大陸戰爭: The Mainland War 1912-1969

I was considering not even having the Huangpu School exist ITTL but since the Federation's base is in Guangzhou I think it makes sense that it would still get founded despite the early PoD.
 
YELLOW RIVER INCIDENT Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 PART II

The Manchurian Reaction

In Fengtian, the Grand Marshal was livid. With the exception of the embarrassing Southern Expedition, Yuan Kewen had run the Northeast for nearly twenty years without getting embroiled in any of the chaos that reigned in China proper. Despite official propaganda calling for forceful reunification by means of crushing the Federation, the 48-year-old “Young Marshal” maintained that the country remained militarily, industrially, and politically incapable of all-out war. In fact, the NROC was undoubtedly the preeminent economic force in the former Qing empire, and probably its greatest military power as well. Yuan’s assessment held true only on the final, political point, which nonetheless justified his anxiety. He was painfully aware of the corrupt, bloated bureaucracy he had turned his father’s army into - even should the nation put all its effort into a war of reunification, it would be a Pyrrhic victory as the military government, running on relationships and nepotism, rather than solid government process, was sure to destabilize and fail.

As mentioned above, when Liu Zhennian reported back to Beijing with the news that he had sent his division to fight alongside the Central Plains rebels, Yuan did not even meet him. The Grand Marshal could not afford to disown Liu entirely - such a move would have been political suicide in a state that believed fervently in its dominance over all of China and had officially for over a decade enlisted millions of men for just this purpose. Instead, he simply decreed by way of the Beiyang High Command that “appropriate” men and supplies would be allocated for the campaign.

By mid-January 1938, with the Battle of Nanjing underway and going badly for the attackers, generals of the High Command met to discuss broadening the scope of NROC involvement in the war. Among them were Feng Yuxiang and Gao Songling, both of whom had been ardent supporters of Yuan during the early years of his rule, as well as Zhang Xueliang, who was Yuan’s right-hand man and generally accepted to be his successor. Feng and Gao proposed general mobilization to support the CPA, arguing that Liu’s actions had already taken the state down a path of no return. Yuan responded with his usual policy statement that the Republic was not ready for war, and added that the Soviet and Japanese reactions needed also to be taken into account. The danger of the Japanese responding with force to active Beiyang involvement need hardly be mentioned, the High Command agreed. However, though the Soviet Union had tacitly taken the side of the Beiyang regime in its China policy, this support was likely conditional - should the NROC make any sudden move to move out of Manchuria and contest the whole country, it could lead to Soviet displeasure or worse. The Grand Marshal dared his opposition to consult Soviet opinion on the matter.

To Yuan’s consternation, however, Liu Zhennian had already gone to the Soviet concession in Beijing in November 1937 and spoken with ambassador Richard Sorge, future Chairman of the Supreme Soviet. Sorge confirmed that his country would take no issue with Beiyang involvement in the Yellow River incident and considered it a “Chinese internal affair”.

When Feng and Gao brought out this revelation at the Fengtian meeting, Yuan was humbled. Zhang Xueliang immediately suggested a compromise. An “expeditionary force” of 50,000 Beiyang men, under his command, would be deployed to assist the CPA. Later, personnel from the Republican Guard would be mobilized as needed. These units, tasked with police operations, would require comparatively little in the way of supply and armament, being able to live off the land. Their commanders would be given ample compensation to ensure their loyalty. Marshal Yuan praised the plan, calling it an “opportunity to introduce the Central Plains folk to the immeasurable strength of the Republican Army and lay the foundation for imminent unification.”

In the next few months the comparatively well-disciplined armies of the CPA and Beiyang forces would continue to make gains in consolidating their hold on the Central Plains and making gains in the provinces of Shaanxi and Hubei. They often faced and prevailed against superior numbers of Federal forces. The “immeasurable strength” of the Republican Guard, however, would come to manifest only in its troops’ ability to plunder and terrorize the local communities, ruining whatever positive currency the CPA and Beiyang troops had with them beforehand. These mobs of proud, uniformed young men knew neither law nor etiquette. From the train stations they descended upon the land, helping themselves to whatever goods they could lay their hands on. In the vast majority of cases this simply meant food, but naturally money and jewelry were also fair game. Additionally, many of these men, who came from the disenfranchised, disproportionately male class of Manchurian society, saw indecent congress with local women as being included in their quartering rights as defined by their commanders. Outrage caused by the behavior of the Republican Guard is considered to be a primary factor in the success of Zhang Guotao’s Communist guerrillas.

Maoist Underground Campaigns

Though by early 1938 the Maoist base of Xi’an had been captured, the movement was far from dead. The Peasant Proletarian Party (PPP) and its associated forces dispersed into the countryside, bound together by a strict doctrine and system of correspondence. Zhang Guotao, a former warlord soldier from Jiangxi who had converted to the revolutionary cause in the 1920s, had long been actively in northern Hubei and continued to resist the CPA even after they had conquered the Central Plains. He and his men would set out on daring night missions to sabotage railways, steal from supply depots, and collect intelligence on the enemy, which they passed on to Mao. For several months, the Maoists encouraged the peasantry to blame landlords and warlords for their plight, explaining in simple terms that they needed only to seize what was rightfully theirs.

As the CPA and NROC occupation became harder on the rural folk, support for the cause grew. Men and women of all ages collaborated with the underground movement. Numerous pieces of literature have been written detailing the exploits of impoverished farmers in this era, including authentic period works as well as Maoist and socialist propaganda of later decades. Notable feminists, for instance, wrote of the heroic peasant women who liberated themselves after seeing and suffering the “brute manifestation of patriarchy” exhibited by the ravenous Republican hordes.

Communist guerrilla operations became so widespread in the spring and summers of 1938 that the CPA and Beiyang forces had to divert combat units from their posts at the front to neutralize them. In many cases, communist personnel turned out to be deserted or turncoat Republican Guards.

Next: Yellow River Incident Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 Part III
 
I wonder how long until the Soviets would jump in.

Also, how is Korea at the moment ? Surely still under Japan, but in what form ?
 
Too bad that the Japanese socialists might well view their Chinese comrades as ideological heretics due the differences of doctrine - an insurrection like this is is doomed in the long run without outside help or a safe staging area.
 
Too bad that the Japanese socialists might well view their Chinese comrades as ideological heretics due the differences of doctrine - an insurrection like this is is doomed in the long run without outside help or a safe staging area.
We'll see what the Japanese have planned. It'll be interesting, I think.
 
YELLOW RIVER INCIDENT Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 PART III

Spring and Summer Counteroffensives

While the CPA contended with the internal guerrilla threat and a hesitant Beiyang High Command, the deployed federal army had begun to look increasingly like the 600,000-man force promised by Wang Jingwei the last year. Instead of attacking the by now well-fortified cities of Wuchang and Hankou, Wang’s generals decided to clear up the peripheries of the theatre. Generals Li Zongren and Li Hengti’s forces, designated the Nanjing Area Army, were now 350,000 strong and in good supply. In the west, a new force under the command of Zhu De had been created to assist the PPP guerillas (and, Wang hoped, bring them into his federal control) and retake their base area of Xi’an, which had been overrun early in the war by the troops of Liao Yaoxiang. Roughly 150,000 troops were made available to General Zhu for this purpose.

This two-fold strategy, calling first for the consolidation of southern Shaanxi and then a decisive battle to destroy the bulk of the CPA-Beiyang forces on the Central Plain, was initiated in March. For the next three months, Zhu De’s men advanced through Sichuan and fought bitterly against He Yingqin’s troops. In May He was finally forced to withdraw from Xi’an, whereupon he retreated to regroup at Zhengzhou. The Federal army was now in control of major mountains ranges, the PPP had regained their base area, and the CPA force holding Wuchang was now in peril.

Second Battle of Nanjing, Autumn 1938

The recapture of the Shaanxi area by Zhu De had begun to turn the war to the Federation’s favor, but it startled Fengtian. Yuan Kewen had assumed that the Federal forces constituted a paper tiger weighed down by warlordism and corruption and did not expect them to hold up to, let alone prevail against the “crack troops” of the CPA, as he termed them. Now, while Zhu’s success prompted him to reconsider, what happened in late summer forced him to act.

While Yuan, far away from the battle, took his time pondering his options, the CPA was at its breaking point. In July, Jia Deyao and Liu Zhennian held a meeting in Xuzhou. The atmosphere was icy. Jia accused Liu openly, regarding his promise of full Beiyang support as “empty words”. Liu responded that the Grand Marshal would soon be compelled to “personally inspect” the Nanjing front. He then presented a plan to Jia and his staff that would be undertaken in the following months, and, if successful, would “create something out of nothing”.

In August 1938, CPA and Nationalist forces had a combined 300,000 men occupying the area around the Grand Canal just north of Nanjing which, Liu proposed, could be sent to force an encirclement of the city. Though there was no way of actually achieving success with just that number of troops, more than 100,000 of which were second-rate Republican Guardsmen, the move would force Yuan’s hand, forcing him to deploy the full force of the professional Beiyang Army. Only in this way could Nanjing be taken and the initiative regained. The longer the CPA waited to make a move, the more men and weapons the Federalists could build up for an overwhelming assault, similar to that which had happened in Shaanxi. Jia, though reluctant to throw his personal army into what could well be a death trap, ultimately agreed to the plan.

Jia’s suspicions were proven correct when the Second Battle of Nanjing began in mid-August. This time, rather than try to enter the city, CPA troops under Jia forced a wedge between Nanjing and the railways leading to Shanghai. Liu Zhennian’s divisions (now bolstered by Republican Guards and various Shandong militias) handled the western face of the Southern Capital. No less than two days into the operation there was already full-on direct engagement between the two armies. However, after ten days the encirclement seemed to be succeeding as the attackers sacrificed everything for speed of advance. It was later determined that Li Zongren had anticipated the attack, but decided that the assault would again aim to take the city head-on and furthermore that it would not take place before sufficient preparations had been made.

Indeed, by September it was clear that the attackers were badly overstretched. However, the other half of the plan had worked. In late August, Yuan relented and authorized full deployment of the Beiyang Army with himself as its commander. Approximately 200,000 troops were allotted to the so-called “Jiangsu Route Army”, the first divisions of which hurried by rail to the front from Beijing.

Now that the Grand Marshall had thrown in his lot with the CPA, the ongoing battle for Nanjing was now officially more than a large fight between warlords, but rather an all-out war involving the two main contenders for dominance over the nation. The struggle for the city was a symbol for the struggle to unify China, from which neither side could easily back down. In Guangdong and elsewhere throughout the Federation, newspapers began publishing articles highlighting a statement from Wang Jingwei that Nanjing was to be made the official capital in 1940; in Beijing and Manchuria, the city was termed the “pass to China south of the Yangtze”.

Meeting Yuan’s Jiangsu Route Army were, in addition to the over 300,000 men of the Nanjing Area Army, an additional 200,000 new troops diverted from Zhu De’s forces as well as former PPP guerillas and newly-recruited men. It was the latter group that was to break the encirclement and protect the capital-to-be.

The “encirclement” planned by Liu and Jia, being largely a political move to force Yuan into the fight, quickly crumbled and the forces involved regrouped with the Jiangsu Route Army. The western approach to Nanjing was thus abandoned, though a major salient occupied by over 200,000 men still existed between Nanjing and Shanghai. In addition to the Beiyang, men and boys of the Republican Guard were being shipped into the Yellow River region by the thousands to support the ongoing operations. By October 1938, as Yuan led his armies into Nanjing, 900,000 men of the Blue Sky, White Sun emblem were active in the war effort or awaiting deployment. Their Federal counterparts similarly boasted of one million men under arms by the end of September.

Despite the ample enthusiasm with the Nationalists and their Grand Marshall afforded the battle, however, the battle soon became a bloody tragedy of proportions not seen since the Taiping Rebellion. Yuan Kewen was not an experienced general, and his immediate staff he had selected for the operation were, by and large, his cronies who had gotten their positions because of loyalty rather than merit. Experienced and senior officers tended to find themselves in command of minor units or worse, Republican Guard details. The troops of the Beiyang fought fiercely to capture the city, and in many cases enjoyed success, but at huge prices. Majors and colonels trying to outshine one another in the presence of the Grand Marshal often sent their men into ambitious assaults, or failed to support their comrades lest the chance at quick glory escape them. Moreover, the defenders, having defended the town successfully almost a year before, were well-prepared for the fighting. Especially vulnerable were the hot-headed youths of the Republican Guards, who died by the thousands in pointless human wave charges against fortified positions.

By the general cessation of urban combat in early December 1938, nearly 200,000 soldiers of the CPA and Nationalist armies had been killed since August. Most of these were militia fighters and Republican Guardsmen. The Beiyang troops fared drastically better, comprising only about one tenth of the dead. The Federal Nanjing Area Army, by contrast, had lost about half that of the invaders. And though the city’s residents had largely evacuated or braced themselves for the fighting, it is estimated that between 50,000 and 100,000 noncombatants lost their lives.

Next: Yellow River Incident Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 Part IV: The Aftermath of Nanjing and the Federal Offensive
 
YELLOW RIVER INCIDENT Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 PART III

Next: Yellow River Incident Nov 1937 - Mar 1939 Part IV: The Aftermath of Nanjing and the Federal Offensive

I'm quite pleased to see this return. I am curious, though, why Wang's men suffered so many casualties when they had better troops. Is it just the defensive advantage? That makes sense, considering all the Chinese armies are probably lacking in heavy seige guns, etc, to counter enemy strong points. Or is it just that the Federal "crack troops" weren't as superior as thought?

Anyway, looking forward to seeing more.
 
I'm quite pleased to see this return. I am curious, though, why Wang's men suffered so many casualties when they had better troops. Is it just the defensive advantage? That makes sense, considering all the Chinese armies are probably lacking in heavy seige guns, etc, to counter enemy strong points. Or is it just that the Federal "crack troops" weren't as superior as thought?

Anyway, looking forward to seeing more.

I thought it was Yuan's men who suffered more? Unless I totally misread the update... :eek:

Marc A
 
I'm quite pleased to see this return. I am curious, though, why Wang's men suffered so many casualties when they had better troops. Is it just the defensive advantage? That makes sense, considering all the Chinese armies are probably lacking in heavy seige guns, etc, to counter enemy strong points. Or is it just that the Federal "crack troops" weren't as superior as thought?

Anyway, looking forward to seeing more.

I thought it was Yuan's men who suffered more? Unless I totally misread the update... :eek:

Marc A
Yeah, it was Yuan's troops that lost 200,000 men. Wang Jingwei's guys suffered about 100,000 dead.

It's devastating to think that this is only the beginning of a series of long and bloody wars :(
From 1912 until around now there have been less than a couple million deaths that can be even remotely attributed to armed conflicts in China. This is about to change.
 
The Yellow River War: The First Japanese Intervention and Endgame, Dec 1938 - Feb 1940

The failure once again of the Beiyang/CPA armies to conquer Nanjing resulted in a lasting morale boost for Wang Jingwei's federal troops and their generals. Drawing on this, the southern armies, in collusion with the communist PPP guerrillas, began an active series of counterattacks, first in the areas immediately outside of Nanjing as well as in the Wuchang-Hankou-Hanyang urban conglomeration. By the end of the January 1939 elements of the Beiyang army were actively engaged on all fronts.

To the southeast, over three decades of harsh American rule over the Philippines came to an end when a short but decisive Japanese-American naval engagement in February 1939, involving the skillful use of long-range torpedoes and naval aviation, resulted in the signing of a treaty granting independence to the former colony. The second officially socialist country in Asia was born.

Victory over the Americans and liberation of the Philippines was not merely cause for huge celebration in Japan, but also emboldened the ambitions of the Foreign Affairs Committee and the Japanese Navy. Japanese advisors and weapons had long assisted federal and to a lesser extent PPP forces; now there existed the political will to aid Wang Jingwei's ongoing struggle. In May, several divisions of the vaunted Japanese Marines were sent to Nanjing via the Yangtze. Their contribution, made famous in the form of the "Grand Canal" and "Yellow River" operations (Daiunga to Kouga Sakusen), broke the back of the CPA, and with it, any hope on the part of Yuan Kewen and the Beiyang generals to remain in control of the Central Plains. But the defenders put up an obstinate fight, going so far as to break the Yellow River dams, which slowed the federal advance for several months. It was an ultimately senseless act of destruction; in the latter half of 1939, federal armies swarmed into Henan and Shandong, violating even areas that had long fallen squarely into the sphere of Beiyang influence. The breaching of the dams served only to cause the deaths of some 500,000 people from drowning, disease, and starvation, force millions more into refuge, and tarnish the reputation of the National Republic of China and her fighting men.

Aftermath

A cease-fire was signed between Beiyang and Federal generals in February of 1940. Shandong was lost. A demarcation line was set up dangerously close to Beijing, and Nationalist troops were barred from the city of Tianjin, which was occupied by a Japanese police force.

True to his word, Wang Jingwei moved the capital of the Federation from Guangzhou to Nanjing, into the beautification of which vast sums of money were spent. In the countryside, the Maoist PPP had spread like a weed, using whatever means possible to gain influence over the peasantry. In the coming decade, the political rift between Wang and Mao would prove deadly - Mao and his supporters would support military and social factionalism against Wang's polices, and embarked on a gradually intensifying revolutionary campaign to discredit enemies of the PPP, which in 1942 was renamed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

In Manchuria, the war had rather immediate consequences. Hundreds of thousands of young men had been killed, wounded, or dispersed by the fighting. The economic hit was also significant as many businesses suffered from increased taxation and inflation. However, the war had forced the region's growing industrial might to ready itself for a war footing, which would later be of great use. Marshal Yuan Kewen was gradually inched out of power by his subordinates, who pinned upon him the blame for losing Central China. A coalition of Beiyang generals would thus preside over Nationalist affairs in the following years and throughout the time of the Second Japanese Intervention, when the fortunes of war would finally shift in their favor.

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This was the final "update" (a summary of the end of the Yellow River War, really) of this rendition of THE MAINLAND WAR. The reasons for this are varied. I am happy to have gotten as far as I did with this story, but I feel like I am lacking in the concentrated historical knowledge needed to make a TL that I can be satisfied with, especially as in the last half-year I have continued to read about early modern Chinese history. There are simply too many details I have overlooked and too many opportunities I missed. The scope of my project is also rather ambitious.

That being said, I do not consider this a failure, but rather, an interesting test run. Indeed, I think this work has done its job well as an initial draft. I feel more familiar with the relevant historical period and thus a lot more prepared to create and present the TL in a better-researched, more sensible, and compelling future rendition.

Such a future rendition will probably focus on the Chinese Northeast, since this has ended up becoming something of my "research focus" for the last year or so. Look forward to it.
 
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