《DISCUSS》Clinton Assassination, World Conflict

[The Third Man]

I have some ideas for a possible alternate fiction sequence of events, and I was hoping that this community could give some feedback/discussion

Anyway, back in late 1996 (after the election) Clinton is at the APEC summit in Manila, in real life there was a foiled assassination attempt by none other than Osama Bin Laden. My point of divergence is this day, where the incumbent president-elect (is that right?) dies and Al Gore becomes new leader.

From here you'd think that the Kyoto Protocol would be pushed, gas and oil prices rise - and obviously the war on Terror would begin. I also love the idea of Lieberman becoming the vice-president (zionist), and there being some sort of terrorist attack in Israel that results in a major invasion, like 2003 in the real world.

Any other ideas? I'd also like to know how the unification of US/Mexico would be placed into the structure of ideas at all

 

[Emperor Norton I]

I have some ideas for a possible alternate fiction sequence of events, and I was hoping that this community could give some feedback/discussion

Anyway, back in late 1996 (after the election) Clinton is at the APEC summit in Manila, in real life there was a foiled assassination attempt by none other than Osama Bin Laden. My point of divergence is this day, where the incumbent president-elect (is that right?) dies and Al Gore becomes new leader.

From here you'd think that the Kyoto Protocol would be pushed, gas and oil prices rise - and obviously the war on Terror would begin. I also love the idea of Lieberman becoming the vice-president (zionist), and there being some sort of terrorist attack in Israel that results in a major invasion, like 2003 in the real world.

Any other ideas? I'd also like to know how the unification of US/Mexico would be placed into the structure of ideas at all

Butterflies. Just because Lieberman was VP on the 2000 ticket of the OTL doesn't mean he'll be on that ticket in this timeline. Anything else, other people know better than me and can respond better.

 

[Orville_third]

Republicans would still be in charge of Congress, unless Gore can both appeal to Clinton and demonize Republicans. (The latter would be comparatively easy after the government shutdowns). I can imagine Republicans trying to blame Clinton for Bin Laden. (And if Gore does what he did to pay for the campaign in 1996- he'd be impeached for sure...(Though if he's impeached, he may take some republicans down with him.))
Gore rediscovered his populism and environmentalism after not being sworn in in 2001. I don't think Kyoto would go forward- though that's also to do with the Senate...

 

[The Third Man]

I understand man, and I am an Australian so knowing pretty much anything that isn't on a source on the internet is hard for me. Like I have no idea who Al Gore would have got in as VP had he become it in 1996. I chose Lieberman because of 2000 and also because he is an Israeli sympathiser and would have made decisive action against the Middle East if an attack was made.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Unifciation of US and Mexico is ASB. Gore would not be able to ratify Kyoto for the same reason Clinton couldn't: the votes didn't exist in the Senate, including many coal (West Virginia, Pennsylvania) and Rust Belt-state (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota) Democrats. Other VP choices would be Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). IMO Kerry would pick either Kerry or Bayh, depending whether he wanted regional and ideological balance or wanted to double down ideologically, in which case he'd pick Bayh.

 

[Glass Onion]

As far as I recall, the only reason Gore chose Lieberman in 2000 was because of Gore's desire to distance himself from Clinton's moral indiscretions. Lieberman was one of Clinton's most vocal critics in the Democratic party during the Lewinsky mess.

This is a kind of unprecedented situation, since Clinton has yet to be sworn in for his second term. Though I think we can safely assume President Gore would be sworn in to serve Clinton's second term.

To see who Gore's Vice President would be it might be useful to look at the other candidates for the position IOTL 2000:

John Kerry
John Edwards
Richard Gephardt
Jeanne Shaheen
Evan Bayh

We can safely dismiss John Edwards from the equation for obvious reasons, he didn't become a Senator until after the 1998 election, and Al Gore is not going to pick some random trial lawyer to be the new Vice President.

Jeanne Shaheen didn't become Governor until 1997 so she get's tossed off the list too.

That leaves us with three choices. Evan Bayh, Richard Gephardt, and John Kerry. Considering the 1988 campaign, I don't think President Gore will choose Gephardt. So in this list my guess is it's either Kerry or then Governor Bayh.

Also, not to annoy Emperor Norton, but wouldn't Bill Clinton kind of be President Kennedy mark II here? I mean, Clinton had accomplished a hell of a lot by the time of his death here. He had already signed welfare reform for example, and he had put the nation on the general path to a balanced budget and the surplus that occurred in his second term. Not a one to one ratio obviously, but I think it's certainly possible that Bill Clinton would be mourned as a great and charismatic President who was cut down too soon. I think we'd probably still have people wishing he had survived.

Also, conspiracy theories, lot's and lot's of conspiracy theories concerning "Who really killed Bill Clinton"

 

[Glass Onion]

Unifciation of US and Mexico is ASB. Gore would not be able to ratify Kyoto for the same reason Clinton couldn't: the votes didn't exist in the Senate, including many coal (West Virginia, Pennsylvania) and Rust Belt-state (Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota) Democrats. Other VP choices would be Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). IMO Kerry would pick either Kerry or Bayh, depending whether he wanted regional and ideological balance or wanted to double down ideologically, in which case he'd pick Bayh.

You posted a bit more quickly than I did, so I apologize for the repetition but to your probable relief there is no way Edwards would become Vice President in 1996/1997. He was elected to the Senate in 1998. Same problem for Shaheen. I agree with you on the final choice.

 

[The Third Man]

Thanks for the information Glass Onion, that's the kind of stuff I like to know.

Could the Drug cartels/corruption in Mexico lead to a unification or at least allowing Mexico to become an autonomous state of the USA?

Surely 1996 is around the same time as all those Zaph(sp?) rebels in Mexico, could they have done something in this time period?

Finally with Clinton, wasn't he very, very popular before the Lewinsky scandal? If he died in 1996 the scandal would be nothing more than a vicious rumour from Republicans to degrade the martyred president.

Wouldn't he also get a large building named after himself like JFK? What large infrastructure was around ~1996/1997

 

[RogueBeaver]

Unification of the US and Mexico is ASB, period. Clinton's popularity did not dip below 55% in his second term, and was usually in the early-to-mid 60s from 1996 onwards. Clinton might get something named after him, unsure what it would be though.

 

[Glass Onion]

Unification of the US and Mexico is ASB, period. Clinton's popularity did not dip below 55% in his second term, and was usually in the early-to-mid 60s from 1996 onwards. Clinton might get something named after him, unsure what it would be though.

William Jefferson Clinton International Airport?

 

[Typo]

Thanks for the information Glass Onion, that's the kind of stuff I like to know.

Could the Drug cartels/corruption in Mexico lead to a unification or at least allowing Mexico to become an autonomous state of the USA?

No, under no circumstance whatsoever in the period would the US annex territory of any sort, especially not one with Non-English speaking non-whites.

 

[Whanztastic]

I like POTUS Gore/VPOTUS Biden

 

[SavoyTruffle]

An overlooked consequence would be that the Philippines would have a much worse rep than OTL, as they managed to let the assassination succeed.

 

[Swan Station]

My primary question:

Although certainly not having the same death toll as the attacks of 9/11/01, the reaction within the American public would probably be quite similar. I bet you'd even see Limbaugh and his ilk stepping up in support of the (former) Clinton administration at least for a couple of days. "My friends, if you'd told you a week ago I'd be saying this, I wouldn't have believed you..."

What I want to know, however, is how the administration would act? Would Gore begin a "war on terror" over this? Would there be an attack on Afghanistan? I wouldn't think you'd get a *TSA or *Homeland Security out of this, but there might still be a reorganization of the government's intelligence network in response to it's failure to protect the president.