沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story

Chapter 100 will probably be up some time tomorrow. In the meantime, who do you think will win?

Someone from the KMT for both elections. But I think it will be a plurality and this election could be the last to be determined by the National Assembly and the next presidential (and vice-presidential) election will be by popular vote.

That alone could lead to some very interesting times for the nations surrounding it.
EDIT: Are the parties in the National Assembly(other than the KMT) had any international affiliation?
 
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Someone from the KMT for both elections. But I think it will be a plurality and this election could be the last to be determined by the National Assembly and the next presidential (and vice-presidential) election will be by popular vote.

That alone could lead to some very interesting times for the nations surrounding it.
EDIT: Are the parties in the National Assembly(other than the KMT) had any international affiliation?

The China Democratic Socialist Party is part of the Socialist International.
 
一百, The Presidential Election of 1990
Most pundits were predicting that no party would win a majority in the National Assembly, but that the Kuomintang would come close. The media was largely promoting KMT candidates. Rong Yiren was able to pay to get commercials for China Youth Party candidates, but his media presence was dwarfed by the KMT’s. Rong was the most favored to win out of all non-KMT candidates because of him and his party’s money advantage over other opposition parties. The CYP also stood a good chance at getting members of the KMT to defect, as they were the most similar party ideologically. But with the KMT projected to win at over 45% of delegates, it seemed unlikely for any other party to win. Meanwhile, Independent Li Ao was drawing the largest crowds, though he was still a longshot. Divisions within the KMT were a major weakness, as voters didn’t know if a vote for the KMT was a vote for 6 more years of Wang Sheng, the continuation of the Chiang Dynasty, or someone else.

When the results came in, KMT candidates won barely under 40% of the vote in the party’s worst performance in its entire history up until that point. This was a 20% decrease from 1983. The China Democratic Socialist Party won 19%, the China Youth Party won 17%, and the Liberal Party won 12%. The New Democratic League won 9% of the vote. Independents and the Tibet Improvement Party won a combined 3% of the vote. The KMT and TIP won a combined 1,296 delegates. The coalition of the CDSP, CYP, Liberal, and affiliated independents won 1,491 delegates. Finally, the New Democratic League won 254 delegates. No one had a majority. In the months between November 1989 and April 1990, KMT candidates met in order to discuss some sort of resolution in order to unify the party. They were unsuccessful.

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CYP-CDSP-Liberal Coalition
KMT-TIP Coalition
New Democratic League

President Wang Sheng was still considered the most likely winner, though considering the crowded field this wasn’t too impressive. His actual approval rating hovered around 30%. His biggest supporters were outside China, particularly US President Paul Laxalt. The leaders of the two most powerful nation in the world had political conservatism and strident anti-Communism in common. He was unable to secure deals with the other candidates, however. Attempts to strike deals between the China Youth Party and the China Democratic Socialists Party were also falling through, with neither side willing to give up their presidential bid in exchange for the vice-presidential spot. In the months leading up to the election, there were concerns that there would be a coup, or that Wang Sheng would have some of the newly elected members of the National Assembly somehow disqualified. These concerns would prove to be unfounded.

On the first ballot, Wang Sheng came in first place, but with only 610 votes, less than half of what he needed, and even less than half of his own party. This meant that, for the first time, the Presidential election would go to a second round (the Vice-Presidential election had gone to a second round in 1948 and 1954). In second place came CDSP candidate Wu Jieping with 551, and CYP candidate Rong Yiren came in third with 510. Li Ao came in fourth with 434, Hau Pei-tsun came in fifth with 281, Yang Rudai came in sixth with 254. Neither Liang Surong nor any of the late Chiang Ching-kuo’s brother or sons cracked 200 delegates. A few delegates voted for General Cheng Wei-yuan, who had famously refused to put down the protests in Beiping.

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(Wu Jieping in his younger years)

In the second round, there were major shakeups on the KMT side. James Soong had voted for Wang Sheng in the first round, but switched his vote to Chiang Hsiao-yu in the second round and urged others to do the same. There was a mass exodus of Wang supporters, with Chiang Hsiao-yu benefitting in particular. This caused Wang Sheng to drop out. Wu Jieping was now in first place, at 566 votes. Rong Yiren was in second place, still stuck at 510 votes. The CDSP and CYP still wouldn’t come to an agreement. On the third ballot, KMT support was still divided, though Chiang Hsiao-wu was in the lead. On the fourth ballot, Chiang Hsiao-wu continued to gain support in the KMT and Liang Surong dropped out. Some KMT delegates were unhappy. They hated that qualified candidates like Liang Surong and Hau Pei-tsun were being tossed aside in order to continue the “Chiang Dynasty.”

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(Chiang Hsiao-wu)

Considering the disunity within the KMT, many expected there to the defections to the CDSP or more likely the CYP. But the disgruntled KMT delegates had another idea. Wu Jieping was a leftist, and Rong Yiren was just a wealthy businessman who had never held elected office in his life. Rong was also seen as a political opportunist lacking convictions. Working with the New Democratic League wasn’t an option. But Li Ao was different. He had some experience as a member of the Legislative Yuan since 1984. Independent delegates supporting Li told KMT delegates that Li essentially agreed with the KMT’s ideology. Li’s criticism of the party was its authoritarianism and corruption, which were criticisms many KMT members could sympathize with. It was promised that many KMT members would have jobs in the new administration. Thus, on the fifth ballot, Li Ao came in first place with 689 votes, aided by defections from the KMT and other parties. He was one vote ahead of Chiang Hsiao-wu.

Next, Li Ao told the CYP that they could support his bid for president and receive a huge portion of appointed positions in his new administration. If they refused, he would make the same offer to the CDSP. Rong Yiren dropped out and the CYP backed Li. Almost half of the CDSP backed Li as well. On the seventh ballot, most of the KMT rallied behind Chiang Hsiao-yu, putting him over 1,000. However, the New Democratic League, eager to grasp an opportunity to end KMT rule, threw their weight behind Li Ao, giving him 1,571 delegates. KMT members of the National Assembly stood in stunned silence at what had just happened. With 48 more delegates than the necessary 1,523, this put Li over the top. China’s next president would not be a member of the party of Sun Yat-sen, Chiang Kai-shek, and Chiang Ching-kuo. Li’s hometown of Harbin erupted in celebration.

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(Li Ao)

There was no shortage of KMT candidates for Vice President. Hau Pei-tsun was in the running after his failed presidential run, as was Chiang Hsiao-wen. Reformist candidates such as Minister of Justice Lee Yuan-tsu and Minister of Education Li Huan ran. The more authoritarian Minister of Economic Affairs Jiang Zemin ran. Minister of the Interior Lien Chan ran, hoping to win as a compromise candidate. President of the Judicial Yuan Lin Yang-kang ran. General Cheng Wei-yuan and Ma Bufang’s son, General Ma Jiyuan, would also run. The 80-year-old Governor of Tibet Ngapoi Ngawang Jigme became the first member of the Tibet Improvement Party to run for Vice President. The China Democratic Socialist Party ran the imprisoned Chen Chongguang. The China Youth Party ran Member of the Legislative Yuan Cheng Siwei. The Liberal Party ran General Xu Qinxian. The New Democratic League ran professor Wang Ruoshui.

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(lien Chan)

Just as with the Presidential election, the KMT was deeply divided. On the first ballot, Hau Pei-tsun, Chiang Hsiao-wen, and Lien Chan were the most popular KMT candidates in that order. On the second ballot, the China Youth Party delegates switched to support KMT candidate Lin Yang-kang. Lin’s supporters urged the KMT to unite around him, as with CYP support the KMT could win. The Liberal Party got behind Lin as well. Meanwhile, on the third ballot the minor candidates dropped out and urged their supporters to back Lien Chan, who was very suspicious about the CYP and the Liberals flocking to a candidate who did very poorly in the first round. However, it was too late. Lin Yang-kang, now backed by Hau Pei-tsun had won enough support to obtain 1,526 delegates, three more than what was necessary to win. China would have its first Vice President born in Taiwan.

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(Lin Yang-kang)

Presidential Election of 1990
First RoundSecond RoundThird RoundFourth RoundFifth RoundSixth Round
Wang Sheng (KMT-Jiangxi)610 (20.0%)253 (8.3%)
Wu Jieping (CDSP-Jiangsu)551 (18.1%)566 (18.6%)566 (18.6%)566 (18.6%)451 (14.8%)286 (9.4%)
Rong Yiren (CYP-Jiangsu)510 (16.7%)510 (16.7%)510 (16.7%)510 (16.7%)510 (16.7%)
Li Ao (I-Songjiang)434 (14.3%)437 (14.4%)437 (14.4%)437 (14.4%)689 (22.6%)1,571 (51.6%)
Hau Pei-tsun (KMT-Jiangsu)281 (9.2%)408 (13.4%)399 (13.1%)458 (15.0%)353 (11.6%)122 (4.0%)
Yang Rudai (NDL-Sichuan)254 (8.3%)239 (7.8%)239 (7.8%)239 (7.8%)207 (6.8%)
Liang Surong (KMT-Liaobei)192 (6.3%)182 (6.0%)181 (5.9%)
Chiang Wei-kuo (KMT-Zhejiang)109 (3.6%)184 (6.0%)205 (6.7%)170 (5.6%)145 (4.8%)62 (2.0%)
Chiang Hsiao-wen (KMT-Zhejiang)55 (1.8%)91 (3.0%)89 (2.9%)67 (2.2%)
Chiang Hsiao-yu (KMT-Zhejiang)46 (1.5%)175 (5.7%)417 (13.7%)596 (19.6%)688 (22.6%)1,002 (33.0%)
Cheng Wei-yuan (KMT-Anhui)3 (0.1%)

Vice Presidential Election of 1990
First RoundSecond RoundThird Round
Chen Chongguang (CDSP-Hubei)551 (18.1%)551 (18.1%)551 (18.1%)
Cheng Siwei (CYP-Hunan)510 (16.7%)
Xu Qinxian (LP-Shandong)434 (14.3%)
Hau Pei-tsun (KMT-Jiangsu)270 (8.9%)270 (8.9%)
Wang Ruoshui (NDL-Jiangsu)254 (8.3%)254 (8.3%)254 (8.3%)
Chiang Hsiao-wen (KMT-Zhejiang)223 (7.3%)224 (7.4%)202 (6.6%)
Lien Chan (KMT-Liaoning)190 (6.2%)243 (8.0%)559 (18.3%)
Jiang Zemin (KMT-Jiangsu)154 (5.1%)160 (5.3%)
Li Huan (KMT-Hubei)116 (3.8%)99 (3.3%)
Cheng Wei-yuan (KMT-Anhui)96 (3.2%)64 (2.1%)
Lee Yuan-tsu (KMT-Hunan)89 (2.9%)84 (2.8%)
Lin Yang-Kang (KMT-Taiwan)68 (2.2%)1,012 (33.2%)1,527 (50.1%)
Ma Jiyuan (KMT-Qinghai)65 (2.1%)59 (1.9%)
Ngapoi Ngawang Jigme (TIP-Tibet)25 (1.0%)25 (1.0%)
 
1996 will be another story I think.
If I get it right, KMT lost the election essentially because they went in without a natural leader to unite around. With the shock of losing the election, I imagine the next 6 years will see the KMT finding a new leader for the next election after.

Then, even though their control has eroded quite a bit over the last couple decades, I surmise they are still entrenched in most of the state, government and media apparatus, and in offices at local, regional and provincial levels. Li Ao will have a delicate time maneuvering around these leftover of past KMT hegemony.
 
1996 will be another story I think.
If I get it right, KMT lost the election essentially because they went in without a natural leader to unite around. With the shock of losing the election, I imagine the next 6 years will see the KMT finding a new leader for the next election after.

Then, even though their control has eroded quite a bit over the last couple decades, I surmise they are still entrenched in most of the state, government and media apparatus, and in offices at local, regional and provincial levels. Li Ao will have a delicate time maneuvering around these leftover of past KMT hegemony.
The KMT certainly has a lot of strength left, not to mention that they still control the Legislative Yuan. They would have won the election had they unified behind one leader, though it would have been close.
 
The KMT certainly has a lot of strength left, not to mention that they still control the Legislative Yuan. They would have won the election had they unified behind one leader, though it would have been close.
Even so, this is still a major turning point, showing that they're not the all powerful juggernaut they present themselves as.
 
One thing I forgot to mention when I talked about the North Korean military officers who are secretly pro-ROC and pro-democracy is that by default they would also be secretly pro-ROK.
Note:I edited here to remove some mistakes.
 
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Speaking of North Korea, how is it faring so far?

The Soviets are still around, but without them, will they exist for long? They don't have the nuclear bomb yet, and I mind that if or when the Soviets are no longer able to protect them, the utterly anti communist Chinese would love crushing this nuisance on their border, and I have no doubt the Americans and Japan would be on board. South Korea might be rejoiced at the thought of reunification if it means no longer being under permanent threat, or not if that means pouring tons of money into the North crumbling economy, not to mention the level of endoctrination among its people. Would they prefer a UN mandate as a transition to reunification ITTL ?
 
Speaking of North Korea, how is it faring so far?

The Soviets are still around, but without them, will they exist for long? They don't have the nuclear bomb yet, and I mind that if or when the Soviets are no longer able to protect them, the utterly anti communist Chinese would love crushing this nuisance on their border, and I have no doubt the Americans and Japan would be on board. South Korea might be rejoiced at the thought of reunification if it means no longer being under permanent threat, or not if that means pouring tons of money into the North crumbling economy, not to mention the level of endoctrination among its people. Would they prefer a UN mandate as a transition to reunification ITTL ?
A UN mandate as a transitional measure sounds like a good option and China might agree with this.

But who is going to say that anti-American sentiment isn't going to be replaced with anti-Soviet sentiment that will be replaced with anti-Russian sentiment as soon as the Soviets collapse.

Which will be followed by Russia then declaring itself the successor state of the Soviet Union.

and the North Koreans getting the news about the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's declaration of being the successor state of the Soviet Union.

Note:I heavily edited some things here.
 
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Speaking of North Korea, how is it faring so far?

The Soviets are still around, but without them, will they exist for long? They don't have the nuclear bomb yet, and I mind that if or when the Soviets are no longer able to protect them, the utterly anti communist Chinese would love crushing this nuisance on their border, and I have no doubt the Americans and Japan would be on board. South Korea might be rejoiced at the thought of reunification if it means no longer being under permanent threat, or not if that means pouring tons of money into the North crumbling economy, not to mention the level of endoctrination among its people. Would they prefer a UN mandate as a transition to reunification ITTL ?
North Korea is starting to decline, but it is still being propped up by the Soviets. A UN mandate is a real possibility if the USSR falls.
 
一百一, Li Ao
On May 20, 1990, something happened that would have seemed unbelievable not long before. The leader of China would not be a member of the Kuomintang. The last non-KMT leader of China was Zhang Zuolin, who had been assassinated nearly sixty-two years earlier. Just like Zhang Zuolin, Li Ao was a Northeasterner born in Harbin. Li Ao himself had not expected to become president until the fifth ballot in the National Assembly the previous month. The Chinese people, even those who had supported him, did not expect him to win either. Even after he had officially won the election, there were those who believed that something would happen between the election and the inauguration. Many believed that Li would be assassinated by the Juntong, or that a coup would take place right before the inauguration.

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(Li Ao)

But nothing like that happened. Li Ao arrived at Changjiang Street in front of the Presidential Palace in Nanking. He gave an inaugural speech as his predecessors had. He praised the success of democracy in China, and asked the audience to remember the sacrifices that had been made in order to get to where they were. He called for unity. He called for patriotism, reiterating his belief that China was the greatest country on earth and that soon the world would recognize it. His speech was well-received. Then Li Ao entered the Presidential Palace for his first day on the job. The whole event went by without incident. For the vast majority of Chinese people, their life continued as it had before.

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(Presidential Palace)

There were some changes that came immediately. On the 21st, people noticed that the portrait of Chiang Kai-shek in Beiping’s Tiananmen square was missing (Though Sun Yat-sen’s remained). It had been removed overnight, along with some other pictures of Chiang Kai-shek on government property. Li Ao would be the first Chinese President to not revere the elder Chiang. Songs like Without the Kuomintang there would be no China and White Sun in the Sky would no longer be played at state-sanctioned events. other change was outside of China. The Kuomintang had offices and affiliates all over the world, from Canada to Madagascar. These organizations would be put in the awkward position of promoting China but not its president.

Government funding to organizations at home and abroad that promoted the KMT was something Li Ao wanted to end. But the KMT, even with defections, still had a majority in the Legislative Yuan. This put Li in a unique situation, as every president before him had a legislature controlled by his own party. For Li, every appointment he made would need to be confirmed by the KMT-controlled Legislative Yuan. While the KMT no longer controlled the National Assembly, they had enough seats to block any constitutional amendment. Li Ao’s solution was to place non-KMT people into positions in some of these organizations. He was particularly interested in putting his allies in state-owned media positions. The media was still heavily in favor of the KMT. There were some in the media, however, whether out of genuine belief or opportunism, who were willing to offer an alternative viewpoint.

Li’s first task was political appointments. His main support during the presidential election came from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party had a very small bench of government officials, so the China Youth Party would get more presidential appointments. He also received a lot of support from the China Democratic Socialist Party, so they would have to get some positions as well. The KMT would block any appointees from the New Democratic League. He made Fei Hsi-ping, a former independent presidential candidate, China’s new premier. The position of President of the Judicial Yuan had been vacant since Lin Yang-kang had become Vice President. Li appointed Gao Wenbin, the leader of the Liberal Party, to replace him. Gao had been present at the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal, and had a distinguished career as a judge before joining the Liberal Party. Enough of the KMT voted to confirm him even though the majority did not.

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(Fei Hsi-ping)

For many other positions, the old KMT officeholders remained at their posts. Li Ao had promised that there would be members of the KMT in his administration. He believed that, though it was corrupt, there were still some good people in the party. He hoped that there would be defections from the party during his six years in office. One high-profile defection was Vice President Lin Yang-kang, who joined the China Youth Party as part of a deal made during the election. Before he defected, the KMT held a leadership election in June. Former Premier Hau Pei-tsun, backed by former president Wang Sheng and President of the Legislative Yuan Liang Surong, became the party’s new leader. Lin’s defection reflected poorly on Hau, who had urged delegates to support him in the Vice-Presidential election.

In 1990, China ended its support for Romania, though support for the Communist countries of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia (the latter of which was transitioning to democracy) continued. There was a renewed push for sanctions against South Africa, but by this point it seemed like South Africa was going to end apartheid in the near future. Li Ao refused to get China involved in Iran. Li would try to get Mongolia to jump ship from the Soviet Union to China, as the former was in decline and the latter was on the upsurge. The change in leadership in China did not mean a change in China’s policy towards the Soviet Union. Li Ao would see the USSR as an enemy.
 
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