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The US goes to war against the UK over the Oregon and/or Maine boundaries and, defeated, loses access to the Oregon Country. In the resulting political confusion and the festering division over slavery, a civil war or succession crisis results in a permanently divided America. The US never...

Aside from the problems that sloreck listed with the Imperial German plan, I've never been able to find evidence that Germany had the incredible sealift capacity necessary to move that number of troops all in one go. Robert Conroy's novel about that plan was okay, but I'd like to see a better...

Many Vermonters were inclined toward neutrality during the War of 1812. HMS Confiance was actually built with Vermont timber and the British base at Ile aux Noix was supplied, in large part, by Vermont farmers. If the British win decisively during the War of 1812 and, specifically, Prévost...

Robert Shepherd's biography of Enoch Powell is a good read. One noticeable element was how much he loathed and distrusted Americans, going all the way back to World War II. He was convinced that the US was Britain's greatest enemy. It's been a couple years, so my memory is hazy. But I remember...

The British wanted the Americans to cede eastern Maine, but the American negotiators refused. It did, though, take several months for the British occupation forces there to withdraw.

Indeed. As the Constitution guarantees every state protection from invasion, the federal government would be an obvious failure.

Disrupting the rise of a rival power alone might justify the effort.

The British toyed with the idea of requiring the US to return Louisiana to Spain at Ghent, but dropped the matter when they realized it would be futile. Even if the British curbstomped the US and forced a cession of Louisiana, I doubt that they could keep the whole territory demographically...

Given the massive disparities between the US and Royal Navies, I don't see how even that number of frigates could play a significant role unless they are built on the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain. That could make a critical difference during the battles on the Ontario peninsula.

I can't think of any possible major bear-worshipping religion, aside from the Ainu somehow retaining independence and expanding. On this topic, I recommend The Bear: History of a Fallen King by Michel Pastoreau. It's a fascinating look at the bear as a symbol in Western European culture.

The US wanted the British to permanently give up impressment of American sailors; that is, in any future wars, the UK would not impress sailors in any future wars. The US pushed for this provision at Ghent, but Lord Castlereagh refused.

I think that the federal government, which was then a fairly new idea, would collapse and the nation would split. At minimum, New England would be an independent nation. The South, too, might set up its own confederation, assuming that the individual states don't just go their own way. The UK...

Yeah, I don't see any scenario in which the US keeps Canada without Napoleon marching through London. By 1812, that's an impossibility.

To the very end, the British were unwilling to yield on the impressment of American sailors into the Royal Navy, which the American negotiators kept pressing at Ghent. The British might not have wanted an open war with the US, but they wanted to continue their piracy of American shipping with...

I agree. The US may take Upper Canada but won't hold it unless Napoleon remains a serious threat to British interests in Europe. The UK simply won't let it go and the Royal Navy can raid the US coast with impunity, not to speak of destroying US shipping. I think that the best case scenario...

Let's say that the anti-war sentiment is sufficiently strong that President Polk (or an alternate timeline President Clay) decides to only enforce the Texas border at the Rio Grande. California revolts successfully and declares independence. It later joins the Union without Mexican interference.

This is a good start, Odinson. I think that paragraph breaks would help make your story easier to read.

Scott's campaign in central Mexico could have gone very, very wrong, especially when Scott deliberately cut himself loose from his logistical tail. His diplomatic handling of occupied Mexico City was also superb. An incompetent general could have messed up both, leading to a disaster for the US...

I agree. The plan of Imperial Germany to invade the US was delusional because (among other reasons) it assumed the US would simply sue for peace once a major city fell to a seaborne invasion. To answer OP's question directly: I'd say that the UK, if it fully mobilized, could invade and...

Yes, the question requires clarification. It would be possible now to land a token force through merchant shipping (in the spirit of The Mouse that Roared), but it would last only hours until hemmed by the police. How about this as a measure of success: hold a major US city for six months. I'm...