#11 1894d:War and peace
July 1894 St Petersburg
There were new faces on the council of ministers. Sergei Witte was now formal Chairman, as well as retaining his previous position as minister of Finance.
Duronvo was the greatest obstacle of course. Fortunately, his deputy, Dmitry Spiryagin, was viewed by both George and Sergei Witte as a sufficiently competent and flexible replacement and, just as importantly, as one who would be acceptable to the lower rungs of the ministry of interior.
Finding a replacement for De Giers had been more problematic. The conscientious statesman had resigned on his own, after several personal interviews made clear his personal views were incompatible with the Tsar’s own views. His protégé, Vladimir Lamsdorf was viewed as too close to his mentor. Accordingly, George made the controversial step of appointing Mikhail Nikolayevich Muravyov, who had made a favorable impression on Tsar George and the other Romanovs during his family visits in Copenhagen (1).
The ancient minister of war, Pyotr Semyonovich Vannovskiy had also been replaced with the sometimes brilliant Alexei Kuropatkin. Whatever their personal views might be the new ministers owed their positions to his personal intervention. George had made clear to all the new appointees he expected their honest input (2), but unlike the men they replaced he was fairly confident they would not seek to carry on the prior agendas of their respective ministries blindly or obstruct any change of course for the sake of it.
Together with Witte and Vladimir Karlovich he now had a solid base of support in the council of ministers. George was uneasily aware, however, that he remains a naif in many of the issues confronting the empire.
“Gentlemen, I well understand that our foreign policy for the past 15 years has been dedicated to maintaining the statues quo in the straits and the Ottoman empire. My question is- why?”
Witte, most secure in his position, is the first to answer.
“Your majesty, when your grandfather went to war against the Ottoman empire he enjoyed the initial sympathy of all of Europe and gurantees of support from Austria. He spent much blood and treasure on liberating Bulgaria. For two years our southern trade was halted, cuasing grave financial difficulties. And to what end? The powers of Europe intervened against us. Bulgaria was confined north of the Balkan mountains and eventually slipped out of our orbit. All we won was Kars, Bessarbia and the enmity of Roumania. Meanwhile, the Austrians who had not shed a single drop of blood, lay claim to two provinces much richer than our own- and gained just as much influence with Bulgaria as we did.”
“Let us not forget, as well, the social disruptions excaberated by the war.” Adds Muravyov. “Since the wars with Napoleon every single war we had been engaged in has resulted in revolutionary activity. Activity, I may add, which endangers the throne considerably more than an oriental potentate with a half modernized army”.
“Your majesty, the view of the Foreign ministry has traditionally been that until such time as Russia is better positioned to gain full control of the straits, any diminshment of Ottoman strength would only serve to strengthn the position of the Crimean coalition, and risk the freedom of our Black sea trade.” Muravyov weighs in.
“This is all good and well. But I find this argument uncompelling. Let us suppose that we find ourselves at war with Britain and that the Ottomans fulfill our hopes and not only remain neautral but keep the Straits open for trade. Would The British, From their base in Cyprus not simply place a blockade south of the straits? We could not hope to challenge such a blockade, could we not Alexsyev?”
“Well… no. I’m afraid that even with a base in the Mediterranean we could not hope to accomplish this aim. With our French alliance however…”
“An alliance which is directed against Germany. And Austria. If, god forbid, we should find ourselves at war with both those powers and Britain, I dare say a blockade of the straits would be the least of our worries- and not one we could counter. But even, assuming the most optimistic case, we are at war with Britain alone, and with France as our ally, and with Italy and Japan not weighing in against us, can we depend on the French to dominate the Eastern Meditirantian? That is, after all, where the British fleet is concentrated and with the Suez Canal open it canbe easily reinforced.”
Alexsyev looks distinctly unhappy but answers gamely.
“No your majesty. Under these circumstances we must also expect to be blockaded in the Aegean.”
“Very well. Let us consider the more likely possibility. Namely, that we are at war with Germany and Austria with France as an ally. If the straits are under the influence of England and France they are no more likely to be closed than if the Ottomans are sole arbiters of the straits. Indeed, it seems to me more likely that the Ottomans, if in sole control, shall close the straits at the first sign of reverses by our armies.
Like it or not, from the day Ivan Grozny broke the power of the Tartar khanates, the Sultans have viewed Russia as a threat- and rightly so. Have we not advanced southwards against his vassals? Have we not expelled the Circassians, subjugated the Crimeans and freed the Georgians and the people of the Balkans from his Yoke? Regardless of who heads the sublime porte he must seek to curtail the Power of Russia whenever he may and make common cause with our enemies- even as they did with the Corsican antichrist.”
Kuropatkin discreetly coughs. “Your majesty, if you are considering an intervention in Anatolia I must point out that the terrain in question is not condusive to a decisive campaign. There is a reason, after all, why past commanders have favored campaigning against Istanbul from the Balkan direction in spite of the complications involved. The Balkan route is now assuredly closed to us. The congress of Berlin, Rumania’s attitude, and the triple alliance make that abundantly clear. So I must advance through the Rugged terrain and mule tracks of Eastern Anatolia.
To be sure, I, unlike my predeccesors, possess a good rail connection to Tbilisi and need not be concerned with Circassian Mujahidin at my rear but at best I can expect to advance to Erezum by the time the snows of winter block the passes- if I initiate a campaign this August. I am not a political man, of course, but I do not think that will be enough to bring the Ottomans to terms. It may, however, be enough to bring about an intervention by the other great powers. We may have won, therefore, a reprieve for the Armenians, but we will have spent a great deal of blood and treasure for no great gain to Russia”
Witte weighs in once again. “And while good Kuropatkin is busy demolishing Ottoman hill forts and Lamsdorf is seeking to make the best of his gains in a second Berlin conference what will the Ottomans be doing? Blocking the straits to our shipping at harvest time, that’s what. And there goes half the state revenue for this year. Not to mention losses next year when farmers lack the capital to sow as much land, or confidence in having a market to sell their harvest to.”
George leans back, stymied. Still, these are the ministers he selected. If he can’t trust their opinion, whose can he trust?
“Very well gentlemen. You have made your views clear and they have my confidence. Let us, however, explore options lying between invading Anatolia singlehandedly and doing nothing. Can we agree that the Ottomans are in clear violation of provision 61 of the treaty of Berlin (3)?”
Muravyov nods “Without a doubt. But what of it? This requires not our recognition but that of the other great powers.”
“We are allied with France, are we not? And the British, at least, seem genuinely outraged with Ottoman atrocities.” Says George, tapping a copy of the London times (4)
Muravyov ruefully shakes his head. “Their press was outraged at the Bulgarian horrors as well. Gladstone was leader of the opposition then. What did he say? That “It was time the Turks be driven out of Europe, "bag and baggage."”. That indeed seemed to be the general sentiment. Then your grandfather sent his armies south end the horrors (5). Then it was
We don't want to fight but by Jingo if we do,
We've got the ships, we've got the men, we've got the money too,
We've fought the Bear before, and while we're Britons true,
The Russians shall not have Constantinople.
The British public sentiment is fickle and can not be relied on. In any long campaign, it will turn in the direction of the British raison d'État”
“But in a short campaign might they not be deflected into measures contrary to their national interest? Britain intervened in cooperation with France in Lebanon in 1840 and then again in 1860, did it not?”
Kuropatkin coughs. “But how will such an intervention be in our best interest?”
George spreads his hands. “Suppose we introduce into the Six Vilayets, and perhaps Trebizond and Cilicia as well an autonomous administration with an Armenian or Greek governor and gendarmerie? Let us even suppose it is trained by Swiss or Belgian officers rather than our own. Kuropatkin, you have said you could not hope to penetrate farther than Erezum if you launch an invasion of Ottoman Armenia from your current starting lines. How far might you penetrate if the Ottomans are barred from garrisoning troops in the Six Vilayets and a friendly Armenian gendarmerie holds the roads and the passes?”
Kuropatkin scratches his beard. “Farther. Much farther. Even if most of our armies were engaged in war with Germany. I see your point- the Ottomans would think twice about closing the straits if their Northeastern frontier lay open to invasion.”
“And what is to stop the Ottomans from closing the straits if threatened with the imposition of such a regime?” Asks Witte incredulously (6)
“We would need to reach an agreement with Britain, and France as well, to forestall such a possibility. We may not have the ability, or diplomatic freedom of action, to seize Tsargard on our own, but a joint task force from both south and North would not be something The Sublime porte is likely to risk.”
Muravyov shakes his head. “What is to stop the British and the French from remaining once this crisis is done?”
George shrugs. “What if they do? They do not need to hold the straits to block our commerce in case of war. And our forces, and the French, will be there as well and more easily reinforced than theirs. Perhaps we might even invite the other great powers. The more powers has their fingers in the pot, the less able any single one of them will be able to close them against our will- or tolerate the entrance of foreign warships into them.”
“You realize this means giving up on the age old dream of seizing the straits, Tsargard and Hagia Sophia for Russia?”
“That dream is a fantasy. If we sought to achieve that aim we would merely set ourselves against Austria, Germany and Britain combined. Nor would Italy, Greece, Bulgaria or even France view such an aim with favor. Is this not so?”.
Muravyov nods. It is a well known truth- but not one that any Tsar or minister is comfortable admitting. Still… “your majesty, are we not putting the cart before the horses? Is there any reason to believe, beyond, a few headlines in “The London Times”, that the Gladstone ministry will cooperate with your designs?”
Tsar George smiles. After a moment Muravyov sighs. “I suppose I had best contact the British ambassador.”
“Quite. And perhaps the French and Italian ambassadors as well. We might offer the Italians our support for their designs on Tripoli in return for their cooperation. It might be beneficial to unofficialy sound out the Balkan states as well. Just in case the Ottomans do not see reason.”
(1) George has a perhaps unfortunate tendency to prefer appointing younger ministers in their 40s-50s whom he is personally familiar with. On the one hand, this means greater resentment in the seniority based bueacracy and often less experienced and connected ministers. On the other hand, it also means ministers who are not mentally stuck in the Napoleonic wars and who are somewhat more familiar with modern technology and political trends. It also means his ministers are likely to have longer terms of service since they are not constantly falling over with senility and heart attacks.
(2) At this time he even mostly means it.
(3) “The Sublime Porte undertakes to carry out, without further delay, the improvements and reforms demanded by local requirements in the provinces inhabited by Armenians, and to guarantee their security against the Circassians and Kurds. It will periodically make known the steps taken to this effect to the powers, who will superintend their application”
(4) During his exile in Georgia, George regularly was an avid reader of international press, German, French and British. Nicholas II… was not.
(5) Which largely started due to the resettlement of Circassians he ethnically cleansed in Bulgaria. But no need to quibble, right?
(6) You can see what he is focused on.
