东方红 (The East is Red)
- Thread starter YLi
- Start date
It would not be safe for Soviets to base any jet fighters out of airfields in South Korea. Soviets would have a hard time transferring jet fighters to Kimpo without sustaining heavy losses, and USAF could easily crater Kimpo with B-26s and other schnellbombers as they did when they lost it IOTL.
The difference here is that Soviet fighters were already operating out of North Korean airfields by the time units were transferred to G/Kimpo. While the USAF would be able to contest the skies further south, the Soviets have a way to fight back ITTL.
Seleucus said:
The Chinese have quite a bit more leverage in this situation that you might think, given how many American prisoners they're holding and the fact that the US in 1951 has a fairly limited stock of nuclear warheads, making nuclear extortion less feasible in light of needing to protect Europe against the Soviet Union.
China already has a bunch of POWs. Grabbing marginally more POWs wouldn't really change America's mind, nor would it significantly alter the current situation.
Hmm...fair enough, I'll edit that bit so that they stick around outside the Pusan Perimeter.
The US was never able to bring enough reinforcements to Korea in time, so the Chinese could repair the rail lines running from Sinujiu to Seoul. This would greatly ease their logistical requirements. American forces pulled back too quickly to thoroughly destroy the rail lines, making it plausible for Chinese railway construction units to fix the lines.
Also, early in the war, the KPA was a few hours away from overrunning the Pusan Perimeter and they were mostly on foot. The PLA has the benefit of having more trucks and tanks than the KPA did.
Zmflavius said:
This isn't necessarily a good thing.
Zhou Enlai
Dean Acheson
April 18th, 1951: Zhou Enlai understands that he has a surprising amount of leverage when it comes to negotiations with the Americans. He demands that Taiwan be reunified with China as condition for the return of the American prisoners held by the Chinese. Acheson thinks about this but cannot accede to this request on his own.
April 20th, 1951: Mao, having come to his senses somewhat, flies to Moscow to meet with Stalin.
Stalin agrees to grant extensive aid to the Chinese, especially with regards to its nuclear program. Although he knows that China won't play second fiddle to the Soviets for long, the Americans had already used nuclear weapons twice in the last 10 years against conventionally equipped opponents, while waging offensive wars that it had started. Therefore, Russia needs strong friends if it's to survive in the long run against an imperialist power willing to use nuclear weapons.
April 21st, 1951: Kim Il Sung is last seen taking a train out of Korea escorted by PLA guards.
Kim Il Sung, 1912-1951
April 25th, 1951: After a briefing by General Curtis LeMay regarding the readiness of American forces in Europe, Congress narrowly votes to return Taiwan to the PRC. Senator Joseph McCarthy denounces this act as cowardice. However, the United States simply does not have enough nuclear weapons to defeat both the Soviet Union and China at this time.
April 30th, 1951: A preliminary treaty is signed in Geneva between China and the United States. The provisions are as follows:
-The US 7th Fleet is to withdraw from the Taiwan Straits and US airbases on Taiwan are to be closed. Members of the Nationalist Government will be evacuated at their request. The United States will not hinder the PRC retaking Taiwan but they are not obligated to assist either.
-Prisoners will be transferred starting immediately.
-The People's Republic of China will be admitted to the United Nations and will take the ROC's place on the Security Council pending a vote by the UN General Assembly.
-Korea is to be divided along the 38th Parallel, reflecting pre-war borders. However, Chinese troops will not withdraw from their positions until Taiwan is under PRC control. The fate of Korea will be decided later.
Since Congress never declared war on China, the treaty will not need to clear the Senate.
May 1st, 1951: Senator Joseph McCarthy, fortified by copious amounts of Irish whiskey, delivers a speech at a press conference decrying the American government's handling of Korea, McCarthy's speech galvanizes American hawks and conservatives.
May 11th, 1951: Zhang Xueliang escapes from house arrest. It is unknown who let him escape.
May 13th: The US 7th Fleet withdraws from the Taiwan Straits. US Air Force personnel begin to evacuate American bases in Taiwan.
May 14th, 1951: Mao orders the 14th and 22nd Army Groups to Fujian in preparation for the invasion of Taiwan. The 1st Army Group, which was already in position on the coast of Fujian, commences bombardment of Jinmen and Mazu, two islands off the coast of Fujian.
May 22nd, 1951: After a week of bombardment, the 1st Army Group lands and retakes Jinmen and Mazu from the Republic of China.
May 30th, 1951: The Guomindang is in dismal financial straits, especially since American assistance is about to end. This fact, as well as the upcoming invasion from the Mainland, makes many RoC soldiers contemplate their future.
June 1st, 1951: Lin Biao reports that the invasion of the Pescadores should be able to proceed within 3 months and that Taiwan can be invaded by 1952. While Mao wants to invade Taiwan more quickly, Lin is backed up by Peng Dehuai, who notes that conducting an invasion of Taiwan would be significantly more difficult than invading Korea.
June 4th, 1951: Senator Joseph McCarthy goes on the warpath, accusing several high ranking members of the military of having communist sympathies. Among the accused is Matthew Ridgway, who McCarthy accuses of not having done enough to extricate the trapped 8th Army from Korea.
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If my readers are wondering why nuclear extortion might not be a viable tactic, try to remember that Operation Dropshot was scheduled for 1957 and was only going to use 300 bombs. It would have been very difficult to overcome the Soviets or Chinese with nuclear weapons alone, especially if it's only 1951. Plan Totality, the plan before Dropshot, only involved 20-30 nuclear weapons.
Right now, China controls the Korean Peninsula after the evacuation of the last American troops. This inconvenient fact makes negotiations for the Americans quite difficult.
Right now, China controls the Korean Peninsula after the evacuation of the last American troops. This inconvenient fact makes negotiations for the Americans quite difficult.
Cryhavoc101
Donor
Looks good
But
November 30-December 5th: Repeated attempts by the X Corps to break out fail as PLA units move to engage in close combat with them. The US 1st Marine and 7th Infantry divisions are destroyed in savage fighting around the Chosin Reservoir. The 1st Marines would take over 50% casualties before surrendering.
The Marines with 7th ID and a small British Royal Marine Commando unit were the only 'UN' force that advanced 'correctly' (actually critisized at the time for advancing too slowly by the US Army) and therefore were able to more easily extract themselves with much greater cohesion and discipline than other 'UN' forces to the West.
Far more likely that one or more of the 'routed' US Army Divisions to the West would be surrounded and forced to surrender.
Just my Tupence worth
But
November 30-December 5th: Repeated attempts by the X Corps to break out fail as PLA units move to engage in close combat with them. The US 1st Marine and 7th Infantry divisions are destroyed in savage fighting around the Chosin Reservoir. The 1st Marines would take over 50% casualties before surrendering.
The Marines with 7th ID and a small British Royal Marine Commando unit were the only 'UN' force that advanced 'correctly' (actually critisized at the time for advancing too slowly by the US Army) and therefore were able to more easily extract themselves with much greater cohesion and discipline than other 'UN' forces to the West.
Far more likely that one or more of the 'routed' US Army Divisions to the West would be surrounded and forced to surrender.
Just my Tupence worth
I mean, 2nd and 9th ID in the West would end up getting cut off if the PLA could overrun the Turkish Brigade and set up blocking positions in Kunu-ri before the Americans can get there. This happens in the TL.
One of the problems in OTL is that the PLA units around Chosin ended up attacking the 1st Marines and 7th ID head on, when they could have attacked further south and ended up in the American rear instead, cutting off their retreat. With a bit of better luck, Hagaru-ri could have been taken on November 27th, preventing the airfield there from being opened to aerial resupply and making it very difficult for the X Corps to retreat, even with extensive air support.
February 28th, 1951: William C. Patrick, an Army bioweapons engineer, suggests that biological weapons be used against the Chinese wheat and rice crops and suggests several organisms which may be helpful. Congress orders Patrick to further investigate this possibility.
<snip>
April 25th, 1951: After a briefing by General Curtis LeMay regarding the readiness of American forces in Europe, Congress narrowly votes to return Taiwan to the PRC. Senator Joseph McCarthy denounces this act as cowardice. However, the United States simply does not have enough nuclear weapons to defeat both the Soviet Union and China at this time.
The treaty is sent to Congress to sign.
May 1st, 1951: Senator Joseph McCarthy, fortified by copious amounts of Irish whiskey, delivers a 24 hour filibuster against the treaty. Congress and the Senate vote to approve the treaty anyway, since most of the members just want to get on with life and put Korea behind them. Although ultimately unsuccessful, McCarthy's speech galvanizes American hawks and conservatives.
That's not how the American government works. Congress cannot order an individual Army officer to investigate any particular course of action. Assuming Patrick discussed this during classified testimony before a committee, the Chairman could request periodic briefings on the matter. Congress could earmark funds for the project. But Congress does not give orders to specific officers.
No treaty could get to the Senate floor within a week of its signing (and it's only the Senate that deals with the ratification of treaties, the House does not get to vote on them). The Committees on Armed Services and Foreign Relations would insist on having the opportunity to go over the document before the full Senate would have the opportunity to debate it.
<snip>
April 25th, 1951: After a briefing by General Curtis LeMay regarding the readiness of American forces in Europe, Congress narrowly votes to return Taiwan to the PRC. Senator Joseph McCarthy denounces this act as cowardice. However, the United States simply does not have enough nuclear weapons to defeat both the Soviet Union and China at this time.
The treaty is sent to Congress to sign.
May 1st, 1951: Senator Joseph McCarthy, fortified by copious amounts of Irish whiskey, delivers a 24 hour filibuster against the treaty. Congress and the Senate vote to approve the treaty anyway, since most of the members just want to get on with life and put Korea behind them. Although ultimately unsuccessful, McCarthy's speech galvanizes American hawks and conservatives.
That's not how the American government works. Congress cannot order an individual Army officer to investigate any particular course of action. Assuming Patrick discussed this during classified testimony before a committee, the Chairman could request periodic briefings on the matter. Congress could earmark funds for the project. But Congress does not give orders to specific officers.
No treaty could get to the Senate floor within a week of its signing (and it's only the Senate that deals with the ratification of treaties, the House does not get to vote on them). The Committees on Armed Services and Foreign Relations would insist on having the opportunity to go over the document before the full Senate would have the opportunity to debate it.
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The CPC is unlikely to compromise regarding Taiwan, so if the Americans want their prisoners back, the only way that happens is if the US withdraws from Taiwan. That is the only deal the Americans are getting. They can take it, or they can waste many nukes dropping them on the Chinese countryside (nobody in China really lived in cities in 1950).
The US has already been kicked off the Korean Peninsula and the second Chinese offensive netted them quite a few prisoners as well.
It's likely the CPC is willing to trade South Korea for Taiwan, as RosseauX suggested.