They can, though it remains to be seen if they will.Well, the ROC can always force the Portuguese to Goa-away...
沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story
- Thread starter CELTICEMPIRE
- Start date
Poor Vietnam... Now talking about the South China Sea, the ROC would have a great advantage since in TTL 1956 Vietnam will not reopen the abandoned French camp on Shanhu Island and announce the annexation of the Paracel archipelago as well as the Spratlys for obvious reasons. So the Paracel are already Chinese territory, now about the Spratlys I think that the Chinese will establish several bases but I think that a "battle of Spratlys" (equivalent to OTL battle of the Paracels) against the Philippines (Vietnam will be preoccupied with its civil war) is not out of question.
Well China could also make a deal with whatever Vietnamese government comes out on top: we recognize your government as legitimate and will give some loans to you in exchange for the Spratlys and Paracels (just like what Vietnam did OTL with the PRC until 1973)
Except that by 1950, Park had been run out of the army as a suspected Communist. He returned to duty only after the NorK invasion.
He was just one of thousands whose lives were radically transformed by the war. If one compiled a list of the 500 most important South Koreans in 1950, IMO at least 100 and probably over 200 were dead, politically discredited, or financially ruined by OTL 1955, replaced by people who were obscure in 1950. Natural turnover would have been about 25-30.
So IMO composing a history of no-Korean-War RoK would require a deep dive into 1945-1950 RoK history. Not just politics, but also what was going on in business, religion, education. What were the major developments in this period, and which of them were wrecked by the war? And a quick survey of the post-war period to see what major developments arose because (and only because) of the war, to make sure they are left out.
For Japan, maybe Japanese politics are leftier than OTL owing to how the KMT winning in China means there is less of an incentive to rehabilitate the likes of Nobusuke Kishi with LDP domination butterflied away and a multi-party system instead developing?
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Fertile ground for the Japan Socialist Party to be a political force which can actually win elections, especially if the right is still split between the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party with Kishi getting his comeuppance for his crimes owing to his importance in setting up the LDP IOTL.
Given the different circumstances with Chiang Kai-Shek crushing the Communist forces, his suspected Communist affiliation with the Workers Party could be avoided with him not joining them or being discovered (Not being discovered part leading to him leaving them). Or someone like Paik Sun-Yup could assume Park's role instead given Paik's history which was much like Park Chung-hee serving under the Japanese in the Japanese-sponsored Manchukuo Army. Or if he was caught, Paik Sun-Yup could bail out Park given how the two were close and Paik did help Park rejoin the ROK Armed Forces.
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I’d never heard of this guy before but he’d be an interesting alt Korean strongman. Could have stuck around a while too - he only just died in 2020
So I haven't figured out everything when it comes to South Korea and Japan (though I have planned out the general direction for those countries). It will be a little while before I write much about them.
One of the things I realized I had neglected to talk about a week ago were the war crimes trials, though now I realize I can fit a little bit about that into the next chapter. The Kuomintang were, in general, harsher towards Japanese war criminals than the Communists (who would sometimes try to reeducate them). Puyi would be tried and face the death penalty if he set foot in the ROC (he currently lives in the Soviet Union).
Paik Sun-yup will be featured in this TL.
Well, Japan can also transform into an "Italian democracy" where a coalition of several parties dominates undisturbedly for decades (read Pentapartito). Maybe a "dual pact" is formed between the Liberal and Democratic Party but not an outright merger? Regarding Korea, I think that both Koreans will be more developed than in OTL thanks to no Korean war but I would like to elaborate a bit more on this topic:
1. North Korea will remain the more developed Korea thanks to a less paranoid leadership and no damage of the war.
2. South Korea will also be better off thanks to no war but without the American bases around the country and no war economy in the early 50s, the economy will develop more slowly than in OTL.
3. Japan will also likely develop a bit more slowly than in OTL for the same reasons as TTL South Korea
The question is whether one will be more industrialized than the other. Where are the Korean Coal and Iron deposits?
Also, are still going to have the cult of personality around Kim il-Sung?
In the North
With an RoC next door too rather than the PRC the US likely gives ROK way less money and it may just wind up a colder, more mountainous Thailand
OTOH, the RoC will likely pitch in with help.
...also, it's entirely likely that North Korea might collapse even before the Cold War ends.
To an extent, but they have their own war torn country and industry to rebuild
Is there any significant difference in resources or other characteristics by the fact that the border is exactly at 38 rather than the vaguely NE-SW line of the OTL border after the war? Looks like the North Koreans have more land than they do iOTL, but on the other hand, the border is farther from Seoul. Kaesong is in the ROK rather than in the PRK. Sokcho on the Eastern edge is reversed.
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South Korea and Japan will definitely receive less help from the US than in OTL.
There will still be a cult of personality.
Correct. As of the 1950s, Chinese foreign aid almost exclusively consists of sending weapons to groups like the VNQDD. The two countries have good relations (South Korea is friendly towards both China and the US), but China really isn't in the position to be giving them economic aid at this time.
I don't think it makes a huge difference.
A part of me imagines a Romanian Revolution with the North Korean collapse.
I could still see SK and Japan have a similar economic growth as OTL, but with a combination of American and Chinese aid. Albeit South Korea would develop faster with China favoring Korea more than Japan given China's feelings towards Japan.
Even though China isn't in the condition to provide aid, I can imagine once the 1960s starts China would be willing to give funds.
Plus I can forsee the Four Asian Tigers forming.
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