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When he said "the question is whether the USSR will still be there at D-Day or not" that's a pretty clear indication he thinks this'd make Germany win.

That optimum plan requires an army far larger and with a far greater consistent logistical basis than ever existed for the Nazis in 1942 in terms of Operation Blue. Logistics is a bitch, geography is a bitch, both are solidly favoring the Soviets, not the Nazis, here.

Holocaust denial is a good starting point for his being a homegrown American Nazi, as well as his defending Nazi war criminals.

It's not just the restricted focus, it's that capturing the city of Stalingrad is not all that's required to interdict transport along the Volga. When this happened in the Russian Civil War, it was concurrent with other actions on the part of the Whites to remove the prospects of any flank...

The Volga, yes. Stalingrad and its particular portion of it, not necessarily. That is a rather small region to cram in the entire striking force of the drive to the south, and if the Germans just go there and stop, the Soviets will begin a series of counterattacks above and more slowly below...

The Germans then leave themselves exposed north and south to flank attacks and in an obvious trap where the encirclement and destruction of Army Group South is concerned.

That POD requires the USSR to not give its constituent SSRs the ability to secede, or averting the original Soviet borging of those three states in the first place.

I'm talking about the secession of the Baltic states in 1991.

Not exactly. The problem is the specification that any Soviet Socialist Republic can secede and that the USSR's legal reforms opened a great big gaping hole for the Baltic states to move through.

The problem is the specification of the third and fourth categories. Especially with regard to the Baltic states.

7/7 makes this scenario OTL. So....OTL results.

CS strategy, 1864: By comparison to the USA, CS strategic thinking and co-ordination remained under-developed. There was no official CS general-in-chief, the CS department system remained more curse than blessing, the CSA had the difficulty of a government whose sole functional bureau was...

Union strategy, 1864: The new strategy for the Union in 1864 would be one whose overall permutations were somewhat incoherent and self-contradictory. On the one hand the troops in East Tennessee and the Mississippi Valley were to hold to the strategic defensive. On the other hand two columns...

So your resort is to maths while ignoring the points about Hitler's conviction that this'd be a deception operation prior to the landing in Calais and also my point about the Courland Pocket?

The Union High Command in December, 1863: In the wake of the loss of Generals Grant and Thomas, and the crippling manpower losses sustained in the Tennessee front, General Henry Halleck faced a number of major decisions with regard to the command in this vital theater, as well as in all the...

It will certainly be the TL where the CSA collapses and turns the USA into Israel and Palestine up to 121, yes. Whether the Boll Weevil is the cause of the collapse or just the final straw that breaks the camel's back.....

The war in the East, October-November 1863: With Rosecrans sacked, Grant dead, and Thomas killed on the battlefield, as well as the captures of two prominent Union forces, the great Confederate triumphs in the West had their own impact on the East. For one of the first times in the war, the...

Because Dad was born in 1946 and my grandfather would have been one of those killed by Japanese suicide attacks in the wake of Operation Downfall. My aunt and mother were born in 1942.

No, this is too late a POD for that, unfortunately.

Braxton Bragg and the Transfers of 1863: The most significant change in the wake of the Southron victory in the Chattanooga-Knoxville Campaign was that Braxton Bragg was able to transfer Leonidas Polk to the West at long last, with Jefferson Davis, in the immediate afterglow of the shattering...