This reminds me in Thousand-Week Reich of @AP246, the ROC also initiates a Vietnam War and gets bogged down there.
沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story
- Thread starter CELTICEMPIRE
- Start date
The Sino-Vietnamese Split
Within the space of a decade, Sino-Vietnamese relations underwent a seismic shift. The strong alliance that existed between the two countries in 1990 was in tatters in 2000. As the 90s began, China was ruled by Wang Sheng of the Kuomintang and Vietnam was ruled by Nguyễn Văn Thiệu of the Vietnam People’s Party, a merger of the VNQDD and the DVQDD, two parties inspired by China’s KMT. Nguyễn’s grip on power seemed secure, and while Wang’s position was more precarious, few suspected that he’d be replaced by anyone outside the KMT, even after the 1989 protests. China had helped Vietnam win its war against Communist insurgents, and both governments were fiercely anti-Communist. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that the alliance would last into the 21st century.
But Li Ao won the 1990 Chinese Presidential Election, ending over 60 years of KMT rule. Li ended foreign aid to Vietnam, as he viewed the Vietnamese regime as an extension of the KMT. Then, inspired by what happened in China, the people of Vietnam took to the streets and forced concessions from the government. In 1993 Tôn Thất Đính, an independent, was elected President of Vietnam. Thus, Sino-Vietnamese relations warmed again. But the KMT returned to power in China in 1996 with the election of Lien Chan. In 1997 Lien met with Vietnam People’s Party leaders in the months leading up to the presidential election. Despite Chinese-owned media heavily promoting the VPP, it performed miserably in the elections, and would only ever return to power as part of a coalition government. China moved to strengthen relations with Laos.
(Tôn Thất Đính)
For decades, Vietnam had been allowed some use of China’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. This was a Chinese policy starting in the 1960s to make China and the VNQDD regime in Vietnam more popular with the Vietnamese people. Vietnamese fishers were allowed in some places in the EEZ at some times of the year. Many fishermen disobeyed these regulations and got away with it. Meanwhile, the demand for fish soared due to Vietnam’s rapidly growing population. More and more fishermen traveled into the EEZ. In the late 90s, China began to increase its naval presence to patrol the South China Sea in order to catch illegal fishermen. Dozens were detained and then sent back to Vietnam. In 2000, Vietnamese access to China’s EEZ was completely revoked. The Organization for East Asian Cooperation mostly backed China.
As Vietnam claimed part of China’s claims in the South China Sea as their own, this led to increased tensions between both sides. Anti-China protests became common in Vietnamese cities. In 2000, a Chinese businessman, Mr. Lin, was arrested for injuring a Vietnamese man. Mr. Lin claimed he was acting in self-defense, but was found guilty and sentenced to five years in prison. Meanwhile his defense lawyer received death threats. In China, the prevailing view was that Lin was innocent and that the trial was a political stunt. 2000 and 2001 would see a wave of attacks against Vietnamese living in China and Chinese living in Vietnam. Vietnam sought out friendly relations with countries like America and Japan. The people of Vietnam and China did not particularly like each other, and in many ways the Sino-Vietnamese Split was the governments of both countries catching up with public opinion.
But Li Ao won the 1990 Chinese Presidential Election, ending over 60 years of KMT rule. Li ended foreign aid to Vietnam, as he viewed the Vietnamese regime as an extension of the KMT. Then, inspired by what happened in China, the people of Vietnam took to the streets and forced concessions from the government. In 1993 Tôn Thất Đính, an independent, was elected President of Vietnam. Thus, Sino-Vietnamese relations warmed again. But the KMT returned to power in China in 1996 with the election of Lien Chan. In 1997 Lien met with Vietnam People’s Party leaders in the months leading up to the presidential election. Despite Chinese-owned media heavily promoting the VPP, it performed miserably in the elections, and would only ever return to power as part of a coalition government. China moved to strengthen relations with Laos.
(Tôn Thất Đính)
For decades, Vietnam had been allowed some use of China’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. This was a Chinese policy starting in the 1960s to make China and the VNQDD regime in Vietnam more popular with the Vietnamese people. Vietnamese fishers were allowed in some places in the EEZ at some times of the year. Many fishermen disobeyed these regulations and got away with it. Meanwhile, the demand for fish soared due to Vietnam’s rapidly growing population. More and more fishermen traveled into the EEZ. In the late 90s, China began to increase its naval presence to patrol the South China Sea in order to catch illegal fishermen. Dozens were detained and then sent back to Vietnam. In 2000, Vietnamese access to China’s EEZ was completely revoked. The Organization for East Asian Cooperation mostly backed China.
As Vietnam claimed part of China’s claims in the South China Sea as their own, this led to increased tensions between both sides. Anti-China protests became common in Vietnamese cities. In 2000, a Chinese businessman, Mr. Lin, was arrested for injuring a Vietnamese man. Mr. Lin claimed he was acting in self-defense, but was found guilty and sentenced to five years in prison. Meanwhile his defense lawyer received death threats. In China, the prevailing view was that Lin was innocent and that the trial was a political stunt. 2000 and 2001 would see a wave of attacks against Vietnamese living in China and Chinese living in Vietnam. Vietnam sought out friendly relations with countries like America and Japan. The people of Vietnam and China did not particularly like each other, and in many ways the Sino-Vietnamese Split was the governments of both countries catching up with public opinion.
Considering the influence of OEAC, I wonder what is the current membership of the organization, and whether ASEAN ITTL exist or its functions basically being subsumed into the OEAC.Within the space of a decade, Sino-Vietnamese relations underwent a seismic shift. The strong alliance that existed between the two countries in 1990 was in tatters in 2000. As the 90s began, China was ruled by Wang Sheng of the Kuomintang and Vietnam was ruled by Nguyễn Văn Thiệu of the Vietnam People’s Party, a merger of the VNQDD and the DVQDD, two parties inspired by China’s KMT. Nguyễn’s grip on power seemed secure, and while Wang’s position was more precarious, few suspected that he’d be replaced by anyone outside the KMT, even after the 1989 protests. China had helped Vietnam win its war against Communist insurgents, and both governments were fiercely anti-Communist. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that the alliance would last into the 21st century.
But Li Ao won the 1990 Chinese Presidential Election, ending over 60 years of KMT rule. Li ended foreign aid to Vietnam, as he viewed the Vietnamese regime as an extension of the KMT. Then, inspired by what happened in China, the people of Vietnam took to the streets and forced concessions from the government. In 1993 Tôn Thất Đính, an independent, was elected President of Vietnam. Thus, Sino-Vietnamese relations warmed again. But the KMT returned to power in China in 1996 with the election of Lien Chan. In 1997 Lien met with Vietnam People’s Party leaders in the months leading up to the presidential election. Despite Chinese-owned media heavily promoting the VPP, it performed miserably in the elections, and would only ever return to power as part of a coalition government. China moved to strengthen relations with Laos.
(Tôn Thất Đính)
For decades, Vietnam had been allowed some use of China’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. This was a Chinese policy starting in the 1960s to make China and the VNQDD regime in Vietnam more popular with the Vietnamese people. Vietnamese fishers were allowed in some places in the EEZ at some times of the year. Many fishermen disobeyed these regulations and got away with it. Meanwhile, the demand for fish soared due to Vietnam’s rapidly growing population. More and more fishermen traveled into the EEZ. In the late 90s, China began to increase its naval presence to patrol the South China Sea in order to catch illegal fishermen. Dozens were detained and then sent back to Vietnam. In 2000, Vietnamese access to China’s EEZ was completely revoked. The Organization for East Asian Cooperation mostly backed China.
It is inevitable that there would be a diplomatic conflict especially considering the contested area that is the South China Sea....
...although the likelihood of an actual war being instigated is very unlikely.
The members of OEAC is pretty much everything North of Australia, South of Russia, and East of Pakistan at this point. ASEAN doesn't exist, though Vietnam and Indonesia might try to create something like it.
Yeah it’s always forgotten but even the ROC would likely be as assertive on its neighbours as PRC is. The difference is that the ROC has more soft power. Korea and Japan are strongly in its sphere and having Taiwan from the start allows it access to the Pacific already.
The US is in a much worse position to contain a China that was formerly its greatest ally in Asia. Thankfully though there’s also a lot less of a potential flashpoint given the lack of Taiwan as an issue. Plus US relations with Japanese and Korea are a lot less exclusive due to the ROC being a closer alternative. Plus I imagine a more democratic ROC is more able and willing to negotiate over its territorial disputes with India and Japan and SEA than the PRC is, especially using the medium of the OEAC, this gives them massive advantages as they could slowly turn the OEAC into their own NATO/EU style bloc to contest Western dominance.
Without 1962 War and a possible peaceful settling of their territorial disputes it isn’t impossible that China and India ally. US strong support for Pakistan will complicate American-Indian relations. Quite frankly if India and China ally with Japan, united Korea, and other Asian countries in their sphere, the era of Western dominance is doomed to fade away as Asia rises to correct the anomaly that was the Great Divergence. The two largest and greatest civilisations in the world will reassert themselves at the top of the world pecking order.
China having a proper capitalist economic growth instead of a semi planned economy with inflated GDP will help this massively. As is the fact that without the One child policy, China’s massive demographic problem IRL hasn’t presented itself yet or is a lot less problematic.
All in all this timeline is looking like not quite China wank and stonks but Asia wank and stonks as a whole. Which is based. Go Asia, make the Asian in me proud.
The US is in a much worse position to contain a China that was formerly its greatest ally in Asia. Thankfully though there’s also a lot less of a potential flashpoint given the lack of Taiwan as an issue. Plus US relations with Japanese and Korea are a lot less exclusive due to the ROC being a closer alternative. Plus I imagine a more democratic ROC is more able and willing to negotiate over its territorial disputes with India and Japan and SEA than the PRC is, especially using the medium of the OEAC, this gives them massive advantages as they could slowly turn the OEAC into their own NATO/EU style bloc to contest Western dominance.
Without 1962 War and a possible peaceful settling of their territorial disputes it isn’t impossible that China and India ally. US strong support for Pakistan will complicate American-Indian relations. Quite frankly if India and China ally with Japan, united Korea, and other Asian countries in their sphere, the era of Western dominance is doomed to fade away as Asia rises to correct the anomaly that was the Great Divergence. The two largest and greatest civilisations in the world will reassert themselves at the top of the world pecking order.
China having a proper capitalist economic growth instead of a semi planned economy with inflated GDP will help this massively. As is the fact that without the One child policy, China’s massive demographic problem IRL hasn’t presented itself yet or is a lot less problematic.
All in all this timeline is looking like not quite China wank and stonks but Asia wank and stonks as a whole. Which is based. Go Asia, make the Asian in me proud.
Iraq and Iran
From the late 50s to the early 90s, Iraq was ruled by Abd al-Karim Qassim. Iraq was ruled as a Socialist and Soviet-aligned but not Communist state. Early in his reign, Iraq was unstable and there were multiple attempts to overthrow his government. He worked closely with the Iraqi Communist Party, but stopped short of fully embracing Communism. Iraq was beset by enemies, with the Western-aligned countries of Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, and Iran (until 1978) in the neighborhood. Iraq’s main allies in the region would be Syria and Iran after 1978. The existence of a leftist Iraq was a cause for concern for across the region, and to make things worse in 1979 Iran went full red. In 1980 Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait, with Qassim declaring the country to be a product of British Imperialism. In the early 80s, Saudi leadership and citizens worried that a godless Communists might march into Mecca soon.
(Abd al-Karim Qassim)
But that never happened. America was quick to show its support for Saudi Arabia. Iraqi leadership understood that any attack on Saudi Arabia would invite American intervention. They had gotten lucky with Kuwait, but they knew not to push their luck again. In 1984, Iraq sent volunteers to Syria and launched missiles to help Syria in its war with Israel. Israel emerged victorious. As the 80s went on, the Soviet Union went into decline and the advance of Communism was halted. Instead of spreading Communism, the USSR found itself defending against anti-Communist rebellions, the costliest being in Iran. Iraq helped the Iranian government of Noureddin Kianouri against the Islamist rebels, though not to the same extent as the Soviet Union. Unlike Iran, Iraq was a stable country with a growing economy during the 1980s. Iraq would start to decline after Qassim’s death in 1992, however.
Throughout the 80s and early 90s all the major population centers were firmly under the Iranian government’s control. But the rural areas were often controlled by rebels. Soviet and pro-government Iranian troops were often ambushed while traveling between cities. When Gennady Yanayev assumed control of the Soviet Union, he ordered new offensives in Iran. Large swathes of land in South and Central Iran were back under government control, but at the price of high Soviet casualties. Iranian civilian casualties were also high, ensuring that the Soviet Union and its allies in Tehran were hated by Iran’s conservative Shia population even more than before. By 1993, it became clear that when the Soviets would leave a town in Iran’s interior, rebels would soon be back. In 1994, Soviet soldiers were pulled back from Central and Southwestern Iran and ordered to defend Iran’s Northern and Eastern provinces. The Soviet Union tried to broker a ceasefire between the two sides and failed. With the Soviet economy collapsing, all Soviet troops would be sent back home by the Spring of 1995.
Within weeks after the last Soviet soldiers left Iran, the rebels captured Bandar-E-Abbas. This gave them access to a port, making it easier for supplies to reach them. Within a year of the Soviet withdraw, Islamist rebels were in control of half the country. In 1997, the Iranian government finally came around to the idea of negotiating with the rebels. At the same time, Tehran was trying to move away from hardline Communism. These actions were denounced as revisionist by a faction within the ruling Tudeh Party, and there was an attempted coup. Meanwhile, the Summer on 1997 saw rapid rebel advances in Southeastern Iran, and border clashes with the Iraqi Army began. By 1998, Ahvaz and Mashad had fallen, and the Iranian Democratic Republic was limited to the Northeast.
Iranian government forces fought harder than anyone expected them to, delaying their inevitable defeat. Qom was captured in the Spring of 1998, but Tehran held out until April 1999. Communist forces continued fighting in Northeastern Iran for almost a year afterwards. An Islamist government led by Ali Khamenei and Akbar Rafsanjani was formed. Thousands of Communists and collaborators were arrested and hundreds executed. Islamist Iranian forces, now the official military of Iran, continued to be involved in border skirmishes with Iraq. In addition, some Shia militants went over the border to help the small but growing anti-government Shia groups operating in Iraq. The world watched with bated breath to see if these clashes would lead to all-out war between the two countries.
(Abd al-Karim Qassim)
But that never happened. America was quick to show its support for Saudi Arabia. Iraqi leadership understood that any attack on Saudi Arabia would invite American intervention. They had gotten lucky with Kuwait, but they knew not to push their luck again. In 1984, Iraq sent volunteers to Syria and launched missiles to help Syria in its war with Israel. Israel emerged victorious. As the 80s went on, the Soviet Union went into decline and the advance of Communism was halted. Instead of spreading Communism, the USSR found itself defending against anti-Communist rebellions, the costliest being in Iran. Iraq helped the Iranian government of Noureddin Kianouri against the Islamist rebels, though not to the same extent as the Soviet Union. Unlike Iran, Iraq was a stable country with a growing economy during the 1980s. Iraq would start to decline after Qassim’s death in 1992, however.
Throughout the 80s and early 90s all the major population centers were firmly under the Iranian government’s control. But the rural areas were often controlled by rebels. Soviet and pro-government Iranian troops were often ambushed while traveling between cities. When Gennady Yanayev assumed control of the Soviet Union, he ordered new offensives in Iran. Large swathes of land in South and Central Iran were back under government control, but at the price of high Soviet casualties. Iranian civilian casualties were also high, ensuring that the Soviet Union and its allies in Tehran were hated by Iran’s conservative Shia population even more than before. By 1993, it became clear that when the Soviets would leave a town in Iran’s interior, rebels would soon be back. In 1994, Soviet soldiers were pulled back from Central and Southwestern Iran and ordered to defend Iran’s Northern and Eastern provinces. The Soviet Union tried to broker a ceasefire between the two sides and failed. With the Soviet economy collapsing, all Soviet troops would be sent back home by the Spring of 1995.
Within weeks after the last Soviet soldiers left Iran, the rebels captured Bandar-E-Abbas. This gave them access to a port, making it easier for supplies to reach them. Within a year of the Soviet withdraw, Islamist rebels were in control of half the country. In 1997, the Iranian government finally came around to the idea of negotiating with the rebels. At the same time, Tehran was trying to move away from hardline Communism. These actions were denounced as revisionist by a faction within the ruling Tudeh Party, and there was an attempted coup. Meanwhile, the Summer on 1997 saw rapid rebel advances in Southeastern Iran, and border clashes with the Iraqi Army began. By 1998, Ahvaz and Mashad had fallen, and the Iranian Democratic Republic was limited to the Northeast.
Iranian government forces fought harder than anyone expected them to, delaying their inevitable defeat. Qom was captured in the Spring of 1998, but Tehran held out until April 1999. Communist forces continued fighting in Northeastern Iran for almost a year afterwards. An Islamist government led by Ali Khamenei and Akbar Rafsanjani was formed. Thousands of Communists and collaborators were arrested and hundreds executed. Islamist Iranian forces, now the official military of Iran, continued to be involved in border skirmishes with Iraq. In addition, some Shia militants went over the border to help the small but growing anti-government Shia groups operating in Iraq. The world watched with bated breath to see if these clashes would lead to all-out war between the two countries.
The clash between Communists and radical Islamists only has me with the popcorn eager to see the loons fight even more.
Thankfully Iraq has a leader that has less problematic that Saddam, and with that none of Saddam's sons shenanigans would happen ITTL. Not really surprised that they were able to invade Kuwait successfully, thanks (beside other factors such as Britain is in the process of reducing defense spending etc.)...largely to friendly relation to Iran ..speaking of which....
And Iran is not doing quite well, which has been mentioned before, but the fact that border skirmishes is happening at the Iran-Iraq border currently is a bit concerning.
..then having a much more sombre thought and realizing that ourselves (or at the very least our parents) ITTL are potentially screwed thanks to the ensuing increase in oil prices.
There’s no way any of us still exist due to butterfly effect tbch. With any luck the soaring oil prices make the West buck up and invest into alternate sources of energy like Nuclear and Renewables, or drill their own oil in North America.
Another good regional check-in. Really liking this look at how the dynamics of the Middle East have changed ITTL.
Well there's that. Thankfully if you do decide to cover it in a just little more detail, there is a website that covers the general history of the development of the internet in Asia, for a reference as a IOTL base to set the changes, (At first I want to say that researching the history of the internet in Asia is hard since there aren't any wiki pages regarding it, but then I stumble upon this website while looking around...)
Talking about technology, the reason I was looking around (other than seeing the question), was the fact there is recently another video by Asianometry, that talking about Italy's Olivetti and its development of computers in the late 50s-early 60s. With this in mind, when you do eventually decided to cover Italy, perhaps you could have a minor mention regarding this, since while from the extremely minor mention from before it looks like there is has no change politically ITTL (and thus no government support for Olivetti just like IOTL), perhaps the butterfly flapping could perhaps set the company in a different path, by preventing the death of the Chinese-Italian that had a major involvement in Olivetti at the time, Mario Tchou. This (along with An Wang that I had mentioned before) shows how much influence the Chinese diaspora had on the development of computer, and perhaps a KMT China (and its effect on its diaspora) could play a much bigger role in the development in technology.