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There is a fairly modern river monitor (well, built in 1936) still in service in the Brazilian Navy. The Romanian Navy has river monitors built in the 1990s. A divided USA might have similar vessels on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.

I don't have a source handy, but I have read that the British and French quietly warned the US that an American military incursion into European waters would be greatly unwelcome.

Henry Goulburn, a member of the British delegation at Ghent, explicitly said otherwise: "If we had either burned Baltimore or held Plattsburg, I believe we should have had peace on the terms which you have sent to us in a month at least." If the British goal had been merely status quo ante...

I don't see how you can reconcile this statement with the fact that the British were unable to force their demands at Ghent. Yes, they won at Queenston Heights and burned Washington, among other victories. The US won at Chippewa and burned York, but that doesn't mean that the US won the war...

The British negotiators demanded the US cede eastern Maine, the Old Northwest beyond the Greenville Treaty line, and give up fishing rights off the Grand Banks. Other British politicians wanted the US to cede northern New York and Pennsylvania, give up the right to station warships on the Great...

In 1812, yes. But by late 1814, as the negotiators met at Ghent, the British wanted to hurt the US so badly that it could never threaten Canada again.

The British position in 1814 was that the French sale of Louisiana to the US was illegal because it was made by an illegitimate government--Napoleon's.

This, I think is a far more likely scenario than the US ever accepting a permanent western boundary. The British considered trying to force a return of Louisiana. Although the Americans were considering ceding eastern Maine, shifting the Canadian border south to cut out the Great Lakes, and...

Grant's soldiers simply wouldn't follow his orders in a coup d'etat. I can think of only two scenarios in which the North could have suffered a military coup during the Civil War: if Booth's plot was completely successful and decapitated the executive branch or if the North suffered a series of...

Yes. Also, there would need to be a US army of some sort, even an unofficial one assembled by angry hawkish politicians and soldiers, to attack independent New England comprehensively. Where would this army come from?

I think that in this scenario, the seceding states would be permitted to leave, if only because the federal government would be too politically and military crippled to do anything about it.

The Nullification Crisis comes to mind, so 1832. To have a civil war, you need to have a problem big enough to lead to secession in a time when a national leader would have found it to be unacceptable. Andrew Jackson was certainly willing to march into South Carolina with an army.

This would require a POD prior to May 9, 1945.

Now this is a novel approach. Very interesting.

With a POD after 1844, is it possible for most of the US population to be some flavor of the Latter Day Saints faith by the year 2000?

US gets curb-stomped during the War of 1812 and forced to accept a Native American buffer state in what is now Michigan. Aside from ensuring its territorial integrity, the British have a hands-off attitude as squabbling tribes are eventually able to form a confederation-type government there...

On September 1, 1814, Sir George Prévost crossed from Quebec into New York with 12,000 British soldiers. Royal Navy Captain George Downie trailed behind him on Lake Champlain with several warships. Prévost approached American fortifications at Plattsburgh, which were held by 5,100 Americans...

With a POD of 1960, you have Duke at 10 years old. That's early enough for him to be anything from a conventional conservative in the mold of the Bushes or a progressive like Obama.

Or, alternatively, the War of 1812 ends as OTL, but there's a later war between the US and the UK over the Oregon Country or the border of Maine. The US gets clobbered, there are internal divisions, and a weakened US is unable to bring as much force to bear against Mexico. Another possibility...

I doubt it would go quite that easily. The Royal Navy alone can maim the US economy for a long time. It can do that from Halifax (effectively impregnable), Bermuda, and the Caribbean. The British government would have to be convinced that the humiliation of losing Canada to Cousin Jonathan...