alternatehistory.com

In March 1944, Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin (represented by Molotov) meet again, this time in Dakar. Stalin urges the Western Allies to open a second front in Europe. They think about a landing in Narvik, but decide to scrap the plan. So an invasion in Italy will be implemented instead.

In Russia, the Russians are busy driving the Germans out of their country. During the winter, the Wehrmacht is beaten around Moscow, which is finally free again. After the mud season is over, a big attack is started all along the East front, throwing the Germans further back.

Hitler decides to gamble, takes all the available troops and throws them against Leningrad. The city is besieged for more than a year, and he hopes that if he can take it, many German and Finn troops will be available to stop the Soviets again.

The Germans take Tichwin, making a support of the city via the ice of Lake Ladoga impossible. Then, the full attack by the Germans against the city that had to suffer so much already starts. But the population resists.

Stalin can see that the city is in danger, so he orders to stop the offensives and moves several troops to the North. In July, Tichwin is reconquered; and in August, the ring around Leningrad is finally broken up.

This is no coincidence; about at that time, American troops land in Sicily. For the moment, Mussolini can calm down his opponents; but when the first GIs set their foot an mainland Italy and combined American and British troops push the Axis behind the Suez canal, his time is over, and he's imprisoned. Two weeks later, the new Italian government makes an armistice with the Allies. Germany manages to disarm the troops of its former ally, but when they try to occupy Rome, the Italian partisans make them so much trouble that they have to retreat further back. (ITTL, Germany has less troops available for Italy; although there has been no battle comparable with Stalingrad, the attrition of two years in Russia has hurt the Wehrmacht enough, and the theater in Africa and the Middle East took its toll either. They didn't manage to liberate imprisoned Mussolini, too, so their satellite government in Northern Italy is even weaker.)

While the Americans can't advance that fast in Italy, they still have many successes someplace else: In October, they're in Palestine and cross the border to Lebanon and Syria; and in November, Generalfeldmarschall Erwin Rommel, cut off from any kind of support, has to capitulate with several armies. When Hitler get news of that, he almost loses what is left of his mind. Several German generals start to think of secret negotiations with the Allies. In the Middle East, the status quo ante bellum is restored. Several Arab leaders who collaborated with the nazis are hanged. Many American and especially British troops are now available for the fight in other places (although it'll probably take weeks, if not months, to send them to another front).
One big problem, though: Before the Germans capitulated, they set fire to many oilfields - it will take many months to put them out and even longer to restore everything, and the year of 1945 will be significantly colder...

Meanwhile, the Red Army advances further and further. When winter 1944/45 comes, they have thrown the Germans back behind the Dnepr; but this time, the Germans are better prepared and have made defenses behind the river. For the moment, the Red Army can't advance further. Hitler says that the "fortress Europe" will hold the line, no matter what. And at the moment, this doesn't even seem that crazy...