2001: A Space Time Odyssey (Version 2)

[Medicus]

I don't see the Jupiter mission happening at all ITTL, because the Jupiter mission was hastily cobbled together after the discover of TMA-1. Discovery was initially built as a mission to the moons of Mars (according to some design documents); in the novelisation of 2001 Discovery as launched didn't have enough fuel to return from Jupiter/Saturn, the crew would have to wait a year for another ship to arrive to top up their tanks. Without the Monolith, where's the motivation? The high cost and the radiation environment around Jupiter would, to me, preclude exploration only thirty years after the first manned Moon landing. More appealing (and cheaper) locations closer to home to explore.

That doesn't exclude robotic exploration, of course.

I also don't expect any AI like HAL to be developed: in 1968 anything seemed possible, but today we are still miles away from anything approaching artificial intelligence. An expanded space program doesn't seem likely to develop the technology needed.

Some other ideas to think about from 2001: over thirty nations have nuclear weapons (you could apparently buy one for $20 million from China IIRC), at least 4 nations with space-based nuclear weapons (#4 is Germany), artificially-grown vat food (developed by the Chinese), holograms and robots used in aged care (short bit with Bowman's mother).

 

[nixonshead]

I don't see the Jupiter mission happening at all ITTL, because the Jupiter mission was hastily cobbled together after the discover of TMA-1. Discovery was initially built as a mission to the moons of Mars (according to some design documents); in the novelisation of 2001 Discovery as launched didn't have enough fuel to return from Jupiter/Saturn, the crew would have to wait a year for another ship to arrive to top up their tanks. Without the Monolith, where's the motivation? The high cost and the radiation environment around Jupiter would, to me, preclude exploration only thirty years after the first manned Moon landing. More appealing (and cheaper) locations closer to home to explore.

Hmm, as I remember the book, Discovery was intended for a Jupiter round trip, but was diverted to Saturn after the monolith sent a signal to Mimas. Discovery didn't have enough propellant for a Saturn round trip, but it did for Jupiter.

In the movies and in the novel of 2010, Discovery explicitly had propellant for a round trip, as in 2010 there was enough left for a minimum-energy return to Earth even after a decade of ammonia boil-off. 2010 the movie also has Chandra explicitly stating Discovery's Jupiter mission was in the advanced planning stages before the Tycho monolith was discovered. So in both novel and movies, a manned mission to Jupiter was being planned in any case.

All of which may have a lot or no relevance to how this TL works out - I can't wait to see

 

[Athelstane]

The high cost and the radiation environment around Jupiter would, to me, preclude exploration only thirty years after the first manned Moon landing. More appealing (and cheaper) locations closer to home to explore.

The intense radiation from Jupiter's magnetic field was not known in the 1960's (though some suspected its existence)...it was only confirmed in 1973 with the flyby of Pioneer 10 (which was nearly fried in the process).

Barring some miraculous advance in materials sciences by the end of the 20th century, it's really hard to see how a ship like Discovery could have spent any significant time in the environs of Io (3,600 rem per day) without killing the crew and fatally damaging Discovery's electronics. Doing an EVA outside (such as those staged in the 2010 film) would be an especially lethal exercise.

Saturn, of course, is a different story. One more reason why Clarke's novel version would have made more sense.

 

[Michel Van]

ahh so many thing to discuss
But all are SPOILERS

we have confirmation that SPOILERS and it's Position in the sky..

don't forget there is Ronald Reagan

For 1990s is the rise of the SPOILERS especial for SPOILERS and manned Spacecraft

and After Mars, the USA and USSR and SPOILERS focus on SPOILERS !

For moment i wait on SpaceGeek feedback to continue.

 

[Michel Van]

Post 22: 1968 the Year of Revolutions

A new post this time we jump back to end of 1968

1968 the Year of Revolutions

West Germany
Students were protesting against Vietnam war, the way the Republic was govern and the warcrimes of there fathers during WW2.
in April 1968, the spokesperson of the German student movement, Rudi Dutschke was killed, by Far right extremist Josef Bachmann.
The protest became a major civil uprise that government declare national emergency !
the Murder of Dutschke radicalized the student movement and rise of Terrorism, to make matter worst after dead of Mao Zedong, most maoist went over to radical Vietnamese Ho Chi Ming Movement and politic of guerrilla warfare.
urban guerrilla forces like The Rote Armee Fraktion (RAF) or the Revolutionäre Zellen (RZ) and Rote Sonne (RS) began there activity in 1969, there first target were old Nazi and Neo Nazi in Germany.
this was begin of german 1970s Terror War
from RAF first Manifest:

"before we can start to change society, we declare war to real menace of German people: the Nazi. once they are eradicated from face of earth, Then we start the real fight to change the society"

East Germany
While member of Politburo ask if not better to get rid of General Secretary Walter Ulbricht
Makes He a surprise in during public speech: he criticized the East german communist party !
and demanded more economic reforms under Neues Ökonomisches System, even if this means to deal with West Germany industry!
with change in Moscow in last 4 years, Ulbricht could moved toward a more independence from Moscow.
One member of Politburo Erich Honecker initiated a political power struggle against Walter Ulbricht and ask Soviet Union for help, unlucky his hardliner message reach reformist Alexei Kosygin.
So ended the "Honecker plot" on desk of Eric Mielke Minister of state security in East Germany.
While Mielke was busy to clean up East german communist party from "Traitors", Ulbricht manage to push his economic reforms and starts talks with new West german chancellor Willie Brandt, a socialist.


The Prague Spring
In spring of 1968 Czechoslovakian first sectary Alexander Dubcek start a political and economic liberalization.
Alexander Dubcek in april:

"Socialism cannot mean only liberation of the working people from the domination of exploiting class relations, but must make more provisions for a fuller life of the personality than any bourgeois democracy."

They limit the power of secret police, and federalized Czechoslovakia into two equal nation, over the next 10 years a transition would make democratic election possible and new form of democratic socialism would rise.

USSR
In Soviet union, Khrushchev was hospitalizes with heart aliments in Moscow, unfit to serve in office, the Politburo elected Alexei Kosygin as new General secretary of Communist party.
The soviet hardliner getting nervous about the „counterrevolution“ in Czechoslovakia
KGB chef Andropov had falsified a KGB report, to give a reason for a invasion of Czechoslovakia by soviet troops in the hope, that Khrushchev would crush this "uprise" like Hungarian revolution back in 1956.
But to horror Andropov, the Report not reach it's destination and Kosygin made right conclusion: That leaders in Prague are reformist against system installed by Joseph Stalin.
Feature also with a hidden agenda, Kosygin wanted it also as experiment in Socialism, to see if it really worked what Dubcek and reformist had in mind and be used it also for Soviet Union.
On Fifth Congress of the Polish United Worker Party on November 13, 1968, stated Kosygin:

"When forces that are reformist to Socialism try to turn the development of some Stalinist country towards socialism, it become not only a problem of the country concerned, but a common problem and concern of all socialist countries, to help Them“

and so "Kosygin Doctrine" let USA and West & East Europe perplex...


Vietnam War
After the death of leader Ho Chi Ming in begin of 1968, started a power-struggle between the Pro Soviet Nationalist and Pro China Fraction in North Vietnam Communist party.
The Situation was on edge of Civil war, because in fear that Pro China Fraction would called the Chines Army to help them, the North Vietnamese Army generals loyal to the Pro Nationalist start to secure the Border to China.
were other side were massive Troop concentration in case the USA would invade North Vietnam.
With far raching consequences: without North Vietnamese Army support, the south vietnamese Vietcong was weakened, they lost majority of there forces during Tet Offensive in 1968.

Soviet Union and China were in dilemma, China wanted expand there Influence in Indochina without aggravate the Soviet Union by marching into North Vietnam.
on other side the Soviet were to engaged with situation in East Europe, that they hope that consolidation with China, would later stabilizes also the Situation in North Vietnam.

and As Nixon became president, All Vietnamese fractions were demanding armistice agreement !
He start political Poker game and manage a ceasefire in 1969, follow by US Troop withdrawal out south Vietnam, while enforce the South Vietnamese Army with US equipment.
For next 3 years a fragile Peace situation establish in both Vietnam’s as USA stop bombing, while North Vietnamese not intervene south, only the Vietcong commit sporadic attacks.
in 1972, Nixon change the game again as he visit China to meet Marshall Lin Biao to defuse the „Chinese Nightmare“ situation between the two Nations,
The Chinese Forces redraw from position at North Vietnam border. what let to Pro Nationalist forces to deal with Pro China Fraction in North Vietnam Communist party.
In 1973 the North Vietnamese power struggle was finally won by the Pro Nationalist, 60 day later after the Peace Agreement was sign in Paris. the last US forces left South Vietnam
Henry Kissinger estimation how long South Vietnam would survive, he answer:

Around two, tree years, not more…

The biggest loser of this conflict were the Maoist Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, were one side consider as Pro China, by other as Anti Chinese or Pro Maoist and as Communist danger by others.
After they lose there Allied China and North Vietnam there were attack by those Pro Nationalist forces, then by Pro China Fraction, the South Vietnamese Army, Laos Military and United States Forces
As there leader „Brother number 1“ is killed during attacks in 1972, the remaining Khmer Rouge flee to Thailand, were the Organisation was not more as group of Bandits hunted down over years by Thailand military.

 

[arkades]

On weapons in space, in the movie the satellite we see just after the pre-human throw a bone was supposed to be a nuclear weapons platform.

The idea was to show humanity evolution from the first weapon to the ultimate one in just one scene change.

It was changed to something more peaceful, but we can assume there is a lot weapons in space in 2001.

 

[Michel Van]

On weapons in space, in the movie the satellite we see just after the pre-human throw a bone was supposed to be a nuclear weapons platform.

The idea was to show humanity evolution from the first weapon to the ultimate one in just one scene change.

It was changed to something more peaceful, but we can assume there is a lot weapons in space in 2001.

That's true

on 2001 Concept art and photo of Models they are labeled "Orbital Bomb"

the Bone Satellite is a USAF orbital Platform with nukes,
the other British, Chinese, German and Soviet are Label on Photos as Bombs

Why are those satellite not mention as Orbital nuclear Weapon ?
one reason was that Kubrick made bevor "2001: a Space Odyssey" ,
"Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb", the darkest political satire black comedy film ever made about Atomic War.
so Kubrick not wanted repeat that theme.
Also was Treaty sign in 1963 forbidding installation of Nuclear weapon and there Testing in Space or on Moon.

here in ASTO deal VSALT that issue and that stand for Voluntary Strategic Arms Limitation Talks.
and we got a "President the Liberator" later in this TL...

 

[Athelstane]

Hello Michel,

You're really thinking of two separate treaties - the Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963) just banned testing in space, whereas the Outer Space Treaty (1967) banned even their deployment or use in space. Of course, Kubrick's script and Clarke's book were already written by the time the latter came into force.

And not many really expected that they'd be scrupulously observed if the Cold War heated up.

 

[Michel Van]

Hello Michel,

You're really thinking of two separate treaties - the Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963) just banned testing in space, whereas the Outer Space Treaty (1967) banned even their deployment or use in space. Of course, Kubrick's script and Clarke's book were already written by the time the latter came into force.

And not many really expected that they'd be scrupulously observed if the Cold War heated up.

Many thanks for the info, Athelstane.
That was the Treaty i looking for.
there so many Arms Control and Disarmament Treaties, i lost the overview...

 

[Athelstane]

Hard to imagine a more relevant article for this timeline than this one that dropped this week at The Space Review:

When 2001: A Space Odyssey premiered in 1968, it was the most ambitions science fiction movie ever made, and one of the most expensive movies of all time. It is often cited as one of the most “realistic” depictions of space travel on film. Kubrick’s now-classic depiction of space exploration at the beginning of the 21st century was nothing if not ambitious—in fact, ridiculously so. Even the most optimistic aerospace engineer in the 1960s never envisioned structures in space, thirty years down the road, on the scales that Kubrick conjured....

The fact is, Kubrick knew he was creating space vehicles that would never exist, certainly not by 2001. It was a deliberate choice. In his book, 2001: The Heritage and Legacy of the Space Odyssey, space systems engineer Frederick Ordway III, who was one of the film’s main technical advisors, noted that Kubrick was frequently disappointed by the designs Ordway and his friends in the space industry offered up. He wanted his film to be, artistically, as grandiose as its subject matter. Kubrick was frustrated because he was looking for space machines that would not just be technically plausible, but would also express the incredibleness of human space travel. He struggled mightily to find images that were equal to the awe and wonder of the historical transition human society found itself in. Kubrick’s spaceships weren’t much more likely to be built by the end of the century than the Jupiter II, but they were magnificent and inspiring. They represented the dreams of the space age, if not any future reality, but were nevertheless cinematically convincing from the perspective of a society on the cusp of sending human beings to another world for the first time.

We could have done far more than we actually did in the three decades after 2001 was released. Indeed, we could have done far more on just the actual NASA budgets we had (as Eyes Turned Skywards reminds us) - especially if there had been an aggressive opening to commercial space much earlier on.

No we wouldn't have Clavius base or Space Station V. But we could have had something more.

 

[Medicus]

East Germany
While member of Politburo ask if not better to get rid of General Secretary Walter Ulbricht
Makes He a surprise in during public speech: he criticized the East german communist party !
and demanded more economic reforms under Neues Ökonomisches System, even if this means to deal with West Germany industry!
with change in Moscow in last 4 years, Ulbricht could moved toward a more independence from Moscow.
One member of Politburo Erich Honecker initiated a political power struggle against Walter Ulbricht and ask Soviet Union for help, unlucky his hardliner message reach reformist Alexei Kosygin.
So ended the "Honecker plot" on desk of Eric Mielke Minister of state security in East Germany.
While Mielke was busy to clean up East german communist party from "Traitors", Ulbricht manage to push his economic reforms and starts talks with new West german chancellor Willie Brandt, a socialist.

I have to question this. I know a little about Easter German history and what you're describing doesn't really sound possible.

Ulbricht was a Moscow man through and through, who largely did whatever the USSR wanted him to do. In his later years he did break with the Soviets, but this was over detente: Ulbricht wanted nothing to do with it. He never would have started talks with Brandt, he still had hopes Germany could be unified under the SED. Why has he changed his mind ITTL?

Additionally, what you have Honecker doing doesn't make sense. He was the man who approved of detente and normalising relations with the FRG and the rest of the world! Why is he a "hardliner" here?

 

[SpaceGeek]

Hard to imagine a more relevant article for this timeline than this one that dropped this week at The Space Review:



We could have done far more than we actually did in the three decades after 2001 was released. Indeed, we could have done far more on just the actual NASA budgets we had (as Eyes Turned Skywards reminds us) - especially if there had been an aggressive opening to commercial space much earlier on.

No we wouldn't have Clavius base or Space Station V. But we could have had something more.

Here are the specifications for Space Station V

Overall Diameter: 189 m.
Overall Draft: 73 m.
Hub Diameter: 40 m.
Overall Mass: 68,000 tonnes
Human Capacity: 150
Rotation Rate: 1.3 per minute
Gravity at Outer Ring: 0.18 of Earth
Hangar Capacity: Three Spaceplanes (One Orion III, Two Titov V or similar) One Moon Shuttle (Aries series) 14 Grumman DC-5 EVA Pods
Start Date: 04/11/94
Estimated Completion Date: 05/2003

While there won't be anything on the order of 68,000 tonnes in space in this timeline, we might just be able to fulfill some of the other specs... I've said too much.

 

[Michel Van]

I have to question this. I know a little about Easter German history and what you're describing doesn't really sound possible.

Ulbricht was a Moscow man through and through, who largely did whatever the USSR wanted him to do. In his later years he did break with the Soviets, but this was over detente: Ulbricht wanted nothing to do with it. He never would have started talks with Brandt, he still had hopes Germany could be unified under the SED. Why has he changed his mind ITTL?

Additionally, what you have Honecker doing doesn't make sense. He was the man who approved of detente and normalising relations with the FRG and the rest of the world! Why is he a "hardliner" here?

I saw suffice German TV documentation about East German Communism

General Secretary Walter Ulbricht really criticized the East german communist party, in camera, not public

The Problem was that East German Communism economy policy focus on Ideology instead of Real needs
Ulbricht Neues Ökonomisches System (new economy System) worked well,
Company like IKEA invest for production of there product in East Germany, even export of Wartburg Cars to nation like Belgium work well.
And this was condemned by Party ideologist running the economy planning, the Moment Honecker ouster Ulbricht with blessing of Leonid Brezhnev.
Neues Ökonomisches System was put down and straight communist Plan economy replaced it.

As VEB Automobilwerk Eisenach demand funding for R&D on four-stroke engine for Export, it was Refused on reasoning that two-stroke engine are Communist doctrine and four-stroke engine are Bourgeoisie absurdity.

under Honecker it went strait down East Germany, similar under Soviet Stagnation under Leonid Brezhnev.
as the Export breakdown do Ideology nonsense even IKEA had enough of those Games, East Germany missing foreign currencies for Import!
instead to change things, the East german communist party start insane scheme and i not making them up they are Real

-the secret service STASI special division for burglary, of church, Museum and Private Home to gain Artworks and sell it on International Black Art Market
-Storage of West German High toxically industrial Waste in East Germany, unsecured open dumps
-departure premium aks ransom, the West germans Government pay East Germany for Family who want to be Reunite with there Family in West Germany.

normalizing relations with the FRG, was to gain huge Credit from West German, even they were asking "how to hell the GDR want to pay that back ???"
in 1980s Honecker was old geezer detach from Realty, he hated Gorbachev reforms, even ask soviet officials on diplomatic meetings "wen you gonna ouster him?"
as Gorbachev ended trow Soviet money into Back hole that East Germany became, it was over, October 1989 the GDR implode
the only one how not under stand this was Erich Honecker during last Politburo meeting, he try to do business as usual, while the other member try to save what was left...

in ASTO thing are quite different
Leonid Brezhnev died in 1961, so there will be no Soviet Stagnation like OTL
Honecker like in OTL will frist ask in Moscow for permission for Remove Ulbricht,
what is denied by Reformist, Walter Ulbricht informed about this "Hardliner" and Eric Mielke Minister of STASI goes after the "Traitors"

Ulbrich will change his mind after this state visit by Willi Brandt in GRD 1970

 

[Michel Van]

we need your help
SpaceGeek and I run into lacking of Data

We need high rank member of 1960s NASA Administration, Who political conviction is Republican.

any suggestion ?

 

[Puget Sound]

we need your help
SpaceGeek and I run into lacking of Data

We need high rank member of 1960s NASA Administration, Who political conviction is Republican.

any suggestion ?

George Mueller and Bob Seamans were Republicans, I believe...

 

[Michel Van]

Thanks for Info, Puget Sound

 

[SpaceGeek]

This doesn't actually have anything to do with the current timeline (Project Orion will not make a debut in this TL) but if you actually wanted spaceflight on the scale seen in 2001: A Space Odyssey, Nuclear Pulse Propulsion would probabley be the only way of achieving it by the 1999-2001 or 2001-2003 time period. An Orion launch vehicle can send thousands of tonnes into LEO while is the scale necessary to see the massive Space Stations and Lunar Bases seen in the film. Further Nuclear Pulse Propulsion is highly efficient (isp of tens of thousands) allowing missions to the Outer Solar System in just a few years with a large payload (launched from the ground with no assembly in space!). I'l leave you with the following eye candy.

The idea of an Orion propelled Discovery was the original plan for the film and it fit perfectly into the idea of having nuclear-armed battle stations in LEO. Even if the idea is somewhat dangerous, it's the perfect mix of near-term technology, high thrust, high fuel efficiency & scalability. At it's logical extreme, an Orion propelled starship could reach Proxima Centauri in 43 years or Barnard's Star in 58 years.

 

[Astronomo2010]

very good info , the Discovery is an Amazing Spaceship , if it will built , it will be amazing so see a Fleet of this Type of Spaceships to explore our Solar System Fully , Building Massive Space Stations , And maybe go explore nearby Solar systems Life Alpha Centauri , Beta Centauri ,Proxima Centauri , of course the Astronauts and Scientists will have to go in animated suspension , due to the distance .

 

[omnimercurial]

Discovery is indeed a Beautiful Ship.... Still.... It's the Leonov that captured my heart!

 

[Medicus]

Some other nice designs inspired by 2001: Discovery II and a more-accurate Leonov.