle of Sake with adoring cronies at the end of a day's work in the Rice Paddies. Well… share some of them. He would be happy to never remember, let alone speak, of what he saw and did in the sack of Seoul. Though he had picked up some very memorable loot in the process.

Shigero is a good officer. And a patient one. Of course, he too is a Hiroshima man. Other officers would have given him a kick in the Ribs for asking such an impertinent question. Instead, he actually receives an answer.

"Are you a loyal soldier of the emperor?"

"Hai!"

"Then will you fight Nippon's enemies as long as he thinks necessary?"

"Hai!"

Shigero permits himself a slight smile at the dutiful reponse. "I do not think we will need to fight much longer for the Qing to surrender. But we are soldiers and this is war- we must be prepared to do our duty to the utmost. Is this not so?"

If the assent is slightly too ragged and perhaps a smudge less than fully enthusiastic, Shigero makes a good job of not noticing it. In truth, he is worried as well. Perhaps half of his platoon are replacements for men killed or injured too much to fight. And many of the units which had started the campaign are strung all the way back to Busan, struggling to maintain Japan's grip and extract much needed supplies from a countryside seething with rebellion.

But they have won every battle and they will win this one as well. After that… Well, after that they should be able to pacify Korea.

Dawn comes too soon to catch any sleep. But his men are well positioned. Half an hour after the diversionary attacks begin the signal to launch their portion of the assault is given. The ancient walls of Pyongyang had been reinforced- but they cannot match the power of modern artillery. He leads his men into the breech created by their artillery, bludgeoning a Qing soldier who flees too slowly.

Then, making sure that his men have properly advanced, he charges through the breech and into the city's streets, seeking to outflank the Qing soldiers defending the walls from the diversionary assault.

Blocking their way is a ragged cluster of Qing soldiers behind an improvised breastwork. He has a moment to wonder what the odd contraption in their midst is before the Maxim machine Gun begins its deadly chatter and very nearly slices him in two.

Ito does not understand how the deadly stream of bullets spat out by the diabolic machine has missed him. Nor does he know why it has suddenly stopped. But he does know that he can not stay in place and wait for it to resume. He can only advance or retreat. And a Japanese soldier never retreats.

The Qing soldiers scatter as he charges, the ragged remmanents of the platoon behind him. The machine gun operator, however, stays a moment too long, attemting to unjam his weapon. He is Bayoneted a moment before the Maxim resumes its deadly chatter.

" Mamochka…"

Filled with rage at the death of Shigero, Ito and the other soldiers cuts off his screams with the buts of their rifles. It is only after he is dead that it they register that he is neither Chinese nor Korean.
 
"Brave Korean Soldier Lee-Si-Tzin" 60+ years before OTL?:) That's interesting.
P.S. The pun is from a song about Russian "specialists" assisting the Koreans in OTL Korean war.
 

yboxman

Banned
rossiyskaya imperiya?

Da.

Maybe a Russian division just happened to go on vacation in the Korean peninsula. :p

Perhaps a Russian soldier who “volunteered” to fight for the Qing.

Russian mercenary?

"Brave Korean Soldier Lee-Si-Tzin" 60+ years before OTL?:) That's interesting.
P.S. The pun is from a song about Russian "specialists" assisting the Koreans in OTL Korean war.

Nope. It's an albazinian.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albazinians

Or so the Russian ambassador will insist, possibly with a straight face, at least until the Near Eastern question is resolved.

And yes, you can expect growing numbers of Soviet, err, Tsarist specialists to assist their fraternal autocracy.
 
And yes, you can expect growing numbers of Soviet, err, Tsarist specialists to assist their fraternal autocracy.
So it looks like there is an secret alliance between Russia and the Qing.
A question though,will the Soviet Union still arise ITTL or has that been butterflied away?
 
By the way, regarding the "Balkan Feeding Frenzy" question - top 3 or so candidates for George's future wife come from this region. And the Tsar is still a single man.
Hmmm...we can still end up with a marriage alliance causing all sorts of trouble for foreign policy. In the (pretty wank'ish from my point of view) "Tsar George" TL from fai.org.ru George cut the Gordian knot by marrying Helene d'Orleans (conversion issues butterflied away).
 
By the way, regarding the "Balkan Feeding Frenzy" question - top 3 or so candidates for George's future wife come from this region. And the Tsar is still a single man.
Hmmm...we can still end up with a marriage alliance causing all sorts of trouble for foreign policy. In the (pretty wank'ish from my point of view) "Tsar George" TL from fai.org.ru George cut the Gordian knot by marrying Helene d'Orleans (conversion issues butterflied away).

Tsar George have already married with Elena of Montenegro
 

yboxman

Banned
Post #16: domestic Affairs

June 1895, St Petersburg


Married life was… not what she expected. She knew, of course, that her marriage must be political. Her homeland was small and its independence, wedged between Polgot Austria, the declining but still mighty Ottoman empire, imperialistic Italy and ambitious Serbia precacious.
But she had still dreamed of romance. And, having belatedly given up on those girlish dreams, at least hoped for friendship.

George seemed at first to be all she could hope for. Handsome and intelligent, experienced in the ways of the world in a way she had not been permitted to be, and not at all shy. And of course, Sole autocrat of the largest land empire on the Planet, and the head of the Orthodox Church. A vanity, perhaps, but the thought of besting her elder sisters was a temptation. And of course George was no stranger and his capital a home far more familiar to her than her native hills.

His courtship was, in retrospect, wildly inappropriate and not only due to it's proximity to Alexander III's funeral. Nikola, her father, was clearly willing to overlook propriety in order to secure the marriage and had approved, following a few chaperoned events, George's invitation for an unchaperoned barge ride on the Oka.

It was the first time she had ever been kissed.

Carried away by the moment she had permitted him to take greater liberities than she had imagined he might, and did not insist he desist overmuch when his hands suffused unfamiliar sensations through her body (1). When he did withdraw, leaving her flustered and red faced she accepted his protestations of being overwhelmed by her beauty. The next day she breathlessly assented to his proposal.

Decency required she return to Montenegro for a interval before they wed and she pined away every day waiting for their reunion. She wrote to him every day long, sometimes tear stained letters. In retrospect his own responses seemed, though well written, to be dutiful, rote and almost perfunctory.

But of course, he was Tsar. He had an empire to govern. And it would be different, of course, when they lived together.

Their wedding day, when it finally occurred, was the most joyous day of her life. And the wedding night… she had been fearful of being unable to please him, and of the pain of course, but he skillfully calmed her fears. The pain was less than she expected, and far less than her pleasure both physical and at the validation of her womanhood. And if she grew to desire him, and the sexual act more than her upbringing said she must then what of it? Her mother and her priest was far away and she was in St.Petersburg, the Paris of the east.

And then, after their brief honeymoon cruise to Denmark and England he disappeared.

There were railways to build, reforms to oversee, armies to inspect. Aside from dinner and the long, torturously pleasant nights that followed she saw little of her husband. It did not bother her too much at first. Her sisters, and his own family were gracious and St Petersburg and it’s social and artistic events a marvel.
But he never seemed to want to talk with her overmuch, telling her little of his day, and showing only perfunctory interest in her own. Much as she sought to share her feelings, experiences and thoughts with him he never shared his own conflicts and insecurities with her. She knew there was more to his soul than he revealed to her. While they still slept together she would be awakened occasionally by his nightmares (2).

But he would not speak to her of them. And she realized, after a time, that he did not share with her his true concerns and dilemmas in the business of the state either. Not, at lease, as her father had done with her mother. Was it because he thought this was not a proper topic for women, let alone his own wife? Did he simply not value her mind, not view her as his equal? Or did he find her curiosity, her intelligence, her convictions offensive, even frightening?

She hungered for meaning, for purpose in her life beyond the façade of Ballet and the theater, beyond the social games and flirtation with the occult her sisters practiced. When she found she was with child she thought, for a time, that this purpose had been found.

Her pregnancy had lifted her from the growing malaise she felt. Though they no longer shared a bedroom, out of concern for the development of the child, she felt a purpose in her life that her prior patronage of art and charity could not match.

She felt, too, that Geroge now paid her greater attention and spent far more time in her company. She even felt that their conversations were growing less superficial, more significant.

And then she miscarried the child.

When was it, in the depression that followed, that she realized her husband was having an affair? Was it an innocent question asked by Olga about "the lady"? Was it an incongruity in the schedule he absentmindedly described to her with what she read in the papers?

Whoever she was, she did not wish to know. She knew, at least what she no doubt was. Petite and curvaceous rather than tall and gangly. Striking rather than plain. Chatty and alluring rather than shy and withdrawn. Sexually shameless, even aggressive, rather than passive. Probably older than him, and experienced rather than Naïve. Flighty where she was serious and focused. She was everything she could never be and she had no ability or desire to compete with.
But nor did she intend to wane away or waste her days pining for what could never be. She was Tsarina, wherever her Tsar spent his nights, and she would make the most of it.

"Have you heard from your father recently?"

The question startled her. Since the war had started George had taken to sifting over reports during breakfast, and often the entire meal would pass with little discourse. It was a blessing they often shared their meals with his family else she long since would have been driven mad by the solitude.
Today, however, they dined alone.

"I have. It seems Anna will soon be betrothed"

His head rises fully from the report.

"To Victorio Emanuel? I had thought there were… difficulties (3)?"

"There were. His family has consented to Anna keeping her faith provided their children are raised in accordance with the Catholic faith. Is this significant to the course of the war?"

"It's not a war yet. Haven't you heard? The British are still calling it a "Humanitarian intervention". Our men are dying in the mountains of the caucaus while their Indian mercenaries are marching up the blains of Babylon with no Ottoman interference."

He recollects his thoughts.

"Yes, this Italian concession is significant. It may mean that Italy is preparing to actualize their claims on Tripoli and wishes to guarantee Ottoman non-interference by the threat of an alliance with Montenegro and the other Balkan states."

"Could you not do the same? The Ottomans may be prepared to tolerate French and British boots on their soil, but they would surely be forced to draw troops to deal with the threat of war by Montenegro and the other Balkan states."

"They might- but that would involve Austria and Germany. I will not accept the same humiliation my Grandfather did. If this affair shall be settled by a second Berlin conference then our soldiers must make more progress and ensure there are no Turks in the lands we hold when the conference begins."

"Do the generals have hope for a breakthrough?"

"Kuropatkin, at least, is honest. He says he cannot hope to advance into the upper Euphrates before August. It will take him that long to marshal enough supplies and shells, and extend the railway sufficiently westward, to break through the Ottoman lines west of Erzurum. It would go much better, of course, if Alekseyev would cease delaying the Trebizon landings"

The place names were almost totally unfamiliar to Elena prior to the war. Now, like every literate Russian, she has eagerly pored over maps showing the advance of the double eagle into the lands of the crescent. That is unimportant now, however. What is important is that she has her opening.

"There have been reports of terrible suffering in the field hospitals at the front. A terrible lack in doctors and nurses"

George frowns.

"Indeed. We will need to undertake a general military reform after the war to correct errors uncovered during it. The hospitals are the least of it. Shell shortages, insufficient NCOs, outdated doctrines… It is as bad as the great Bulgarian war. But it is better that we learn our faults fighting against the Turk than against a Great Power".

"I have thought of going to Armenia."

George gapes like a fish.

"You? Whatever for?"

"To look after the wounded. And the displaced. Do you remember the refugee camps in Yerevan? Surely there are many more Christians fleeing the atrocities of the Turk. And they too need succor".

"But you have no experience in medicine!"

She meets his eyes head on and draws her chin up.

"I have cared for the wounded of the Great Turkish war when I was still a small girl. I too have seen the angel of death face to face. So too, have my sisters. What we are lacking in formal knowledge we can learn."

Is that a glimmer of respect in his eyes? Or is he simply calculating how much more time he would have for his amorous pursuits if she and her sisters were on the other side of the Empire?

"Besides" she continues in a firm voice "I am Tsarina am I not? The people expect that I should do my part in this war, limited as I am by my Sex. It will comfort them if they know I witness, even if I cannot share, the travails of their sons".

"While I remain at home knitting and looking after the affairs of the state?" he teases her, a hint of the old sparkle in his voice.

She carefully smears her bread with Jam and takes a bite, perhaps fuller than a lady should.

"Are you jealous?"

Nicholas smiles as he remembers the mountains of the Caucasus.

"Perhaps. We will discuss this… tonight."

A victory then. And not a small one. Now she only needs to convince her sisters.


(1) Victorian era. We're talking pretty elementary gropings here, but the erotic impact is that much higher for being forbidden and taboo. The modern world really lost something when nudity stopped being much of a muchness.
(2) PTSD. It's a bitch when left undiagnosed, let alone when it's unrecognized as an actual treatable condition.
(3) Religious differences.
 
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abc123

Banned
I wouldn't say that Elena was so "dumb" as portrayed here... At least she was educated in St. Petersburg's Smolny Institute...
 
Niece piece, I hope that George grows a bit fonder of his wife, the miscarriage has been a though blow, but maybe it is not irreparable yet. The two are young after all... I don't mean to say that George shouldn't sleep around, but it would be nice if he didn't take some stable mistress, and grew to be at least a friend of his wife. The last lines allude to a (re)kindling of romance maybe?

She doesn't strike me as dull, on the contrary! And the idea of visiting the field hospitls will no doubt much increase her popularity with the people.

IOTL she really worked as a nurse during WWI and studied medicine, earning an honoris causa degree. In occasion of the 1908 Messina Earthquake she visited the suffering populations and created a system of "autographed pictures" to rise funds, so I think that her actions are a realistic outcome of her own character.
 
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