“Destruction at Lutzen”: Napoleon wins in 1813 ATL

[hasdrubal barca]

Some important factors here
2 Weak state of the French army. Many new conscripts and provisional regiments in he infantry. The French cavalry was terrifyingly weak and IOTL this remained a serious problem in 1813 and 1814

I should have a new update up in a few days, i've been busy with my Constantinople TL. Why i decided to attempt two TLs at once is still a mystery to me

I had an idea in regard to the French cavalry. I read that prior to the Leipzig Campaign Napoleon brought veteran cavalry over from Spain. This was partly the reason his cavalry preformed better during that battle.

So what if Napoleon pulled cavalry from Spain earlier in time for Lutzen? It might leave Joseph short handed at Vitoria but I think its worth it.

 

[lucaswillen05]

I should have a new update up in a few days, i've been busy with my Constantinople TL. Why i decided to attempt two TLs at once is still a mystery to me

I had an idea in regard to the French cavalry. I read that prior to the Leipzig Campaign Napoleon brought veteran cavalry over from Spain. This was partly the reason his cavalry preformed better during that battle.

So what if Napoleon pulled cavalry from Spain earlier in time for Lutzen? It might leave Joseph short handed at Vitoria but I think its worth it.

He certainly did this in 1814 and, I suspect, also in 1813. I am not sure this would bring the French cavalry up to anything like full strength for Lutzen and the quality of the horses will remain poor. I can see this reducing the superiority of the Allied cavalry to some extent but probably not enough to achieve parity.

Assuming Lutzen still occurs as IOTL the ground is poor for cavalry, in particular in he "quadrilateral" between the four villages where much of the fighting oo place. a lot of ditches, treelines, gardens, buildings etx which is why the Allies IOTL were largely unable to use their cavallry very much although this helped limit the extent of the Imperial Guard attack (note it was mostly Young Guard at Lutzen.

Then here is the Allied command structure at Lutzen which was a mess to put it mildly.

The French will win at Lutzen and probably could do somewhat better than IOTL but, given the circumstances not decisively by any means/ However, Bautzen has better scope for a more decisive Napoleonic victory if Ney can be made to do a better job on rthe French left. Had he done so a large part of the Russo/Prussian army could be crushed and driven accross the frontier of a still neutral Austria. The rest might escape int Silesia.Chancesof this might be improved if Napoleon wins a smewhat bigger victory at Lutzen. This might at least affect morale on both sides if nothing else

IOTL the Russians were seriously considering a retreat into Poland after Bautzen. If apoleon wins this battle decisively as described above the Russians may actually carry out this retreat. If so Prussia has a problem. Do they withdraw with the Russians which means abandoning Silesia and Berlin? Or do they attempt to hold these areas alone against the might f Napoleon's army? Or does Frederick William, who did not want he war at all, being forced into it by certain Prussian generals. and having met another disaster almost on a scale of 1806, try to save Prussia and the Hohenzollern Dynasty be seeking peace with a resurgent Napoleon while there is still something to bargain with. And will Napoleon, having been "betrayed" by Prussia accept a deal or will he crush Prussia once and for all and remove the Hohenzollern Dynasty from power?

 

[hasdrubal barca]

Like you said the terrain is poor, but additional cavalry might help with scouting. Napoleon in OTL didn't have the situational awareness he wanted.

I think for Napoleon to achieve a better victory at Lutzen he needs to be the one attacking. Napoleon planned to attack on May 3rd, but the Allies preempted him on May 2nd. If Napoleon is allowed to attack how and when he wants i think the allies will be crushed.

Now how do we get the Allies to assume a defence posture around Lutzen? The defeat at Mockern and the threat of a drive on Berlin by Eugene? The Death of Kutuzov and command indecision? The fact that they are outnumbered?

 

[lucaswillen05]

Like you said the terrain is poor, but additional cavalry might help with scouting. Napoleon in OTL didn't have the situational awareness he wanted.

I think for Napoleon to achieve a better victory at Lutzen he needs to be the one attacking. Napoleon planned to attack on May 3rd, but the Allies preempted him on May 2nd. If Napoleon is allowed to attack how and when he wants i think the allies will be crushed.

Now how do we get the Allies to assume a defence posture around Lutzen? The defeat at Mockern and the threat of a drive on Berlin by Eugene? The Death of Kutuzov and command indecision? The fact that they are outnumbered?

Yes, it might prevent Ney's III Corps being caught by surprise as badly as they were and have the other French Corps that fought at Lutzen being closer to the battlefield than they were historically. However you cannot ignore the fact that much if the French army were raw conscripts. I can see Napoleon winning a somewhat more convincing victory at Lutzen but it will not be a decisive one and certainly not a war winner. However, it is still a good POD leading towards a later decisive victory at Bautzen or somewhere in Silesia if the Russo-Prussian army chose to or are forced into fighting another magor battle after Bautzen.

As far as Lutzen itself is concerned I don't feel too many changes are needed. If we have a somewhat better but still inferior French cavalry better French reconnaissance might give a more timely warning of the Allied assault granting Napoleon more time to manouvre his army closer to the antcipaed battlefield of Lutzen. This will result in earlier arrival times and severl more hours before darkness to win the battle. I don't see Wittgenstein's army being broken at Lutzen but they might be more battered than they actually were. They willl be forced to retreat as IOTL but the intiative definately shifts to Napoleon at this point. his could well mean the Allies are forced to fight earlier at Bautzen with less time t fortify the position. You could then have a Bautzen more like the classic Napoleonic battle describe in Chandler's Campaigns of Napoleon. Withou the benefits of the earthworks it will be harder to resist Napoleon's frontal assault over the River Spree. Add to this a decision by Napoleon to more closely oversee Ney's wing assaulting the Russo-Prussian right and we increase the possibility of a more decisive French victory here

Hence we don't have to have he French winning a decisive victory at Lutzen. It could well be that such a victory is more plausible at Bautzen.Lutzen is still going to be your POD leading towards this outcome

 

[Robert Gertz]

“Destruction at Lutzen”: Napoleon wins in 1813 ATL

Part 1:“The health of his Majesty has never been better”

On the night of December 18th, 1812, with his disastrous Russian campaign behind him, Napoleon Bonaparte arrived at the palace of Tuileries. The campaign had shattered his aura of invincibility and left the Grande Armee in shambles, casualties numbered in the hundreds of thousands.

The latest bulletin to the French people, had stated that “The health of his Majesty has never been better”, this however did not tell the whole story. The campaign in Russia had shaken Napoleon. The great conqueror was aged and in somewhat poor health. He was not the same man who took the field nearly a decade ago at Austerlitz. The French Emperor knew that soon enough news of his total defeat would set all of Europe ablaze in revolt and perhaps spell an end for his empire.

The expected Russian advance however was still a few months off and Napoleon still had both time and space on his side, at least for the moment. Could he raise a new army before the Allies assembled for the finishing blow? Did Napoleon still had the fight left in him to stun Europe one last time?

I'd say Napoleon had a good chance to win in 1813 and did win every major tactical battle till Leipzig. Had his lieutenants performed better, say taking Berlin, and he shown a bit of compromise in talks with the wavering Prussian king, Prussia might have given up, unhinging the Allies and causing Alexander to quit in disgust.