alternatehistory.com

Time to go back to the Japanese theater. Due to the different war, the Americans have more troops here (but less in Europe / North Africa - in fact, none in Europe at all, except maybe some planes stationed in England to bombard German cities).

Meanwhile many American planes are stationed in China and help them to defend against the Japanese. Japanese operations against China (like the operation Ichigo, the attack against the province of Hunan) are hampered.

Until the end of March, the Americans can conquer the Marianes (incl. Guam) back. East of the Philippines, they fight another big battle on the high sea, preparing the way for the later reconquest of the Philippines. In May, the Americans come as far as Palau archipelago, although the complete conquest will take more than one month.

But already in June - the Americans are now four months ahead compared to OTL - US marines manage to land on Leyte. Two months later, in August, they're at Luzon, and end of September, Manila is liberated. The Japanese situation is way worse - other than OTL, their offensive in China wasn't that successful (although they still managed to get Changsha), and the Americans are close to the Home Islands.

In October, the fight for Okinawa starts, after Iwo Jima fell some time earlier. The Japanese fight harder than ever, and many GIs die. The Manhattan Project unfortunately is far from finished, so that's no possibility.

In the meantime, the Allies also liberated most of Burma (Rangoon is still Japanese-occupied) and Borneo. In November, the Ledo Road is finished (two months earlier than OTL). Now the US can support Chiang Kai-shek with tanks. (Although there'll be no tank fights between GIs and Japanese before 1945.)

Before Christmas, all of Okinawa is occupied by the US. They got no further, though. The next question is: Invade the Home Islands on Kyushu or Shikoku?