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A colony on the Canaries I could see developing a seafaring tradition. But we still need a reson for them to colonize the Canaries. Once they do, it would make a journey to west Africa with its gold much easier.

They need motive. The notion that the discovery of unknown lands means profit and potential is a post-Colombus one. The Romans had plenty of wilderness they never tried to settle that was closer and easier to get to. What makes this different is the question.

Thing is, the Steppe cultures were quite spectacularly successful and not unified. Exactly what made them so successful is debated. I have my guesses. But the fact is, they displaced or steamrolled a lot of cultures. And they fought with themselves a lot. Once they had taken an area, internal...

The Indo Europeans exploded out across the world in every direction. You had people on the borders of Mongolia genetically identical to people in Ireland. Something needs to stop them from expanding into the small European landmass, and it probably needs to be quite strong and lasting for a...

Rome has no shortage of lands filled with barbarians closer to home. West Africa at least has massive amounts of gold.

That was mainly an excuse as far as I know. Norway had wanted independence for a very long time, and the union was doomed barring some really harsh or major POD.

Yes. The Garamantes are limited by the finite amount of groundwater, so there is an upper bound on their success. Steam engines will allow them to go deeper, extract more water, and do it faster. They will build more cities in the desert. And when they run out of water, its going to be pretty...

I think increased raiding is more probable. And the addition of increased strength/population to their desert borders will make striking back at them far more difficult.

Riga was the biggest city in Sweden for 200 years. they had interests on the east coast of the Baltic. And roads can be built.

Things could have shaken out differently at the stage when the Scandinavian kingdoms were consolidating. For example, the Oslo region could have ended up a part of Sweden. Four Crowns.

I saw the title and came in here to suggest the Garamantes. Their main issue is that they are short on fuel too, unless there are coal deposits there I do not know of. they are going to need to learn how to use oil/naphta for fuel. Happily there is a lot of that where they live. Maybe rather...

I had a POD once where the Mongol invasions suddenly made Vinland interesting. Bit of a panic with the Mongols slaughtering people in Europe. Suddenly the remoteness of Vinland became an asset and a draw rather than a dealbreaker. In any case, I can see nations that are not sacked by the...

If a Roman ship got there, any sailor aboard that had sailed the waters of Britain should know about the westerlies. There were a few such in the empire. That would at least give them some kind of strategy for getting back. I mean most likely they'd end up in the doldrums, but with a lot of...

Disease is indeed the 800-pound gorilla here. Maybe a Nepal like hermit Inca state in the mountains. But either some way of dealing with the epidemics is needed, or slowing down European interest significantly.

A surviving Vandal Kingdom means a buffer state for the Visigoths versus the Byzantines and whatever muslim power butterflies allow. It also will be interesting for the Garmantes, who are declining at this time but with a few centuries to go before their final fall. The Garmantes control access...

How different was Norse from Anglo-Saxon at this time really? I expect the languages would be on convergent trajectories rather than divergent ones ITTL.

I think it was assumed to be an island, or a number of islands. The Norse of Greenland hunted narwhal and walrus in Northern Canada, and smelted iron there. They would have been familiar with some of the islands there. i think they would assume Vinland was more of the same.

Yes. This particular strain of salmonella was contagious though. But one of the interesting things (to us, centuries later) about the epidemics was the European missionaries accounts of it. They were trying their absolute best to help and save people. Which with 1500s medical knowledge meant...

Nitpick: A few academics advanced a theory that it was local in origin. Most pointed to the extreme lethality among natives, and immunity of Europeans, and believed it an old world disease. Then they sequenced the genes and it turned out the latter were correct. It was Salmonella.

Yes, but like I said, they were trying to get to places they knew about. Establish new trade routes to old places. They were not just exploring for the sake of it, or looking for stuff to see if there was anything they could turn a profit off. Europeans had always known about faraway places and...