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It's only possible for the Japanese to invade under conditions where there is no US embargo. They either would have had to negotiate their way out of the US' bad graces over their invasion of south Indochina or bank on their supplies holding out long enough to tackle the Soviets before...

The original takeover of Manchuria happened quickly and came as a surprise to the Chinese. Large-scale KMT operations there probably were not possible. More vigorous opposition to subsequent IJA nibbling was more feasible militarily but not politically: At that time Chiang's main power base was...

There was an earlier discussion about this from last year. In my opinion it was theoretically possible, but only on the grounds of Tokyo being much more willing to escalate at Khalkhin Gol and the Soviets holding off for fear of starting a general war on the eve of the conflict with Finland...

The Japanese had the strategic advantage of interior lines. Their grouping was far more compact, and thanks to the proximity of the Soviets' only lifeline to European Russia - the TSRR - to the Manchu border they would have been able to isolate and destroy the major Soviet forces one at a time...

The Japanese didn't feel they were strong enough for a general war with China in 1931-33, so an offensive measure undertaken by mid-level officers hoping for ex post facto approval would be countermanded by IGHQ and possibly by the Emperor directly, both of whom would have to deal with the...

I don't think the Japanese would permit an all-out war at that time (the Tanggu truce after the Manchuria invasion demonstrated the Emperor's worry about a full-blown conflict erupting, and they pulled back after the first battle of Shanghai in 1932).

The 82nd Rifle Division fought in the Battle of Khalkhin Gol as part of the 1st Army Group and suffered casualties of more than 50% (5,496 killed and wounded out of a nominal strength of 10,724). In this sense it could be said that it was sent from the Far East, that is, the grouping of forces...

Those troops had a considerable impact both prior to and during the Battle of Moscow, which both directly and indirectly contributed to that city's stand. Off the top of my head, the 82nd Rifle Division (which fought at Khalkhin Gol) was again under Zhukov's command at Moscow and the 20th...

The Soviets dispatched considerable resources from the Far Eastern Front and Trans-Siberian Military District both before and during the German invasion. Even prior to June 22nd, elements of 5 divisions with 57,000 men, 670 artillery pieces, and 1,070 tanks were sent West, and between 22 June...

In 1941 - he said "even when it was filled with good troops."

The Kwantung Army had its own mechanized units in those days, an organic air force, and a large amount of artillery - including powerful fortress guns in Maginot Line-type emplacements near the eastern borders. In training and equipment, it was the best of the Japanese armies and was as...

I'm skeptical the level of infiltration was such that STAVKA had access to a playbook of Allied operational planning, but then again the extent of NKVD spying in the west isn't a subject I'm intimately familiar with beyond the basics. In any event, it would be impossible to conceal the necessary...

I'm not saying the Soviets would win, I'm saying that defeating them would be several times more difficult (infinitely moreso when the political implications of a surprise offensive war are taken into account) than defeating the Germans in the West and Italy was. I don't really see what the...

I was more contrasting the difficulties the Allies would face against the Soviets compared to the war with Germany rather than the other way around; of course the Red Army would have to cope with new battlefield realities, but they would be in a vastly better position to do it compared to the...

Where the Allies were concerned, the Soviet ground forces in contact with them were much larger and better equipped than anything from the above three nations they ever had to fight. The Soviets also possessed a much greater capacity for operational maneuver than the Germans (much less the...

Not at all. The Japanese Empire (including Manchukuo) had a GDP 2/3rds the size of the USSR's in 1938, and in Japan proper per capita GDP was 10 percent greater than it was in Russia (both figures sourced from Harrison tables 1-1 and 1-2). The USSR's advantages in steel and coal productivity...

I'm loving the amount of salt this is generating. It's a different question unrelated to our discussion - then again, German and Italian interference has little bearing on Russia's [in]ability to defeat Japan alone. How? Even removing the temporal constraint of 1937, please explain how the...

With one of the respective powers actually engaged in open warfare with the party that pact was aimed at, a joint pact by Germany, Italy, and Japan similar to the one historically signed would be tantamount to a declaration of war by the former two on the USSR. Maybe the language would be more...

It depends entirely on which side is the aggressor. Historically there was a major scare in 1937 (arising from border tension) that was abruptly resolved when the Marco-Polo Bridge incident led to the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War on July 7th. However, for all their bluster Japan really...

Maybe you could make the pitch to Stalin to use his namesake line as a staging ground for whatever functioning armored and mobile reserves that existed at the time. That way you could still keep a large amount of infantry and artillery near the border while (theoretically) maintaining the...