An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

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abc123

Banned
In 1910. The AUstrian census of 1879 recorded them at 39% of the population- AFTER the 1875-1878 events, and large-scale flight of Muslims estimated at 150,000 out of 1.2 million (serbs fled as well of course, but they returned after the war).

Which would probably make them 46% of the population prior to 1875 (The Ottoman census of 1875 recorded 51% Muslims but that was probably an overcount) - still a plurality rather than a Majority but one that dominated the cities and economic life and was a majority in large parts of the province.

Of course, just as Hungarians viewed Transylvania as Magyar, and Serbs Kosovo and Vojvodina as Serb, The actual demographic makeup of specific contested regions did not much make much of an impression on the popular imagination of the "nation" involved.

Let us agree that regardless of which group was actually the largest in Bosnia in 1875 the Muslims were sufficiently numerous and dominant for the Turkish elites to view the province as rightfully "Muslim" and to be outraged at it's alienation and subsequesnt flight and diminishment of it's Muslim component.

Yes, of course that evereything in politics is a matter of perception. But, in 1870 Turks had every reason to overstate the number of Muslims, while in 1910 Austrians had no reason whatsoever to overstate the number of Serbs ( or Croats for that matter ).
 
A big ass battle of the fog is a out to begin. With reduced visibility and tight quarters it may become a bloodbath. Which will be the winner and how well will the surviving fleet do with future enemies.
 
I expect some of the Chinese fleets fire on each other and cause further bad blood. Or the Chinese fire on a foreign ship. American or Siamese perhaps.
 
I expect some of the Chinese fleets fire on each other and cause further bad blood. Or the Chinese fire on a foreign ship. American or Siamese perhaps.


It may be a combination of all of these theories. Japan loses, Chinese fleets attack one another, and some Europeans will get killed.

To what the truth is will have to wait.
 
I bet a chinese clusterfuck, and a japanese increíble and unjust, in the sense the fleet arrive when all is naugth,víctory and Take what is left
bump
This is a Really good Timeline
 
Really looking forward to the naval showdown! Will the Jdpanese pull out a miracle victory, or will they be destroyed by the superior numbers on the Chinese side?
 

yboxman

Banned
Post #13: Never bring a battleship to a knife fight


Yellow sea, Japanese flagship Hashidate May 2nd 1895 1400

Itō Sukeyuki coughs a wad of bloody phlegm into his sleeve.

The gunnery officer on the Zhenyuan had been entirely too competent, successfully getting one salvo ftom his big guns across to his two, and a scattering of individual barrages in the brief minutes before their initial course and the Fog had broken up contact between their ships.

The fog is nearly gone now, but steam from ruptured pipes makes visibility difficult and he stumbles over the corpse of his exec as he navigates his way off the ruins of his bridge.

One of the enemies shells had landed entirely too close for comfort, the shock catapulting him into the deck, and breaking his ribs. In spite of his disadvantageous position, with the Qing vessel exposed only to his foreguns at the engagement's beginning while his own foredeck lay athrawt his enemies broadside, his better trained and faster reacting gunners had scored more hits. Unfortunately, none seem to have had much effect on the enemy ships thick armor plating.

"Damage report?"

Worse, the captain of the Zhenyuan had shown all too much agrresiveness, turning his ship to cut across the tail of his own, and signaling other ships in the Qing fleet to do the same. He had been forced him to do the same to avoid placing his undergunned rear athrawt the enemy fleet broadside yet again, leading, in effect to the fleets to chase each other's tails.


"We've lost four more turrents and are leaking off the starboard bow!"

It is a maneuver which should have favored the swifter, better coordinated Japanese fleet. Except, of course, that the fog had made any coordination near impossible, as well of robbing him of the advantage of possessing the enemy code books (1). While the fleets had largely followed the initial course set by the lead ships they failed to maintain formation as they engaged, and sought to evade or improve their position Vs the enemy ships they encountered. Instead of the well coordinated battle of maneuver he envisaged the naval enagagement had degenerated into a general melee, a cat and mouse game in the fog between single ships.

"The fog is nearly gone- how is the rest of the fleet doing?"

It is a game in which his crew's training, bravery and skill, and the superior armaments of his ship, had given him a crucial edge against the slower and older Qing cruisers. Few of them showed the same aggressiveness or skill as the Battleship he first encountered. But there were many of them and it was impossible to maneuver his ships to gang up on strays and avoid being mobbed. Twice he found himself firing and being fired upon from both starboard and stern, and once from starboard, stern, bow and aft in close succession.


"Chiyoda, Hiei and Akagi are gone sir."

The older, smaller ships. They could not expect to do as well in this knife fight as the newer vessels.

"The others?"

" Fusō is listing badly. And Takachiho's engines are gone- they are barely containing the fires. All the others seem to have taken damage, but non quite as bad as ours."

"The troop ships? The transports?"

" Hiei and Akagi seem to have sacrificed themselves to screen their withdrawal. I can see a few wrecks, but not many. Perhaps three quarters of them slipped away to the southwest."

Which means one quarter hasn’t. That's 3000 soldiers lost at sea without the chance to fight back. Half again the army casualties so far on land, and all dead. How many more, if he were defeated or broke off to the North? The transports were too slow to avoid dedicated pursuit by the enemy cruisers.

Still, he had no doubt that his fleet could have hunted down the more numerous enemy cruisers like a pack of wolves amongst a herd of caribou if it weren't for the enemy's twin Battleships. Their massive guns had accounted, he suspected, for well over half of the damage wrought upon his fleet, scouring the ocean like a pair of ravenous Levanthians. Worse, they seemed impervious to the Japanese guns, even the heaviest. While they were afloat he could not disengage, not without leaving those of his ships whose speed had been compromised by damage to be slaughtered, perhaps even captured as prizes if their captains prized the lives of their sailors above their duty to the emperor. No doubt the enemy admiral had the same considerations- which left them both trapped in a fight neither could abandon.


Which was why he had risked engaging the enemy flagship when he chanced across it, seeking to repeat the tail chasing maneuver he had unintentionally performed with its twin. For the past twenty minutes he had managed to keep it engaged without exchanging much in the way of effective fire- and thereby freeing his other ships from its threat, and allowing them to clear the seas of the enemy cruisers. Maintaining contact with the enemy flagship had additional advantages when one possessed their naval codes of course, advantages which would manifest now that the Fog had cleared.

"Admiral! Their flagship is signaling the Zhenyuan to assist in finishing us off, and is the cruisers to withdraw and form a line of battle around it! It's also instructing two of their sloops to pursue the transports!"

Better than half the enemy cruisers and sloops were flaming wrecks, of course. And the Jiyuan, hit by a lucky torpedo, is reduced in speed though still mighty in armament. Just as his own ship, retains it's speed for now but has lost too many of it's turrents to present an effeive broadside.With the Qing battleships still intact they might yet force the less damaged Japanese cruisers to abandon the field- as well as their comrades, admiral included. With the core of the Qing fleet intact, the Japanese fleet cut down by half, many transports lost, and further reinforcements to Gunsan, or perhaps even Busan, Forthcoming the Qing admiral might well count this engagement a great victory in spite of his losses.
[/I

]Unless….

"Japan expects every man to do his duty…" he mutters.

"Admiral?"


"Signal the fleet and the Yoshino that Tsuboi Kōzō is now in command of the fleet. Set course hard a starboard"

"Sir? That course will…"

"Quite so. Japan expects every man to do his duty and this is ours."

Yellow sea, Qing ship Zhenyuan May 2nd 1895 1410

"What in God's name is he doing?" Muttered acting captain McGiffin.

Lin Taizeng, whom he had actually grown to respect, had been killed in the initial salvo by a freak shell fragment leadving him and command. It was a command that he felt in all humblness to have discharged admirably. His command has been in the thick of the fighting, scattering the Japanese ships before him and accounting for the destruction of the Chiyoda. He had taken damage, of course, but had inflicted far more.

Not nearly as much as he would have liked though. The Celestial sailors did not perform nearly to Yankee standards. But then, again, he himself was not up to Yankee standards. Had his Anapolis grades been better he might have won a berth aboard one of the newly launched Battleships. But they weren't and even if they had been where would he be now? The most Junior ensign amongst a multitude?

Instead he was here, commanding a battleship! And what were his chances of seeing real combat in the American navy anyway? The United States had been at peace since the end of the civil war and had faced no foreign navy worthy of the name since the war of 1812. Once this war was done, and his achievements recognized he had no doubt press coverage would ensure him of a place in the real navy, and not as a mere ensign. No sir!

But this was no time to indulge in fantasies of the future. The enemy captain, the same one whom he had run into at the beginning of this nightmarish engagement, was trying to break out of being bracketed by the two Qing Battleships by cutting across his bow.

And he was going to fail. He was slowly, but perceptibly, losing speed. No doubt the earlier damage inflicted on him had led him to take on water.
What he was going to do was present his own bow to the Zhenyuan's broadside so long as he timed it… just… right.

The broadside should have devastated the Japanese vessel had it not shifted course at the last possible instance. Which makes no sense at all since it is bringing it into a collision course with his own vessel.

It takes him a moment to realize that this is, in fact the intended aim of the Japanese captain, and a moment more for the helmsman to respond to his mispronounced command.

It is still enough, barely, to avoid a collison. For a moment his eys meet those of the enemy captain, sweeping alongside his ship. He has a moment more to ponder the serenity within them before his world ends.

Yellow sea, Japanese flagship Hashidate May 2nd 1895 1415

Itō Sukeyuki closes his eyes as his cruiser passes alongside and below the Qing Battleship, too close for the enemy heavy guns to train upon him. He thinks, for a moment, of his wife, daughter and newborn granddaughter in the ancestral home in Kagoshima, surrounded by Cherry blossoms as they pose for the family portrait.

“If only we might all fall Like cherry blossoms in the spring — So pure and radiant !” he whispers.

And then he pushes the switch.

The explosion of the cruiser's Magazines tears it apart in an instant. The fireball engulfs the starboard side of the neighboring Battleship and the pressure wave crumples it's armored sides into a wreckage of blood spattered steel. For an instant the Battleship reels like a drunken man… before it's own Magazines are pierced and Ignite.

The resulting blast scatteres creates a min-tsunami sufficient to nearly swamp the Jiyuan, closely in pursuit and severly disrupt the forming Qing line of Battle. Debris are scattered across a 20 mile radius, causing some additional damage.

It's effect on morale is more dramatic. The surviving Nanyang ships are first to turn tail and flee northwards. The captain of the Jiyuan, disregarding the orders of his frentic admiral, soon follows and the Qing fleet breaks apart and scatters, with the Japanese halfheartedly pursuing the larger clumps.

(1) Wireless telegraph has been invented in 1895 but not yet implemented. Communication is still by signal flags.
 
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Tenno heika, banzai!

So, the Japanese have had their glory, but at what cost? Both fleets are now badly mauled, but the Quing retain one battleship still. What's sure is that Japan won't be challenging the Russian Pacific fleet anytime soon.

Itō Sukeyuki died as a true Bushi, making his Emperor and ancestors proud, but one has to think also of the poor sailors, gunners and stokers he brought to a probably avoidable doom...
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
How will this newfound glory of the Navy affect future naval funding? Now that people see that joining the Army isn´t the only way to fight and die like a true samurai, there might be a greater willingness to fund warship construction...
 
What will the Russians do?
Stick on the sidelines like the Czar implied, I would guess. Basically using the sounds of gunfire, explosions, and the screams of soldiers in order to move their fence to the point that they won't need to curve around China to to get to Vladivostok.
 
RIP Captain McGiffin and nameless Chinese sailors

Other than that, the course of this war is splendid.

Does this battle count as a Japanese victory?
The combined Qing fleets are crippled, but the same applies to the Japanese warfleet.
In addition, the Japanese lost a number of much needed troop ships and thousands of soldiers.
 

yboxman

Banned
RIP Captain McGiffin and nameless Chinese sailors

Other than that, the course of this war is splendid.

Does this battle count as a Japanese victory?
The combined Qing fleets are crippled, but the same applies to the Japanese warfleet.
In addition, the Japanese lost a number of much needed troop ships and thousands of soldiers.

It's a Japanese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory

They lost a smaller proportion of their fleet even before engaging in a pursuit which will bag some additional Chinese ships.

And since they "hold the field" they get to try repair those of their ships put out of action and take some prizes (no that they are much of a prize) among the Chinese ships which can't get away.

To take an analog from my neck of the woods, Israel, in the 1973 war, didn't knock out a much greater proportion of the Syrian-Iraqi-Morrocan-Jordanian armor on the Eastern front than it had knocked out itself. But since Israel had better repair fascilities and since it held the ground on which the fighting was waged at the end of the war, it could repair most of its own and much of the Syrian armor resulting in actually having more tanks, albeit banged up, at the end of the war than at its beginning.

Japan ended up in much the same way in 1895 and 1905 OTL. Somewhat less so TTL.

Anyway, the strategic situation at the end of this battle is that Japan is likely to win any combined fleet engagement and will be even more likely to win such an engagement as it repairs its damaged ship. But what that means is that it can only bring in supplies/reinforcements to Korea, or try to interdict Chinese reinforcements, if it uses all of its fleet. Doing both at once (supply and interdiction) carries the theoretical risk of being defeated in detail.

As you mentioned Japan lost a number of troop ships. These can be replaced, but the troops can't and this will demoralize the army and increase army-navy friction. Supplies will be slower in reaching the mainland as a result.

And it isn't just about China and Japan- most of the Japanese fleet now requires several months-year in the shipyards to be operational and their overall strength dropped by two thirds short term and a third long term (until they build or buy newer ships). The navy is now definately incapable of facing the Russians or any other European power which wants to push them around- or even to serve as much of a detterant to such pushing around. They are actually weaker Vs the Russians than they were in 1891 after the Otsu incident..
 

yboxman

Banned
RIP Captain McGiffin and nameless Chinese sailors

Tenno heika, banzai!

So, the Japanese have had their glory, but at what cost? Both fleets are now badly mauled, but the Quing retain one battleship still. What's sure is that Japan won't be challenging the Russian Pacific fleet anytime soon.

Itō Sukeyuki died as a true Bushi, making his Emperor and ancestors proud, but one has to think also of the poor sailors, gunners and stokers he brought to a probably avoidable doom...


I'm getting the idea I should introduce some VP characters who aren't Generals, Admirals, Ministers and royal mucks... fair enough.
 
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