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Good point, Europe really is just a subcontinent. But if it's the "Western World" then is "Eastern World" world comparable? In any case the West is no longer dominant, it was dominant for a relatively brief period historically speaking, East Asia is or will be the leading region soon (unless...

European dominance is a 500 (less than that really) year blip, it is or soon will be Asia again. That being said Death of Kublai Khan is the closest for me. Europe forming more modern style nation states needs to be a likely.

After this 2nd War of Independence (probably not called that of course) is successful? By then the possibilities would be very wide indeed, depending on what happened before...

Could see splitting Texas in a scenario where slave power realizes a civil war would destroy them, and instead they decide to on a long term political fight, one in which they have the Court and often the president on their side (and deadlocking the Senate by various means, like splitting Texas).

Yep. You need quite a different Texas and/or quite a different civil war for Texas not to secede.

The Iraq parallel sinks any chance of something resembling plausibility. Back in the day I wrote a parody - The Man with the Tungsten Toe

Plus it probably wouldn't be north vs. south, but say New York vs. New Hampshire vs. Vermont, Pennsylvania vs. Connecticut, Virginia vs their own settlers in the west, etc.

Generally speaking, the earlier the war the better chances for the south. A breakup during the AoC period is quite possible, but wouldn't necessarily lead to war and at the least might be dissimiliar enough to the ACW that it's not what the OP is looking for.

Ok, who here is the Terrible Writing Advice guy.

A bit of a cheat really.

And nothing else ever comes along that is remotely similar and the gradual processes that were leading to it even without the French Revolution are mysteriously frozen...

Like the old India / Bangladesh border 3rd order enclaves.

March 22nd, 1926. Seriously though... Yes, slavery is very likely to outlive it being "economically viable", due to it's role as a social control system. We might see states or the confederate government running slave programs at a loss, if it become unprofitable for owners (this happens with...

I don't think it does anything to stabilize Mexico (maybe Santa Ana could do something useful with the popularity boost, though I doubt it), and I do think a conflict with the U.S. over Texas is likely (if not immediately than sometime fairly soon).

We're not good at naming wars. The American Revolution wasn't really a revolution (also a war of secession), the War of 1812 is like the less imaginative ever...

A Byzantine Empire doing well might help advancement though.

A Haiti situation isn't really possible due to the difference in the slave systems and especially the numbers and geography.

If reconstruction is enforced better, Mississippi and South Carolina (maybe Louisiana), are majority African American and perhaps they'll see white flight if democracy is upheld.

Stumbled across this one:

What will Britain do when their colonists get into another war with French colonists?