沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story

How big is the Chinese Economy in this Timeline anyway ? In terms of Hard Numbers, has it surpassed USA, which currently has about 25 Trillion GDP or in 2000 had about 10 Trillion GDP
Well, it surpassed the West German economy in the 1980s, and surpassed Japan in 1994, and these countries IMO does not have much changes economically. Whether it has surpassed the USA though is hard to predict, since it has much more changes ITTL than both Japan and West German combined, partly due to the lack of a massive American involvement in Vietnam, while the changes of administrations has more of a impact of making the American GDP higher or lower.
Based on a projection of average yearly growth between 5-6.5% since the point it surpassed Japan in 1994 (which is around 5 trillion USD IIRC), I think the Chinese economy at this point ITTL (2000) would be at around 6.7 to 7.7 trillion USD vs the American which is around 11-12 trillion USD.
I think perhaps 2012 would be the point in which the Chinese economy would surpassed the US economy, which could be marked by perhaps with Shanghai once more hosting the Olympics.
 
No way it has surpassed the US IMHO.
@Tertius711 is correct that it hasn't surpassed the US yet, though it is catching up.
Based on a projection of average yearly growth between 5-6.5% since the point it surpassed Japan in 1994 (which is around 5 trillion USD IIRC), I think the Chinese economy at this point ITTL (2000) would be at around 6.7 to 7.7 trillion USD vs the American which is around 11-12 trillion USD.
Where did you get the numbers for China in 2000? I'm seeing much lower numbers when I looked it up.

You should do an update on space stuff.
I plan on doing that, I don't know when.
 
@Tertius711 is correct that it hasn't surpassed the US yet, though it is catching up.

Where did you get the numbers for China in 2000? I'm seeing much lower numbers when I looked it up.


I plan on doing that, I don't know when.
We have to bear in mind that OTL China's GDP growth and numbers have already been proven to be absolutely fake, with some even saying the Chinese economy IRL is as much as 60% smaller than they claim it is.

So if China ITTL only matches the official numbers of the PRC OTL but actually is at those numbers, it's already great enough economic growth.
 
@Tertius711 is correct that it hasn't surpassed the US yet, though it is catching up.

Where did you get the numbers for China in 2000? I'm seeing much lower numbers when I looked it up.


I plan on doing that, I don't know when.
Well I just calculate and presumed the Chinese GDP based on the constant small but exponential growth. Meanwhile, I am pretty sure there isn't a mention of a recession (or even a slowdown for that matter) in China ITTL since at least 1994. Meanwhile, the GDP number would. be presumed to not yet include Hong Kong and Macau which combined has a sizable amount of GDP.
Never mind that, I was once again checking back the last time GDP growth was mentioned, and the last time the growth was mentioned was around 1960s. So perhaps my calculations could be extremely flawed. That being said based on the ITTL Chinese 1994 GDP, the potential GDP of ITTL China would be....
Annual average growthITTL GDP in 2000 [5 trillion * (1.0_^6 years)] $Note
1% (1.01)5.3 trillion
2% (1.02)5.6 trillion
3% (1.03)5.9 trillion
4% (1.04)6.3 trillionThe IOTL US average growth in the 1990s was around 3.4% ,(and actually increase to an average of 4.1% during the latter half of the decade) if this study was to be believed. This would be my absolute pessimistic prediction, since anything lower would mean China is probably lagging behind the US.
5% (1.05)6.7 trillion
6% (1.06)7.1 trillionWith the exception of 1998(in which the growth was around 4.8%), the GDP growth of Taiwan would be usually just above 6% during the latter half of the decade.
7% (1.07)7.5 trillionChecking back, my most optimistic GDP prediction when including Hong Kong and Macau would be around 7.6 and I round up to 7.7 trillion since the GDP in 1994 could be just a bit more higher than Japan.
 
We have to bear in mind that OTL China's GDP growth and numbers have already been proven to be absolutely fake, with some even saying the Chinese economy IRL is as much as 60% smaller than they claim it is.

So if China ITTL only matches the official numbers of the PRC OTL but actually is at those numbers, it's already great enough economic growth.
P/s: Well I pretty sure even in 1994, the Chinese economy in the mainland ITTL alone would probably be bigger than IOTL PRC, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau combined (which adds up to around 1 trillion $), which show how much was the communist was holding back the growth of China IOTL.
 
We have to bear in mind that OTL China's GDP growth and numbers have already been proven to be absolutely fake, with some even saying the Chinese economy IRL is as much as 60% smaller than they claim it is.

So if China ITTL only matches the official numbers of the PRC OTL but actually is at those numbers, it's already great enough economic growth.
60% seems a little steep but, their numbers are indeed difficult to swallow
 
We have to bear in mind that OTL China's GDP growth and numbers have already been proven to be absolutely fake, with some even saying the Chinese economy IRL is as much as 60% smaller than they claim it is.

So if China ITTL only matches the official numbers of the PRC OTL but actually is at those numbers, it's already great enough economic growth.
This is just anecdotal evidence, but I remember there being lots of empty space in malls and that businesses were constantly popping up and then shutting down. This trend is something I noticed five years ago. The last time I was in mainland China was after Covid, and that has exacerbated it.
Well I just calculate and presumed the Chinese GDP based on the constant small but exponential growth. Meanwhile, I am pretty sure there isn't a mention of a recession (or even a slowdown for that matter) in China ITTL since at least 1994. Meanwhile, the GDP number would. be presumed to not yet include Hong Kong and Macau which combined has a sizable amount of GDP.
Never mind that, I was once again checking back the last time GDP growth was mentioned, and the last time the growth was mentioned was around 1960s. So perhaps my calculations could be extremely flawed. That being said based on the ITTL Chinese 1994 GDP, the potential GDP of ITTL China would be....
Annual average growthITTL GDP in 2000 [5 trillion * (1.0_^6 years)] $Note
1% (1.01)5.3 trillion
2% (1.02)5.6 trillion
3% (1.03)5.9 trillion
4% (1.04)6.3 trillionThe IOTL US average growth in the 1990s was around 3.4% ,(and actually increase to an average of 4.1% during the latter half of the decade) if this study was to be believed. This would be my absolute pessimistic prediction, since anything lower would mean China is probably lagging behind the US.
5% (1.05)6.7 trillion
6% (1.06)7.1 trillionWith the exception of 1998(in which the growth was around 4.8%), the GDP growth of Taiwan would be usually just above 6% during the latter half of the decade.
7% (1.07)7.5 trillionChecking back, my most optimistic GDP prediction when including Hong Kong and Macau would be around 7.6 and I round up to 7.7 trillion since the GDP in 1994 could be just a bit more higher than Japan.
That sounds more reasonable. 7 trillion is about where the gdp is.
60% seems a little steep but, their numbers are indeed difficult to swallow
I agree.
 
This is just anecdotal evidence, but I remember there being lots of empty space in malls and that businesses were constantly popping up and then shutting down. This trend is something I noticed five years ago. The last time I was in mainland China was after Covid, and that has exacerbated it.
Data does show that most new businesses fail within their first five years, and a significant minority does in their first two or three.
 
This is just anecdotal evidence, but I remember there being lots of empty space in malls and that businesses were constantly popping up and then shutting down. This trend is something I noticed five years ago. The last time I was in mainland China was after Covid, and that has exacerbated it.

That sounds more reasonable. 7 trillion is about where the gdp is.

I agree.
I could see the Chinese economy only being about 65-70% as large as its claimed size (which would still make it very big!) but 40% just strikes me as extreme
 
Questions but not about China : @CELTICEMPIRE In TTL Vietnam War is leaded by China, not America, would Counterculture, hippie still emerged ?
Well that has been lightly touched and discussed upon, although a more elaborate explanation and a deeper discussion is probably needed.
P/s: I had thought of something akin to a more longer lasting & larger beatnik movement that encompasses the TTL smaller hippie movement might be related to this when this was last , but I think @CELTICEMPIRE would probably have something much better explanation of TTL culture in the works than I will ever have. Do note that ITTL, the western world (read: celebrities) would have a different lens via China to view Eastern spirituality, one that has none of in my (perhaps flawed of a) opinion a left-wing, socialist tinge, that one could have when they are visiting OTL (and perhaps TTL as well) India to experience Eastern spirituality.
 
Questions but not about China : @CELTICEMPIRE In TTL Vietnam War is leaded by China, not America, would Counterculture, hippie still emerged ?
Well that has been lightly touched and discussed upon, although a more elaborate explanation and a deeper discussion is probably needed.
P/s: I had thought of something akin to a more longer lasting & larger beatnik movement that encompasses the TTL smaller hippie movement might be related to this when this was last , but I think @CELTICEMPIRE would probably have something much better explanation of TTL culture in the works than I will ever have. Do note that ITTL, the western world (read: celebrities) would have a different lens via China to view Eastern spirituality, one that has none of in my (perhaps flawed of a) opinion a left-wing, socialist tinge, that one could have when they are visiting OTL (and perhaps TTL as well) India to experience Eastern spirituality.
The counterculture still emerges, though it's more of a 70s and early 80s thing than a 60s thing. It's still mostly leftists or at least people who are a bit left of center who get into Eastern spirituality, as conservatism in the West has always been associated with Christianity. One big difference with regard to Eastern spirituality is the Dalai Lama, who has some reach outside of China but he's not seen as an anti-establishment figure as he eventually agrees to collaborate with the Chinese government in Tibet. TTL when John Lennon meets Chun Kaiming (the Tibetan cult leader), he's misunderstanding who Chun really is. Chun wants to become the theocratic dictator of a Tibetan Empire, but Lennon and many other Westerners are convinced he's basically a hippie.

Other than that, the counterculture is a bit less political and a bit more concerned with music, spirituality, etc.
 
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