alternatehistory.com

Hearts and Minds

As January drew to a close and Japan reeled with diplomatic backlash, the Japanese belatedly realized that with the world's spotlight turned to her - she couldn't continue behaving the way she did - at least not publically. As winter was drawing to a close - The High Command was also making preparations to finally destroy the Peking pocket once and for all. But the sheer number of refugees and civilians were expected to do two things: 1. Slow down the progress of the Japanese arms and 2. Cause negative press - many civilians would be killed and maimed through bombing and shelling and when the Japanese Army finally took the city, the Japanese feared a massacre as frustrated Japanese soldiers took their rage out on defenceless men and women. Neither of the two things were in either Japan's short or long-term interest. Contrary to what later history would portray - it was never in Japan's intention to actually occupy or 'conquer' China, Japan rightly realized that it would virtually be impossible to hold down 500 million people by force. A massacre of Chinese civilians would harden Chinese public opinion against them and prevent any peace deals from being made.

The Japanese also did not want to slow down what would be a very important offensive, especially since the National Revolutionary Army was beginning to mobilize it's forces to try and cut off the Japanese troops. A solution would be to allow the refugees and the civilians to leave the pocket and the city. Although small numbers of refugees and civilians were leaving through Qikou, this was only a small trickle compared to the vast numbers of civilians still in Peking (1-5 million are the figures floated in conventional histories)

However, when the Japanese government attempted to negotiate for the evacuation of the civilians in the pocket, the Chinese government outright refused to talk to them. The Chinese also ignored offers through intermediaries such as the Soviets and the Americans. They were not interested in talking to Japan.

Japan eventually found a solution. They announced that they would 'temporarily allow civilian rail traffic from Peking' to pass by their occupied territories. The Japanese had not destroyed the rail lines of the small portion of China they occupied - utilizing it instead to transport their own supplies - now the Japanese would use the railways as a token of goodwill. There were conditions of course - the Japanese would inspect the trains to ensure that there were only civilians on board - however to prevent further 'incidents' - Japan would leave the adminintration of the evacuation to a neutral third party - perhaps the Americans or the Soviets might like to handle it. Realistically speaking, only the Americans had the people to actually do it and even then they were operating on a shoestring.

Over the objections of the Chinese High Command and even Chiang Kai-shek, Field Marshall Bai Chongxi did one of the bravest acts of his career - he defied authority in an authoritarian regime. Bai organized the evacuation effort with the Red Cross and other American relief agencies. Conditions were desperate in the pocket with malnutrition and starvation beginning to settle in at this point and he felt he had little choice, besides the city could be fought to the death without consideration for the safety and well-being of the civilians. "Let my people go" he said to Chiang, and when Chiang refused he boarded them on trains anyway. By the end of February, Peking was mostly populated by sodliers - but a fifth had refused to go so there was still a substantial civilian component. With winter ending and spring dawning it was nearly time for one of the most bitter battles of the War - the battle for Peking.