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  1. Austrian Victory at Königgratz, 1866

    Would the Austrians and their allies be able to follow up on a defeat of Prussia? Could they even make a counteroffensive?
  2. Separated at Birth: America and Drakia

    The Drama have a hegemony lasting only fourteen months. I am terrified to imagine what might happen. (Chinese nuclear rain?)
  3. If World War 2 doesn't happen, how long would Japan have held onto Korea and Taiwan?

    Quite. There were all sorts of potential networks that had only started up before the Pacific War. Agreed that Manchukuo could have become big.
  4. If World War 2 doesn't happen, how long would Japan have held onto Korea and Taiwan?

    I do not doubt that the Japanese government of the time would have loved millions of Japanese to move to Korea. I just think that expectation was unlikely; Korea was not that attractive. What is more likely, I think, is Korean migration to Japan. That had already begun on a large scale before...
  5. If World War 2 doesn't happen, how long would Japan have held onto Korea and Taiwan?

    If Japan did avoid the Second World War, that requires the military factons which took the US into it did not take power. You would have a civilian government, one that would be at least somewhat democratic. Democracies can do terrible things, but a Generalplan Ost is not likely. This is...
  6. If World War 2 doesn't happen, how long would Japan have held onto Korea and Taiwan?

    Manchuria was a prosperous territory with an abundance of land and resources, undergoing rapid industrialization. There was a niche for Japanese migrants. A Korea with a superabundance of labour is not so attractive.
  7. If World War 2 doesn't happen, how long would Japan have held onto Korea and Taiwan?

    How does that follow? Even if you end up with a larger population of ethnic Japanese, why would you get any significant influx to Korea? That peninsula would still be a substantially poorer area than metropolitan Japan, with an abundance of unskilled labour and a rising class of trained native...
  8. Venezuela as a modern day superpower

    There is just no tradition established in Western countries of psychedelic use. There may be groups within Venezuela that do—some Indigenous groups plausibly might—but these are not groups that have been influential. The dictator will be introducing a very novel pattern of drug use to a diverse...
  9. Why in the period 16th to 18th century did Spain not colonize Morocco?

    Ultimately, in order to have even a halfways plausible model for migration, you need to explain why Spain decides to conquer and colonize Morocco. What is the point? The Strait of Gibraltar, as others have pointed out, is too wide to be readily controllable by a power with bases as either end...
  10. Why in the period 16th to 18th century did Spain not colonize Morocco?

    Arguing that carrying capacity of a territory is fixed, unresponsive to economic pressures and changing technologies and shifts in networks of trade and investment and people, is surely a choice. Correct. It is, instead, best read as.a summary of past arguments. A Spain that spends resources...
  11. Why in the period 16th to 18th century did Spain not colonize Morocco?

    That would not be how that migration would work. Among other things, why would Morocco be close to its carrying capacity? Yes, it seems pretty clear that they would have different failures. A POD that would make the Scandinavian kingdoms Hapsburg inheritances would surely make for an...
  12. Why in the period 16th to 18th century did Spain not colonize Morocco?

    Immigrants do not increase populations? Are you saying mortality was so high the deported Muslims and Jews did not leave descendants? 1. I spoke of Morocco, not of the Maghreb generally. 2. A quick Googling suggests the population of Morocco circa 1600 was a bit more than two million people...
  13. PC: French genocide in Algeria

    Low French birth rates, again, were irrelevant in explaining the failure of large numbers of French to move to Algeria. If its low natural increase was responsible for a shortfall in settlers, France was able to compensate ably for this by recruiting and assimilating settlers from elsewhere...
  14. Why in the period 16th to 18th century did Spain not colonize Morocco?

    In the case of Granada, it took almost two centuries for Spain to either assimilate or expel a Muslim population that tended to be a minority. How is Spain supposed to do the same in a Morocco that is not only solidly Muslim in population, but that will have had its Muslim population expanded...
  15. AHC stable Weimar Republic economy

    Wages of Destruction, again, is a brilliant book. It makes the point that the poverty of Germany was not merely a matter of economic cycles working against it, but of an economic lag.relative to most of its neighbours to its.north and west. The United States was a practically unreachable ideals...
  16. AHC: Former Axis Powers return to fascism

    A fascist Italy probably would either not be considered for ESC membership or would wreck the project entirely. There is no possibility of an authoritarian state joining what was intended to be a federation of democracies; Franco's Spain was kept out for that reason. A fascist West Germany, or...
  17. Venezuela as a modern day superpower

    There are no traditions of their use in Venezuela, certainly not on such an institutionalized scale. Expecting this to take off on the say-so of a benevolent dictator is certainly a choice.
  18. Venezuela as a modern day superpower

    Beyond these, I am deeply skeptical of the idea that it would be possible to keep different immigrant populations from being concentrated in different places. The sadly misused term "chain migration" is entirely right: People tend to move to different locations based on their knowledge of...
  19. Venezuela as a modern day superpower

    Also. This is only one of the many radical cultural innovations that I see as highly unrealistic. Is there any country where the use of psychedelic drugs is encouraged in this way? Even a sufficient number of Venezuelan natives could be convinced of this, how would you manage to socialize a...
  20. Gabon became a French department in 1962.

    A French department of Gabon might work out relatively well for everyone, with the Gabonese like the other inhabitants of Overseas France enjoying the economic and social benefits of French citizenship and with France having a large resource-rich territory. The oil will come in handy, I think...
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