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If italy declares war. Depending on the POD it may remain neutral or non-belligerent.

Exactly. No Vichy probably means no japanese occupation of Indochina which probably means no US embargoes which means no Pearl Harbor which means no War in the Pacific. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor Japan's 1940 move into Vichy-controlled Indochina...

*worst scenario" ? How about a major german-austrian victory, followed by prussia asking for french help, followed by france intervening on the side of prussia and talking loudly about the rhine border, followed by nationalist-german revolts in rhineland and westphaila and berlin, followed by...

They would also go from being part of an explicitly multinational empire to becoming part of an explicitly non-czech nation state. That´s more than just a change of ruling monarchs. _If_ russia changes sides permanently.

I agree that spending less on the HSF is not enough. One has to combine it with expanding the army. As was mentioend upthread by somebody else, a larger army with middle class officers also means more generals for the nobility. Or buy lots of cars. How would schlieffen work if a couple of army...

Not the worst outcome if it results in peace. The problem is, why should it ? More likely you will see a repeat of the sixties pre-67, until the next round is fought.

It´s not about trembling in fear, it´s about what is good for germany. IMO (with hindsight) the HSF was not good for germany. It increased british concerns and used money that could have been spent on the army. With a significantly smaller HSF just maybe the british empire would not have joined...

The US had integrated the CSA economy and armies within a couple of months after the CSA was defeated well enough to launch a major war in which the previously CSA troops fought loyally for the USA ? You said this germany would not wait years before attacking france. My point was that the...

In other words, this requires a preconceived plan by germany to launch WW1. Split A-H with russia to split the entente, and attack france as soon as possible afterwards. As you mentioned an enlarged schlieffen plan, also attack belgium and thereby the british empire. I believe you seriously...

No. This germany would not cede southy tyrol to italy for example. Hungary would be neutral, but have no reason to ally with germany. Serbia would take bosnia and then aim for the ottoman empire. You assume rússia would get nothing but galicia. Why should russia agree to that ?

Not what I believe: I believe germany and russia would succeed. Very soon after you would have major domestic problems in germany. The czech would be about as happy to be germans as the irish were happy to be british. The austrian voters would not vote nationalliberal or conservative, but...

I still don´t like the pact idea. But you can get something similar with a POD in 1866: the Ausgleich is for 40 years instead of 50 years, so has to be renegotiated in 1906 instead of 1916. Austria and Hungary cannot agree. Hungary declares independence. Civil war between austria and hungary...

If you have something like Fort Sumter okay. But you talk about germany shooting first. I did not read it, but germany turning austria into some sort of german congo just won´t be done. Alsace-Lorraine caused quite a few problems for the reich, and this would be far worse. This germany is a...

And then ? The austrians and czech will get how many deputies in the Reichstag ? You know that most austrians are catholics ? How much will prussian junkers like that ? What about the germans living in areas going from AH to russia ? German minorities were everywhere. Will they like this ? Will...

The entire Abwehr ? Including army intelligence analysis for example ? That would be a _major_ loss of face for the wehrmacht, which would not like it at all. And wasn´t the SD actually fairly small and specialized ? IMO creating the RSHA earlier and incorporating it makes more sense. But even...

Thank you.

Please post them.

And just a few months delay may well mean a major crisis at home over home rule, rebellion in ulster and mutiny in the british army.

Exactly. Nobody did foresee putin. But he did gain power. I don´t really see anything that could reliably prevent a putin for at least several decades. And that would be necessary.

Won´t be enough. Just consider https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances refers to three identical political agreements signed in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994, providing security assurances by its...