The big knock on effects will be a considerably less developed Taiwan (obviously) as well as much less development of Hong Kong and Singapore as entrepôts with Shanghai and Canton open for business, I think
沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story
- Thread starter CELTICEMPIRE
- Start date
I wonder if Macau would still remain as a gambling and tourism hotspot
Hong Kong probably gets undercut even faster than OTL, given how its only real advantages as a base of operations for foreign companies OTL is that it’s not communist, relatively educated and sorta stable. The first is no longer a draw, and the other two are less impactful since the ROC will presumably avoid the cultural revolution and great leap forward (thus escaping abject poverty faster). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if pro-ROC agitators were continually supported in HK, both as a matter of easy political points at home (nationalism is a cheap way of getting votes) and because a large part of the KMT base would actually want to kick the British out.
Singapore’s main benefits are that compared to its neighbors (which are Malaysia and Indonesia, not China), it’s politically stable, observes rule of law, well-educated and English-speaking.
All of those still apply, if we’re assuming Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines go along even marginally similar paths as OTL.
Most of SE Asia should still end up outlawing gambling, which makes Macau the nearest fleshpot for their elites. So it has that going for it. If the ROC also ends up banning gambling then Macau should develop in a similar way as OTL, if not, then it’ll probably be somewhat less prosperous but similar enough.
So, how strong would you say would the Japanese left be ITTL without the PRC and the KMT pushing for harsher punishments for war criminals (hopefully Nobusuke Kishi, the Devil of Showa, is invited to a necktie party, if you know what I mean by that)?
Singapore is different, for reasons that alexffnet explained in his post. Taiwan will be less developed, and so will Hong Kong.
The KMT has agitators in Hong Kong and Macau. The government is currently more concerned with other matters though.
Macau currently has legal gambling and its casinos are popular. The gambling industry wasn't as big during this time as it would get later, however.
The left will be stronger than OTL. Nobusuke Kishi was released by the US in 1948 as per OTL. He's one of many people in Japan who have enough sense to not set foot in Chinese territory.
Hong Kong has another advantage, relative to Shanghai, Macau or Saigon, the high number of English speakers. I agree, *not* overwhelming compared to OTL.
The other question is whether the return of Kowloon & the New Territories in 1997 would necessarily cause Hong Kong itself to be returned, but that's so far out in the Future, I'm not sure there is a good answer.
As for whether Singapore becomes independent, I think the first question is whether it becomes part of Malaysia in the first place...
Very likely that the OTL path happens again. Singapore’s political leaders & founding fathers were pretty doubtful of the island’s chances alone. Keep in mind that this was in the early 60s, where tensions with seemingly-left Indonesia were rife (and they will have just annexed West Papua during this time). Singaporean ‘identity’ was also very much in its crib (if it existed at all). Add in the large Malay minority and economic/historical/cultural ties the Singaporean populace had with those of Malaya…
^that includes even the Singaporean Chinese majority, since even today there isn’t that much of a difference between them and Malaysian Chinese, especially the ones in Penang and JB.
There’s also an argument to be made that Lee Kuan Yew had greater ambitions of leadership in more than ‘just’ a city-state. Certainly, he wasn’t exactly happy with the idea of Singaporean independence when it was thrust upon them.
Democratic(ish) China, which is presumably a major military power and who will see the obvious political boons of getting HK back.
Add in the issue of a HK without Kowloon/NT being kinda up shit’s creek with regards to utilities and infrastructure.
Throw in the linguistic, cultural and social ties that exist between Guangdong province and HK, especially since this time around there isn’t the threat of communism or Mao for the Anglos to wave around as a spectre (and that the PRC isn’t around to cut off all foreign contact for general citizenry).
If anything, it’s more likely that HK gets brought back into the fold earlier than ‘97.
Unlikely Hong Kong represents the Century of Humiliation which any Chinese leader would seek to address.
I am thinking of a combination of the Romanian Revolution and German Unification
I wonder if when the shit hits the fan in Vietnam and the country descends into a bloody civil war, how effective would a Chinese-led OEAC intervention force be?
I am sure it would be a quick operation which will restore peace in Vietnam. /s
Malaysian independence is still a few years off, and I won't say whether or not Singapore remains within Malaysia.
It's pretty unlikely unless China collapses into warlordism again.
All I'm going to say is that Vietnam features prominently in many of the upcoming chapters.
十九, China's Response
Chiang Kai-shek reacted to the escalation of the conflict in Vietnam by condemning the Viet Minh. He wanted everyone to understand that the Viet Minh were the aggressors. He stated that China was on the side of the VNQDD, and that China would aid them in their struggle against Communism. Chiang hoped he wouldn’t have to send troops into Vietnam, so his plan for intervention did not involve any boots on the ground. Instead, the air force and navy would carry out the plan. The air force would bomb Viet Minh targets in Northern Vietnam. The navy would blockade Northern Vietnamese ports. This prevented Soviet and North Korean support from getting into the country. This created new tensions between the Soviet Union and China.
(Zhou Zhirou)
Zhou Zhirou, commander of the Chinese Air Force, ordered squadrons stationed in Guangdong and Hainan provinces to bomb military targets in Northern Vietnam. The bombers of choice would be the B-17 Flying Fortress, an iconic American plane from World War Two that was sold to China during the 1950s. The air force was aware of the locations of the most strategic targets thanks to the work of the Juntong and local anti-Communists who helped them. Several military facilities and training centers were destroyed. The Viet Minh’s air force was almost non-existent and was in no shape to challenge China. Chinese casualties were light. Only a handful of planes were shot down by anti-aircraft guns.
(B-17 Flying Fortress)
In May, the Viet Minh captured Việt Trì and conquered all of Phú Thọ Province. Thoughout Northern Vietnam, anti-Communists and suspected Chinese spies were rounded up and given hasty trials. The vast majority were executed. Suspected Communists were given the same treatment in territory controlled by the various anti-Communist factions. The Viet Minh launched an attack on Yên Bái, where the VNQDD military academy was located, in June, but were repelled. Ngô Đình Diệm’s recently organized Army of Vietnam went on the offensive against Communist guerillas in rural Central Vietnam, with little success. Diệm’s supporters were losing ground. Hue, the northernmost city under control of the Army of Vietnam, was under attack. In September, 25,000 AOV soldiers were evacuated to Nha Trang with the help of Britain. The city then fell to the Viet Minh.
In November 1957, the National Bureau of Investigation and Statistics released a report on Vietnam. A few days earlier, the city of Lai Châu had been captured, which was a massive blow to the VNQDD. The report stated that neither the VNQDD nor any other anti-Communist group could win. The Juntong was led by Ye Xiufeng, a member of the CC Clique, following the death of Mao Renfeng in 1956. Over the last few months, he had repeatedly told Chiang Kai-shek that the situation in Vietnam was dire. Chiang believed him. The Legislative Yuan believed him as well, and was in favor of full Chinese involvement in the conflict. China would intervene in the conflict. In January 1958, China would send troops into Vietnam in order to aid the VNQDD.
(Ye Xiufeng)
(Zhou Zhirou)
Zhou Zhirou, commander of the Chinese Air Force, ordered squadrons stationed in Guangdong and Hainan provinces to bomb military targets in Northern Vietnam. The bombers of choice would be the B-17 Flying Fortress, an iconic American plane from World War Two that was sold to China during the 1950s. The air force was aware of the locations of the most strategic targets thanks to the work of the Juntong and local anti-Communists who helped them. Several military facilities and training centers were destroyed. The Viet Minh’s air force was almost non-existent and was in no shape to challenge China. Chinese casualties were light. Only a handful of planes were shot down by anti-aircraft guns.
(B-17 Flying Fortress)
In May, the Viet Minh captured Việt Trì and conquered all of Phú Thọ Province. Thoughout Northern Vietnam, anti-Communists and suspected Chinese spies were rounded up and given hasty trials. The vast majority were executed. Suspected Communists were given the same treatment in territory controlled by the various anti-Communist factions. The Viet Minh launched an attack on Yên Bái, where the VNQDD military academy was located, in June, but were repelled. Ngô Đình Diệm’s recently organized Army of Vietnam went on the offensive against Communist guerillas in rural Central Vietnam, with little success. Diệm’s supporters were losing ground. Hue, the northernmost city under control of the Army of Vietnam, was under attack. In September, 25,000 AOV soldiers were evacuated to Nha Trang with the help of Britain. The city then fell to the Viet Minh.
In November 1957, the National Bureau of Investigation and Statistics released a report on Vietnam. A few days earlier, the city of Lai Châu had been captured, which was a massive blow to the VNQDD. The report stated that neither the VNQDD nor any other anti-Communist group could win. The Juntong was led by Ye Xiufeng, a member of the CC Clique, following the death of Mao Renfeng in 1956. Over the last few months, he had repeatedly told Chiang Kai-shek that the situation in Vietnam was dire. Chiang believed him. The Legislative Yuan believed him as well, and was in favor of full Chinese involvement in the conflict. China would intervene in the conflict. In January 1958, China would send troops into Vietnam in order to aid the VNQDD.
(Ye Xiufeng)
So, looks like this time it'll be China that gets dragged into the quagmire of the Vietnam War. Which makes me wonder - if the US isn't fighting in this war, what effect will that have on American culture?
It will have some pretty significant effects, which won't be seen for a while.
They aren't as strong. They look strong because their opponents are weak and divided.
二十, The Chinese Invasion
On January 15, 1958, two Chinese armies crossed the border into Vietnam. The first was led by Huang Shaohong. It would invade Northeastern Vietnam to help the VNQDD forces under attack there. Huang Shaohong was part of the New Guangxi Clique, and sending their soldiers out of the country might weaken the clique. Another, larger, army would be tasked with capturing Hanoi. It would be commanded by Li Mi, considered a hero for his exploits against Japan and the Communists. General Li was also a supporter of Chiang Kai-shek, and Chiang believed that he had a bright future ahead of him in the Chinese Army. Chiang’s younger son, Chiang Wei-kuo, was placed under Li’s command. Li Mi’s forces captured Hà Giang on the 16th.
(Left: Huang Shaohong, Right: Li Mi)
In February, Huang Shaohong’s forces, aided by the VNQDD, captured Lai Châu. Later that month, the battle of Hanoi began. The battle lasted for over a week, though most of the city was captured within three days. Chiang Kai-shek congratulated Li Mi for the liberation of the city. The battle was a taste of things to come. After most of the Viet Minh forces in Hanoi were defeated, some militant Communists dressed in civilian clothes would launch surprise attacks on Chinese soldiers. Nguyễn Tường Tam, leader of the VNQDD, was flown into Hanoi once the city was secure. He and Vũ Hồng Khanh met with DVQDD leader Nguyễn Tôn Hoàn to discuss the formation of a new government. Meanwhile, Chinese forces captured POW camps and liberated some VNQDD and DVQDD prisoners. The prisoners told of the torture they had received at the hands of the Viet Minh. Their stories were then used to drum up support for the war effort back in China.
Other countries were involved in Vietnam’s conflict as well, even if not to the same extent as China. The Soviet Union and North Korea were unable to get weapons and supplies into the country due to the Chinese blockade. The United States was still giving aid to Diem’s Army of Vietnam. South Korea sent over 5,000 soldiers to the country. Australia and New Zealand sent troops as well. As fighting raged on in Vietnam, Laos was experiencing its own Communist insurgency from the Pathet Lao, though the government had the upper hand there. Meanwhile, the Organization for East Asian Cooperation passed a resolution condemning the Viet Minh as the aggressors in the conflict. On the other hand, the Soviet Union claimed that China was the aggressor.
Chinese forces pushed South. They were able to advance quickly because of the aversion of the Viet Minh to conventional warfare. This also made it hard for their opponents to destroy them. In April, Vinh fell. In May, Chinese forces captured Đồng Hới and Hue. In June, Chinese Marines captured Quảng Ngãi as the Chinese army took Da Nang. In July, AOV forces took Qui Nhon. On August 1, AOV commander Cao Văn Viên met with Chinese general Li Mi at the town of Hoài Nhơn. The two shook hands and Nhơn expressed his willingness to work with the VNQDD. Later that month, DVQDD soldiers captured Ho Chi Minh outside of Phồn Xương. He would be executed in Hanoi in September. Also in September, the Chinese Army and Trình Minh Thế’s Caodaist nationalists eliminated most of the Viet Minh forces in the far South of Vietnam. By October, the Viet Minh controlled no major population centers.
(Ho Chi Minh, 1890-1958)
(Left: Huang Shaohong, Right: Li Mi)
In February, Huang Shaohong’s forces, aided by the VNQDD, captured Lai Châu. Later that month, the battle of Hanoi began. The battle lasted for over a week, though most of the city was captured within three days. Chiang Kai-shek congratulated Li Mi for the liberation of the city. The battle was a taste of things to come. After most of the Viet Minh forces in Hanoi were defeated, some militant Communists dressed in civilian clothes would launch surprise attacks on Chinese soldiers. Nguyễn Tường Tam, leader of the VNQDD, was flown into Hanoi once the city was secure. He and Vũ Hồng Khanh met with DVQDD leader Nguyễn Tôn Hoàn to discuss the formation of a new government. Meanwhile, Chinese forces captured POW camps and liberated some VNQDD and DVQDD prisoners. The prisoners told of the torture they had received at the hands of the Viet Minh. Their stories were then used to drum up support for the war effort back in China.
Other countries were involved in Vietnam’s conflict as well, even if not to the same extent as China. The Soviet Union and North Korea were unable to get weapons and supplies into the country due to the Chinese blockade. The United States was still giving aid to Diem’s Army of Vietnam. South Korea sent over 5,000 soldiers to the country. Australia and New Zealand sent troops as well. As fighting raged on in Vietnam, Laos was experiencing its own Communist insurgency from the Pathet Lao, though the government had the upper hand there. Meanwhile, the Organization for East Asian Cooperation passed a resolution condemning the Viet Minh as the aggressors in the conflict. On the other hand, the Soviet Union claimed that China was the aggressor.
Chinese forces pushed South. They were able to advance quickly because of the aversion of the Viet Minh to conventional warfare. This also made it hard for their opponents to destroy them. In April, Vinh fell. In May, Chinese forces captured Đồng Hới and Hue. In June, Chinese Marines captured Quảng Ngãi as the Chinese army took Da Nang. In July, AOV forces took Qui Nhon. On August 1, AOV commander Cao Văn Viên met with Chinese general Li Mi at the town of Hoài Nhơn. The two shook hands and Nhơn expressed his willingness to work with the VNQDD. Later that month, DVQDD soldiers captured Ho Chi Minh outside of Phồn Xương. He would be executed in Hanoi in September. Also in September, the Chinese Army and Trình Minh Thế’s Caodaist nationalists eliminated most of the Viet Minh forces in the far South of Vietnam. By October, the Viet Minh controlled no major population centers.
(Ho Chi Minh, 1890-1958)